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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 350

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 8/28/2006 8:19:56 AM | message detail
And as I fill out brackets with alts...for all of the potential that Sora's division COULD have had, it's like the only division without at least one match that could swing either way.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Haste_2 | Posted 8/28/2006 8:20:54 AM | message detail
Yay, that's at least three new people that picked Claire. Anyway, I think it's not fair to say that Claire must've dropped more than almost any other character, especially considering the last time Jill's x-stat value was based off of a Prince Hayabusa face picture. Also, consider Tidus' weakest x-stat value (in 2K4), which is decently below his 2K2 value: if you measure Claire from there, Claire is actually about as strong as Riku 2K5. I'd take Riku 2K5 over Kairi 2K6 in a heartbeat.

Now I'm starting to worry to have second thoughts about Jill vs. Peach... Jill could've been underrated in 2K4 and perhaps not have lost any ground since then. But, Peach shouldn't be far underneath DK, right?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2006 8:22:33 AM | message detail
I don't see why we have to think Jill is under-rated. Run that one by me again, please.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/28/2006 8:29:03 AM | message detail
She tied Hayabusa as a 14 seed, and Hayabusa went on to get Arabusa'd against Sora. He performed noticeably better against Zero with a ninja pic, and he at least looked like a ninja against Jill. Add to that RE4 and the general REnaissance in the series because of it, and RE impressing in the series contest (just behind Mega Man's percentage on Final Fantasy!), and you have the likelihood of that downwards trend for Jill reversing.
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"Who knew that head wounds bled so much?" ~ Kieran, Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/28/2006 8:30:23 AM | message detail
I picked Claire as well.

But the Luigi/Zero/Kirby fourpack is killing me. I ended up with Luigi for some reason...
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Arc the Lad > Shining Force. Andel DID notice >_> Z1m Zum > Me
ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/28/2006 8:30:26 AM | message detail
I don't see why we have to think Jill is under-rated. Run that one by me again, please.

Hayabusa 2004 - 22.14%
Hayabusa 2005 - 23.75%

Plus, there's that whole Mario/Zero SFF thing. It wouldn't be by a LOT, but Jill COULD be underrated somewhat.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
Who Cares? | Posted 8/28/2006 8:30:37 AM | message detail
and I remember a poll on Namco's site saying Sheena > Kratos

If it's the one I'm thinking of it went more like Kratos > Sheena > Lloyd

And as much as I like Sheena to win that match, I can't see her doing it. With Jill, I could entertain the thought of her beating Chun-Li...can't and wouldn't say the same about Sheena.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/28/2006 8:39:59 AM | message detail
Hayabusa 2004 - 22.14%
Hayabusa 2005 - 23.75%


Pics and random fluctuation, whatever there. I can't say nothing about Mario/Zero, except that I disagree with it...but if it happened, yes, Jill's under-rated a lil'.

I also can't disagree about RE looking better and all, but that's mainly to RE4 and I don't think she's in it. Granted, fan-influx, it shouldn't hurt...I'm just saying it shouldn't help her out much either. Jill should continue to look about how she looked in 2k4, maybe as good as Hayabusa 2k5 if she catches a break from RE4. More than that and I may concede Mario/Zero SFF.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
NewLib | Posted 8/28/2006 8:47:00 AM | message detail
Whats sad is the only RE character that doesnt have a chance to make round 2 is its strongest representative.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/28/2006 8:57:27 AM | message detail
Hey stat guru guys...

Would someone talk to me about Squall vs. Snake.

TCA seems to think Squall can win.

I honestly believe he won't, but the more I think about it, he can.

I think 45% sounds about right...

Most of the fanboy in me wants Squall to win... but there is a small part that says.. .

Squall > Magus > Gannon > Bowser...

I know changes have taken place over time but PLEASE debunk this... before I do something stupid and put Squall over Snake.

Also it is my observation that "hype" =/= a boost. Snake has no reason to boost them. Games however can relate to a boost. Squall then has room to possibley boost.

Please, please show me how insane I am being, with some logic.


KB
NewLib | Posted 8/28/2006 9:01:57 AM | message detail
For Squall to win that match he had to have been boosted by Kingdom Hearts 2 a lot.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Aprosenf | Posted 8/28/2006 9:07:31 AM | message detail
Someone asked earlier about FFVI/MGS3 playership:

Poll 2177 (10/27/2005)
Do you own a copy of Final Fantasy VI/III?

9482 14.06% Yes, the original SNES cartridge
12594 18.68% Yes, the PlayStation remake
7908 11.73% Yes, both versions
15012 22.26% No, but I've played it before
22432 33.27% No, and I've never even played it

TOTAL VOTES: 67428


There's nothing similar for MGS3, but in poll 1825 (11/20/2004), 17.76% of the voters said they hadn't played any of MGS3, GTA: SA, Half-Life 2, Halo 2, and Metroid Prime 2.

As for MGS and MGS2, we have:

Poll 712 (11/13/2001)
Have you ever played the original Metal Gear Solid?

8137 43.49% Yes, I've beaten it more than once
2412 12.89% Yes, I played and beat it once
3816 20.39% Yes, but I didn't beat it
4346 23.23% No, I've never played it

TOTAL VOTES: 18711

Poll 2179 (10/29/2005)
Have you played and beaten Metal Gear Solid?

13037 20.12% Yes, both the original and the Twin Snakes
18736 28.91% Yes, just the original
5125 7.91% Yes, just the remake
10014 15.45% I've played it, but never beaten it
17896 27.61% Nope, it's just not my kind of game

Poll 714 (11/15/2001)
Got MGS2?

991 5.75% Yes, and I already beat it
3654 21.2% Yes, I got it
5267 30.55% No, but I will very soon
5438 31.54% No, I don't want it
1889 10.96% No, it's not out yet where I live

TOTAL VOTES: 17239

Poll 702 (11/03/2001)
Do you plan on getting Metal Gear Solid 2?

2373 14.25% Yes, I've got it pre-ordered
6231 37.41% Yes, I'll likely pick it up
1193 7.16% Maybe, depending on the reviews
1947 11.69% No, I don't want it
4914 29.5% No, I don't have a PS2

TOTAL VOTES: 16658

Keep in mind poll 714 was taken right after the release of MGS2. So, what can we conclude from all this? Not that much, unless your HaRRicH. Playership of FFVI is very high, we already knew that. Playership of MGS went down measurably between 2001 and 2005.

And of course, we all know games != characters, and since there's little useful data about MGS3, we can't read much into Celes vs. The Boss. I've flip-flopped so many times on that match, I still can't decide.
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*Was pwned by Castlevania, Warcraft, Mega Man, Metal Gear, The Legend of Zelda, and Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. contest*
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/28/2006 9:09:19 AM | message detail
Screw it. Here's my new logic. GameFAQs is made up almost exclusively of males. As anyone worth their salt knows, males love blondes. I'm just going to go with the blonde in every match. That means that for Celes vs The Boss, we have... GOD DAMN IT ALL I HATE YOU CEEJ!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 9:10:16 AM | message detail
In AC, he's pretty much the 3rd most prominent character behind Cloud and Tifa.

Vincent falls behind Sephiroth, too. The fact that he has more scenes is somewhat irrelevant when all of his scenes combined are outdone by Sephiroth's final fight at the end of the movie. Vincent does gather a nice fourth, but his role in the movie wasn't really that great -- he appears to save Cloud, he talks to Cloud, he reappears with the rest of the cast to have an ineffective fight with Bahamut-Sin. That about covers his role in the movie. If I had to guess on who gets the most from this movie, it would be Cloud, Sephiroth, and Tifa.

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To save the land of Hyrule, Link must awaken the hero – and the animal – within.
NewLib | Posted 8/28/2006 9:13:09 AM | message detail
I know this was a while ago but Im surprised that being a Ganondorf fanboy is so unusual.

The man has more personality than say ... any other character in the series.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
_Archvile_ | Posted 8/28/2006 9:15:20 AM | message detail
FACT or FICTION Time!!!1

FACT or FICTION: If Claire beats Kairi, she beats Rikku, too.
FACT or FICTION: If Kairi beats Claire, she SFFs her way past Rikku.
FACT or FICTION: Sheena will place above Lloyd in the all-time adjusted standings.
FACT or FICTION: Terra will get over 60% on Kerrigan.
FACT or FICTION: Chun Li has a great chance at winning the Aeon Division.
FACT or FICTION: Squall will more than double Tidus.
FACT or FICTION: Riku will get a higher percentage on Yoshi than Dante.
FACT or FICTION: Ryu will rSFF Mega Man, avoiding a total beatdown.
FACT or FICTION: Ganondorf/Vincent will be the closest Round 1 match.
FACT or FICTION: Sub-Zero will beat Master Chief.
FACT or FICTION: Princess Peach will not make it to Round 3.
FACT or FICTION: The "Sprite Round" will save Aeris from losing to Zelda.
FACT or FICTION: Yuna will be the favorite to win her division (prediction-wise).
FACT or FICTION: Squall's ranking will be undervalued after his match with Snake.
FACT or FICTION: Solid Snake receives a boost.
FACT or FICTION: Crono will beat Sonic with a higher percentage than he beat Mega Man last year.
FACT or FICTION: The Battle Royale will **** up the leaderboard beyond recognition.
FACT or FICTION: The Triforce division winner will have the lowest prediction percentage out of all the divisions.
FACT or FICTION: Nidoran F will not be the lowest unadjusted character in the X-Stats.
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SephirothG: With talent on loan from God.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/28/2006 9:17:37 AM | message detail
FICTION: If Claire beats Kairi, she beats Rikku, too.
FICTION: If Kairi beats Claire, she SFFs her way past Rikku.
FICTION: Sheena will place above Lloyd in the all-time adjusted standings.
FACT: Terra will get over 60% on Kerrigan.
FACT: Chun Li has a great chance at winning the Aeon Division.
FICTION: Squall will more than double Tidus.
FACT: Riku will get a higher percentage on Yoshi than Dante.
FICTION: Ryu will rSFF Mega Man, avoiding a total beatdown.
FICTION: Ganondorf/Vincent will be the closest Round 1 match.
FICTION: Sub-Zero will beat Master Chief.
FICTION: Princess Peach will not make it to Round 3.
FICTION: The "Sprite Round" will save Aeris from losing to Zelda.
FACT: Yuna will be the favorite to win her division (prediction-wise).
FICTION: Squall's ranking will be undervalued after his match with Snake.
FACT : Solid Snake receives a boost.
FICTION: Crono will beat Sonic with a higher percentage than he beat Mega Man last year.
FACT : The Battle Royale will **** up the leaderboard beyond recognition.
FACT: The Triforce division winner will have the lowest prediction percentage out of all the divisions.
FICTION: Nidoran F will not be the lowest unadjusted character in the X-Stats.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
shadow8021 | Posted 8/28/2006 9:17:50 AM | message detail
Still, what has Kirby had over the last year? Squat! Nil! On the other hand, Luigi has had New Super Mario Bros., in which you CAN play as Luigi in 2 player mode. Sure, it's not much, but also look at how Kirby flopped in the Series Contest, when it was PLAIN to see that Metroid COULD NOT SFF anybody, as shown by Pokemon only losing by 7000 votes and by Zelda steamrolling Metroid. Sure, characters =/= games, but I'm saying it's still too early to count Luigi out yet! As for Bowser/Kirby, well, I have NO clue what happened there...
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Character Battle Score: 0/0
Next Pick: lol Samus > Nidoran F
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/28/2006 9:19:40 AM | message detail
I have Luigi beating Kirby, but that's just me. I suck at these contests anyway.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 9:21:08 AM | message detail
...I'm still angry about the Snake/Squall/Tidus four-pack. Extremely angry. Ceej does it to me every year.

Haha! I'm glad you're back because I was waiting for you to see what he did to your characters this year. =p

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To save the land of Hyrule, Link must awaken the hero – and the animal – within.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 9:22:50 AM | message detail
and I remember a poll on Namco's site saying Sheena > Kratos (though it was pretty close).

Actually, as someone who brought that poll here, Kratos was a dominant first and Sheena was a distant second.

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To save the land of Hyrule, Link must awaken the hero – and the animal – within.
Buzzup | Posted 8/28/2006 9:26:03 AM | message detail
FICTION: If Claire beats Kairi, she beats Rikku, too.
FICTION: If Kairi beats Claire, she SFFs her way past Rikku.
FACT: Sheena will place above Lloyd in the all-time adjusted standings.
FACT: Terra will get over 60% on Kerrigan.
FACT: Chun Li has a great chance at winning the Aeon Division.
FICTION: Squall will more than double Tidus.
FICTION: Riku will get a higher percentage on Yoshi than Dante.
FICTION: Ryu will rSFF Mega Man, avoiding a total beatdown.
FACT: Ganondorf/Vincent will be the closest Round 1 match.
FICTION(though there's a possiblity): Sub-Zero will beat Master Chief.
FICTION: Princess Peach will not make it to Round 3.
FICTION: The "Sprite Round" will save Aeris from losing to Zelda.
FACT: Yuna will be the favorite to win her division (prediction-wise).
FICTION: Squall's ranking will be undervalued after his match with Snake.
FACT: Solid Snake receives a boost.
FICTION: Crono will beat Sonic with a higher percentage than he beat Mega Man last year.
FACT: The Battle Royale will **** up the leaderboard beyond recognition.
FACT: The Triforce division winner will have the lowest prediction percentage out of all the divisions.
FACT: Nidoran F will not be the lowest unadjusted character in the X-Stats.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 9:31:19 AM | message detail
By the way, you Ganon > Sonic people, you do...remember this...don't you?

The small difference between the two gets made up by the introduction of one key factor -- Twilight Princess!!

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To save the land of Hyrule, Link must awaken the hero – and the animal – within.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/28/2006 9:33:54 AM | message detail
FICTION: If Claire beats Kairi, she beats Rikku, too.
FICTION: If Kairi beats Claire, she SFFs her way past Rikku.
FACT: Sheena will place above Lloyd in the all-time adjusted standings.
FICTION: Terra will get over 60% on Kerrigan.
FICTION: Chun Li has a great chance at winning the Aeon Division.
FICTION: Squall will more than double Tidus.
FICTION: Riku will get a higher percentage on Yoshi than Dante.
FICTION: Ryu will rSFF Mega Man, avoiding a total beatdown.
FACT: Ganondorf/Vincent will be the closest Round 1 match.
FICTION: Sub-Zero will beat Master Chief.
FICTION: Princess Peach will not make it to Round 3.
FICTION: The "Sprite Round" will save Aeris from losing to Zelda.
FACT: Yuna will be the favorite to win her division (prediction-wise).
FICTION: Squall's ranking will be undervalued after his match with Snake.
FACT: Solid Snake receives a boost.
FICTION: Crono will beat Sonic with a higher percentage than he beat Mega Man last year.
FACT: The Battle Royale will **** up the leaderboard beyond recognition.
FACT: The Triforce division winner will have the lowest prediction percentage out of all the divisions.
FICTION: Nidoran F will not be the lowest unadjusted character in the X-Stats.

---
To save the land of Hyrule, Link must awaken the hero – and the animal – within.
shadow8021 | Posted 8/28/2006 9:34:21 AM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: If Claire beats Kairi, she beats Rikku, too.

Fiction. I can't see Claire getting 44% on Ryu.

FACT or FICTION: If Kairi beats Claire, she SFFs her way past Rikku.

Fiction. Sora/Aeris SFF, anyone?

FACT or FICTION: Sheena will place above Lloyd in the all-time adjusted standings.

Fiction. Too many blowouts in between, Jill/Sheena, Tifa/Peach, Samus/Tifa

FACT or FICTION: Terra will get over 60% on Kerrigan.

Fiction. I say 59% tops.

FACT or FICTION: Chun Li has a great chance at winning the Aeon Division.

Fact. I once had her winning, but even now, I think she has a good shot at upsetting Yuna.

FACT or FICTION: Squall will more than double Tidus.

Fiction. Low 60s/High 50s is where Squall should end up.

FACT or FICTION: Riku will get a higher percentage on Yoshi than Dante.

Fiction. Yoshi/Dante will be down to the wire. Riku won't touch either.

FACT or FICTION: Ryu will rSFF Mega Man, avoiding a total beatdown.

Fiction. As seen in the series contest, MM > RE > SF, so I think MM wins with over 60%.

FACT or FICTION: Ganondorf/Vincent will be the closest Round 1 match.

Fact. EPIC!!!!!

FACT or FICTION: Sub-Zero will beat Master Chief.

Fiction. Whoever brought this upset up is just trying to stir things up. I can see Sub-Zero with a little over 40%, but upset? No way. Although Halo has let me down before...

FACT or FICTION: Princess Peach will not make it to Round 3.

Fiction. I think NintendoFAQs should help Peach squeeze by Jill.

FACT or FICTION: The "Sprite Round" will save Aeris from losing to Zelda.

Fiction. When are people gonna learn that pictures don't make much of a difference? (except maybe in Snake's case)

FACT or FICTION: Yuna will be the favorite to win her division (prediction-wise).

Fact. I still think Chun Li can give her a good run, though.

FACT or FICTION: Squall's ranking will be undervalued after his match with Snake.

Fact. Seeing what Snake has done to Square competition (namely Squall and Sora, Frog was strange), I wouldn't be surprised if he overperforms on Squall.

FACT or FICTION: Solid Snake receives a boost.

Fact, which is why I think he may be able to beat Mega Man this year.

FACT or FICTION: Crono will beat Sonic with a higher percentage than he beat Mega Man last year.

Fiction. This match will be close, due to a Sonic rise and a Crono fall.

FACT or FICTION: The Battle Royale will **** up the leaderboard beyond recognition.

Fact, there is going to be lots of weird crap that goes on in this Battle Royale.

FACT or FICTION: The Triforce division winner will have the lowest prediction percentage out of all the divisions.

Fiction, because Zelda and Aeris are definite locks in that division.

FACT or FICTION: Nidoran F will not be the lowest unadjusted character in the X-Stats.

Fiction. Her "fanbase" should be completely overwhelmed.
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Character Battle Score: 0/0
Next Pick: lol Samus > Nidoran F
consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 9:38:56 AM | message detail
Vincent falls behind Sephiroth, too. The fact that he has more scenes is somewhat irrelevant when all of his scenes combined are outdone by Sephiroth's final fight at the end of the movie. Vincent does gather a nice fourth, but his role in the movie wasn't really that great -- he appears to save Cloud, he talks to Cloud, he reappears with the rest of the cast to have an ineffective fight with Bahamut-Sin. That about covers his role in the movie. If I had to guess on who gets the most from this movie, it would be Cloud, Sephiroth, and Tifa.

I was going to mention possibly 4th behind Sephiroth, but then I just didn't. Well, Vincent got more screen time, but yeah. Sephiroth was more awesome (the most awesome, even).

Boost-wise, you have to keep in mind that Cloud/Sephiroth are less susceptible to boosting. It's like Mario, the more well-known you are, the harder it is to boost from something.

Btw, Kyle: Squall > Snake is just not happening. I'd take Squall over Sonic, Crono, Mega Man, heck maybe even Mario before that. And if you don't believe that Snake SFF'd Squall to hell and back in 2k2, then you are expecting some insane boosting, certainly considering Snake's impressive 2k5 and line-up for 2k7 (if that accounts for anything).

Seriously, the bracket's got some major upset potential, but Squall > Snake is NOT one of them.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955

Indirectly, I'd be baffled to see Squall > Snake. But in a direct match-up? Not. Happening.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/28/2006 9:44:58 AM | message detail
Btw, Kyle: Squall > Snake is just not happening. I'd take Squall over Sonic, Crono, Mega Man,

Wow. Snake is has been pretty consistent in being the weakest of the Noble Nine. No way in hell would I even consider Squall over any of them but Snake and Sonic.

Seriously, the bracket's got some major upset potential, but Squall > Snake is NOT one of them.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=955


If you believe this poll has any bearing on this year you are wrong. You need only look at the boost Squall recieved in 2K3 and he has stayed relativley that high.

If he gets a boost from KHII the way he got from KHI, he would be even more dangerous.


KB
SharpEdgeSoda | Posted 8/28/2006 9:45:47 AM | message detail
I tried a bracket based on the Gamefaqs most popular faqs, and I ended up with Sora for the win, beating sheena, if I had made a bracket on my favorites, sheena would probaly go up against MC, and sheena woud come out on top.
consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 9:50:16 AM | message detail
Wow. Snake is has been pretty consistent in being the weakest of the Noble Nine. No way in hell would I even consider Squall over any of them but Snake and Sonic.

Well that's my point. Snake has indeed been consistently the weakest of the noble nine. Snake SFF'd Squall in 2k2, and he'll do it again this year.


If you believe this poll has any bearing on this year you are wrong. You need only look at the boost Squall recieved in 2K3 and he has stayed relativley that high.

If he gets a boost from KHII the way he got from KHI, he would be even more dangerous.


KB


Oh the results will be closer, no doubt. But he won't come anywhere near threatening Snake. If Snake > Sora is any indication, Snake will be rendering those KH boosts mostly harmless.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/28/2006 9:55:05 AM | message detail
If Snake > Sora is any indication, Snake will be rendering those KH boosts mostly harmless.

Squall > Sora


KB
consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 9:55:45 AM | message detail
Squall > Sora


KB


That wasn't the point, and you know it.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/28/2006 9:56:58 AM | message detail
Then what is your point?

That because Snake beat Sora... Squall's potential boost is null?

That doesn't make sense.


KB
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/28/2006 9:57:34 AM | message detail
Uh, Xic, Lara doesn't and won't face Celes.

*repeated headdesk* I'm confusing my two favourite females. Oh well, the logic I used still carries through to The Boss.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Hi-ho, Hi-ho, Z1m Zum, Z1m Zum...our guru champ.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/28/2006 9:59:25 AM | message detail
FICTION: If Claire beats Kairi, she beats Rikku, too. Claire couldn't scratch Ryu, like Rikku can.
FICTION: If Kairi beats Claire, she SFFs her way past Rikku. I fear that if Kairi beats Claire, Kairi be SFFed down to like 17% on BL and people will claim the match was legit.
FICTION: Sheena will place above Lloyd in the all-time adjusted standings. What do I know?
FICTION: Terra will get over 60% on Kerrigan. Kerrigan will pull a Ness...sort of...she'll just make it close.
FICTION: Chun Li has a great chance at winning the Aeon Division. We'd need to see a lot of change since 2K5 to see that.
FICTION: Squall will more than double Tidus. Well, I don't think Squall has the power to do much SFF.
FICTION: Riku will get a higher percentage on Yoshi than Dante. Riku's a long way from Dante, still.
FICTION: Ryu will rSFF Mega Man, avoiding a total beatdown. There will be no SFF.
FICTION: Ganondorf/Vincent will be the closest Round 1 match. Good chance, but I give that to...Celes vs. The Boss.
FICTION: Sub-Zero will beat Master Chief. Sub-Zero isn't up to DK's level anymore.
FICTION: Princess Peach will not make it to Round 3. I say Jill has a decent chance, though...
FICTION: The "Sprite Round" will save Aeris from losing to Zelda. There will be no sprite round, but Aeris will win, anyway.
FACT: Yuna will be the favorite to win her division (prediction-wise). Nobody in that division will have much bracket support, the so the 1-seed gets the support.
FICTION: Squall's ranking will be undervalued after his match with Snake.
FACT: Solid Snake receives a boost. Everyone knows he's gonna be in SSBO...need I say more?
FICTION: Crono will beat Sonic with a higher percentage than he beat Mega Man last year. No idea.
FACT: The Battle Royale will **** up the leaderboard beyond recognition. The standings in that will not be cookie-cutter.
FICTION: The Triforce division winner will have the lowest prediction percentage out of all the divisions. Sonic's division will probably have the lowest.
FICTION: Nidoran F will not be the lowest unadjusted character in the X-Stats. Well, either Nidoran F or Daisy...I'm kinda thinking Daisy, though.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 10:00:08 AM | message detail
Then what is your point?

That because Snake beat Sora... Squall's potential boost is null?

That doesn't make sense.


KB


My point was that, much like Squall, Snake SFF'd Sora pretty badly. This will, like I said, render the boosts harmless. Noticeable, but harmless.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/28/2006 10:03:59 AM | message detail
My point was that, much like Squall, Snake SFF'd Sora pretty badly. This will, like I said, render the boosts harmless. Noticeable, but harmless.

Nice assumption... but it has yet to been how Snake will handle KH Squall.... and it has yet to be seen how Squall will handle KHII Squall.

I am just trying to find some factual evidence to suggest with high probability that Squall CANT win this match (Anything is possible right)...


KB
Tai | Posted 8/28/2006 10:04:26 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 10:13:37 AM | message detail
Nice assumption... but it has yet to been how Snake will handle KH Squall.... and it has yet to be seen how Squall will handle KHII Squall.

I am just trying to find some factual evidence to suggest with high probability that Squall CANT win this match (Anything is possible right)...


KB


I wouldn't worry about it (bracket-wise).

Also, if hype ever accounted for anything, it will be now. Super Smash Bros Brawl? Metal Gear Solid 4 (which is nearing, what, 2,000,000 downloads now at gametrailers? Good stuff)? Hell, even Portable Ops looks great.

It doesn't get much better than this.

But even if the hype won't do anything, the odds are so crazily against Squall it's not even funny. Another thing is he'll be fighting off bracket votes. Snake is a huge bracket favourite.

So even if Squall fights off all this SFF, hype, and bracket votes (which is REALLY unlikely), there's still the fact that he's simply weaker.

Seriously, taking Squall in a serious bracket is just not justifiable, even if he is your favourite character.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 10:20:00 AM | message detail
Man I'm really loving FFVII's top 50 placement. 13? Niice. It's placed higher (well, lower) than the recently released FFIII DS (in Japan, but that didn't stop FFXII from attaining #1 at that time). Then again, so is FFX.

Meh, Square for the win!
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/28/2006 10:22:05 AM | message detail
I'm trying to figure out what I think of the Battle Royale (other than Samus dropping out first, of course), and it's tough. I wish we'd have seen a Cloud/Crono or Sephiroth/Crono match, to see if Crono would get SFF'd or not...the best we have are FFVII/CT and Crono/Vincent, which send completely opposite signals.

Hm. So, question for everyone. After Twilight Princess, Cloud will be lucky to nab 45% on Link. Assuming a three way Link/Cloud/Seph poll, it's obvious that Link gets a plurality of the vote. But would he get a majority (or get close to it)? Are there a fair amount of people with something like Sephiroth > Link > Cloud as their preference?
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/28/2006 10:28:02 AM | message detail
Also, if hype ever accounted for anything, it will be now. Super Smash Bros Brawl? Metal Gear Solid 4 (which is nearing, what, 2,000,000 downloads now at gametrailers? Good stuff)? Hell, even Portable Ops looks great.

Does Advent Children from last year ring a bell???


But even if the hype won't do anything, the odds are so crazily against Squall it's not even funny. Another thing is he'll be fighting off bracket votes. Snake is a huge bracket favourite.

Bracket votes dont usually amount to much.

So even if Squall fights off all this SFF, hype, and bracket votes (which is REALLY unlikely), there's still the fact that he's simply weaker.

He is weaker??? Ok I know he is... BUT...

Explain this to me so even I, a Squall Fanboy, will understadn.

Squall > Knuckes by 7.6%

Knucles > Magus by 1.5%

Magus > Gannon by .6%

Gannon > Bowser by 1.5% (according to their match vs. Sephy)

Which places Squall above Bowser, statistically by more than 1.2%

Then we have last years match.

Snake > Bowser by1.2 %

Logic is screaming Squall can't win... but these numbers say otherwise.


Seriously, taking Squall in a serious bracket is just not justifiable, even if he is your favourite character.

Which is why I have Snake... at least for now.

KB
consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 10:29:24 AM | message detail
Hm. So, question for everyone. After Twilight Princess, Cloud will be lucky to nab 45% on Link.

I beg to differ. Cloud has AC and KH2 as well, remember. Well, the real who-gained-more battle will be between PS3, DoC, FFXII, AC, KH2, FFIIIDS and Wii, TP.



Assuming a three way Link/Cloud/Seph poll, it's obvious that Link gets a plurality of the vote. But would he get a majority (or get close to it)? Are there a fair amount of people with something like Sephiroth > Link > Cloud as their preference?

I'm actually really sure that he would not get a majority. Cloud-Sephiroth just seems so devoid of SFF. Link will win that easily, of course. But not with a majority.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/28/2006 10:32:29 AM | message detail
The Battle Royale hurts my head, too. I don't think it matters if Crono would get SFFed by Cloud or Sephiroth, as I think few people would call Crono their "favorite" character. I'm wondering the same thing about Mario, as well, though surely to a lesser extent. I mean, Mario couldn't even beat Yoshi in the latest Mario Series poll (did Mario even manage 2nd?). Of course, the poll probably attracted primarily Mario fans. It seems like Samus would actually be a favorite to more people than either Mario or Crono, but Mario losing before Samus seems so very wrong... On another note, if Snake was in the battle royale, I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up in the Top 3.

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consolefreak | Posted 8/28/2006 10:37:55 AM | message detail
Does Advent Children from last year ring a bell???

You mean the leak? I have discussed this. I never, before or after, thought the leak would do much hype-wise. You really can't compare this to MGS4 and Snake in Brawl. He'll at the very least get some Nintendo votes over Squall: SSBB + MGS: TTS > KH: CoM.


Bracket votes dont usually amount to much.

That's a hard statement to back up. I mostly agree, but in a match that is in the absolute worst case scenario, for Snake, close, it can very well make the difference (not that there will be a difference to be made). It's just another thing to consider.


He is weaker??? Ok I know he is... BUT...

Explain this to me so even I, a Squall Fanboy, will understadn.

Squall > Knuckes by 7.6%

Knucles > Magus by 1.5%

Magus > Gannon by .6%

Gannon > Bowser by 1.5% (according to their match vs. Sephy)

Which places Squall above Bowser, statistically by more than 1.2%

Then we have last years match.

Snake > Bowser by1.2 %


Logic is screaming Squall can't win... but these numbers say otherwise.


You can't be serious, right? You're taking KH Squall, hello there Knuckles, Magus' strongest incarnation and you're putting that against a match in which Bowser did some savage overperforming.

You're messing with all the numbers to give Squall a narrow victory, still ignoring SFF, bracket votes and hype.

You know you can make Riku triple Ganon if you want, right?


Which is why I have Snake... at least for now.

KB


Good.
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/28/2006 10:37:58 AM | message detail
Link > Cloud > Seph > Mario > Male (Crono/Mega Man/Sonic) > Female (Samus) just seems far too cookie cutter for such a weird poll. I want to mix it up, but I'm not entirely sure how. My heart tells me Mario > Seph, and my head has no idea how Crono will do, which makes me nervous.
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"Who knew that head wounds bled so much?" ~ Kieran, Fire Emblem: Path of Radiance
charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2006 10:41:43 AM | message detail
Well remember back in 2k2 and 2k3 many people thought Sephiroth was stronger than Cloud (because of some poll IIRC). So Sephiroth > Cloud might be a good pick.
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NewLib | Posted 8/28/2006 10:42:06 AM | message detail
Kyle stop using stats that involve Magus please. Unless you really feel that the guy who did a percent better than Bowser on the same opponent within 3 days (Ganon) could not close within 60% on Snake (something Knuckles was barely able to do) when Bowser had lost 50.59-49.41.

We need a PMFCTSUSF (Party Members From Chrono Trigger Screws Up Stats Factor)
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/28/2006 10:49:19 AM | message detail
I have the battle royale in the order it "should" be - Sonic, then Samus, then Mario, Sephy, Cloud, Link.

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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/28/2006 10:51:57 AM | message detail
Oh, by the way, how far do you trust Ganon and Bowser's match against Sephy?
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NewLib | Posted 8/28/2006 10:53:13 AM | message detail
In their overall strength, not at all. In their strength in relation to each other, a lot.
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