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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 349

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WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/27/2006 12:50:22 PM | message detail
Got Ganon right now, but yeah... it's just a really tough pick. Could go either way.


It really isn't. I will be chocked of Ganondorf does not win that match.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/27/2006 12:50:42 PM | message detail
Zelda/Aeris and Jill/Peach are the only matches that have made me pause.

Those are no-brainers! KOS-MOS/Amy, Chun-Li/Kasumi, Celes/The Boss, and Lara/Alyx are the hardest. And that's only round one.
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WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/27/2006 12:50:51 PM | message detail
That's how shocked I will be... That I won't be shocked anymore, I'll be chocked!
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:51:10 PM | message detail
Chief/Sub-Zero is my #2 pick. Riku/Yoshi just seems to have all the ingredients necessary for Squall/Luigi 2, however.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:52:32 PM | message detail
Except SquareFAQs.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:52:51 PM | message detail
Zelda/Aeris and Jill/Peach are the only matches that have made me pause.

I just went over the Zelda/Aerith bit in another topic, but to go over it again here...

If you look at that match, many would say that if Twilight Princess is out by the time of the match (November 3rd), then Zelda is going to clearly be the winner, which makes sense. Now, even if it doesn't make it (I would almost think it's unlikely it won't release around then), Zelda 2k5 is stronger than Aerith 2k3 -- Zelda wins with 51.33%.

Now you could certainly make a case for Aerith increasing these past few years through more recent things like KH2 and AC, even in the face of the Nintendo Boost. But given this site's clear preference to Nintendo as of late, the very real possibility of Twilight Princess releasing, and the fact that if Aerith were stronger, it's by very tiny margins makes Zelda a safer pick in this case.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2006 12:53:05 PM | message detail
I'm not sure if Sub could pull that off. Sub would have to be equaling DK. Anyone think Sub is THAT much more popular than Scorps?
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consolefreak | Posted 8/27/2006 12:53:27 PM | message detail
Wow. Err. *ceiling, *beating
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Menji76 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:53:29 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Terra Branford and Sarah Kerrigan is a tough pick?


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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:53:41 PM | message detail
Now Jill/Peach is brutal ... >>

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:54:04 PM | message detail
Hmmm...I wonder who will win the Magus award this year (i.e, entrants who people have high expectations for, but end up bombing hard).

2002 - Gordon Freeman
2003 - Luigi
Games - Kingdom Hearts
2004 - Viewtiful Joe
Villains - Kuja
2005 - Magus
Series - Grand Theft Auto
2006 - ?

I'm guessing Gordon Freeman will be winning this award for the second time, though there are other possible worthy candidates.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/27/2006 12:54:38 PM | message detail
Yes.
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The *only* good thing about this contest is that Ceej might share with us the split between female/male nominations for Samus. ~creativename
Dekar TKB | Posted 8/27/2006 12:55:01 PM | message detail
I'm placing my money on Kairi to win that award, if anyone does.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/27/2006 12:55:11 PM | message detail
I'm guessing Gordon Freeman will be winning this award for the second time

He's going to destroy PW, he can't take that award.
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The *only* good thing about this contest is that Ceej might share with us the split between female/male nominations for Samus. ~creativename
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:55:46 PM | message detail
I really, really, really wish Peach had a stronger opponent than Jill, so everyone could get burned by not picking Peach.

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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 8/27/2006 12:55:55 PM | message detail
From: WilhuffTarkin
Got Ganon right now, but yeah... it's just a really tough pick. Could go either way.


It really isn't. I will be chocked of Ganondorf does not win that match.


Vincent would have really had to overperform on Crono to be considered a lot weaker than Ganondorf.

Also, no one is debating female matches 'cause we have no stats on them >_> I think there will be a lot of surprises on that side though.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:56:36 PM | message detail
.Also, no one is debating female matches 'cause we have no stats on them >_> I think there will be a lot of surprises on that side though.

Probably just as many as the Villains, if not less.

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WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/27/2006 12:58:13 PM | message detail
I don't think Vincent is a lot weaker than Ganondorf. It will be a tough match. But I'm surprised anyone thinks that Ganondorf won't win in the end.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:58:35 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright is another possible candidate for that award, and if he loses to Gordon, he'll definitely win it (he'll go down as the one guy who let the universe implode).
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2006 12:59:59 PM | message detail
Anyone think Yoshi/Dante and Ganon/Vincent go hand-in-hand?
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 1:00:17 PM | message detail
Vincent would have really had to overperform on Crono to be considered a lot weaker than Ganondorf.

A lot weaker? Even looking at the stats without considering the possibility of Ganon being SFFed (which I consider likely), Vincent wins that match with 52.71%. The distance between them is not large.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 1:00:25 PM | message detail
I don't think Vincent is a lot weaker than Ganondorf. It will be a tough match. But I'm surprised anyone thinks that Ganondorf won't win in the end.

"Oh, yeah, that's a real tough match...wait, you think ______ will win?! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA YOU FOOL"

That doesn't make any sense...
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consolefreak | Posted 8/27/2006 1:00:28 PM | message detail
I don't think Vincent is a lot weaker than Ganondorf. It will be a tough match. But I'm surprised anyone thinks that Ganondorf won't win in the end.

Really? I'm surprised about statements like these, myself.

Stat-wise, Vincent 2k5 is stronger than Ganondorf has ever been. I'll admit that I take Ganon > Vincent in 2k5 in a close one. But come on. AC + DoC versus nothing?

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 1:01:09 PM | message detail
Anyone think Yoshi/Dante and Ganon/Vincent go hand-in-hand?

Nope. I have Dante & Ganon, but I have to admit I'm thinking about switching to Yoshi.

Also, if we get straight female matches to start this contest off, how craptacular are the votals going to be?


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consolefreak | Posted 8/27/2006 1:01:31 PM | message detail
A lot weaker? Even looking at the stats without considering the possibility of Ganon being SFFed (which I consider likely), Vincent wins that match with 52.71%. The distance between them is not large.

Dammit HM!
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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:01:42 PM | message detail
I'm placing my money on Kairi to win that award, if anyone does.

I had Claire yesterday, but I've since switched it up and won't be switching back. Claire's only stats value is from 2002, and it's obviously waaay off. Just how in the heck can Claire be 3% stronger than Jill mere months after REMake? Jill is Resident Evil's main lady, and she just had a big Gamecube released that April. It makes no sense.

Also, hasn't Claire been completely absent from gaming for five years? I don't think she's had a single thing since Code Veronica X, which was released in 2001.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 1:01:46 PM | message detail
Anyone think Yoshi/Dante and Ganon/Vincent go hand-in-hand?

As someone who currently has Yoshi > Dante and Vincent > Ganon, hell no. Aside from Yoshi being an easy pick for me, Vincent's actually had a bunch of stuff since 2k5, unlike Dante.
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WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/27/2006 1:02:01 PM | message detail
That doesn't make any sense...

Er... I think you misinterpreted my statement. It will be a tough match as in the result will be a close one, but I'm surprised that people expect Vincent to win.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:02:31 PM | message detail
Also, for your consideration, is the Starcraft award (for entrants who have unexpected and/or great runs through the bracket).

Past Winners:
2002 - Scorpion/Crono
2003 - Magus
Games - Starcraft
2004 - Frog
Villains - Diablo
2005 - Vincent Valentine
Series - Castlevania
2006 - ?
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 1:02:39 PM | message detail
Since I made my bracket, the only thing I've changed is from Claire > Kairi to Kairi > Claire.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/27/2006 1:03:58 PM | message detail
Also, for your consideration, is the Starcraft award (for entrants who have unexpected and/or great runs through the bracket).

Kasumi.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 1:04:14 PM | message detail
Also, I'd be willing to bet that DMC:SE does more for Dante than AC does for anyone starring in it. Not like there is going to be anyone to actually distinguish this, but meh. I hate talk of an AC boost, especially when it was already leaked during last contest and did apparently nothing, and that's when the hype around it was high.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 1:04:34 PM | message detail
2003 - Magus
2004 - Frog


You must mean Squall and Sora there.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 1:04:51 PM | message detail

Er... I think you misinterpreted my statement. It will be a tough match as in the result will be a close one, but I'm surprised that people expect Vincent to win.


Yeah, totally. Those 51-49 matches are always locks.

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 1:04:52 PM | message detail
Zero gets the Starcraft award!
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 1:05:09 PM | message detail
Solid Snake 54.41% 58421
Zelda 45.59% 48941
TOTAL VOTES 107362

Aeris Gainsborough 46.98% 50241
Sonic the Hedgehog 53.02% 56701
TOTAL VOTES 106942

Aeris's performance is more impressive to me. I probably take Aeris if TP isn't going to be out.
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Redtooth | Posted 8/27/2006 1:05:20 PM | message detail
I like how Magus is on both of those, and even named after one of them XD

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WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/27/2006 1:06:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, totally. Those 51-49 matches are always locks.

*shrugs* It makes sense when you think about it.
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:06:14 PM | message detail
It isn't just for unexpected wins, though I'll include Squall and Sora under 2003 and 2004 respectively alongside Magus and Frog.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 1:06:36 PM | message detail
I read that almost entirely wrong...whoops! But, good grief one does not have to be a lot weaker to lose the damn match. >>

But come on. AC + DoC versus nothing?

If the Nintendo Boost continues as a result of Nintendo's dominant performance at E3, then he may be able to see something slight...but I'm not banking on it. What I do doubt is DoC's ability to do much of anything given how poorly the game is received overall. This is not entirely from critics, but the FFVII fans who have played the game and thought it was awful.

Now Advent Children is a tricky situation...but I'm rather confident in Ganon pulling it out. I have not yet gone and done the research needed to have something to really counter this yet, but it'll be coming soon!!

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:06:39 PM | message detail
Past Winners:
2002 - Scorpion/Crono
2003 - Squall/Cloud
Games - Starcraft
2004 - Sora
Villains - Diablo
2005 - Vincent Valentine
Series - Warcraft
2006 - ?

That's how I feel. I also considered putting Knuckles instead of Vincent for 2005, but Vincent did have three wins.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 1:06:51 PM | message detail
Aeris's performance is more impressive to me. I probably take Aeris if TP isn't going to be out.

If you buy basing stats of base link, 2K5 Snake takes out 2K3 Sonic pretty easily.

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consolefreak | Posted 8/27/2006 1:07:52 PM | message detail
Also, I'd be willing to bet that DMC:SE does more for Dante than AC does for anyone starring in it. Not like there is going to be anyone to actually distinguish this, but meh. I hate talk of an AC boost, especially when it was already leaked during last contest and did apparently nothing, and that's when the hype around it was high.

You have to be kidding if you consider AC sold about 6 times as much as DMC: SE (plus, it's a movie: of the +55% of people that have watched AC, only like 25% actually bought it).

I wouldn't account for the leak to do much of anything.

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"The blood of the weak shall be the ink with which we scribe great Yawgmoth's glorious name." - Stronghold architect, journal.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 1:08:05 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm not a fan of Sonic being underrated in 2k3. In addition to getting doubled up by Cloud, his matches against Zero and Aeris also point to a thoroughly lackluster year. Snake probably beats Sonic in 2k3.
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Pikawil100 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:08:28 PM | message detail
I mean theres a new game comin out on the DS(I dunno if hes in it though >_>)

Sort of... as a Live Metal or something that allows the player to transform into his MMZ form.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:08:30 PM | message detail
I would've put Warcraft over Castlevania, but really, I think Castlevania did a lot more than we gave it credit for. It walloped Halo and kept it close with Kingdom Hearts for half a day before ultimately falling apart.

All Warcraft did was barely beat GTA and get blown off the face of the earth by Mario.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 1:08:31 PM | message detail
Aeris's performance is more impressive to me. I probably take Aeris if TP isn't going to be out.

Only if you believe Snake in 2k5 to be that much weaker than Sonic 2k3...which he wasn't. Zelda 2k5 is stronger than Aerith 2k3 by a bit. But there just isn't that much in favor of Aerith in this match, I don't think. Everything is more advantageous to Zelda.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Pikawil100 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:10:21 PM | message detail
what games are even launching for the PS3?

Genji 2 is a ashun game... *fills in the rest* ...massive damage!
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 1:11:36 PM | message detail
personally, I'd pick Sonic over Snake every year we've had a contest.

Aeris has more of a reason to go up in my opinion than Zelda. (this, of course, assumes no TP.) I don't see why Zelda would be any stronger this year than she was the previous year besides a continued Nintendo boost. Aeris at least has things like KH2 and AC.
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GavHarrison316 | Posted 8/27/2006 1:11:51 PM | message detail
I think The Boss will go far.
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