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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 347

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/24/2006 6:43:09 PM | message detail
Zero Mission is the king of the Metroid games.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/25/2006 2:00:08 AM | message detail
You know, just how big of a secret must it be for Nintendo to not show anything Ganon related since Twilight Princess's announcement? We're about three months -- at the absolute most -- away from the release and we've seen nothing. That role must be insane for them to not have shown anything, only confirming that he is the villain of the game.

"No discussion of Twilight Princess' enemies can end without mentioning Ganon," Yoshiyuki said. "I know that everyone's wondering what's going on with Link's old nemesis. All I can say now is, we're preparing more than you could possibly ever, ever expect."

Predict the boost.


(We've been over this before, but we're talking about Metroid games and need to revisit this topic to get back to the great stuff -- lol bowser > ganon)

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/25/2006 2:07:10 AM | message detail
Woah, is that a post with "Heroic Mario"?!
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/25/2006 2:10:06 AM | message detail
Yeah, Ganon may genuinely be poised to take a spot in the elite, but that's ONLY if he's as close as we think he is right now.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/25/2006 3:52:40 AM | message detail
Personally I don't see Ganondorf bbreaking 45% on Sonic, Megaman or even Solid Snake. But I've always hated Ganondork (Give me the evil blue PIG Ganon instead)so maybe it's just my antifanboyism.
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jonthomson | Posted 8/25/2006 4:36:02 AM | message detail
I could possibly see Ganon taking down Sonic post-TP. But it'd be an upset pick for certain.

I was hoping we'd get a bracket soon to be able to start on the 1st... either it's later than that, or we're going to have a very quick prediction turnaround...
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 8/25/2006 4:46:29 AM | message detail
At this point, I would bet a large sum of money that we're going to start on October 1st or September 15th.
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/25/2006 5:00:16 AM | message detail
I hope in a fun twist Vaati and Agrahnim team up to be the villains of Twilight Princess and Ganondorf isn't even in it.
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Kaxon | Posted 8/25/2006 8:32:05 AM | message detail
Personally I'm hoping the twist is that Ganon discovers that Tingle is actually his brother, and he quits being a villain and dresses up as a fairy instead. And then Vaati and Agahnim are the main villains of the game.
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wavedash101 | Posted 8/25/2006 8:35:51 AM | message detail
I believe Ganon's in it but I do not think he is the main villian. It is someone totally new this time. I believe this was announced. >_>
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/25/2006 8:50:05 AM | message detail
I hope in a fun twist Vaati and Agrahnim team up to be the villains of Twilight Princess and Ganondorf isn't even in it.

Agahnim was essentially Ganon anyway!!

I believe Ganon's in it but I do not think he is the main villian. It is someone totally new this time. I believe this was announced.

Err, no, it was never announced that there would be a new villain. The fact that Ganon was confirmed for the game seems to imply to me that he'll be continuing his role as the villain in the series, as it should be. <<

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"Winning isn't about being lucky, it's about being bold." -- Captain Falcon
KingBartz | Posted 8/25/2006 10:50:02 AM | message detail
^^^

CONCUR'D

Ganon is always the villain, and he always will be. To do otherwise would be like not making Eggman the Sonic Villain.

These set roles are what make the games fun. Shadow the Hedgehog shows what happens when you try to change the formula.

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Phediuk | Posted 8/25/2006 11:05:13 AM | message detail
Showing no Ganon before the release of Twilight Princess is no big surprise, considering Nintendo didn't even mention him before Wind Waker was released.
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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/25/2006 12:03:42 PM | message detail
Any of you guys think Mega Man ZX will give MM a significant boost?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/25/2006 1:26:57 PM | message detail
Personally I don't see Ganondorf bbreaking 45% on Sonic, Megaman or even Solid Snake.

Ganondorf should easily break 45% on him post-TP. I don't see why he wouldn't.
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WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/25/2006 1:28:37 PM | message detail
Ganondorf is stronger than Bowser if you look at their performances on Sephiroth, and Bowser damn well near beat Solid Snake. Looking at that, Ganondorf has a legitimate chance of beating Snake right now without TP.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/25/2006 1:34:49 PM | message detail
Ganon would get 45.19% on Sonic based off of Diablo already, not to mention Ganon getting 51.65% on Bowser based off of Sephiroth...thinking he can't get 45% on Solid Snake -- whether it's before or after LoZ:TP -- is ludicrous.
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Read_Only_Thx | Posted 8/25/2006 2:09:39 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: Mario would beat Sephiroth if he looked like Goku in overalls with a red cap.

<3~^\Nidoran F > Samus/^~<3
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swirIdude | Posted 8/25/2006 2:20:27 PM | message detail
Fiction. DBZ's not popular enough to do that. And in a real fight, it would take Mario five episodes to attack, thus Sephiroth can Masamune him right from the start.
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The *only* good thing about this contest is that Ceej might share with us the split between female/male nominations for Samus. ~creativename
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/25/2006 9:12:28 PM | message detail
Honestly, I think Bowser > Ganondorf now.

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swirIdude | Posted 8/25/2006 9:13:50 PM | message detail
If Ganondorf does have an amazingly awesome role in Twilight Princess, does Ganondorf beat Bowser? I'd have to say the two are close to equals right now, so I'd say yes.
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The *only* good thing about this contest is that Ceej might share with us the split between female/male nominations for Samus. ~creativename
Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/25/2006 9:14:37 PM | message detail
If Ganondorf is favored stastistics wise I believe Bowser could rSFF Ganondorf.

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...Z1mZum owned my B1mBum in the Guru Contest...
swirIdude | Posted 8/25/2006 9:15:55 PM | message detail
But I don't see the basis for it. Sure Bowser isn't as much of a fanbase leech as Ganondorf, but we do know that the Zelda series is bigger than the Mario fanbase. It's hard for me to see a Mario character rSFF a Zelda character.
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The *only* good thing about this contest is that Ceej might share with us the split between female/male nominations for Samus. ~creativename
Haste_2 | Posted 8/25/2006 9:16:10 PM | message detail
Well, it's Friday night and we still have no bracket, and we probably won't have it Saturday or Sunday, either. Considering we haven't had much less than a month to predict the bracket before the contest's start, the contest will almost surely start October 1st, as I predicted a couple weeks ago. :[

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/25/2006 9:16:46 PM | message detail
Once TP is released I'm taking Ganon over Bowser no questions asked.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 9:16:58 PM | message detail
Ganon would probably get a significant boost from Twilight Princess even if it didn't feature him at all. I take Bowser > Ganondorf now, and so obviously have Snake > Ganondorf, but if that match takes place after TP I'm very likely to change it.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 9:20:39 PM | message detail
Considering how the bracket looks and how noms went, though, I could easily see Snake/Ganon in the second round if they were to meet, which should be before TP. Third round is iffy...but what Snake doesn't want is for Ganon to be in Sora's division (assuming the winner of the two meets up in the Elite Eight). That's about as advantageous for Ganon as you can get without having TP release on the day of the match.
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swirIdude | Posted 8/25/2006 9:38:22 PM | message detail
Well if Bowser can almost beat Snake, Ganon sure could even without TP. That would be a great match.
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The *only* good thing about this contest is that Ceej might share with us the split between female/male nominations for Samus. ~creativename
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/25/2006 9:39:14 PM | message detail
I'd be tempted to take Ganon over Snake, and I was one of the people that didn't think Bowser had a good shot at it last year.

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Master Moltar | Posted 8/25/2006 9:39:21 PM | message detail
All this Ganon boosting talk pleases me. Continue!
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/25/2006 9:40:47 PM | message detail
It could possibly depend on how much that sprite screwed Snake.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 9:40:50 PM | message detail
Because Ganon couldn't possibly be weaker than Bowser! No, not in million years, despite the fact that even taking their matches against Sephiroth as legit leaves open the possibility for Bowser to be stronger due to how close they were in the first place!
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wavedash101 | Posted 8/25/2006 9:44:29 PM | message detail
Id take Bowser over Ganon IF it took place after SMG released. And if we dont get the damn bracket soon it might. >_>
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 9:44:57 PM | message detail
Meh, Bowser could be every inch of what the stats say and Ganon could still conceivably lose to Snake. Even if you don't buy Bowser being able to rSFF Ganon, that doesn't mean the Koopa King can't be indirectly stronger in the first place.

Although if I were to take a wild shot on any overrating connected to Snake...didn't the Mario/Snake match happen right as the MGS4 trailer hit the scene and it was all over GameFAQ's front page (thanks to Gamespot)? Heck, that could have overrated Snake just as easily.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/25/2006 9:45:43 PM | message detail
I never said Bowser couldn't be stronger than Ganon, in a direct match-up, I'd be confused as hell as to who I'd take. I'd probably side with Ganon, simply because I feel like his x-stat position has sucked nuts every year, and because of other reasons, think he's stronger than where he is in the x-stats. In 2K3, we have the Magus ordeal, but I sincerely doubt anyone takes Magus to actually beat Ganon today, thusly even if he is overrated by Magus in 2K3, it's not to all that bad of an extent. Now in 2K4 and 2K5 you see all the Ninty characters boosting, but in 2K4 Ganon can't show his increase in strength thanks to getting SFFed into the ground, and given his 2K3 numbers, and then in 2K5, we have Mario/Samus, and I think it's been pretty well documented what my feelings on that match are. I have absolutely no problem putting Samus over Mario, and would probably put her on the level of 2K4 Seph. Which is more than enough to make Ganon > Snake a very real possibility.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 9:49:27 PM | message detail
even if he is overrated by Magus in 2K3, it's not to all that bad of an extent.

Tidus, who lost to Ganon in 2k3 (not Magus), is projected to lose to Ganondorf 60-40 in 2k4 when he went 50/50 the year before.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 9:50:09 PM | message detail
Not that Ganon can't be a legitimate near-elite now...but Ganondorf 2k3 is a friggin' chump.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/25/2006 9:51:54 PM | message detail
From FlamboyantSpy Posted 8/26/2006 12:16:46 AM #375
Once TP is released I'm taking Ganon over Bowser no questions asked.

I'd take that now. I think it's silly to do otherwise, given that they shared an opponent two days apart from one another in the villains contest. and if either Ganon or Bowser have gone up since then, Ganon has.

~*ST*~
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/25/2006 9:53:06 PM | message detail
Well, I would take Ganon over Snake right now, but if the match didn't happen in the sprite round, I'd expect Snake to win. I think Bowser would have performed substantially worse if his match against Snake had been a round earlier or later.

http://www.bracketmaker.com/tmenu.cfm?tid=173345

Personally, I see Ganon being somewhat stronger than Zelda, and Bowser somewhere between the two. After TP though, Ganon beats Snake even without the sprite round, and Zelda could come close.

Not that Ganon can't be a legitimate near-elite now...but Ganondorf 2k3 is a friggin' chump.

I'm curious: how would you rank the Tiduses in terms of strength? I would expect 2k3 to be one of his better years. I also think it likely that 2k3 Magus is stronger than Magus 2k5.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/25/2006 9:53:37 PM | message detail
Tidus, who lost to Ganon in 2k3 (not Magus), is projected to lose to Ganondorf 60-40 in 2k4 when he went 50/50 the year before.

Fair enough, but I think any Nintendo boosting negates how overrated he was thanks to Magus in 2K3, I know I'm definitely in the minority on this one, and if there was one character that had a chance to pull a Magus this year, it would sure as hell be Ganondorf. Still, I think his strength is legitimate as far as x-stats go, if not underrated.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/25/2006 9:54:19 PM | message detail
It's a Nintendo SFF match. There's not much point to comparing common opponents. I'm still not sure if Mario would have broken 70% on Frog last year, and we all saw what happened to the gal who did.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/25/2006 9:54:32 PM | message detail
I'd take that now. I think it's silly to do otherwise, given that they shared an opponent two days apart from one another in the villains contest. and if either Ganon or Bowser have gone up since then, Ganon has.

So would I probably, but I can see how someone could make a debate for Bowser, post TP you'd have to be out of your mind.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 9:57:31 PM | message detail
2k3 was probably Tidus' best year, and even then I have a bad feeling about putting him over Dante.

And Magus 2k5 is overrated somewhere in the whole mess...I'm just not sure if it's him overperforming, Knuckles overperforming, or Vincent overperforming that does it.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 10:01:43 PM | message detail
I'd be tempted to take Bowser in a rematch if Snake in SSBB wasn't still causing buzz all around. He's had NSMB while Ganon has had nothing...I don't see what's wrong with that pick, at least indirectly.

And direct performances on common opponents close in time don't necessarily ensure that the winner goes exactly that way. Mega Man clearly outperformed Mario on Sephy in 2k3 (while some might argue that he was stronger then, I hesitate). Zero clearly outperformed Snake on Mega Man in 2k4. It doesn't always turn out like the stats would show, y'know...
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/25/2006 10:08:33 PM | message detail
And direct performances on common opponents close in time don't necessarily ensure that the winner goes exactly that way. Mega Man clearly outperformed Mario on Sephy in 2k3 (while some might argue that he was stronger then, I hesitate). Zero clearly outperformed Snake on Mega Man in 2k4. It doesn't always turn out like the stats would show, y'know...

So, you think that if Frog and Zero's positions in 2k4 had been switched, Snake would still have won?
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Super Luigi | Posted 8/25/2006 10:11:15 PM | message detail
I'd take Bowser over Ganon. And who the hell would pick Ganon over Snake?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/25/2006 10:12:27 PM | message detail
Depends on where you place the blame for Frog's fluke. If it was all Frog (CT sprite overperforming, bandwagon), then I do take Snake in that match. If it had to do with Solid ****, then I of course take Zero -- as well as a LOT of others -- over Snake.

However, Snake went out to Mega Man, which is what his value is based on. I don't see Zero beating *that* Snake.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/25/2006 10:13:32 PM | message detail
So, you think that if Frog and Zero's positions in 2k4 had been switched, Snake would still have won?

Absolutely.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/25/2006 10:13:52 PM | message detail
And who the hell would pick Ganon over Snake?

It's not like it's a foolish pick or anything.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/25/2006 10:15:15 PM | message detail
I like how people are taking a 1% difference between Ganon and Bowser on a common opponent automatically means that Ganon is stronger than Bowser. Random fluctuation anyone? A concentrated last ditch effort by fans to take down Sephiroth? Hell, just about anything can make up that 1% or so between Bowser and Ganon's performances on Sephy. Bowser probably having more hardcore fans alone can be enough to make that difference up. Bowser and Ganondorf are more or less equals. I definitely wouldn't use a 1% difference as a deciding factor to determine who is stronger. As Karma Hunter said before, Bowser could already be the stronger one. I don't exactly buy all this talk of Ganon being stronger than Snake just because he outdid Bowser by a tad against Sephiroth and Bowser's nearly taking out Snake...
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