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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 349

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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 11:57:27 AM | message detail
it's been 24 hours and I still don't know what the board consensus is. it seems like Luigi/Kirby/Zero is a 33/33/33 split and Yoshi/Dante is giving me absolute nightmares.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 11:58:46 AM | message detail
Yoshi/Dante is so hard because Yoshi is right in the middle on the Mario hierarchy, and Dante we dunno if hes increased, decreased, or is just gonna stay the same strength.
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I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 11:59:19 AM | message detail
One of his matches with Samus was extremely close (lost by less than 50)

lol 2k2

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:00:01 PM | message detail
it's been 24 hours and I still don't know what the board consensus is. it seems like Luigi/Kirby/Zero is a 33/33/33 split and Yoshi/Dante is giving me absolute nightmares.

Silly tranny, that only adds up to 99.

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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:00:48 PM | message detail
I was waiting for that, EC. I actually expected KH to say that.

we all know that Heroic Mario never makes up his mind.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:00:54 PM | message detail
I'd struggle with Dante/Luigi, but I can't bring myself to even second-guess Dante/Yoshi. Yoshi shouldn't have the gap between him and Luigi decreased at all. Like I said before, I'm more scared for Snake/Yoshi (weird Wii boost?) than Dante/Yoshi.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/27/2006 12:01:07 PM | message detail

As much as I hate generalizations, the people who are fans of Master Chief were probably the same kids that bough MK1-3 in order to watch the bloody Fatalities and such. Bizarre-SFF FTW.


The kids who bought MK 1-3 to watch bloody fatalities are out of grad school now...
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:01:35 PM | message detail
As much as I hate generalizations, the people who are fans of Master Chief were probably the same kids that bough MK1-3 in order to watch the bloody Fatalities and such. Bizarre-SFF FTW.

I really doubt that. First of all, Halo came out about a decade of years later than MK, not to mention both game series are completely different genres, and Halo isn't nearly as gory as the MK fatalities. Sure theres a lotta alien blood, big whoop. Can you take out a damn Covenant's spine? I don't think so >_>
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I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:03:01 PM | message detail
has Yoshi ever impressed against an opponent with strength that isn't Mario? we all know the famous Nintendo poll and how Yoshi does unusually well. any strength we draw off of him is because of his relationship to Luigi.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:03:23 PM | message detail
Actually I had MK 1-3, and I've never liked Halo enough to really get into it. The multiplayer can be fun with a few friends, but other than that, meh. That generalization really doesn't make a whole lotta sense.

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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:04:00 PM | message detail
actually, I guess Yoshi hasn't really gotten a match with a non-Mario character. I just get the feeling that he'll be relegated to side character. I also can't see Yoshi getting 46% on Vincent.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:04:09 PM | message detail
Yoshi rSFFed Luigi, you ignorant fool KH! (Go Dante, Go Dante, Go!)

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2006 12:07:09 PM | message detail
I think Dante is a bit overrated, not much, but overrated nonetheless.

The only thing that worries me in Yoshi vs Dante though, is that Yoshi could have rSFF Luigi.. maybe.

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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:07:25 PM | message detail
Yoshi's just had bad draws in terms of getting non-SFF matches, and even then he's shown he's a force to be reckoned with. If he maintains the percentage he got in 2k3 with Bowser he's a smidge under Dante...and that assumes no SFF and that Dante isn't overrated (which is the real big key for me here). There's the match with Luigi, as we all know. And the rest is stuff that's hard to gauge like Conker, Laharl, Pac-Man, Ryo Hazuki...you get the point.

I suppose you can say Yoshi's unproven looking at it from that angle, but I'd argue Ganon is more or less the same way .
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:07:58 PM | message detail
the thing that worries me is how bent on Nintendo GF is right now. I have this sense that picking against Nintendo in a debatable mass is bracket suicide.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:08:39 PM | message detail
Also, is it just me or are the snubs of this year getting complained about too much? So people like DK, Pacman, Magus, and Knuckles didn't make it, big whoop. DK was practically a lowcarder before the Nintendo boost, Pac-Man can barely win a match over anybody, Magus was proven to have fallen when Knuckles bested him, and Knuckles needs to just chill for a year, get a big rally next year, and get a nice 2 or 3 seed, and he'll be in good position to actually do something past the 1st round for once. Sure the female bracket is full of fodder, but practically the only guarantees we have in it are the dominant roles the 1 seeds, Aeris, and Peach will have in it. Zelda/Aeris is pretty up in the air too.
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I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2006 12:09:22 PM | message detail
About Phoenix Wright... one thing that he does have going for him is that he has the namesake of his game. Now his game may not have sold a lot, but it is at least a known name among DS gamers. That alone is enough to get a chunk of votes over the likes of Gordon Freeman. I can see many voters logging on and going, "Hey, that's the guy from that lawyer game". You don't need to have bought or even played the game to vote for a character, something that a lot of people overlook.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:09:50 PM | message detail
there is a ridiculous amount of complaining on the board lately. if there's no contest, people complain. if nominations are open, people complain. if there's no bracket, people complain. if there's a bracket, people complain. if someone loses, people complain.

dunno what prompted it.. maybe board 8 is just becoming a whiner's paradise.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:10:02 PM | message detail
the thing that worries me is how bent on Nintendo GF is right now. I have this sense that picking against Nintendo in a debatable mass is bracket suicide.

Unless its Zero. The guy will never quit. He'll start spittin Rising Flames at ya, then jump on Kirby and Luigi's back and slash em up >_>
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I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2006 12:11:38 PM | message detail
The kids who bought MK 1-3 to watch bloody fatalities are out of grad school now...

Hey, I'm just getting into grad school. Thank you very much! =P
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:11:50 PM | message detail
The game isn't popular, the fad will be more or less meaningless, and PW will be bottom of the barrel fodder. If CATS were facing PW, the entire board would be all over that, and we know it. It's the concept of GFNW that keeps people from picking Gordon, and not much more.

That's precisely how I feel.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:12:16 PM | message detail
I haven't got done reading the past stats topic yet, or any of this one since I started posting, but what the crizzunk is with the female winner facing off against the male winner, and then both of them going into the gauntlet?

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:12:20 PM | message detail
I'd be willing to wager a HELL of a lot of people have heard of 'Max Payne' here than Phoenix Wright, he shares the namesake of his game, and that didn't stop him from having the worst performance on Gordon Freeman out of any of his competitors.

People are really stretching here for someone who, if on the PS2, would be touted as a Neo-Tanner.
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:12:27 PM | message detail
no, I think the reasons for picking against Zero is almost entirely Nintendo Boost. no way in hell does anyone make a Luigi > Zero pick in 2k5. picking Kirby is believing that nothing weird happened in Kirby/Bowser.

and as for Ganon, he did beat Auron. that's a lot more than Yoshi can say.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/27/2006 12:12:40 PM | message detail
SephyG wanted me to post this since he's out of posts.

ChesterAArthur2 (3:06:05 PM): I played MK and many, many 18 year olds play Halo
mrbneat00 (3:06:28 PM): it's still a pretty weak generalization
ChesterAArthur2 (3:08:19 PM): It's the fact that they are both the "mainstream hits" for their generation. People that generally do not play RPG's, people who find Nintendo games to be too "kiddy" are likely to be playing Halo, GTA, and (for the 32 bit era) Mortal Kombat.
mrbneat00 (3:08:49 PM): That's what I asid
mrbneat00 (3:08:51 PM): said*
mrbneat00 (3:08:54 PM): they're both "cool"
ChesterAArthur2 (3:09:10 PM): I'm not saying the SFF will be huge, but it should be enough to prevent things from getting too close.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:13:29 PM | message detail
I think the battle royale idea is pretty cool. massive unpredictable SFF. can you imagine what happens if it's like 4.5% to 4.7% and there's an hour to go? I have no idea how that plays out.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:13:40 PM | message detail
Except Auron is almost in the exact same boat as Yoshi is. Yay having an unreliable value for an entire contest career!
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dethfdddddh | Posted 8/27/2006 12:13:43 PM | message detail
Pfft, Max Payne was a favorite to win 2k2!

>_>;
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RPGuy96 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:14:09 PM | message detail
no way in hell does anyone make a Luigi > Zero pick in 2k5

Hmph.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:14:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, I too like the idea of a battle royal, I'll just be pissed if I have a perfect bracket going into it, and I lose it in there (not gonna happen, but I may as well ***** while I can!)

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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:14:41 PM | message detail
you can call "unreliable x-stat value" all you want, but there's a clear difference between Conker and Laharl and then Auron.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:15:26 PM | message detail
you would have? well, I guess you did pick Luigi to beat Tifa..
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:15:28 PM | message detail
no, I think the reasons for picking against Zero is almost entirely Nintendo Boost.

Whose to say his consistency year after year can't overcome two of the weaker sides of Nintendo in Kirby and Luigi though? And the "Nintendo boost of doom!" has to wear off eventually...

-Hiko
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I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2006 12:16:06 PM | message detail
Hey, I didn't say Phoenix Wright was going to WIN! I just wouldn't be so fast to call him ultimate fodder. King fodder should suffice! I'd probably take him over Laharl if anything... <_<;
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:16:30 PM | message detail
put it this way - a year and some ago, some people thought KOS-MOS / Luigi had the potential to be close. Luigi has boosted through the roof and is now taking on a character that put 47% on Sonic.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:16:49 PM | message detail
Except Auron is almost in the exact same boat as Yoshi is.

It's not really so much something deal with the stats as it is the competition. Taking care of Auron with 54% of the vote is far more impressive than anything Yoshi has done.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/27/2006 12:17:20 PM | message detail
put it this way - a year and some ago, some people thought KOS-MOS / Luigi had the potential to be close.

BALROG'D

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:19:13 PM | message detail
Eh, I'd struggle to call a Auron/Yoshi match (pre-KH2, naturally). That's around the level where I think Yoshi can hang, and really I wouldn't give a second thought to Auron > Dante.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:19:27 PM | message detail
Luigi/Zero is a MUCH MUCH MUCH easier pick than any of you think.

Zero did better on Sonic than Tifa did. Nuff said. And even though Zero's 48% was 2003, he did SO well on Sonic that I'd attribute it to Sonic being weaker in '03 (Like Ken's performance, and Aeris doing VERY well also). Tifa scored 4% less the next year (And Luigi scored another 3% less on Tifa). That's too much for Luigi to come back from, and the only match here where SFF would have the most effect would be Sonic/Luigi, which I don't think we need to worry about because of Zero.

Now, Zero vs. Kirby is a whole nother story.

My first instinct was Zero, but I changed to Kirby.... look at how well he did vs Bowser (despite SFF which you think would benefit Bowser) and Tidus.

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Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:19:36 PM | message detail
that put 47% on Sonic.

And did well on Mega Man, who many thought would massacre him. And also SFF'd another member of his own franchise in Protoman. Combine that with Tifa's performance on Luigi, and then her doing fairly well against Sonic, and bada bing. Zero wins with 51% :O
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I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2006 12:20:26 PM | message detail
lol Zero being a female.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/27/2006 12:21:09 PM | message detail
I have a feeling Zero would make Tidus look like a ho, especially if the given the right match pic. Hell there are tons of characters that can make Tidus look worse off than he really is though.
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I'm a 6' 238 lb Gladiator!
Dagan Bomb For The WIN!
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:21:28 PM | message detail
which I don't think we need to worry about because of Zero.

*Ganon!

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:21:48 PM | message detail
Nintendo characters may even be stronger this year. DS sales have exploded in the states, and GameFAQs as a whole has really warmed up to the Wii since E3. Regardless, I still have Zero taking his fourpack; he's proven himself as a stud too many times. He's only had one bad match, and that was against a roided Mario with the full Nintendo backing.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/27/2006 12:23:08 PM | message detail
And the "Nintendo boost of doom!" has to wear off eventually...

I would doubt that. Nintendo is pretty much dominating everywhere, be it the Internet or the mass public. Add into the equation the highly anticipated Wii coming out within the timeframe of this contest and...yeah.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/27/2006 12:23:13 PM | message detail
What if Zero vs Mario was legit though? It reminds me of the Tidus situation.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
therealmnm | Posted 8/27/2006 12:23:40 PM | message detail
With Yoshi, even though he doesn't have an exact x-stat value, we still know he's probably somewhere in between Luigi and Bowser. Plus he only did 10% less than Mega Man on Conker. Nothing is definite, but I don't think Yoshi's strength should be doubted...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/27/2006 12:24:24 PM | message detail
GameFAQs 'warming up' to the Wii? I wasn't aware it could get any more pro-Wii.

Unless you're just referring to the poll concerning the name, in which case that's to be expected. I really wouldn't expect too much of a radical change from 2k5 to 2k6, at least pre-launch.
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WiggumFan267 | Posted 8/27/2006 12:24:57 PM | message detail
Dante is overrated.
DMC is just kinda sitting there, it seems.

Go for the NintendoFAQs pick in that match.

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WiggumFan534 (Now with 100% more... just more...) : Owned by Z1mmy Since 1987
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transience | Posted 8/27/2006 12:25:50 PM | message detail
yeah, if anything I see a more dominant Nintendo than last year. there are three debatable Nintendo matches that bother me:

Zelda/Aeris
Yoshi/Dante
Zero/Luigi / Kirby

and I have to fight the urge to just pick the Nintendo character and be done with it. this place seems like it would vote for anything that has the Nintendo name on it. I don't care about that really, it just feels dangerous picking against the N.
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iddqd
"MY SLEEPING PATTERNS ARE SHOT THANKS TO YOU AND YOUR FANFICTION" -windmage