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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 349

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creativename | Posted 8/26/2006 11:04:07 PM | message detail
Why do you think Zelda overperformed?

More Snake's pic than Zelda. Wouldn't think it would be much of an overperformance, but a slight one.

Zelda has the LoZ boost from 2k3-2k5 to help her out, which outdoes anything Aeris has.

But it seems Zelda herself didn't boost at all from 2K3 to 2k5.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:05:11 PM | message detail
Don't pick Cortana, silly heads! Despite a number of e-mails and message board postings, HBO refused to link to GameFAQs to support the entire Halo series against Castlevania. If you're expecting them to change their tune for the sake of a (very) secondary character, then I'm afraid you're in for a disappointment.

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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 11:05:36 PM | message detail
Oh, Squall will get over 46% on Snake. ;)
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Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:05:46 PM | message detail
Ack, I forgot about FF7: AC and perhaps KHII and DoC helping Aeris (and FF7 in general) out. Aeris 2K3 almost beats Zelda 2K5. However, I tend to not think that Zelda overperformed against Snake...sure, Snake didn't look good, but Zelda was a child in her picture.

I'm tempted to take Aeris over Zelda now. But, then again, Zelda/Aeris is going to take place around November 3rd...close to TP's release date, probably. But is it close enough? Why do you have to be so zip-lipped, Nintendo?!

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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 11:07:14 PM | message detail
Actually, I might just put Squall FTW.

<_<
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 11:07:26 PM | message detail
Interestingly, we're set to possibly find out the exact date of the Wii launch two days after the contest starts.

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marioinblack | Posted 8/26/2006 11:08:24 PM | message detail
Does TP have a release date yet, I haven't looked at it in a while.

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ChidoriNoJutsu | Posted 8/26/2006 11:08:25 PM | message detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Team Rocket Elite
3 - Ngamer64
4 - ChichiriMuyo
5 - Explicit Hairy Balls
6 - transience
7 - Master Moltar
8 - Mac Arrowny
9 - dethfdddddh
10 - Draco1214
11 - arkenaga
12 - Yoshifan823
13 - MasterofHunters
14 - Z1mZum
15 - Shivan Reincarnated
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - DomaDragoon
18 - Janus5000
19 - Applekidjosh
20 - BlAcK TuRtLe
21 - bobeta
22 - greatone
23 - NewLib
24 - Big Bob
25 - HaRRicH
26 - meche313
27 - MarioSuperstar
28 - RockMFR 5
29 - cavalier lowen
30 - Bobby200614
31 - junglebob22
32 - Heroic Mario
33 - yoblazer33
34 - trizob the hedgehog
35 - Aprosenf
36 - MoogleKupo141
37 - voltch
38 - XxSoulxX, yo
39 - Lieutenant Kettch
40 - A worlds envy
41 - Osfan
42 - ff6man
43 - rpgapzx
44 - Viviff
45 - expaniol
46 - Red Sox 777
47 - ps2rulezzz
48 - cyko
49 - jonthomson
50 - jeevesthemole
51 - Luis_Sera89
52 - Phediuk
53 - FFDragon
54 - Vile Requiem
55 - charmander6000
56 - Radix
57 - Tediz247
58 - Brett with Atreyu
59 - Yesmar
60 - shadow8021
61 - Jman_gamerX8
62 - Snip Snip Now
63 - Tirofog
64 - LuniNutz99
65 - Zylo the wolf
66 - Kaxon
67 - KingBartz
68 - longbladeofhiko
69 - Dekar TKB
70 - spikevegeta
71 - Azp2k32
72 - Ori
73 - CountCrazy007
74 - Lopen
75 - Chinballz
76 - Soniclink15
77 - ccbfan
78 - Fett0001
79 - Dark115
80 - Dilated Chemist
81 - Steve Illumina
82 - outsider920
83 - ExThaNemesis
84 - HeroicGammaRay
85 - RPGuy96
86 - Pathetique
87 - SonicRaptor
88 - swirldude
89 - TheRye
90 - Steinershocker
91 - XIII is sexy
92 - Smurf
93 - freac
94 - Redtooth
95- FastFalcon05
96 - Rufus Shinra 18
97 - _Harmonica_
98 - Nintendo Wiii
99 - Tjian
100 - Sephirot1
101 - plasmabeam
102- SephirothG
103 - Tai
104 - WHAT THE CRUNK ED BELLIS
105 - King Morgoth
106 - dragoontheguy
107 - outback
108 - Dunkeroo23
109 - canadiancatcher
110 - stingers135
111 - Tidus My Boy
112 - Guess how many Teens
113 - Prometheus321
114 - BeTheMan
115 - Haste2
116 - Read_Only_Thx
117 - KleenexTissue50
118 - daverath
119 - Mithrandir1331
120 - ScorpionX3
121 - perdevious
122 - ExquisiteSamurai
123 - Buzzup
124 - Jmast7
125 - GrapefruitKing
126 - cavedog0/ThatsRidiculous
127 - andaca
128 - Sess
129 - Giggsalot
130 - Consolefreak
131 - Tsunami70
132 - Xuxon
133- MasterMage119
134 - ObscureMammoth
135 - Brett with Atreyu
136- MarkSmith
137 - ChidoriNoJutsu
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:09:08 PM | message detail
Cortana is like Halo's Kerrigan... except about 100 times worse. Honestly, why the hell would anyone even give two poops about her? Does she do something amazing in Halo 2 that I'm not aware of?
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creativename | Posted 8/26/2006 11:09:12 PM | message detail
Whoops, never mind that "Zelda didn't boost" thing. Forgot that Link boosted in the interim.

Still, I think Aeris/Zelda is a very unpredictable match.
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smitelf | Posted 8/26/2006 11:10:01 PM | message detail
Zelda vs. Aeris is an awfully difficult match to call. According to lol x-stats, Vincent > Zelda ~= Tifa...
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creativename | Posted 8/26/2006 11:10:33 PM | message detail
In fairness, I'd pick Cortana to beat Kerrigan.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/26/2006 11:11:12 PM | message detail
Oddities happen in the contests. Both of Sonic's next-gen games are looking great, and Sonic Rush was absolutely awesome (as in, better than any Sonic game released since SA2). Crono's got no reason to really climb, and CT's #2 got ousted by Knuckles last contest (too bad Knuckles is gone...perhaps Amy can win a match in his stead).

If you think Sonic Rush is going to do anything for Sonic, then you'd have to think Mega Man ZX would do something for him, wouldn't you? And as I recall, MM>Sonic last year. Assuming MMZX cancels out Sonic Rush+Crap (crap being Shadow the Hedgehog and Sonic Riders), why would you take Sonic over him. The hype for the two new sonic games? I don't see anyone really caring about those except for those who would already vote for Sonic.
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marioinblack | Posted 8/26/2006 11:11:42 PM | message detail
Cortana won't win. Dark has the Perfect Dark Zero boost going for her, and Cortana doesn't have much going for her.

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AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:12:17 PM | message detail
Bah.

I promised myself I'd remember to sign up for guru contest after summer contest.

And if no signups yet I'm definately gonna forget

>_<
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Icehawk: A wife beating wang lover. Sounds like a good gimmick to me
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:12:46 PM | message detail
I'm even more weary of using the stats than usual. Just look at the complete PS3/Wii turnaround we've been seeing on this site over the past four months. Such a massive shift in a short amount of time can easily play a big roll in the contest.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:14:30 PM | message detail
In fairness, I'd pick Cortana to beat Kerrigan.

Ok, then she must have done something big in Halo 2. I know she has two games to Kerrigan's one, but... she's a damn computer. Come on.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 11:15:18 PM | message detail
I wouldn't take Cortana over anyone.
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creativename | Posted 8/26/2006 11:16:11 PM | message detail
If Mega Man/Sonic were definitely facing each other, I'd say people should just pick whoever they like better. The difference between them is so small.

However, if one has Mega Man vs. Sonic in this bracket, they have Sonic>Crono...in which case I think you'd really have to take Sonic over Mega Man as well. It'd be a situation where you're just placing your chips on Sonic.

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charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:16:59 PM | message detail
The way I did Claire's strength was adjust her to where Tidus is now and then made her 80% as strong because that is how much Jill has fallen. This IMO would probably be near Claire's floor. In the end she is expected to get 44% against pre-KH2 Riku. If Riku were to get a Squall like boost Claire would be projected to get 37% though I don't really see that kind of boost happening to Riku and I would still think that he would have a hard time pushing 60%. In the end I think it comes down to how much weaker you think Kairi is.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/26/2006 11:18:10 PM | message detail
If Mega Man/Sonic were definitely facing each other, I'd say people should just pick whoever they like better. The difference between them is so small.

However, if one has Mega Man vs. Sonic in this bracket, they have Sonic>Crono...in which case I think you'd really have to take Sonic over Mega Man as well. It'd be a situation where you're just placing your chips on Sonic.


True, I forgot that Crono faced Sonic. Then again I'm probably the only one who has MM>Crono>Sonic this contest. Damn I wanted to see Sonic v. MM again just to prove the Sonic fanboys wrong again.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:19:09 PM | message detail
If Mega Man/Sonic were definitely facing each other, I'd say people should just pick whoever they like better. The difference between them is so small.

However, if one has Mega Man vs. Sonic in this bracket, they have Sonic>Crono...in which case I think you'd really have to take Sonic over Mega Man as well. It'd be a situation where you're just placing your chips on Sonic.


That's how I feel. If Mega Man and Sonic were in the same quarter of the bracket, I'd flip a coin or something. However, Sonic has to deal with Crono first, and I don't think he will.
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creativename | Posted 8/26/2006 11:21:52 PM | message detail
Ok, then she must have done something big in Halo 2. I know she has two games to Kerrigan's one, but... she's a damn computer. Come on.

It's just that Kerrigan is one of the weakest characters we've ever seen. Cortana would be too, but probably not as weak.


The way I did Claire's strength was adjust her to where Tidus is now and then made her 80% as strong because that is how much Jill has fallen. This IMO would probably be near Claire's floor. In the end she is expected to get 44% against pre-KH2 Riku. If Riku were to get a Squall like boost Claire would be projected to get 37% though I don't really see that kind of boost happening to Riku and I would still think that he would have a hard time pushing 60%. In the end I think it comes down to how much weaker you think Kairi is.

Interesting analysis. So Claire should be above 18%...which is weak but Kairi shouldn't be all that much either... But, though logically this match is hard to call, like I said I just can't picture Claire winning.

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smitelf | Posted 8/26/2006 11:21:52 PM | message detail
In the end I think it comes down to how much weaker you think Kairi is.

Hmm...well, the difference between Sora and Riku is minimal...but Riku is cool...*deliberates*
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Big Bob | Posted 8/26/2006 11:23:53 PM | message detail
I didn't think one second about Kairi/Claire. Just had KH2, and I'm sure most people would have to guess which RE games Claire was in.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 11:24:03 PM | message detail
I picked Zelda without giving it a second thought. The FF7 fanbase likes Tifa more than Aeris, but that's kind of irrelevant.

This is NintendoFAQs. In any close match involving Nintendo vs Square, why would pick against Nintendo? More specifically, why would you pick against Zelda with Twilight Princess coming?

Link > Cloud, Zelda > Aeris and Ganon > Vincent. There's a nice symmetry there.

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smitelf | Posted 8/26/2006 11:25:32 PM | message detail
Link > Cloud, Zelda > Aeris and Ganon > Vincent. There's a nice symmetry there.

Technically, Ganondorf would be symmetrically equivalent to Sephiroth...and that doesn't work out so well.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 11:26:19 PM | message detail
I picked Kairi > Claire just because Kairi is way hotter than Claire could ever dream to be: http://b.english-summerrain.org/temp/KH2-Kairi-Riku-Selphie.jpg

~*ST*~
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 11:27:26 PM | message detail
Technically, Ganondorf would be symmetrically equivalent to Sephiroth.

I'm talking about symmetry with Zelda characters facing their FF7 counterparts of close strength. I see no reason to take FF7 in any of those matches after what happened last contest.

~*ST*~
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 11:28:35 PM | message detail
I picked Kairi > Claire just because Kairi is way hotter than Claire could ever dream to be:

MORE LIKE ABYSMAL TASTE! Claire > > > > > > > > Kairi, and Claire isn't all that good looking. :P
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smitelf | Posted 8/26/2006 11:29:29 PM | message detail
I picked Kairi > Claire just because Kairi is way hotter than Claire could ever dream to be

Eww...
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:30:51 PM | message detail
Hmm...well, the difference between Sora and Riku is minimal...but Riku is cool...*deliberates*

And Kairi isn't? Pshaw.
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Sir Bormun | Posted 8/26/2006 11:31:32 PM | message detail
I really get the feeling that Kairi is going to beat Claire handily, and then the stats topics will be filled with people saying "But the 2k2 X-Stats could never have been wrong! How could this happen?"

If you're picking Claire, make sure it's for a reason other than "she gave Tidus a good fight in 2k2." I can't see Claire being stronger than Jill. Jill lost to Ryu Hayabusa in a recent contest. I think Kairi's in pretty good shape here.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 11:31:34 PM | message detail
It was a joke, you damn people.

I actually picked Kairi because the KH fanbase is rabid as all hell, plus I have Peach beating Jill. It's a decent comparison.

~*ST*~
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Chinballz | Posted 8/26/2006 11:34:03 PM | message detail
Don't forget the fact that Cortana is not a photogenic character. While Joanna will likely get that stupid pic of her in the star tanktop again, Cortana is a purple blob.

*possible offensive warning because Cortana doesn't technically wear clothes*

http://images.google.com/images?q=cortana&hl=en
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 11:34:14 PM | message detail
Inequalities beginning with "Kairi >" should never be joked about!!

That said, too bad Claire is unlikely to win.
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smitelf | Posted 8/26/2006 11:35:04 PM | message detail
Cortana looks like she's pole-dancing in one of those pics. 0_0
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Cecil XIX | Posted 8/26/2006 11:35:14 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: If Sonic were to win the male half, he would lose to Samus in a direct matchup but outlast her in the Battle Royale.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 11:35:31 PM | message detail
Fact.
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Sir Bormun | Posted 8/26/2006 11:35:51 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: If Sonic were to win the male half, he would lose to Samus in a direct matchup but outlast her in the Battle Royale.

Makes sense to me.
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TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 11:35:57 PM | message detail
Fact no matter who wins the male half. Unless it's Ganondorf.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:36:09 PM | message detail
Ulti wins. Kairi=Teh Hotness.

*Yoshifan*
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 11:36:20 PM | message detail
I picked Kairi after a while of thinking. Claire should be significantly weaker than she was that year, plus Kairi is rather important to KH and just has KH2, which is fresh in people's minds. I would expect her to barely pull it out...and still be really weak.

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smitelf | Posted 8/26/2006 11:36:28 PM | message detail
Fact.
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11117Elements | Posted 8/26/2006 11:36:58 PM | message detail
Ok please help me

I have lara>yuna

Is that fairly good?
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Janus5000 | Posted 8/26/2006 11:37:35 PM | message detail
It's fairly no.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/26/2006 11:42:15 PM | message detail
Is this how Ganon looks in TP?

http://i8.photobucket.com/albums/a4/dark_link769/Legend%20of%20Zelda/Fanart/Twilight_Princess_Ganondorf_by_kacf.jpg

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Cecil XIX | Posted 8/26/2006 11:42:52 PM | message detail
Then would it be correct to say that early in the Battle Royale, the loser is the one most vulnerable to SSF?
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/26/2006 11:43:11 PM | message detail
Or this?

www.joystiq.com/media/2006/01/ganon.jpg

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 11:44:58 PM | message detail
Is this how Ganon looks in TP?

No one knows how Ganon is going to look in Twilight Princess yet.

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