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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 348

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 2:12:42 PM | message detail
Link > Cloud > Sephiroth > Mario > Crono > Samus.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
_Harmonica_ | Posted 8/26/2006 2:12:58 PM | message detail
Link > Cloud > Sephiroth > Mario > Crono > Samus for me.
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Harmonica
Not even Midgar Zolom stands a chance against Guru winner Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:13:33 PM | message detail
...and come to think of it, as much as people were hyping the Wii/TP to release in the middle of this contest to "shake up things"...what the heck do you think changes due to that? Ganondorf > Sonic? Yoshi > Snake? Mario surviving longer than Sephy?

I don't see much, if anything changing because of it, other than us losing our last debatable Link/Cloud match.
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Commit it to memory.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:13:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, I'm actually most disappointed about Sephiroth. Of all the FF characters, and especially the recurring ones, he had the most to gain. Maybe bitter Samus fans will vote for him over Seph, and shirk the nintendo ones...or not?
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:13:58 PM | message detail
Here's a thought: since they'll technically be battling under a different format, is it possible that the Link/Cloud finale won't have any pics?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 2:14:28 PM | message detail
Here's a thought: since they'll technically be battling under a different format, is it possible that the Link/Cloud finale won't have any pics?

Doubt it.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Z1mZum: Beating my ass mercilessly since 2006.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:14:51 PM | message detail
I hope we get pics for the whole Royale...they could be pretty ****ing badass considering the range of characters.
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Commit it to memory.
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:15:02 PM | message detail
Why is everyone putting Samus last in the Royale???
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/26/2006 2:15:45 PM | message detail
Crono > Samus > Mario > Sephiroth > Link > Cloud Strife

I have no idea if I'm banking too much on the FF7 spinoffs.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 2:15:58 PM | message detail
...and come to think of it, as much as people were hyping the Wii/TP to release in the middle of this contest to "shake up things"...what the heck do you think changes due to that? Ganondorf > Sonic? Yoshi > Snake? Mario surviving longer than Sephy?

The bracket is setup in such a way that the release of the Wii probably won't affect too many matches. Nintendo characters should perform much better as a result, even if they don't win, but it probably won't affect that much. The most prominent match is Sonic v. Ganon.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/26/2006 2:16:07 PM | message detail
Why is everyone putting Samus last in the Royale???

Link + Mario SFF.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 8/26/2006 2:16:21 PM | message detail
Why is everyone putting Samus last in the Royale???

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2122
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:17:34 PM | message detail
Ahh ok

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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 2:18:45 PM | message detail

I have no idea if I'm banking too much on the FF7 spinoffs.


They have to be larger than Twilight Princess.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:19:16 PM | message detail
How many of the 32 female entrants do you guys think Ariel could beat?

I'd say 27 or 28 at least.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
Part of your woooorld!
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:19:55 PM | message detail
Gannie>>>>>Vincent w/ Dirge

TP has got to much hype.
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
therealmnm | Posted 8/26/2006 2:20:31 PM | message detail
Samus is losing the Battle Royale because she has to fight off SFF. Cloud and Sephiroth are safe since they don't SFF each other. Both will get decent support throughout. Everyone else? Link and Mario are going to take a lot of the votes that Samus would normally receive. PLUS Samus has to fight off Crono/Mega Man/Sonic, all who have pretty hardcore fanbases. It's pretty much going to be hardcore Metroid fans voting for Samus. We all know what happens there. The Battle Royale will basically be a battle of who has the most hardcore fans in the first couple of matches.

Oh, and I'd even go out on a limb and say that if Sonic makes the Battle Royale, he does better than Mario and Samus in the first poll! I'm dead serious...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Tediz247 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:21:00 PM | message detail
If hype meant much, Snake would win the main bracket.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Phediuk | Posted 8/26/2006 2:21:42 PM | message detail
First round looks pretty easy. Only had to think about Yoshi/Riku and Luigi/Zero.

And WTF at Freeman winning a match. Seriously, Ceej. W. T. F.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/26/2006 2:22:15 PM | message detail
They have to be larger than Twilight Princess.

Right, plus the Wii will probably be priced and dated while the contest is going on. Better be safe and change.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:23:37 PM | message detail
But TP's release date is sooner then SSBB or MGS4. There is going to be lots of Zelda support.
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/26/2006 2:24:20 PM | message detail
And WTF at Freeman winning a match. Seriously, Ceej. W. T. F.

It'll kill that stupid joke once and for all, at least.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:24:57 PM | message detail
Or cement it forever, if Gordon does the impossible and loses.
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Commit it to memory.
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:25:37 PM | message detail
PW could upset. Its a definite possibility.
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
Tediz247 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:25:39 PM | message detail
Correction: There's going to be lots of Link support, which won't mean a thing since TP will probably already be out when the Battle Royale happens. Maybe some hype for Zelda, but that won't mean much either, other than getting her past Aeris. There hasn't even been a screenshot of Ganondorf, and it's not like he's a character you can get excited about.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 2:26:25 PM | message detail
There hasn't even been a screenshot of Ganondorf, and it's not like he's a character you can get excited about.

I beg to differ, sir.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:26:30 PM | message detail
Unless you're HM!

Who bet his account on Ganon > Sonic LOLZ
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Commit it to memory.
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:27:17 PM | message detail
But if screenshots of Ganon are released or Zelda is confirmed playable? That could really mess things up.
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:30:42 PM | message detail
Haste2 gives the chances of an upset (seed-wise) for every match! I just felt like doing this so I can say, "See? I told you it could happen!" if a huge upset occured. (And also to help get stuff in my head) ...Okay, once we hit Round 2 I''ll just give the chances for each potential advancer, so it'll be doubly confusing!

Round 1
Samus/Nidoran F - 0%
Ada Wong/Jade - 10% (don't know much about either)
Rikku/Lenneth - 0%
Kairi/Claire - 70%

Tifa/Ivy - 0%
The Boss/Celes - 45% (Celes HAS to win....!!!!)
Jill Valentine/Sheena- 5%
Peach/Daisy - 0%

Zelda/Carmen - 0%
Terra/Kerrigan - 15%
KOS-MOS/Amy - 0%
Aeris/Marle - 0%

Yuna/Roll - 0%
Joanna Dark/Cortana - 25% (no idea where Cortana stands)
Chun-Li/Kasumi - 80%
Lara/Alyx - 5%

Snake/Soma - 0%
Squall/Tidus - 5%
Riku/Yoshi - 90%
Dante/Ryu - 1%

Sora/Tingle - 0%
Phoenix/Gordon - 80% (GFNW phails!!!)
Kratos/Ryu - 95%
MM/Axel - 0%

Sonic/CATS - 0%
Ganondorf/Vincent - 65%
Kirby/PoP - 1%
Luigi/Zero - 65%

Crono/C. Falcon - 0%
Bowser/Leon - 0%...shucks.
Auron/Alucard - 1%
Master Chief/Sub-Zero - 2%

Round 2
Samus - 100%
Rikku - 80%; Kairi - 5%; Claire - 15%
Tifa - 100%
Peach - 80%; Jill - 20%
Zelda - 100%
Aeris - 100%
Yuna - 100%
Chun-Li - 80%; Kasumi - 15%; Lara - 5%

Snake - 85%; Squall - 15%
Yoshi - 60%; Riku - 2%; Dante - 38%
Sora - 100%
Mega Man - 100%
Sonic - 55%; Ganondorf - 15%; Vincent - 25%
Kirby - 40%; Luigi - 15%; Zero - 45%
Crono - 95%; Bowser - 5%
Auron - 80%; Master Chief - 18%; Alucard - 2%

Round 3
Samus - 100%
Tifa - 95%; Peach - 5%
Zelda - 60%; Aeris - 40%
Yuna - 85%; Chun-Li - 15%

Snake - 85%; Squall - 15%
Mega Man - 99%; Sora - 1%
Sonic - 55%; Ganondorf - 15%; Vincent - 25%
Crono - 90%; Bowser - 5%; Auron - 5%

Round 4
Samus - 100%
Zelda - 60%; Aeris - 40%
Mega Man - 75%; Snake - 20%; Squall - 5%
Crono - 50%; Sonic - 25%; Ganondorf - 5%; Vincent - 15%; Auron/Bowser - 5%

Round 5
Samus - 99%
Crono - 40%; Mega Man - 20%; Sonic - 20%; Snake - 10%; Vincent - 5%; other - 5%

Round 6
Samus - 45%; Crono - 25%; Mega Man - 10%; Sonic - 10%; Snake - 5%; other - 5%

Oh, sure, and now watch Samus fail to win the female side or something now. I'm forgetting the Battle Royale for now...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
Master Moltar | Posted 8/26/2006 2:30:44 PM | message detail
The one Saturday I go out, the bracket goes up. Oh well.

First thing is first, I see quite a bit of "Stats Topic Matches" there. Interesting. Also, as usual, much wasted potential. Overall it looks ok, I think I'm going to break it down in a minute.

Ganondorf vs. Vincent - Ha ha, oh wow. Go Go Ganon!!
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Moltar Status: Bracket filled and ready to go.
2006 is the year of Samus Aran
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 8/26/2006 2:31:01 PM | message detail
No Rinoa makes me sad. I guess she's even more hated than I thought.
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Owned by Z1mZum in the Guru Contest.
therealmnm | Posted 8/26/2006 2:31:59 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS/Amy - 0%

What? Come on now, Amy has a chance. KOS-MOS isn't that popular.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:33:18 PM | message detail
Yeah, I actually struggled a bit on KOS-MOS/Amy, though I still give KOS-MOS the win. Amy should be more well known, at the very least.
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Commit it to memory.
SonicRaptor | Posted 8/26/2006 2:33:25 PM | message detail
Ada Wong/Jade - 10% (don't know much about either)

Beyond Good & Evil is an awesome game: everyone here needs to play it.
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Today's Subliminal Thought Is:
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:34:31 PM | message detail
B G&E is #8 in my top ten games but I still dont think she beats Ada Wong. Damn Resi 4!
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:34:42 PM | message detail
I'd say being in a supporting role in Resident Evil 4 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> that by miles, though.
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Commit it to memory.
Tediz247 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:36:05 PM | message detail
Heh, I didn't notice that Rinoa got snubbed. Still doesn't make up for the lack of Magus/Knuckles...
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Haste_2 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:39:25 PM | message detail
Okay, I'll give Amy a 5% chance...she just struck me as quite a bit weaker than Robotnik, and I wouldn't take Robotnik over KOS-MOS. :p

Oh, and I have Beyond Good & Evil in my backlog...I'll get to it some time.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
therealmnm | Posted 8/26/2006 2:39:34 PM | message detail
Where's Leonhart? We need to start up an Amy > KOS-MOS bandwagon rumbling on the board. <_<;
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 2:39:37 PM | message detail
What? Come on now, Amy has a chance. KOS-MOS isn't that popular.

I'd be shocked if Amy won that match. I know KOS-MOS isn't too popular...but it's Amy.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:40:38 PM | message detail
My Hard/Debatable/sometimes wishful matches

Ada Wong/Jade (because I don't know who either are)
Kairi/Claire
The Boss/Celes -eh, it could be interesting, I don't think so.

oh and, not this this is really debateable but
Joanna/Cortana - come on, that's a funny match. Halo/Perfect Dark? And props to Cortana for making it in. Joanna takes it, though.

I feel like Squall/Tidus should be here just because Tidus isn't a complete loser.

Riku/Yoshi is at least somewhat noteworthy.
Gordon Freeman/Phoenix Wright. It is gf, after all.

Ganondorf/Vincent Valentine
Zero/Luigi (and Zero should never be seeded this low!)

Rikku/Kairi (ok, this isn't debateable, I"m just wishful)
Jill/Peach

is Yuna/Joanna debateable? I don't even remember where the two rank.
Yoshi/Dante is fun.

Sonic/Ganondorf- that said, I have Sonic.
Kirby/Zero (or Luigi) -If it is Kirby/Luigi though, 48% on Bowser is greater than 45% on Yoshi.

Auron/Master Chief - Maybe it will finally be Mc's day in the sun, please? No? Okay, fine.

Zelda/Aeris
Chun-Li/Yuna

Crono/Mega Man
Crono/Samus




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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
NewLib | Posted 8/26/2006 2:49:11 PM | message detail
A potential Zelda/Samus match is going to be dangeriously close to the Wii launch.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:52:10 PM | message detail
And the gap that Zelda has is *still* too immense for me to even consider it. That could be on the release of TP and I'd have no problems taking Samus.
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Commit it to memory.
MastaHealer | Posted 8/26/2006 2:53:05 PM | message detail
TP and MP:C boosts could make that match crazy. And if Zelda's playable? O_O
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*is wavedash101*
Satai gets Biggest Surprise EVER Award! ^_^
Tediz247 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:53:38 PM | message detail
Matches that are giving me headaches:

Kairi/Claire
The Boss/Celes (Terra is slightly higher than Big Boss, but I think The Boss is equal to or stronger, and Celes is slightly weaker)
Ganon/Vincent
Luigi/Zero

Rikku/Kairi (KH2 did do quite a lot, it seems...)
Yoshi/Dante
Sonic/Ganon/Vincent
Kirby/Luigi/Zero

Zelda/Aeris
Yuna/Chun-Li

Snake/Mega Man

Samus/Crono

Third and Fourth place in the Battle Royale
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
ChidoriNoJutsu | Posted 8/26/2006 2:54:39 PM | message detail
Don't forget MP3. It's supposed to a launch title as well.

Not like Samus needs it and not like it would help her much anyways.
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"Not really. In return, I eat your soul. You just don't notice."-lettuce Kefka
Formally know as FRODOLINKSAMUSMASTER
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/26/2006 2:54:43 PM | message detail
A potential Zelda/Samus match is going to be dangeriously close to the Wii launch.

Now that's way too much for my tastes.

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
NewLib | Posted 8/26/2006 2:56:00 PM | message detail
Mario went from beating Cloud to losing by more than 60-40 to Sephiroth from a combo of SMS release date and KH.

Ganondorf lost to Samus less than 60-40 and I generally believe he isnt that much stronger than Zelda.

I still think Samus will win, but if TP is released on that day precident says it can be done especially if the SFF turns againist Samus.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/26/2006 2:56:17 PM | message detail
Here's my problems:

Yoshi/Dante/Riku: I have Dante > Riku, but... eh...
Zero/Luigi: I've got Luigi, either one loses to Kirby, though.
Celes/The Boss: Celes, but... ... ... toss up.
Jill/Peach: I've got Peach, but Jill could win...
Zelda/Aeris: I've got Zelda, but Aeris has the potential, I guess
Yuna/Chun-Li: Yuna should win this, but Chun-Li's not weak
Ganondorf/Vincent: >_< Ganon?
And then every match after Crono/Auron that Crono could potentially be in. Crono/Sonic, Crono/Mega Man... even Crono/Samus. >_<
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
Please nominate K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing) (Male) and Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie) (Female)
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/26/2006 2:56:48 PM | message detail
...hmm...the one good thing about this contest is if we get a lot of mid-contest boosts, even if they don't mean anything in deciding the match winners they could make the stats borked, which would set up for a potentially AMAZING 2k7 contest.
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Commit it to memory.