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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 348

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Tediz247 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:08:32 PM | message detail
Time for FACT or FICTION: Battle Royale edition.

FACT or FICTION: Link wins all 5 Battle Royale matches.

FACT or FICTION: Samus fails to break 8%.

FACT or FICTION: Sephiroth beats Cloud in at least one match.

FACT or FICTION: Clinkarioth will not be the Final Four.

FACT or FICTION: Votals will surpass 175,000 in at least one Battle Royale match.

FACT or FICTION: Mario beats Cloud in at least one poll.

FACT or FICTION: Assuming Crono wins the Male bracket, he avoids SFF.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 5:10:09 PM | message detail
Any chance that this holds or Dante goes ahead? I know DMC4 is due soon so I'm wondering if that would be a factor.

For whatever it's worth (probably not much), DMC4 will have tons of coverage and videos at TGS at the end of September.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Janus5000 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:10:41 PM | message detail
FACT: Link wins all 5 Battle Royale matches.
FACT: Samus fails to break 8%.
FICTION: Sephiroth beats Cloud in at least one match.
FICTION: Clinkarioth will not be the Final Four.
FICTION: Votals will surpass 175,000 in at least one Battle Royale match.
FICTION: Mario beats Cloud in at least one poll.
FACT: Assuming Crono wins the Male bracket, he avoids SFF.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:12:48 PM | message detail
FACT: Link wins all 5 Battle Royale matches.
FACT: Samus fails to break 8%.
FICTION: Sephiroth beats Cloud in at least one match.
FICTION: Clinkarioth will not be the Final Four.
FICTION: Votals will surpass 175,000 in at least one Battle Royale match.
FICTION: Mario beats Cloud in at least one poll.
FACT: Assuming Crono wins the Male bracket, he avoids SFF.

---
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 5:13:04 PM | message detail
Dante/Yoshi is tough, but I feel more confident in Dante.

And I agree with Janus on the Fact/Fictions
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:14:04 PM | message detail
By the way, just so I'm clear on this, the Tiebreaker Question applies to the final match of the Battle Royal, right?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Tediz247 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:15:42 PM | message detail
I thought it applied to the main bracket.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 5:16:06 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: Link wins all 5 Battle Royale matches.

Fact.

By that time, Twilight Princess will definitely have released, which should not only increase the amount of Nintendo fans coming to the site but their attention will also be solely on Link's latest adventure. I have a feeling that Link pretty much dominates -- as much as one can -- the Battle Royale matches.

FACT or FICTION: Samus fails to break 8%.

Fact.

I'm actually not sure, but that seems somewhat possible. <<

FACT or FICTION: Sephiroth beats Cloud in at least one match.

Fiction.

Cloud should remain in a nice second throughout the entire thing, I think.

FACT or FICTION: Clinkarioth will not be the Final Four.

Fiction.

There's no way the male or female winner is going to be able to out last those four. Even with whatever split may occur with Mario and Link, he'll still be able to hold out over whoever the other two are, who will have it even worse.

FACT or FICTION: Votals will surpass 175,000 in at least one Battle Royale match.

Fiction.

I'm somewhat cautious on going with fact on this because of that number. Even LoZ/FF wasn't able to approach 175,000 votes. I suppose there is some help coming in the form of two next-gen consoles being released though.

FACT or FICTION: Mario beats Cloud in at least one poll.

Fiction.

I think Cloud will be able to hold on to second throughout the matches.

FACT or FICTION: Assuming Crono wins the Male bracket, he avoids SFF.

Fiction.

I think the Square support he has will go to both Cloud and Sephiroth. Any other support should go to the others, too, so I think it'd get hit with some SFF at least.

---
"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 5:17:01 PM | message detail
By the way, just so I'm clear on this, the Tiebreaker Question applies to the final match of the Battle Royal, right?

I believe it's the main bracket.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:18:07 PM | message detail
Luigi/Zero is probably going to be one of those matches where it will be close, but over 80% of the board will be picking one to beat the other.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:19:00 PM | message detail
Hmm...
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 5:25:22 PM | message detail
Not sure if this has already been mentioned (still catching up), but would anyone take The Boss over Big Boss? That might help decide how Celes vs. The Boss would turn out.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Tediz247 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:27:12 PM | message detail
I think The Boss will at least be equal to Old Man Big Boss, if not above him. I also think Celes will be slightly weaker than Terra. Plus there's the fact that Big Boss is behind Auron, which means being behind double SFF, so he's potentially underrated. The Boss/Celes is still one of the hardest matches of the contest though.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/26/2006 5:28:25 PM | message detail
Luigi/Zero was very tough for me, so I just went with who I liked better. That's usually how it is with close matches.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 5:29:02 PM | message detail
I was talking to HM earlier about that. He said he would put The Boss over Big Boss (who I had forgotten about), and thinking about it, I would too. I also don't see Celes being any stronger than Terra, so yeah...
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Lopen | Posted 8/26/2006 5:33:02 PM | message detail
Well, I think The Boss > Big Boss, but I also think Celes > Terra. Seems like a tough match, but I had no problem putting The Boss there for some reason.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Draco1214 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:34:19 PM | message detail
GFNW will remain intact. Book it!
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 5:40:26 PM | message detail
anyone really think PW can win that one, though? I just can't see GFNW finally coming to an end. But I took Gordon anyway.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/26/2006 5:42:55 PM | message detail
I can't see Zero getting 46.64% on Tifa though, and I think Luigi's gotten a bigger boost than Zero could possibly have this year.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Applekidjosh | Posted 8/26/2006 5:46:13 PM | message detail
I've got two things to say.


I'll ride the Phoenix Wright ship all the way til it sinks.


And.


KERRIGAN! YOU BETTER NOT DISAPPOINT ME THIS YEAR! I TRUSTED YOU LAST YEAR!!

REDEEM YOURSELF!!
---
mli
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 5:46:40 PM | message detail
I could actually see Zero beating Tifa.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 5:47:47 PM | message detail
you don't think Zero could get 46% on Tifa? Why? He got 44% on Mega Man... and he's indirectly stronger than Aeris already.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 5:48:24 PM | message detail
Hmm, Zero looked good in 2004 and Luigi looked bad there, while he looked good in 2005 and Zero looked bad.

I might end up switching to Zero winning the match and maybe the four-pack, as I can see him doing as well as, if not better than Tifa did on Sonic (I know he did much better in 2003, but I'm talking 2005 Sonic).
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 5:49:05 PM | message detail
I think the real match is Kirby vs Zero but I'm still going with Zero there.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:50:06 PM | message detail
FACT: Link wins all 5 Battle Royale matches. I don't think Mario could compete, and Cloud and Sephiroth should suck enough votes from each other.

FICTION: Samus fails to break 8%. I think the new Metroid game for the Wii is due around this time.

FACT: Sephiroth beats Cloud in at least one match. Sephiroth'll do better than Cloud right at the start, and will slowly do worse in each progressing match...

FICTION: Clinkarioth will not be the Final Four. Yeah...I don't think Sonic or Mega Man, and especially Crono and Samus, could manage.

FICTION: Votals will surpass 175,000 in at least one Battle Royale match. I could easily be wrong, though...it could have an unusually large appeal.

FICTION: Mario beats Cloud in at least one poll. Or maybe Mario could...what do any of us know, anyway?

FICTION: Assuming Crono wins the Male bracket, he avoids SFF. But, SFF is a totally different thing when there's more than 2 characters...you could say that EVERYONE is involved with SFF.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 5:54:32 PM | message detail
Toughest match IMO is Yoshi/Dante. I'm not even considering changing any of the rest, even the ones I consider tough matches, but Yoshi/Dante could go 55/45 in either direction and I wouldn't be surprised.

Relatedly, anyone who considers Riku > Yoshi is insane. Sora vs. Yoshi would be a tough match.

Oh, and am I completely crazy for having Ganon make it to the finals?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
redrocket | Posted 8/26/2006 5:59:51 PM | message detail
I can't believe that noone has yet mentioned the most humorous snub of all.....








Toadette

LOL
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 6:01:42 PM | message detail
Oh, and am I completely crazy for having Ganon make it to the finals?

Uh huh...frankly, I think anyone who would even entertain Ganon > Sonic is bonkers. And even if Ganondorf was a little indirectly stronger than Sonic and Crono, there's no way he'd ever get over the SFF hump against Mega Man.
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 6:03:31 PM | message detail
frankly, I think anyone who would even entertain Ganon > Sonic is bonkers.

Given how close Ganon already is to Sonic, plus the addition of Twilight Princess, people entertaining such things are hardly bonkers.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 6:05:34 PM | message detail
People still haven't realized that the Noble Nine is a sacred institution? When filling out a bracket, you can always safely choose a noble niner to beat a non-noble niner and anyone to beat Gordon Freeman (yes, even Phoenix Wright).
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 6:06:08 PM | message detail
I'm not talking about stats here. I've given my piece on why the Elite Eight is far less likely to fall than the Noble Nine this year many times before.

Ganon may very well be underrated when Sonic is finished with him.
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 6:07:57 PM | message detail
Underrated? Oh good grief.

If Ganon does lose, it will be by the tiniest of margins.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 6:08:42 PM | message detail
That still underrates Ganon if he's indirectly stronger.
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Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 6:09:43 PM | message detail
If he's indirectly stronger, he won't have any problems being directly stronger.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 6:10:02 PM | message detail
Noble. Nine. Book it.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
DomaDragoon | Posted 8/26/2006 6:12:01 PM | message detail
Why exactly is there so much complaining about Snake/Mega Mark 3? Not in CS+D per se, but on the board in general.

Especially given that he's stuck in the same division as the only 1 seed he hasn't faced, and Snake's the only other male 1 he didn't fight in 2K5.

Oh, and before I forget - Hooray bracket, hooray Canada, and here's hoping I don't end up in last place.
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Congratulations to Z1mZum, Guru Champion!
www.rpgdl.com - Because everybody loves violent arena battles, right?
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 6:14:12 PM | message detail
Especially given that he's stuck in the same division as the only 1 seed he hasn't faced, and Snake's the only other male 1 he didn't fight in 2K5.

Because Mega Man/Crono and Mega Man/Sonic were closer than either of the Mega Man/Snake matches.

It's just something that no one really wants to see again. The possibility of Snake upsetting is very slim.
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Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/26/2006 6:15:24 PM | message detail
But, MM will likely be fighting either Sonic or Crono, so I don't see the basis in that complaint.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/26/2006 6:16:01 PM | message detail

Given how close Ganon already is to Sonic, plus the addition of Twilight Princess, people entertaining such things are hardly bonkers.


Bonkers is too harsh, but there have been enough situations to show that Sonic is very closely associated with Nintendo. And they both have a common opponent, which I thought was both last year, but apparently it wasn't, either way:

Samus Aran 59.66% 53823
Ganondorf 40.34% 36389
TOTAL VOTES 90212

Sonic the Hedgehog 42.49% 35897
Samus Aran 57.51% 48589
TOTAL VOTES 84486

Whoa, I actually thought Samus did better than that. Well, perhaps this match will be very interesting. I might have to hop on the Ganon > Sonic bandwagon, not just yet though.

In other news, the Battle Royale could be really awesome. I was thinking about it and was wondering if it's possible that more votes might come in at the end of the day rather than around the beginning. Think about it, this isn't a who finishes first scenario, it's just about keeping your character out of last. And, especially for the earlier matches, if Cloud/Link/Mario dominate all the votes, you still have three strong characters scrambling for whatever votes they can get. If Samus and Crono were close enough so that a few hundred votes could make the difference, the later hours of the poll could spike a lot. Should be very interesting.

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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 6:16:15 PM | message detail
Why exactly is there so much complaining about Snake/Mega Mark 3?

It's just really not that good of a match. We have already seen it twice with Mega Man winning both without too much trouble, and there are better matches you can put Mega Man in. I doubt it'll be exciting and it certainly isn't hard to choose in the bracket.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Big Bob | Posted 8/26/2006 6:17:07 PM | message detail
I have Luigi > Zero, and I'm sticking with it.

My gut says it.

Kirby's beating the winner anyway.
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Damned Z1mZum, beating me by one point. I'm gonna be pissed if Toadette makes 2k6 and Mewtwo doesn't.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/26/2006 6:17:45 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: Yoshi/Snake is closer than Ganon/Sonic.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/26/2006 6:18:17 PM | message detail
haha fiction, but that would be the BEST fact ever.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2006 6:18:22 PM | message detail
FACT: Link wins all 5 Battle Royale matches.

FACT: Samus fails to break 8%.

FICTION: Sephiroth beats Cloud in at least one match.

FACT: Clinkarioth will not be the Final Four.

My upset special is the second day with Link, Mario, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Crono alive, Cloud and Sephiroth split the FF7 fanbase. Crono is hurt less by the 3:2 Square:Nintendo ratio, because CT is a separate fanbase (note that FF7/CT received higher votals than FF7/OOT), and he edges out Sephiroth to stay alive. If Crono is not the male bracket winner, then Clinkarothio will be the final four.

FACT: Votals will surpass 175,000 in at least one Battle Royale match.

FACT: Mario beats Cloud in at least one poll.

I can see Mario barely beating Cloud the second day, when there are more Square than Nintendo characters, if Crono wins the male bracket. Otherwise, Mario will not beat Cloud a single time.

FACT: Assuming Crono wins the Male bracket, he avoids SFF.

Well, everyone will suffer from SFF to some degree in the Battle Royale, but Crono will suffer less than the 2 FF7 characters who will divide the fanbase between them. He has a devoted fanbase which is a plus in a battle royale.

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"The black wind blows... one among you will shortly perish."
~Magus
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 6:18:26 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: Yoshi/Snake is closer than Ganon/Sonic.

... Fiction.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
red sox 777 | Posted 8/26/2006 6:21:53 PM | message detail
Fiction: Yoshi/Snake is closer than Ganon/Sonic.
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"The black wind blows... one among you will shortly perish."
~Magus
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 6:26:15 PM | message detail
Vyse
Ness
Frog
Vivi
Revolver Ocelot
Donkey Kong
Diablo
Kefka
Tommy Vercetti

Knuckles
Magus


The most notable 2005 snubs. Brothers, you shall be missed.

http://media.putfile.com/Etta-James---At-Last
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
bobby200614 | Posted 8/26/2006 6:28:35 PM | message detail
Bracket. I see a bracket. *is in shock*

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I ate my family because Z1mZum owned me so hard in the Guru Contest.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/26/2006 6:28:35 PM | message detail
Samus Aran 59.66% 53823
Ganondorf 40.34% 36389
TOTAL VOTES 90212

Sonic the Hedgehog 42.49% 35897
Samus Aran 57.51% 48589
TOTAL VOTES 84486


Something to make me even more confident in Ganon > Sonic? Excellent!

And even if Ganondorf was a little indirectly stronger than Sonic and Crono, there's no way he'd ever get over the SFF hump against Mega Man.

Uh...why wouldn't the SFF go in Ganon's favor there? MM's had all of two SFF matches, and he flopped hard in one of them. It's not like he's some sort of SFF machine or anything. Not that Ganon is either (lol Ganon vs. Robotnik?), but I'd expect any SFF in such a match to be minimal.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/26/2006 6:30:43 PM | message detail
Question. How many times has Yoshi been ahead of Dante in the x-stats? Just curious.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?