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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 348

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Blackapino1984 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:15:29 PM | message detail
The Nintendo chain of games.

Zelda > Mario > Metroid.
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Rock Man's year is next year. Summer 2006 Champion. Unless there's some funky spring contest like Best Mega Man character Ever contest.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:15:32 PM | message detail
Anyway, Melee was in no way obvious.

To you, maybe.


I'll bite. Just because you won and therefore had it doesn't make it obvious. And regardless of you not wanting to live in the past, all of melee's matches were outside of "obvious winner" results. You can have faith in any upset, back it with your reasons, but if the match was close, you got lucky, and not much more.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:18:21 PM | message detail
How was it guaranteed from the start? The only Nintendo character Samus had faced prior to 2005 was Link, and she held up better than Mario. Mario was coming off a down year; Samus was coming off a great one. Yes, Mario got the SFF and made the match look like a no-brainer, but it certainly wasn't that way from the start. If it was, I wonder why I didn't see more people jump to accept Andel's account bet.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/26/2006 9:26:27 PM | message detail
Summer Contest 05 Final Four weren't ALL quite obvious. Just Crono, Snake, and Mario. Mega Man/Sonic was pretty up in the air.
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Blast the Speakers!!
Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member
Draco1214 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:30:18 PM | message detail
I'm curious as to why people are so sure of Zero being better than Kirby.

Because I think Kirby is overrated and Zero will expose him.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 9:31:03 PM | message detail
Just because you won and therefore had it doesn't make it obvious. And regardless of you not wanting to live in the past, all of melee's matches were outside of "obvious winner" results. You can have faith in any upset, back it with your reasons, but if the match was close, you got lucky, and not much more.

But but but...... crap.

YOU WIN THIS ROUND, but even still, what else in that division was going to beat SSBM? Its only competition was FFX, and that was due to a years-old poll that happened literally weeks after SSBM's release, while FFX was already established on what used to be SquareFAQs. It had no competition in its fourpack, and I'll never concede that SSBM wouldn't have SFFd Wind Waker had that match happened. After that is Halo and Starcraft; no one would ever say that Halo had a good chance at SSBM, and no one in their right mind would have argued pre-contest that Starcraft was going to beat Halo, Kingdom Hearts, Wind Waker and SSBM all in a row. It was obvious in my head because of process of elimination, mainly. SSBM vs FFX was just one of those "tough match, I'll make the fanboy call" deals.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
dethfdddddh | Posted 8/26/2006 9:31:04 PM | message detail
Snake, obvious? There was a lot of debate surrounding just about any midcarder that faced down Snake in 2k5.
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:32:43 PM | message detail
and I'll never concede that SSBM wouldn't have SFFd Wind Waker had that match happened.

SSBM vs WW would have been a really cool match to see. And to the rest of your points, point taken.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 9:32:56 PM | message detail
I wouldn't call Bowser and Zelda midcarders.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 9:33:14 PM | message detail
Because I think Kirby is overrated and Zero will expose him.

That's not an unfair assumption, though I think Zero is a level or two below his 2003 days. The MMX series didn't exactly impress me last contest, either.

We'll just, uh.... assume that Metroid and Zelda are even statistically before SFF and base Kirby vs Zero on that! YEAH! 55-45 KIRBY WIN, BAY-BEE.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 9:35:14 PM | message detail
SSBM vs WW would have been a really cool match to see.

I agree, but for a different reason. Slowflake was on the side of thinking that WW would have SFFd SSBM to hell and back, while I believed the opposite. If it weren't for a few smart Starcraft cheaters, we would have seen it happen.

And yes, I believe Starcraft cheated more than once in that contest. Ceej kind of opened the can of worms by accident during Kefka/Vercetti when he talked about Korean IP floods.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 9:37:12 PM | message detail
TWW/SC is probably my least favorite match in the whole history of matches.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Janus5000 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:39:30 PM | message detail
TWW/SC is probably my favorite match in the whole history of matches.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:41:25 PM | message detail
Yeah, it was terrible. That was actually the first time I got IM'd by another Board 8er (can't remember who), but it was just to call my Wind Waker support foolish and rub it in my face. I really want to see a rematch.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
dethfdddddh | Posted 8/26/2006 9:44:29 PM | message detail
Anyone wanna take a guess at the chance of Objection rallying for Wright? Freeman's bad enough against normal fodder; with rallying in that match....
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
Janus5000 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:46:20 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright isn't strong enough to be normal fodder.

Plus a lot of those objections probably came from users on this very site.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
MarkSmith | Posted 8/26/2006 9:46:49 PM | message detail
Ulti, you werent so confident about SSBM during the actual contest. I remember you and I were tied in score going into the FFX-SSBM match, and you said you took SSBM for the upset. You explaine dthat your strategy was to go cookie cutter, yet take the one upset in the contest that made to most sense to distinguish yourself from the pack.

You were pretty nervous during that macth, and especially nervous during the SSBM-StarCraft match (cant blame ya, you had a lot of money riding on it)
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"The government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have"-Gerald Ford

"I have nipples Greg--can you milk me?"
Janus5000 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:47:03 PM | message detail
Then again, there are upwards of 900,000...
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
MarkSmith | Posted 8/26/2006 9:47:05 PM | message detail
1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Team Rocket Elite
3 - Ngamer64
4 - ChichiriMuyo
5 - Explicit Hairy Balls
6 - transience
7 - Master Moltar
8 - Mac Arrowny
9 - dethfdddddh
10 - Draco1214
11 - arkenaga
12 - Yoshifan823
13 - MasterofHunters
14 - Z1mZum
15 - Shivan Reincarnated
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - DomaDragoon
18 - Janus5000
19 - Applekidjosh
20 - BlAcK TuRtLe
21 - bobeta
22 - greatone
23 - NewLib
24 - Big Bob
25 - HaRRicH
26 - meche313
27 - MarioSuperstar
28 - RockMFR 5
29 - cavalier lowen
30 - Bobby200614
31 - junglebob22
32 - Heroic Mario
33 - yoblazer33
34 - trizob the hedgehog
35 - Aprosenf
36 - MoogleKupo141
37 - voltch
38 - XxSoulxX, yo
39 - Lieutenant Kettch
40 - A worlds envy
41 - Osfan
42 - ff6man
43 - rpgapzx
44 - Viviff
45 - expaniol
46 - Red Sox 777
47 - ps2rulezzz
48 - cyko
49 - jonthomson
50 - jeevesthemole
51 - Luis_Sera89
52 - Phediuk
53 - FFDragon
54 - Vile Requiem
55 - charmander6000
56 - Radix
57 - Tediz247
58 - Brett with Atreyu
59 - Yesmar
60 - shadow8021
61 - Jman_gamerX8
62 - Snip Snip Now
63 - Tirofog
64 - LuniNutz99
65 - Zylo the wolf
66 - Kaxon
67 - KingBartz
68 - longbladeofhiko
69 - Dekar TKB
70 - spikevegeta
71 - Azp2k32
72 - Ori
73 - CountCrazy007
74 - Lopen
75 - Chinballz
76 - Soniclink15
77 - ccbfan
78 - Fett0001
79 - Dark115
80 - Dilated Chemist
81 - Steve Illumina
82 - outsider920
83 - ExThaNemesis
84 - HeroicGammaRay
85 - RPGuy96
86 - Pathetique
87 - SonicRaptor
88 - swirldude
89 - TheRye
90 - Steinershocker
91 - XIII is sexy
92 - Smurf
93 - freac
94 - Redtooth
95- FastFalcon05
96 - Rufus Shinra 18
97 - _Harmonica_
98 - Nintendo Wiii
99 - Tjian
100 - Sephirot1
101 - plasmabeam
102- SephirothG
103 - Tai
104 - WHAT THE CRUNK ED BELLIS
105 - King Morgoth
106 - dragoontheguy
107 - outback
108 - Dunkeroo23
109 - canadiancatcher
110 - stingers135
111 - Tidus My Boy
112 - Guess how many Teens
113 - Prometheus321
114 - BeTheMan
115 - Haste2
116 - Read_Only_Thx
117 - KleenexTissue50
118 - daverath
119 - Mithrandir1331
120 - ScorpionX3
121 - perdevious
122 - ExquisiteSamurai
123 - Buzzup
124 - Jmast7
125 - GrapefruitKing
126 - cavedog0/ThatsRidiculous
127 - andaca
128 - Sess
129 - Giggsalot
130 - Consolefreak
131 - Tsunami70
132 - Xuxon
133- MasterMage119
134 - ObscureMammoth
135 - Brett with Atreyu
136- MarkSmith
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"The government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have"-Gerald Ford

"I have nipples Greg--can you milk me?"
Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:49:33 PM | message detail
Anyone besides me annoyed at the fact that there are eight 1-seeds rather than four for this contest and SC2K5? Really, it means turning four potentially difficult matches into four obvious matches...

Why has there been no discussion on Joanna Dark vs. Cortana? Is there any upset potential there?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 9:51:02 PM | message detail
Heh, even though Gordon wins a match, we still get a Half-Life character losing in the first round...let's just hope Lara/Alyx is 59/41 or so.

Why has there been no discussion on Joanna Dark vs. Cortana? Is there any upset potential there?

Well, I could see Cortana doing as well as JD2k5, as her maximum value. However, Joanna had PDZ since then, so...
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
MarkSmith | Posted 8/26/2006 9:51:17 PM | message detail
2-15's are just as predictable as 1-8's.
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"The government big enough to give you everything you want is big enough to take everything you have"-Gerald Ford

"I have nipples Greg--can you milk me?"
Halcyon26 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:51:59 PM | message detail
Any chance that Sheena>Jill?
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"You know, if you miss Jack Bauer, he'll come to your house and kill you." Shepard Smith, Fox News.
therealmnm | Posted 8/26/2006 9:53:04 PM | message detail
I can't see Zero getting 46.64% on Tifa though, and I think Luigi's gotten a bigger boost than Zero could possibly have this year.

Wow. I just got back from the movies and I run into this? Has Zero fallen that far out of the stats topic's favor off of one match? It's not like we haven't had previous data to base Zero off of. He's had plenty of matches to prove his strength.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:54:09 PM | message detail
Heh, forget I ever said that about eight 1-seeds. =p

Sheena's weaker than Kratos, and even Kratos would most likely lose to Jill Valentine.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 9:54:39 PM | message detail
Why has there been no discussion on Joanna Dark vs. Cortana? Is there any upset potential there?

I think so. Xbox SFF!

I'm actually not even kidding. I picked Cortana to win, just because Halo fans are insane enough to rally and cheat for anything and everything when it comes to a close match. Except against Castlevania, which still makes no sense to me.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 9:54:47 PM | message detail
I don't think Cortana could beat Joanna. Considering how they're both on the Xbox system and there could be some weird SFF thing going on.

Then you add potential SFF against Mario and PDZ.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 9:55:07 PM | message detail
Any chance that Sheena>Jill?

Not unless you think Sheena would absolutely destroy Kratos.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:56:08 PM | message detail
Heh, even though Gordon wins a match, we still get a Half-Life character losing in the first round...let's just hope Lara/Alyx is 59/41 or so.

Hey, Gordon Freeman could always get over 40% against Sora, ya know?

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
dethfdddddh | Posted 8/26/2006 9:56:13 PM | message detail
Any takers on Auron rSFFing Crono a tad?
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/26/2006 9:58:12 PM | message detail
Joanna/Cortana is worthy of being spoken about. At first I didn't think Cortana was cared about enough by her fanbase to get in, but there she is. And there sure wasn't Cortana support here (I believe), which makes it more impressive. I think Joanna takes it, but Cortana keeps it closer than expected.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/26/2006 9:59:12 PM | message detail
Wow. I just got back from the movies and I run into this? Has Zero fallen that far out of the stats topic's favor off of one match? It's not like we haven't had previous data to base Zero off of. He's had plenty of matches to prove his strength.

I for one don't doubt Zero too much. And as far as the "MMX series not impressing" during the BSE, its not like they really had much of a way TO impress. It thrashes Suikoden, then gets SFF'd by Zelda, simple as that. If you think one match with a few lost percentage points against Mario(On his hottest year since 02 at that) is enough of a reason to doubt Zero, your prediction skills are runnin behind. Look at how well he did on Ryu H, a decent midcarder, in that same year. Watch how Dante/Ryu H(I'm expecting Dante to decrease a bit. He'll win, but he won't do so hot.) plays out this year, and it'll give even more reasons to not underestimate the Z man.
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Blast the Speakers!!
Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 9:59:13 PM | message detail
Also: I'm really hoping that Celes can get this pic against The Boss: http://www.cavesofnarshe.com/forums/ipb/html/avatars/Final_Fantasy_6_Menu_Pics/Celes.gif

We saw Face CATS in the first round last year, so why not?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 10:01:32 PM | message detail
So, I made a topic a week ago or so jokingly entertaining Samus vs Zelda. Now, I'm heavily considering it considering that TP would most probably be released by then. >_>
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/26/2006 10:01:39 PM | message detail
Any takers on Auron rSFFing Crono a tad?
He'll get about as much as Vincent did, and seeing as how I personally think Vincents a tad bit stronger, I'm gonna say Auron gets 41%.
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Blast the Speakers!!
Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member
therealmnm | Posted 8/26/2006 10:02:16 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, something I've been thinking about for Big Boss/The Boss. After actually playing MGS3, the game makes it pretty clear that you are playing as Big Boss. Given how popular Metal Gear on this site, I think a good chunk of Big Boss votes come from MGS3 fans. I don't think The Boss will be stronger than Big Boss at all...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 10:02:46 PM | message detail
I think that no one cares about those two characters, to the level where it becomes a games = characters situation. No one knows who in the hell "Joanna Dark" even is, and Perfect Dark Zero is a horrible game.

I doubt Halo would ever come close to losing to Perfect Dark/Zero in much of anything in popularity contests. But maybe I'm alone on this, who knows.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 10:03:08 PM | message detail
So, I made a topic a week ago or so jokingly entertaining Samus vs Zelda. Now, I'm heavily considering it considering that TP would most probably be released by then. >_>

That was me. And while I'm taking the other upset I mentioned (Ganon > all males), this is a little bit much for Zelda to overcome:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2115
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/26/2006 10:03:51 PM | message detail
That was me.

I made mine first!!1shift+1!

:P
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/26/2006 10:04:24 PM | message detail
But then you take a look at Dante/Terra(I'm sorry, I'm just not buying into Dante's strength too much), and look at the fact that Celes is probably not quite as popular as Terra, and you'd think The Boss could do away with her decently.
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Blast the Speakers!!
Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/26/2006 10:04:41 PM | message detail
So, you think Ganon can beat every male, without SFF in the case of Crono, Sonic, and Snake, but you can't take Zelda in a potential rSFF matchup?
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 10:04:44 PM | message detail
Errr...I mentioned it in this topic, I didn't make its own topic. Guess it wasn't me. >_>

No one knows who in the hell "Joanna Dark" even is, and Perfect Dark Zero is a horrible game.

What? Perfect Dark is still selling better than MGS2, and PDZ is quite popular on XBL.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
dethfdddddh | Posted 8/26/2006 10:05:27 PM | message detail
Poor MC's gonna have to deal with Auron after FF XII AND KH2; recipe for a meltdown and an even tougher time predicting MC in 2k7, assuming Halo 3 is out by then.
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/26/2006 10:05:54 PM | message detail
Not to mention I know plenty of people who think Perfect Dark is just as good as Goldeneye, if not better...
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Blast the Speakers!!
Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 10:05:56 PM | message detail
So, you think Ganon can beat every male, without SFF in the case of Crono, Sonic, and Snake, but you can't take Zelda in a potential rSFF matchup?

Well, I don't think Ganon could beat Samus either, so obviously not.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 10:06:27 PM | message detail
So, I made a topic a week ago or so jokingly entertaining Samus vs Zelda. Now, I'm heavily considering it considering that TP would most probably be released by then.

I think that's a bit too much for Zelda to overcome. She surely can make the match much closer as a result, but actually win? Very small chance there.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
creativename | Posted 8/26/2006 10:06:31 PM | message detail
Tingle>Magus and Knuckles and Kefka and Frog? And Vivi Donkey Kong and Shadow and Ness? Even Diablo and Tommy Vercetti. Damn.


Haste 2:
Also, Sephiroth is a villain and Cloud and Link are the heroes, meaning Cloud and Link could split hero votes..

Exactly what I was thinking. Sephiroth>Cloud wouldn't need too much "hero SFF".

Random prediction: once we hit the female side of the bracket, every other day we'll all be shocked at the results. "OMG how can this be so close?! How can she be winning by so muuuuuch?!"

Agree on this too. The female side should give us plenty of surprising %age results.

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creativename | Posted 8/26/2006 10:07:25 PM | message detail
FastFalcon:
If Samus and Crono were close enough so that a few hundred votes could make the difference, the later hours of the poll could spike a lot.

Hmmm...very interesting point.

In a Battle Royale format, cheating would indeed be far more powerful.

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www.gamefaqscontests.com
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/26/2006 10:07:34 PM | message detail
...people are debating Celes vs The Boss? Celes is my favorite character in FF6, and I'd practically slap the Ulti Guarandamntee™ on The Boss winning that. This isn't Ocelot/Pacman we're talking about. The Boss is beloved by the MGS fanbase, while Ocelot only matters at the tail end of each game. She's responsible for arguably the most touching moment in the history of gaming. I've beaten MGS3 twice, and cried during the ending both times. I'm sure it'll happen again when I replay the game.

As much as I love her character, Celes jumping off of a cliff and failing at failing doesn't even compare.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: SOTC, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, SFAA, Castlevania: LoI
BlastTheSpeaker | Posted 8/26/2006 10:07:46 PM | message detail
Judging by the entry form, the female bracket is first though o_o
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Blast the Speakers!!
Hopeful Soon To Be WWEGSB FPV DL Member