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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 349

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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:26:49 PM | message detail
GameFAQs 'warming up' to the Wii? I wasn't aware it could get any more pro-Wii.

Prior to E3, the Playstation 3 was "winning" the next-gen console polls. Things have really changed in the past four months.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:27:35 PM | message detail
I had Luigi coming out of his pack all of yesterday until I started to think more about what Zero has done. He has been ridiculously impressive since he got into the contest. Even with the Nintendo Boost and Luigi's potential to boost again, it's hard to pick against someone who has been so impressive for so long.

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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:27:45 PM | message detail
Luigi dissappoints all too much though also.

I mean, I hope that isn't the deciding factor in minds of Zero/Luigi. I know precedents mean nothing, but Luigi just can't come up strong when he needs to (or when a large part of the board thinks he will), ie. Squall and Yoshi.




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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:28:07 PM | message detail
It all changed as soon as "599 U.S Dollars" came into the picture.

-Hiko
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therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2006 12:28:42 PM | message detail
What if Zero vs Mario was legit though? It reminds me of the Tidus situation.

With Tidus, people were just stuck on him underperforming, even though there was pretty much no reason for him to underperform besides sticking to his 2k3 x-stats value. Zero has reason to underperform on Mario based on Link SFF'ing Mega Man, and Mega Man SFF'ing Yoshi. The Mega Man/Mario franchises have shown to have a fan overlap.

And then you have to take into account that we really hadn't had a lot of data on Tidus. Zero has proven his strength numerous times.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:29:24 PM | message detail
Why do people always talk about "releasing on the day of the match" when talking about miraculous victories that would need substantial boosts to occur to make it happen? I've always thought it silly, wouldn't it be better if it was like, say a week after it came out or something, and people actually got a chance to play it?

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warning_crazy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:29:27 PM | message detail
Two things.

Zero>Kirby

Wheres guru sign ups?
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:29:46 PM | message detail
If we were to have Luigi/Kirby it'd be a near-impossible-to-predict SFF-fest. WIth Kirby thrown in vs. Zero, well you can go the Nintendo way and go for Kirbs, or you can look at 47/48% on Sonic and think.... would Kirby get 47% on Sonic?

....He did on Bowser.


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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:30:03 PM | message detail
I had Luigi coming out of his pack all of yesterday until I started to think more about what Zero has done. He has been ridiculously impressive since he got into the contest. Even with the Nintendo Boost and Luigi's potential to boost again, it's hard to pick against someone who has been so impressive for so long.

My Kirby > Luigi > Zero pick is looking better and better !!

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:30:13 PM | message detail
With Tidus, people were just stuck on him underperforming, even though there was pretty much no reason for him to underperform besides sticking to his 2k3 x-stats value.

What do you think the odds were of Tidus and Shadow not only being overrated, but proportionally massively overrated?

There's more to it than you make it seem.
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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:30:57 PM | message detail
I had Luigi coming out of his pack all of yesterday until I started to think more about what Zero has done. He has been ridiculously impressive since he got into the contest. Even with the Nintendo Boost and Luigi's potential to boost again, it's hard to pick against someone who has been so impressive for so long.

Zero has proven to be good with some form of SFF as well. And it could totally be to his advantage in this next contest. I mean theres a new game comin out on the DS(I dunno if hes in it though >_>), his got his own spinoff series thats fairly succesful on the GBA, MMXC, he spans multiple consoles...all good reasons for consistency. Whereas Luigi's most recent endeavor includes being able to play as him after you beat New Super Mario Bros.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:31:01 PM | message detail
Why do people always talk about "releasing on the day of the match" when talking about miraculous victories that would need substantial boosts to occur to make it happen? I've always thought it silly, wouldn't it be better if it was like, say a week after it came out or something, and people actually got a chance to play it?

By all means, think Crono > Cloud in 2k2.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/27/2006 12:31:16 PM | message detail
I must be the only one on the whole board seriously stuck on Chun Li/Kasumi.
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:32:24 PM | message detail
EC, I'd say that the biggest site fluctuation is a day or two after a game comes out. everyone who greatly anticipates the game will have bought it on release day and the game always shoots up the FAQ list on that day. yeah a week would probably yield the same result, but one or two days is fine as well.

speaking of which, I think the #1 thing to think about is release dates. KOS-MOS gets a game on Wednesday, you're looking at FFXII launching around the end of round 2 and I have no idea what's up with Nintendo.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:32:29 PM | message detail
what I mean is....

Kirby got about 47% on Bowser.
Zero got about 47% on Sonic.

Bowser vs. Sonic is hard, but I still gotta go with the Noble 9 pick. So that would mean Zero would be a little stronger than Kirby, but that's all assuming that there was no SFF in either match (and there would be MUCH more against Kirby than against Zero in those 2 cases, and that's why I like Kirby over Zero).
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:32:39 PM | message detail
I've always thought it silly, wouldn't it be better if it was like, say a week after it came out or something, and people actually got a chance to play it?

If you have a copy of that game in your hands -- a game you have been highly anticipating for years -- anyone associating with that game is going to get your vote just out of pure hysteria of having it. Added to that, everyone who would be coming to the site that day would be doing so for one reason -- that game. Their minds would be on nothing else but what's related to that game, and if they happen to be in a match...

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:32:50 PM | message detail
By all means, think Crono > Cloud in 2k2.

Oh I know the whole SMS thing, but I can't help but think Mario would have done even better if the poll was taken a couple days later. And still, lol 2K2, but yeah.

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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:33:28 PM | message detail
I must be the only one on the whole board seriously stuck on Chun Li/Kasumi.

Well, that's gotta suck if you pick that wrong, cuz neither's gonna lose to the Female Gordon Freeman.


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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:33:59 PM | message detail
Oh I know the whole SMS thing, but I can't help but think Mario would have done even better if the poll was taken a couple days later.

Hey, crazy thing here. That's when Mario/Crono I took place!
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:34:41 PM | message detail
I have no idea what's up with Nintendo.

We'll find out right after the brackets close. =p

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:35:16 PM | message detail
I swear to god if Nintendo reveals the launch date on September 11th, I'm not buying a Wii. >_>

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:36:38 PM | message detail
I have no idea when the Wii is going to launch either...there are a LOT of people that seem to be damn sure that it's guaranteed to be coming out mid-contest, but I've heard late October/early November/um...Winter 2006 floated around everywhere. When is this contest projected to end, again?
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:37:26 PM | message detail
what I mean is....

Kirby got about 47% on Bowser.
Zero got about 47% on Sonic.

Bowser vs. Sonic is hard, but I still gotta go with the Noble 9 pick. So that would mean Zero would be a little stronger than Kirby, but that's all assuming that there was no SFF in either match (and there would be MUCH more against Kirby than against Zero in those 2 cases, and that's why I like Kirby over Zero).


Also, respondign to myself here, I forgot to mention Zero's stuff was 2K3 and Kirby's was 2K5. Kirby is on the rise, most def. because of teh well-liked-ness Canvas Curse and maybe a few more games coming out, and maybe some SSBB footage of Kirby also... (like, it's hard to vote agaisnt for someone who looks so happy cooking a Mario Stew)
Zero has probably hit his strongest point, since the MMX series is kinda done for the most part. (But MMXC could help, but I think that's past).


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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:37:46 PM | message detail
It'll be closer to September 14th, but yeah, we're not going to find out during the bracket making part of the contest.

Judging from what I've been told and what I've read, it's looking very soon. Nintendo just got the final hardware out to everyone and their likely already starting to manufacture units en masse.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 8/27/2006 12:38:15 PM | message detail

Well, that's gotta suck if you pick that wrong, cuz neither's gonna lose to the Female Gordon Freeman.


I'm sure. I'm even somewhat confused about Lara/Alyx. >_>
Isn't Alyx like really important in HL2?
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:38:28 PM | message detail
I have no idea when the Wii is going to launch either...there are a LOT of people that seem to be damn sure that it's guaranteed to be coming out mid-contest, but I've heard late October/early November/um...Winter 2006 floated around everywhere. When is this contest projected to end, again?

19th I believe.... that's going by the PS3 releasing on the 17th, and someone saying the contest was ending 2 days after the PS3 release. I didn't actually do the work.

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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:38:55 PM | message detail
I hate to rely on guesswork on launch dates for making a bracket.. but then again, I said the same thing about relying on WoW rallying and that kicked me in the ass.
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:39:27 PM | message detail
what games are even launching for the PS3?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:39:28 PM | message detail
lololol tuesdays
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:39:31 PM | message detail
I dunno. I think Alyx is Gordon's gir-....wait....


She is a major character, iirc Steiner's topic.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:39:34 PM | message detail
but I've heard late October/early November

That's what you're looking at right now. I'm banking on it being late October. Interestingly, Nintendo almost always releases their systems on either a Sunday (almost always) or Saturday...which is October 28th!!

Triforce Ganon for the win.

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therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2006 12:39:55 PM | message detail
Okay, I'm rusty at extrapolating. How would you go about extrapolating how much Zero would get on Mega Man by comparing their performances on Tommy Vercetti? I don't like using Base Link for direct comparisons...

Zero/Vercetti - 61.84/38.16
Mega Man/Vercetti - 66.86/33.14
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:40:13 PM | message detail
what games are even launching for the PS3?

RIIIIIIIIIIIDGE-RAAAAAAAACER!!!

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:41:06 PM | message detail
The contest begins on September 12th; the contest ends on November 19th.

Key dates ...

-- Nintendo Wii launch/TP release
-- Final Fantasy XII release (October 31st)
-- PlayStation 3 launch (November 17th)

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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:41:17 PM | message detail
I was waiting for that. :)

as for Ganon, I just think it's hard to move when you're already that strong. I think Sonic wins that match going away and that it won't be close.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:41:22 PM | message detail
That's what you're looking at right now. I'm banking on it being late October. Interestingly, Nintendo almost always releases their systems on either a Sunday (almost always) or Saturday...which is October 28th!!

Triforce Ganon for the win.


Jesus Christ HM... you have no idea how much you're wanting to make me take Ganon > Sonic, but I know it'll bite me in the ass, like all your other crazy shenanigans.

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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:41:58 PM | message detail
heh, the ps3 launches two days before Cloud / Link?
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:42:41 PM | message detail
and there's the potential that we'll have FF12 and the PS3 out and no Twilight Princess / Wii? that's... interesting.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:42:53 PM | message detail
I doubt it'll do anything. This site seems to be massively anti-PS3 at this point. FFXII releasing near Link/Cloud would have me thinking, though.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:42:55 PM | message detail
as for Ganon, I just think it's hard to move when you're already that strong. I think Sonic wins that match going away and that it won't be close.

Yeah. Link and Mario sure haven't moved by three percent anytime in their contest careers!!

That match is going to be insanely close no matter how you slice it, and when you throw TP into the mix, it's hard to argue that Ganon has no chance.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:43:41 PM | message detail
and there's the potential that we'll have FF12 and the PS3 out and no Twilight Princess / Wii?

Not a chance. Wii is launching before PS3. There is no doubt about that one.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2006 12:44:19 PM | message detail
Zero/Vercetti - 61.84/38.16
Mega Man/Vercetti - 66.86/33.14


I have about 43.43%.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:45:42 PM | message detail
I'd picture Vercetti being a lil' weaker in 2k4 than 2k3 as well, especially considering what Max Payne did to him. I've never let go of Zero potentially scoring a tiny bit of rSFF on MM.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 8/27/2006 12:45:57 PM | message detail
The three matches I'm really debating over:

Yoshi/Dante: I have Yoshi right now, a total gut pick. Plus I think NintendoFAQs may propel him to victory.
Kirby/Zero: Kirby, same reason as Yoshi.
Ganondorf/Vincent: Got Ganon right now, but yeah... it's just a really tough pick. Could go either way.

I did have Luigi over Zero, but the more I thought about it and looking at Luigi and Zero matches, Zero is the obvious choice. Luigi would need a pretty big boost to win I think.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:47:15 PM | message detail
So, which match do you guys picture as possibly being the Knuckles/Magus or Squall/Luigi of 2006? For me, it's Riku/Yoshi. Man, that would be amazing.
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:48:24 PM | message detail
heh, interesting how there's almost no debate on the female side. Zelda/Aeris and Jill/Peach are the only matches that have made me pause.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2006 12:48:37 PM | message detail
I'd picture Vercetti being a lil' weaker in 2k4 than 2k3 as well, especially considering what Max Payne did to him. I've never let go of Zero potentially scoring a tiny bit of rSFF on MM

Oh, I was just going for the method. I'm not exactly using that for anything. I just forgot which values you use. Tommy definitely got weaker over the years. That's pretty much confirmed by looking at Mega Man's and Crono's performances on him within the span of two years.
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Draco1214 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:49:18 PM | message detail
Nah, it won't be Riku/Yoshi even if Riku wins. There are a few people talking about the idea of a Riku upset. It has to be something no one sees coming.

I'd say Auron/Alucard or Master Chief/Sub-Zero have that potential.
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consolefreak | Posted 8/27/2006 12:50:00 PM | message detail
Zero/Vercetti - 61.84/38.16
Mega Man/Vercetti - 66.86/33.14


You'd put MM at the cealing with 50%. That gives Vercetti an Xs of 33.14.

Getting 61.84% on a 33.14 Xs gives you an Xs of 43.42% (weaker*50 / stronger = % <=> stronger = weaker * 50 / %), which is what he would get on MM then.

So yeah @ mario beaten me but hey if you want the explanation.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:50:09 PM | message detail
So, which match do you guys picture as possibly being the Knuckles/Magus or Squall/Luigi of 2006? For me, it's Riku/Yoshi. Man, that would be amazing.

It wouldn't be so much as a Knux/Magus as it would be a Magus, but I'd have to go with Ganon. He's the only one I could see really plummeting beneath any of our expectations.

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