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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 346

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 3:11:41 PM | message detail
For that mock bracket, I'd swap Dante with Kirby, and Vivi with DK. Dante/Magus is a much better match than Kirby/Magus, and Master Chief/Vivi is a spectacular trap match, whereas we just saw MC/DK last year.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 3:12:24 PM | message detail
Oh, and the switch also gives us Kirby/Yoshi, which is also a much better match.
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Lopen | Posted 8/20/2006 3:15:51 PM | message detail
The funny thing about Vivi/MC is... is it a casual trap, or a "LOL X-Stats" trap? I would probably take Master Chief, actually.
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/20/2006 3:15:51 PM | message detail
Dante/Magus is a much better match than Kirby/Magus, and Master Chief/Vivi is a spectacular trap match, whereas we just saw MC/DK last year.

These changes would be quite awesome, especially Dante/Magus.

Oh, and the switch also gives us Kirby/Yoshi, which is also a much better match.

No idea who I would pick there...but I'm leaning toward Kirby for some reason.

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 3:18:51 PM | message detail
MC/Vivi is testing how much faith one has in MC's placement this year. He beats Vivi 56-44 going by the 2k5 stats, but he nearly lost to DK whereas Vivi pounded the ape a year before. Your choice.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/20/2006 3:21:40 PM | message detail
I'd feel rather safe with Master Chief, myself.

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2006 3:22:33 PM | message detail
I'd go with Vivi, though I think Vivi wouldn't win by much.....
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It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Lopen | Posted 8/20/2006 3:22:37 PM | message detail
Well, putting it that way, I guess MC is technically the "LOL X-Stats" trap too. But I think most people here would be picking Vivi due to what you said... DK going 50-50 with MC, and Vivi beating DK 56-44 the year before. That's what I meant by the stats trap.
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.
Kaxon | Posted 8/20/2006 3:23:52 PM | message detail
Comments on the bracket...

1 Solid Snake
8 Tingle

4 Leon Kennedy
5 Tidus


This 4-pack is just fine, I'd say. Pretty good 4/5 match, which is usually all you're going to get in a 1/8/4/5 4-pack (not counting Sora's division). Snake is the right opponent for Tingle.

3 Luigi
6 Knuckles

2 Ganondorf
7 Prince of Persia


This one, however, I'm not too fond of. Luigi vs Knuckles is a fine match, but Ganondorf is one of the most debated characters around, and you're only giving him one interesting match (against Snake). Unless, of course, Knuckles pulls another miracle upset - which would be incredibly awesome, but I wouldn't count on it. And if it did happen, you'd have Snake/Knuckles 4 on your hands - no thanks. This division would become way more interesting if you moved your 3 Bowser / 6 Vincent match here.

1 Sora
8 Captain Falcon

4 Auron
5 Zero


Good 4-pack. CF is the right 8 seed for Sora. KH2 makes Auron/Zero an interesting match, and the second round match should also be a decent one.

3 Bowser
6 Vincent Valentine

2 Squall
7 Fox McCloud


Once again, I'm not impressed with the bottom 4-pack. Bowser/Vincent is a fine match, but having the winner face Squall doesn't make sense. Vincent beat Squall just last year, and there's no need for a rematch - between DoC and AC it doesn't seem that likely Squall will overtake him. Meanwhile, if Bowser beats Vincent, that probably means he's stronger than Squall - either way, you're stuck with an anti-climactic second round match. The division final could be good though.

1 Sonic
8 Soma

4 Ryu
5 Alucard


Decent, although despite his drop it's hard to see Ryu having too much trouble with Alucard.

3 Kirby
6 Magus

2 Mega Man
7 Phoenix Wright


Pretty good, considering that Mega Man has to be a 2 seed somewhere.

1 Crono
8 CATS

4 Vivi
5 Gordon Freeman


I'd prefer Gordon to face someone a little weaker, or at least unknown - part of the fun is for GFNW to be tested each year. Vivi/Crono could tell us a little about whether Zidane was SFFed (or it might not).

3 Dante
6 Yoshi

2 Master Chief
7 Donkey Kong


Ugh, I'm not fond of the MC/DK rematch at all. Sure it was an interesting match once, but that doesn't mean we need to see it again. One of the biggest problems with Ceej's brackets in 2003 and 2004 was that he had rematch-itis. Out of all the rematches he set up (Mega Man/Sephiroth 2k3, Sonic/Samus 2k4, Snake/Knuckles 2k3, Snake/Knuckles 2k4, Mega Man/Snake 2k4, Crono/Mario 2k3, Crono/Mario 2k4), only one of them was as exciting as the original - all the rest were worse. So in my opinion, rematches should be used very sparingly.

Yoshi/Dante seems like a decent match. It's somewhat hard to see the winner of that losing to MC, but I'm not sure how much better you could do with MC.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 3:27:53 PM | message detail
Sometimes rematches are good though, especially when the character in question doesn't really have any interesting matches outside of said rematch. Who does Sonic have that could give him an interesting match outside of Mega Man (and maybe Crono)? The only one I've seen floated around is Luigi because of Mario/Shadow parallels, and that's a *real* stretch for me (and I'd never expect the plumber to win).
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 3:30:17 PM | message detail
MC can get a better second round challenge if you put a match like Ryu/Alucard there...though I really think that's a mismatch. Maybe Ryu/Tidus would be better, as they're quite close by the stats. Alucard/Leon Kennedy ain't a bad match either.
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Kaxon | Posted 8/20/2006 3:31:52 PM | message detail
Obviously, some rematches are necessary or even unavoidable. But MC/DK and Squall/Vincent don't fall into those categories - there are plenty of more interesting possibilities for those characters.
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CATS for SC2k6 champion
Master Moltar | Posted 8/20/2006 3:48:58 PM | message detail
I don't mean to bring this back up, just a comment. I also think Mario SFF'd Samus, and that Samus was previously stronger indirectly for the reasons mnm listed. In 2005 though? Nah. Mario boosted to be equal or slightly above her. I think she could pull around Mario's numbers on Crono, maybe a percent less at the worst.

I know I had her beating Seph and all, but that was just wishful thinking that Seph had fallen hard thanks to getting owned in his rematch with Cloud and his poor Spring Contest appearance.

Still, I wouldn't say Samus dropped in 2005. I do believe she was stronger that year and just received a bit of SFF (I don't see how Mario couldn't SFF her). I also think Ganon suffered some as well, but not as much as Samus received.
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Moltar Status: Currently the property of the true Master, Z1mZum
Final July '06 Contest Score: 62 (Boo)
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 3:49:21 PM | message detail
I like all the switches KH mentioned... that would be a pure sex bracket. The only reason I put Dante/Yoshi together was I was seeing so much controversy over it at the 4 pack of fun board... hell I think more people thought of Dante/Yoshi as a harder match-up than Yoshi/Magus, which they had Yoshi taking for the most part. Either way though, Dante/Magus is still a good match-up, and it has potential to make things more interesting. I actually have more faith in Dante taking out Magus than Yoshi for whatever reason.

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Kaxon | Posted 8/20/2006 3:49:29 PM | message detail
Here's how I might arrange things (drawing heavily from EC's bracket and the comments people made).

Gear Division
1 Snake
8 Tingle

4 Donkey Kong
5 Alucard

3 Ganondorf
6 Sub-Zero

2 Bowser
7 Vincent

Mickey Division
1 Sora
8 Captain Falcon

4 Dante
5 Kirby

3 Zero
6 Auron

2 Squall
7 Raiden

Blue Division
1 Sonic
8 CATS

4 Gordon Freeman
5 Prince of Persia

3 Luigi
6 Magus

2 Mega Man
7 Phoenix Wright

Guardia Division
1 Crono
8 Soma Cruz

4 Yoshi
5 Knuckles

3 Ryu
6 Tidus

2 Master Chief
7 Vivi
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CATS for SC2k6 champion
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 3:51:08 PM | message detail
Still, I wouldn't say Samus dropped in 2005. I do believe she was stronger that year and just received a bit of SFF (I don't see how Mario couldn't SFF her). I also think Ganon suffered some as well, but not as much as Samus received.

That's my problem with people saying Mario is stronger than her though in '05. If you say she drops I call BS, if you say she increases, then that puts her on at least Mario's level... there's not a whole lot of room for movement.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/20/2006 3:53:40 PM | message detail
I'm not a fan of Samus being stronger than Mario indirectly or Samus dropping in 2005. Hooray me. >>

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 3:56:01 PM | message detail
I'm not a fan of Samus being stronger than Mario indirectly or Samus dropping in 2005. Hooray me. >>

I don't like that one either, simply because I don't like Link and Zelda boosting, while Ganondorf drops, sure you could say Samus SFFs Ganon, but if she does, I don't think it's much at all. Still, it's a better option than thinking she increases and is weaker than Mario, or decreases.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/20/2006 3:58:19 PM | message detail
Samus potentially SFFing Ganon doesn't really bother me that much. I wouldn't expect it to be by very much, but a percent or two seems somewhat reasonable to me.

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 3:59:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, the only thing that doesn't completely irk me about it is that he could potentially have been overrated in 2K3 thanks to Magus... I don't know, Ganon is a mystery to me.

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 4:01:05 PM | message detail
My revised bracket... I think it's much better thanks to all the input, in fact I dare say I would have sex with it if possible.

1 Solid Snake
8 Tingle

4 Leon Kennedy
5 Tidus

3 Bowser
6 Vincent Valentine

2 Ganondorf
7 Prince of Persia

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1 Sora
8 Captain Falcon

4 Auron
5 Zero

3 Luigi
6 Knuckles

2 Dante
7 Magus

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1 Sonic
8 Soma

4 Ryu
5 Donkey Kong

3 Squall
6 Fox McCloud

2 Mega Man
7 Phoenix Wright

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1 Crono
8 CATS

4 Raiden
5 Gordon Freeman

3 Kirby
6 Yoshi

2 Master Chief
7 Vivi
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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
swirIdude | Posted 8/20/2006 4:10:49 PM | message detail
3 Luigi
6 Knuckles

2 Dante
7 Magus


Everyone ready for the rematch?!?!
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After the Series Contest, Z1mZum is now the guy I want to be like!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 4:11:06 PM | message detail
Ganondorf potentially overrated in 2k3? Look at Tidus and Sam Fisher. The overrating doesn't stop with Magus.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/20/2006 4:12:04 PM | message detail

Everyone ready for the rematch?!?!


I'm ready for Luigi > Magus, actually!

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 4:12:47 PM | message detail
I'm ready for Dante > Luigi!

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swirIdude | Posted 8/20/2006 4:13:23 PM | message detail
I'm ready for Knuckles > Magus!

Even though it will be Luigi > Dante.
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After the Series Contest, Z1mZum is now the guy I want to be like!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 4:13:25 PM | message detail
I'm ready for Magus > Knuckles!

What? Knuckles never wins in the second round...
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 4:14:45 PM | message detail
That's one Quarrma Hunter of a pick KH.

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swirIdude | Posted 8/20/2006 4:14:55 PM | message detail
That all dates back to Solid/Squall in 2002. That duo are the only two that can beat Knuckles in the second round!
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After the Series Contest, Z1mZum is now the guy I want to be like!
KamikazePotato | Posted 8/20/2006 4:15:57 PM | message detail
Luigi vs. Dante would be tough.

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Z1mZum won the Guru Contest. I picked Pokemon over Metroid, GTA over Warcraft, Halo over CV, Street Fighter over RE, and FF over Zelda.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/20/2006 4:15:59 PM | message detail
1 Sora
8 Captain Falcon

4 Auron
5 Zero

3 Luigi
6 Knuckles

2 Dante
7 Magus

Having the opportunity to put Luigi as winner of his division=very good bracket sex indeed.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
swirIdude | Posted 8/20/2006 4:17:12 PM | message detail
Having the opportunity to put Luigi as winner of his division=very good bracket sex indeed.

Well of course! And all of Mario's votes will go to Luigi now that Mario is in the ToC!

<_<

What? It would work on contest newbs.
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After the Series Contest, Z1mZum is now the guy I want to be like!
TheCruelAngel | Posted 8/20/2006 4:17:14 PM | message detail
I like your first bracket much more since it doesn't waste Squall. :P
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/20/2006 4:17:17 PM | message detail
You could honestly make a case for anyone in that bracket taking the division aside from CF. Sora and Magus would be a stretch though.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 4:18:02 PM | message detail
I like that kind of thinking...it's so weird how we come up with really debateable matches and then argue how one winning is completely OBVIOUS compared to the other.

Yeah, Dante/Magus is a great match! So is Dante/Knuckles! And Knuckles/Luigi! All great matches, since they're all close together -- WTF you took Magus > Knux HAHAHAHAHA U N00B
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ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/20/2006 4:18:30 PM | message detail
I like your first bracket much more since it doesn't waste Squall. :P

Eh... he went out second round in both ones, and beat Fox in both. >_> I agree he could probably be put to better use though.

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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/20/2006 4:19:27 PM | message detail
Geez, that's why I said 'opportunity', meaning that Luigi has a very decent shot of winning (I personally would take him over Knux, then Dante, then Auron to win, but I see arguments for the opposite in each match).
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 4:19:50 PM | message detail
If Sora even broke 43% on Auron, I'd pass out from shock.
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Kaxon | Posted 8/20/2006 4:20:00 PM | message detail
Well of course! And all of Mario's votes will go to Luigi now that Mario is in the ToC!

Those votes were never Mario's to begin with, he was just benefitting from Luigi proxy votes!
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Master Moltar | Posted 8/20/2006 4:20:26 PM | message detail
Predicting EC's bracket v2.0.

1 Solid Snake
8 Tingle

4 Leon Kennedy
5 Tidus

3 Bowser
6 Vincent Valentine

2 Ganondorf
7 Prince of Persia


Leon/Tidus is tough, and I'd probably go with Tidus because it's the safe pick. The bottom four-pack is tough, especially Bowser/Vincent. Whoever wins that takes the four-pack IMO. I'm going to say Bowser squeaks by both Vincent and Ganon, then loses in a re-match with Snake, doing a little worse than last year because of Snake gaining.
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1 Sora
8 Captain Falcon

4 Auron
5 Zero

3 Luigi
6 Knuckles

2 Dante
7 Magus

Damn...this is brutal. The only match in the entire division I could predict with confidence is Sora/CF. I don't buy Zero's 2005 value, but Auron could also be underrated. I'd take either one over Sora, but I also feel I'm underestimating the power of KH2. Looking at Squall/Knuckles last year, I really feel odd about taking Luigi over Knuckles. Luigi just feels like the safe pick though. I'd pick Dante over Magus, but also feel uneasy there.

Then in Round 2 there's Luigi/Dante, o lawd, Luigi squeaks by, and beats Zero in a close one. God, this is worse than the Devil Division. I think I'm going to go cry now.
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1 Sonic
8 Soma

4 Ryu
5 Donkey Kong

3 Squall
6 Fox McCloud

2 Mega Man
7 Phoenix Wright

Nothing too tough here. I doubt DK is at Ryu's level even after the events in the last Contest. Sonic wins a rematch against MM, but Squall also ends up looking strong.
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1 Crono
8 CATS

4 Raiden
5 Gordon Freeman

3 Kirby
6 Yoshi

2 Master Chief
7 Vivi

Raiden/Freeman, eh? Nice. Kirby/Yoshi is pretty tough, and I love both characters. I'd feel pretty safe going with Chief over Vivi, though I might just get caught in the trap. Kirby takes out MC without too much trouble, and Crono takes his division with ease.
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Moltar Status: Currently the property of the true Master, Z1mZum
Final July '06 Contest Score: 62 (Boo)
ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/20/2006 4:20:30 PM | message detail
I like that kind of thinking...it's so weird how we come up with really debateable matches and then argue how one winning is completely OBVIOUS compared to the other.

Yeah, Dante/Magus is a great match! So is Dante/Knuckles! And Knuckles/Luigi! All great matches, since they're all close together -- WTF you took Magus > Knux HAHAHAHAHA U N00B


Best post in the stats topic right hurr!

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Angsty Mermaids.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 4:20:48 PM | message detail
Geez, that's why I said 'opportunity', meaning that Luigi has a very decent shot of winning (I personally would take him over Knux, then Dante, then Auron to win, but I see arguments for the opposite in each match).

I was talking to EC, not you. Stupid fast moving yet somehow still offseason stats topic.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 4:24:10 PM | message detail
I totally just stole the next stats topic for yo.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 4:27:23 PM | message detail
Also, if Ceej decided to just completely steal my bracket, and screw the nominations thing, there would be no complaining.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/20/2006 4:33:02 PM | message detail
I was talking to Leonhart the other day, and we were talking about the ToC or something and the whole Cloud/Mario match came up again. He mentioned Cloud getting payback, then I was all like "... Then Super Mario Galaxy is a surprise launch title on Wii and is released the day of the match!"


We both concluded that Mario would have the best luck of all-time. Thoughts!!

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 4:34:06 PM | message detail
Not only would he have the best luck of all time, but I would be happiest man alive.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/20/2006 4:35:20 PM | message detail
The only thing wrong with the whole scenario is that Mario still -- unfortunately -- wouldn't be able to take out Link.

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 4:36:15 PM | message detail
Love to see it, but history wouldn't repeat itself even if SMG was released on the day of the match. Cloud would have probably beaten Mario with around 55% without SMG, now it's more like 58% and likely to be more post-KH2 and AC. I'd love to see what would happen and what the percentages would wind up as, though.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 4:36:36 PM | message detail
Yes he would, because the day before LoZ/Mario Nintendo would reveal that Link is just Tingle in an elf costume.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 8/20/2006 4:38:04 PM | message detail
1 Solid Snake
8 Tingle

4 Leon Kennedy
5 Tidus

3 Bowser
6 Vincent Valentine

2 Ganondorf
7 Prince of Persia

Analysis: See Moltars, replace Snakes boost with an even bigger boost for Bowser.

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1 Sora
8 Captain Falcon

4 Auron
5 Zero

3 Luigi
6 Knuckles

2 Dante
7 Magus


Analysis: See my earlier post
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1 Sonic
8 Soma

4 Ryu
5 Donkey Kong

3 Squall
6 Fox McCloud

2 Mega Man
7 Phoenix Wright

Analysis: First step for Mega Man on his way to winning the contest.
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1 Crono
8 CATS

4 Raiden
5 Gordon Freeman

3 Kirby
6 Yoshi

2 Master Chief
7 Vivi

Analysis: Vivi and Kirby aren't going to perform up to expectations, GFNW, and Crono dominates the competition.
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Bowser>Luigi (interesting to see where the SFF goes there), MM>Crono, MM>Bowser.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!