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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 348

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 4:17:02 PM | message detail
Sonic/Samus.

I believe TWO people in the BOP took that upset.

Again, overall predictions =/= the board.
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 4:17:10 PM | message detail
I don't remember Sonic/Samus even being debated, though I had Sonic because that was my first bracket.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 4:18:24 PM | message detail
Oh wow, I forgot about the rally characters. Sub, Prince and Falcon make it, while Raiden and Nightmare (;_;) don't.

And 2003's Final Four was pretty predictable too (Link, Cloud, Seph and Mega was it?)
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Redtooth | Posted 8/26/2006 4:18:37 PM | message detail
I wouldn't mind doing the work of the BOP if someone can explain to me how it works in great detail >_>

Same here really. That or doing it together with someone else if no one wants to do it alone...

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
ChidoriNoJutsu | Posted 8/26/2006 4:18:40 PM | message detail
HM was right last time with Vincent. Who's to say he'd be wrong with Ganon>Sonic?

I still have Sonic>Ganon but there's still that possibility he could be right this time too.
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"Not really. In return, I eat your soul. You just don't notice."-lettuce Kefka
Formally know as FRODOLINKSAMUSMASTER
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:18:45 PM | message detail
So... is everyone okay with me doing the BOP? Cause I'll make the topic now if that's the case.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 4:19:20 PM | message detail
HM was right last time with Vincent. Who's to say he'd be wrong with Ganon>Sonic?

Technically, his 'last time' was Star Ocean > Pokemon...
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Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:20:08 PM | message detail
The most disputed first round matches for me are easily Kairi/Claire and Luigi/Zero. Right now, I have Claire and Zero, but they can (and probably will) be easily changed.

I've been thinking about Luigi/Zero, especially. Now, it seems that Luigi is the early board favorite, but Zero actually is ahead in last year's X-Stats, despite the possible bad performance against Mario. However, let's talk about their actual winning performances. Which seems more impressive to you: 63% against Ryu Hayabusa or 66% against KOS-MOS? For me, it's definitely the latter. Also, with New Super Mario Bros. and the building anticipation for Wii, Luigi has reason to gain strength.

My speed bracket has Zero, and there's no way I'm changing that now, but I'm favoring Luigi more and more.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 4:20:15 PM | message detail
That was a whole different contest and doesn't count!

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 4:21:41 PM | message detail
I'll just say right now that Luigi > Zero would absolutely floor me. I'm not changing that pick, I'm not thinking twice. Zero > Luigi, and that's that.

Kairi/Claire scares the crap out of me. I'll be debating that all until lockdown.
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Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:21:44 PM | message detail
What the heck happened to Slow?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:22:12 PM | message detail
What the heck happened to Slow?

He left.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 4:22:26 PM | message detail
Whoa, for a second there I thought you said Zero was Luigi's floor.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 4:22:43 PM | message detail
He left after it became apparent that this bracket was going to be 32 male/32 female and that the 'champions' weren't going to be in the main bracket.
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Commit it to memory.
Kaxon | Posted 8/26/2006 4:22:48 PM | message detail
My first thoughts on the bracket, without reading all the posts in the topic:

- Gordon Freeman vs. Phoenix Wright - I called it! Some guy had a topic about who Gordon would face this year, and based on the fact that he always faces someone with a first and last name, and it's always been someone in either their first or second year of the contest, I was the first one in the topic to say Phoenix.
- SOOOO much wasted potential in this bracket. WHY couldn't he have switched Yuna's and Tifa's divisions? Why is Mega Man in Sora's division, and why does he have a third rematch with Snake instead of finally giving us a Snake/Sonic match instead? In fact:

Message From Kaxon at 2006-08-17 10:38:14
Sorry to bother you again, but with nominations closing today I'd like to make another quick contest suggestion.

If you're planning to have half the bracket for female characters as people have assumed, then most people on board 8 think the most interesting potential female matches are between the trio of Aeris, Tifa, and Zelda. In the villain contest there was a similar situation, where the most interesting match would have been Bowser vs Ganondorf - but instead of facing each other, they lost to Sephiroth one by one. In this contest, we know that the trio would need a huge amount of luck to beat Samus, so I urge you to have two matches between them (such as Aeris vs Tifa, and the winner vs Zelda), and only then have the winner of the three face Samus. This should give us two very good matches, which would be more fun than watching them all lose to Samus. Although this may give Samus an easier path, she's almost guaranteed to win the female bracket anyway, so I'd say it's more important to just have some exciting matches.

Thank you!
Feedback Status: Read - Your message has been read by GameFAQs. No action is required.


Thanks for listening, Ceej.

- There are a few flashes of brilliance, such as the Kirby/Luigi/Zero fourpack, and I'm glad we get Vincent/Ganon, but overall the bracket is a big disappointment. Ceej really needs to get feedback from people who actually care about the contests.
- The banner does look nice though.
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CATS for SC2k6 champion
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:23:14 PM | message detail
Oh whatever, I'm gonna make the topic. If Slow comes back, he can take it back over or let me finish it for this contest or whatever.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
ChidoriNoJutsu | Posted 8/26/2006 4:23:14 PM | message detail
Technically, his 'last time' was Star Ocean > Pokemon...

We're talking about upsets that can actually happen here.
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"Not really. In return, I eat your soul. You just don't notice."-lettuce Kefka
Formally know as FRODOLINKSAMUSMASTER
VectorAgent | Posted 8/26/2006 4:23:19 PM | message detail
He left.

He's such a fussbudget.
therealmnm | Posted 8/26/2006 4:23:28 PM | message detail
The difference between Sonic and Ganon now is not that big.

So Ganon >= Mega Man?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Lopen | Posted 8/26/2006 4:23:35 PM | message detail
63% against Ryu Hayabusa or 66% against KOS-MOS? For me, it's definitely the latter

Really? I don't think Ryu Hayabusa would struggle with KOS-MOS. I'd say Lloyd Irving is closer to KOS-MOS than Ryu Hayabusa is, personally.
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The mission is a failure! Cut the power right now!
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:24:32 PM | message detail
Why would it floor you? Luigi proved himself last year, and has reason to gain now. Would the upset seem nearly as unlikely if 2004 was his first year in a contest?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 4:26:28 PM | message detail

So Ganon >= Mega Man?


I'd have an easier time taking Ganon over Mega Man, personally, even if he's slightly stronger than Sonic.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 4:26:46 PM | message detail
Kairi/Claire scares the crap out of me. I'll be debating that all until lockdown.

Agreed, toughest match in the female half (with Boss/Celes in second). I feel that I may be underrestimating Kairi, but I can't see her worth much. Then again, Claire has had plenty of time to fall from 2002.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:28:37 PM | message detail
Aaaaand... posted. Hopefully it still has the same air of legitimacy without Slow handling it...
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:31:00 PM | message detail
Jill has been in a free fall since 2002, and this is despite the million seller that was REMake. I can only imagine where Claire sits now; she's been absent from gaming for a good five years.

BUT... Kaira strikes me as being so freaking weak. Worse still, I like both of these characters, so even making a fanboy's pick is tough!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
therealmnm | Posted 8/26/2006 4:31:09 PM | message detail
You should have at least given Slow a day or two before you jumped on it...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:32:14 PM | message detail
You should have at least given Slow a day or two before you jumped on it...

He is completely free to take it over as soon as he comes back, assuming he comes back. I'm not operating under the assumption I suddenly own the BOP. I just figured it'd be a good idea to have a topic up one way or the other.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 4:32:53 PM | message detail
Jill has been in a free fall since 2002, and this is despite the million seller that was REMake.

And even with that, I still have Jill > Peach!
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/26/2006 4:35:46 PM | message detail
I never knew Jill vs Peach would actually happen, but Jill is my quick pick, I dunno who to go with really.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:36:29 PM | message detail
I think it's very reasonable to go either way with that one, Moltar. It's possible for Peach to completely bomb, but I personally wouldn't expect that from a SSBM character.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 4:39:20 PM | message detail
Honestly, I had Squall > Luigi in 2k3 from day one. Zero has always outclassed Luigi as far as I'm concerned...
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Commit it to memory.
rpgapzx | Posted 8/26/2006 4:39:21 PM | message detail
I thought about quoting everyone yelling "Waste Potential" but thought this would suffice.

If we see every interesting match every year, what would that leave for years down the line? Sure new releases/cameos/boosts come out, but they don't effect everyone. Think of the long-term people.
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Poker is living proof that men are the irrational sex.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:42:38 PM | message detail
Heh, I just found a very obvious piece of evidence that pretty much GUARANTEES Zero > Luigi.

*guards evidence as fiercely as a New England bum guards his last can of Boston BBQ baked beans*
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 8/26/2006 4:43:53 PM | message detail
Just like the evidence that guarantees Magus over Knuckles mirite
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:45:15 PM | message detail
You're wrong, young fella! This is good, tasty evidence! Want a bite... wait! NO!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 4:46:06 PM | message detail
Looking at the whole Zero/Luigi match, I figured I'd check out how the stats predicted that match to go. Depending on how much you think Zero got SFFed brings up some different results -- and if you somehow think Luigi is too high.

-- No SFF. Zero beats Luigi with 51.7%.
-- 1% SFF. Zero beats Luigi with 52.81%.
-- 2% SFF. Zero beats Luigi with 54.29%.

Zero certainly looks good in the match, but Luigi does have reason to boost this year. It wouldn't be shocking to see Luigi win at all, really.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 4:47:28 PM | message detail
I'll put it this way -- if Luigi beats Zero, I'll be calling for Snake > Mega Man.
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Commit it to memory.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:50:44 PM | message detail
I'm so crazy I have Sonic > Snake > Mega Man. THAT'S RIGHT!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 4:51:04 PM | message detail
Luigi/Zero...I think Luigi will boost and squeak it out, and then Kirby will beat Luigi with a hint of SFF.

However, if Zero wins, he'll probably win the four-pack.
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:52:12 PM | message detail
I can't see Luigi losing to Kirby.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 4:56:28 PM | message detail
These are old, but they're good to highlight how useless Amy is!!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=581
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=582

<3

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:56:31 PM | message detail
Slow, it's not a Tournament of Champions, it's a Battle Royale.

You can come back now!

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For Your Consideration: Joanna Dark
For My Consideration: How badly Z1mZum owned me in the BSE Guru Contest!
charmander6000 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:57:00 PM | message detail
After seeing Kirby's performance on Bowser I think he should at least be the favorite going into Kirby/Luigi.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:58:10 PM | message detail
I think Jill Valentine is a bit more popular than given credit for. It just seems like Ryu H underperformed against Sora in 2K4, but not so much against Jill to me. And, with Leon Kennedy's success I can't see Jill or Claire dropping that much.

Let's put Jill Valentine/Peach in another perspective:
Jill = Luigi in 2K3 (in fact, Jill by a touch), and Peach should be a good deal weaker than Luigi. I know that was 3 years ago, but Jill shouldn't be counted out. I've still got Peach in the bracket, myself, really because of SSBM. (I think it helped Peach by far the most of any Mario character) But, I have Claire over Kairi...funny how I'm getting less confident with that as time goes by.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/26/2006 4:58:14 PM | message detail
Oh, and thanks for helping me get Jo back into the Contest, Board 8! But as a four seed? Wow, never expected that!

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For Your Consideration: Joanna Dark
For My Consideration: How badly Z1mZum owned me in the BSE Guru Contest!
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 4:59:40 PM | message detail
Let's not forget Super Princess Peach either!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 5:00:25 PM | message detail
Here's another comparison. Let's assume Luigi and Yoshi are indirectly equal in strength (a fair assumption, right?).

2004: Zero gets 44% on Mega Man.
2005: Yoshi gets 32% on Mega Man.

Was there SFF in the second match? Yes. Is Zero still a beast? Yes. I realized I was spending far too much thinking about last year and forgot who I was dealing with. This is the same Zero who scored 48% on Sonic and 44% on Mega Man in consecutive years. Luigi had a very good 2005, but Zero has had one hell of a contest history and was simply unfortunate enough to be put in the way of an Italian tank last year.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/26/2006 5:01:00 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 5:02:09 PM | message detail
For some reason people are acting like Luigi should be the favorite, which boggles my mind. Yeah, Luigi is nearly equal to Zero...but Zero is underrated and Luigi is potentially overrated. You know who was in this exact same position against Luigi last year?

KOS-MOS, and we *all* know how that turned out.
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Commit it to memory.
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/26/2006 5:08:31 PM | message detail
Dante vs. Yoshi is the only match that's giving me problems. The others I've decided on but this one hangs in the air. The two were very even in 2003 and 2004 but Dante shot ahead in 2005 (probably due to DMC3).

Any chance that this holds or Dante goes ahead? I know DMC4 is due soon so I'm wondering if that would be a factor.
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