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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 350

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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/27/2006 9:37:38 PM | message detail
The Objection fad is about, what, 10% the size of All Your Base Are Belong To Us?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2006 9:40:11 PM | message detail
I take Auron to win that fourpack handily.


TuRtLe
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lol Z1mZum | BSE Contest final score: 61 pts
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for Character Battle V
Gamer SDP | Posted 8/27/2006 9:40:20 PM | message detail
tag
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creativename | Posted 8/27/2006 9:41:11 PM | message detail
The Objection fad is about, what, 10% the size of All Your Base Are Belong To Us?

I'd say much less than that.

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marioinblack | Posted 8/27/2006 9:42:27 PM | message detail
A good sum of the people that participate in this contest yearly know Freeman's history and will vote against him just to see him lose.

Plus the objection site will likely post a link up for the match, it should be expected that more people will vote than nominate due to the fact you don't have to register to vote.

The problem with my assumption is how many people registered multipule times to nominate PW more than once. That will be interesting.

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/27/2006 9:44:30 PM | message detail
If it wasn't for Auron, that four-pack would be much more interesting...feed Alucard somebody like, say, Kefka, and suddenly Alucard/MC is debatable and more casual brackets could go down (Kefka AND Master Chief in the same four-pack...better believe it if Alucard won it).
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Big Bob | Posted 8/27/2006 9:46:05 PM | message detail
I have a few upsets in my bracket that remind me of my thought process during the series contest...

WC > GTA
LoZ > FF

Both of those I picked because "They don't logically make sense, but they just FEEL right."

Thanks to Stephen Colbert, I'm refusing to change my following picks:

The Boss > Celes
Amy Rose > KOS-MOS
Phoenix Wright > Gordon Freeman
Ganondorf > Vincent
Zelda > Aeris
Sonic > Crono
Sonic > MM/Snake
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/27/2006 9:46:17 PM | message detail
A good sum of the people that participate in this contest yearly know Freeman's history and will vote against him just to see him lose.

I think even more voted FOR him just so he could win, and we both ultimately know there's too many other votes to let either factor mean much more than ****.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 9:50:12 PM | message detail
I can't wait to see the board vote. It'll be crazy.

Phoenix Wright - 90%
Gordon Freeman - 10%

<_<
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
RPGuy96 | Posted 8/27/2006 9:51:23 PM | message detail
I wish very much that Auron wasn't in that four pack, so I could pick Alucard to win it...but Auron did 3% on (possibly stronger) Ganondorf, and 4.5% better on a (probably weaker) Sephiroth. Kingdom Hearts II trumps Dawn of Sorrow, and Alucard goes out in the first round. Hmph.

On a side note, now that Knuckles can't win a match and Gordon Freeman will, who will become the 1)the weakest character to win a match every contest (Ryu?) and 2) the strongest character to lose a match every contest (CATS?).
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Dekar TKB | Posted 8/27/2006 9:53:25 PM | message detail
Claire>Kairi (60%)

I see Kairi being pretty damn weak, personally. Claire should at least be among the upper echelon of fodder.

Celes>The Boss (65%)

I just can't see The Boss not being weaker than Big Boss, and I can't see Celes being far behind Terra.

Amy Rose>KOS-MOS (10%)

This match is similar to Crash Bandicoot vs KOS-MOS, except Amy is most likely weaker than Crash.

Cortana>Joanna (25%)

Maybe I shouldn't underestimate the Halo fanbase, but...It's pretty much just the single player Halo fanbase for this match. Does that even exist?

Riku>Yoshi (5%)

Possible, but very unlikely.

PW>GFNW (35%)

It depends on how effective Objection really is at increasing PW's power. Honestly, I kind of think it might cause some anti-votes against PW, to go along with any vote s it helps bring. That said, I'd give PW a 1% without the site.

VV>Ganon (55%)

I think Vincent was stronger than Ganon last contest, and I think he has more room to improve. Definitely a match either can win, though.

Luigi>Zero (20%)

Zero has always looked stronger than Luigi. I don't think he'll be any weaker this season.

Alucard>Auron (.01%)

Not happening.

Sub-Zero>MC (5%)

I guess?

Jill>Peach (25%)

Peach is still an unknown, so the percentage can't be too low. I'm confident in her winning, though.

Dante>Yoshi (49%)

This match is evil.

Ganon>Sonic (15%)

If he gets by Vincent, AND TP comes out on time, he'll have a CHANCE to win.

Kirby>Luigi/Zero (45%)

Another very close one. I just don't trust Kirby enough to give him the win.

Bowser>Crono (.01%)

Moving on.

MC (Sub-Zero)>Auron (Alucard) (1%)

Auron at his weakest can probably take out MC. This year will be Auron at his strongest, and MC at his weakest, most likely.

Aeris>Zelda (45%)

Very possible.

Chun-Li>Yuna (40%)

They're close on the stats, and...Eh. I just have a gut feeling that Chun-Li is stronger than she looked last contest. Yuna is still the favorite, though.

Yoshi>Snake (.01%)

No.

Luigi/Kirby/Zero>Sonic/Ganon/VV (.01%)

Not happening.

Snake>Mega Man (1%)

Better than .01!

Sonic/Ganon/VV/Luigi/Kirby/Zero>Crono (10%)

If Ganon takes Sonic, he has a good chance of taking Crono.

Mega Man/Snake>Crono/Sonic/Ganon/etc (20%)

Just don't see any reason for that big a Crono drop-off.

Male Winner>Samus (48%)

Can go either way.
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Dark Ninja1521 | Posted 8/27/2006 9:54:10 PM | message detail
Who do you guys have for Ganondorf/Vincent? I picked Vincent.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2006 10:08:11 PM | message detail
I just thought: Who should get the bracket support in PW vs GF?
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 10:17:22 PM | message detail
If he gets by Vincent, AND TP comes out on time, he'll have a CHANCE to win.

A very good chance. Twilight Princess being out would be enough for me to not worry at all when the match starts.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 10:19:06 PM | message detail
I just thought: Who should get the bracket support in PW vs GF?

Gordon Freeman. He had most of the brackets against Leon last year.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 8/27/2006 10:27:02 PM | message detail
And as ashamed of it as I am, one of those was mine.

I wish I knew of GFNW before making my bracket =(


TuRtLe
~~~
lol Z1mZum | BSE Contest final score: 61 pts
Nominate Carmen Sandiego for Character Battle V
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 10:27:47 PM | message detail
I wish I knew of GFNW before making my bracket

...

Or you could have just realized that Leon was going to be far more than fodder.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 10:29:00 PM | message detail
I believe that this is the first contest in which Gordon is actually the seeding underdog. Ironic that it's also going to be the first contest in which he wins a match.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/27/2006 10:35:13 PM | message detail
I'm fairly sure he was the 10 in the 7-10 match he had with Max.

~*ST*~
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/27/2006 10:35:37 PM | message detail
Never mind, he was 7.

~*ST*~
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 10:36:37 PM | message detail
He was the seeding underdog in his match vs Fisher.
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Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
transience | Posted 8/27/2006 10:41:51 PM | message detail
I've also looked at Boss/Celes as being similar to Big Boss / Terra. Big Boss and Terra have near-identical x-stat values if you assume a tiny bit of SFF in Samus/Ganon. the thing that put me over the edge is that Celes is going to get some ugly Amano art. sure, it's technically part of Terra's x-stat value, but I just think that when people don't care about either character, they'll vote for the one that looks cooler. Amano art pretty much assures you're not going to look cooler.

Phoenix and Gordon is shaping up to be this year's match that people fight over, like GTA/WC. the people on Gordon's side are saying that it's really obvious and that no one has ever played PW while the Phoenix people are like LOL GFNW OBJECTION GFNW OBJECTION. I think Phoenix will do better than uber-fodder and that GF is a little overrated in the 2k5 stats, but that Gordon will be able to pull it off. I don't care to debate the match at all though because there's just nothing to say.

Phoenix Wright's wikipedia page mentions the date of the match against Freeman. I get the feeling there's going to be a lot of rallying all over the place from Phoenix Wright's camp. they're just nuts about him and the game.
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"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 10:43:18 PM | message detail
I don't care to debate the match at all though because there's just nothing to say.

That's how I feel.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
marioinblack | Posted 8/27/2006 10:45:03 PM | message detail
Is there any debate on Lara Croft/Chin-Li or is Lara a clear favorite?

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/27/2006 10:45:59 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright's wikipedia page mentions the date of the match against Freeman. I get the feeling there's going to be a lot of rallying all over the place from Phoenix Wright's camp. they're just nuts about him and the game.

I'm helping the cause. Against my own bracket.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 10:46:00 PM | message detail
I don't get why everyone thinks MGS3 is so popular on this site. Have we seen anything that implies it would even be as strong as MGS2?

He was the seeding underdog in his match vs Fisher.

Hmm, seems you're right. *sigh*
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 10:47:53 PM | message detail
I don't get why everyone thinks MGS3 is so popular on this site. Have we seen anything that implies it would even be as strong as MGS2?

The fact that it isn't nearly as openly hated, despised, has a better gameplay to storyline ratio, is considered to have universally better gameplay, you play as 'Snake' for the entire game...

...why are you questioning this in the first place?
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/27/2006 10:48:49 PM | message detail
Hey, remember that time I said OoT wasn't popular? Yeah.
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 10:49:27 PM | message detail
oh man, that OOT thing was one of my favourite moments in stats topic history.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 10:50:12 PM | message detail
Hey, remember that time I said OoT wasn't popular? Yeah.

Say what? I missed this; when did it happen?

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/27/2006 10:50:42 PM | message detail
See, HM has the right idea. It never happened.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 10:52:08 PM | message detail
"Zelda lost because her picture was from OoT, after all we all know no one really likes that game." -- partystar
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 10:52:35 PM | message detail
The fact that it isn't nearly as openly hated, despised, has a better gameplay to storyline ratio, is considered to have universally better gameplay, you play as 'Snake' for the entire game...

And it was still a flop. You could argue the same about Beyond Good and Evil as compared to MGS2 (except for Snake...), but I'm not expecting BG&E to beat MGS2, because BG&E was a flop, just like MGS3.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 10:52:35 PM | message detail
...

XD

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/27/2006 10:52:59 PM | message detail
Have we seen anything that implies it would even be as strong as MGS2?

3 has gotten two complete side characters to the MGS series (three if you really want to count Ocelot) into contests. 2 has gotten uh.... Ocelot?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
transience | Posted 8/27/2006 10:53:30 PM | message detail
Raiden?
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 10:54:28 PM | message detail
And it was still a flop. You could argue the same about Beyond Good and Evil as compared to MGS2 (except for Snake...), but I'm not expecting BG&E to beat MGS2, because BG&E was a flop, just like MGS3.

What in the blue blazes are you talking about? What could possibly make you believe that MGS3 'flopped'?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 10:54:46 PM | message detail
Also: there are TONS of people who like MGS2 more than MGS3, particularly for the gameplay. Most people didn't like injuries at all, and camouflage changing was incredibly irritating.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 10:54:49 PM | message detail
Raiden?

Not exactly a side character.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 8/27/2006 10:55:22 PM | message detail
No one's mentioned the vast difference between MGS 2 and 3 on DA LIST yet?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 10:55:52 PM | message detail
What in the blue blazes are you talking about? What could possibly make you believe that MGS3 'flopped'?

The sales, perhaps?

3 has gotten two complete side characters to the MGS series (three if you really want to count Ocelot) into contests. 2 has gotten uh.... Ocelot?

Which two?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 10:57:11 PM | message detail
I would definitely wager that MGS2 is the weakest MGS game. MGS3 would fit somewhere in between MGS and MGS2, but probably closer to two.

... But in the world you came to the conclusion that MGS3 flopped or is generally more liked than MGS2 is beyond me. MGS3 was just more accepted overall.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 10:57:30 PM | message detail
The sales, perhaps?

You -- you know what, you're not even worth discussing this with. There's a reason that MGS3 sold less, yes -- and that reason is MGS2.
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 10:57:45 PM | message detail
oh, I thought he meant that MGS2 had only seen Ocelot make the contest.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
dethfdddddh | Posted 8/27/2006 10:58:47 PM | message detail
And MGS 3 was sandwiched in with Halo 2 and San Andreas, I believe.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 10:59:24 PM | message detail
The sales, perhaps?

You mean the sales of MGS3 that exceed a million copies sold in America?

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 10:59:37 PM | message detail
You -- you know what, you're not even worth discussing this with. There's a reason that MGS3 sold less, yes -- and that reason is MGS2.

Really? It has nothing to do with launching at the same time as MP2, GTASA, HL2, Halo 2, etc?

And even if people didn't buy MGS3 because of MGS2...THEY STILL DIDN'T BUY MGS3! I don't see how that makes MGS3 stronger.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 11:00:34 PM | message detail
You mean the sales of MGS3 that exceed a million copies sold in America?

Indeed. Now, how do those compare to, say, MGS2?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/27/2006 11:01:01 PM | message detail
But I'm out of here. *sigh* Starting work at 12:15 sucks.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 11:02:34 PM | message detail
MGS3 is better liked among those who DID buy it, which is virtually all that matters here. MGS2's sales don't mean jack when put up against MGS (which it actually outsold), because it would get absolutely obliterated. It's the same thing with MGS3. It won't be on MGS's level by a longshot, but it should easily have enough juice to do in the black sheep of the series.
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