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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 346

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ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/19/2006 9:33:22 PM | message detail
I doubt the Up+B pains cost Ness much strength. I find Yoshi's lack of an Up+B recovery more annoying, even with the flutter jump.

I'm not saying it costs him strength, I'm saying that how good a character is in SSB most definitely determines who casuals use, which you just got done saying doesn't happen. And when you draw a large amount of your power from SSB, and CF is I would say, clearly the favorite in comparison to Ness in that game at least, that he has the advantage.

I don't like boiling everything down to SSB in matches where Ninty characters happen to be in it, but when it's two people who rely on it as heavily as CF and Ness, I think you have to look at it like that.

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ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/19/2006 9:34:50 PM | message detail
oh, and Ness is actually higher than Falcon in the tier list in the original SSB, for your information.

I'm well aware, but that tier isn't a casual players tier, it's a tier made up by the more avid SSB players who get into advanced techniques and what have you. It isn't any sort of guideline as to who casuals find easier to use/enjoy playing as.

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swirIdude | Posted 8/19/2006 9:35:47 PM | message detail
Unless you're terrible like Pichu, I'm sure there are players that like to play as every player. (As bad as Bowser and Mewtwo are, they are fan favorites when it comes to their respective series.)

Ness could be hurt by that slightly, but I don't see that being much of a factor in a match.
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After the Series Contest, Z1mZum is now the guy I want to be like!
ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/19/2006 9:36:22 PM | message detail
It depends on how "sucky" we're talking, I think. If you're like Bowser or Pichu, odds are you're not going to get a lot of play time. But if you're someone middle of the road in tiers, but still are fun to play as (Roy, Kirby, Link, etc. in SSBM), you're going to see a lot of casual people playing as them. Tons of people here tend to disregard tiers, I believe, so I think it hardly matters where they place in the tier list. You may just get extra attention on message boards and such by being top tier, such as Sheik.

I pretty much agree with everything you just said there, it just so happens that I put Ness among the crappier fighters in terms of friendliness towards casuals.

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swirIdude | Posted 8/19/2006 9:36:37 PM | message detail
And I meant Ness being hurt by what EC was saying. It's quite clear Ness is a fan favorite in Earthbound.
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After the Series Contest, Z1mZum is now the guy I want to be like!
therealmnm | Posted 8/19/2006 9:36:56 PM | message detail
I'm well aware, but that tier isn't a casual players tier, it's a tier made up by the more avid SSB players who get into advanced techniques and what have you. It isn't any sort of guideline as to who casuals find easier to use/enjoy playing as.

That post was made out of pure win.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/19/2006 9:37:26 PM | message detail
Ness, even for being top-tier, is still as used and liked as any other character to play as amongst myself and my ffaarr more casual friends, and I know that Ness was often-used elsewhere too.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/19/2006 9:38:25 PM | message detail
Unless you're terrible like Pichu, I'm sure there are players that like to play as every player. (As bad as Bowser and Mewtwo are, they are fan favorites when it comes to their respective series.)

Ness could be hurt by that slightly, but I don't see that being much of a factor in a match.


Being a fan favorite has nothing to do with this, as I'm talking about the people who will be affected by who they prefer in SSB, as it's evident that both of them will be relying on it heavily to draw strength from... and I contend that Ness is one of the less casual friendly fighters. I'm not really going to say anything else on this, as it's being beaten to death.

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ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/19/2006 9:40:19 PM | message detail
I like how my post mentioning Cait Sith's death is modded when it was posted after HM's saying the same exact thing... I'm telling you there is a stats goer that hates me. >_>

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Heroic Mario | Posted 8/19/2006 9:41:33 PM | message detail
I don't like boiling everything down to SSB in matches where Ninty characters happen to be in it, but when it's two people who rely on it as heavily as CF and Ness, I think you have to look at it like that.

I would agree. I know SSB doesn't even enter my thoughts when two Nintendo characters go up against each other. But I would agree with Falcon and Ness. The vast majority of their popularity comes from SSB.

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/19/2006 9:42:47 PM | message detail
I labeled spoilers. =p

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 9:42:49 PM | message detail
Falcon's recovery is just as bad as Ness.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
HaRRicH | Posted 8/19/2006 9:43:10 PM | message detail
Vincent Valentine
(Total Votes: 14,129)

Yuffie Kisaragi
(Total Votes: 12,564)

Cait Sith
(Total Votes: 12,393)

Cloud Strife
(Total Votes: 12,798)

Tifa Lockhart
(Total Votes: 12,449)

Barret Wallace
(Total Votes: 12,297)

Cid Highwind
(Total Votes: 12,462)





Vincent is a BEAST with the vote-totals!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
ExplicitAriel | Posted 8/19/2006 9:43:28 PM | message detail
I labeled spoilers. =p

The none boldiness fooled me!

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Keno316 | Posted 8/19/2006 9:57:33 PM | message detail
Vincent is a BEAST with the vote-totals!


Well...it IS his game... >>
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/19/2006 9:58:07 PM | message detail
Pfft... don't talk crazy KH.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/19/2006 9:59:38 PM | message detail
Hay guys. I got something to say. I GOT YOUR TIERS RITE HURR

*Exposes self*
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Yesmar | Posted 8/19/2006 10:06:42 PM | message detail
Did Aeris not have a poll?
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/19/2006 10:08:28 PM | message detail
Aeris isn't in DoC.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Chinballz | Posted 8/19/2006 10:20:38 PM | message detail
Besides, we all know what her top answer would be anyway.
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therealmnm | Posted 8/19/2006 10:21:18 PM | message detail
Buying a flower from her?
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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Keno316 | Posted 8/19/2006 10:21:39 PM | message detail
Besides, we all know what her top answer would be anyway.


Of course.....Slum Drunk...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/19/2006 10:21:46 PM | message detail
That's what I was thinking.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/19/2006 10:52:10 PM | message detail
Ya know, I just got to thinkin' about the sticky CJay has up about the seeds...do you think that he said preliminary because that was just the machine count? I mean, that was pretty quick he had that up, and considering he pointed out that the Chrono series could have been a 7-seed when its misspelled nominations are counted (and, granted, no other series' misspelled noms count)...perhaps he's going the extra mile so that he knows for a fact the nominations are right this time, and that's why he said preliminary and has that quick of an idea of the top and bottom seeds.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/19/2006 10:53:05 PM | message detail
I figured that when it said "may change."

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
Keno316 | Posted 8/19/2006 11:02:08 PM | message detail
So, Crono potentially has more nominations than the ones already counted that nailed him a 1st seed?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 11:06:36 PM | message detail
the only reason Crono hasn't gotten high seeds in the past years or so is probably because people mispell his name and eventually get it right overtime?
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
Draco1214 | Posted 8/19/2006 11:30:51 PM | message detail
So I've been catching up on this stats topic when I saw this post and had to respond:

No one seems to have a problem with Luigi suddenly being able to 60-40 his previous years self.

Luigi's situation is different from Kirby's. 2005 saw Mario and Luigi both getting huge increases (I won't deal with Bowser or Yoshi 2005 due to iffy matches). How big?:

Mario 2004 on BL: 37.28%
Mario 2005 on BL: 43.20%

Luigi 2003 on BL (thanks, Link/Yoshi SFF in 2004): 25.24%
Luigi 2005 on BL: 31.32%

If Mario series characters have had proportional increases, then Luigi's boost makes more sense. It also makes FF/SMB look less surprising.

Mind you, this does help make Snake/Bowser more credible, so take this with a grain of salt, but Bowser boosting so much wouldn't be all that surprising, especially considering his maiming of Ryu. I'd put more stock in Kirby overperforming on Bowser, since he has no reason to be boosting so much.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2006 12:04:00 AM | message detail
I do wonder what brought on the Mario surge though. I guess the DS? SM64DS was released along with it, for whatever it's worth...but, I mean, I wouldn't think that would be the only thing, since it was still just an upgraded port on a handheld.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 8/20/2006 12:05:43 AM | message detail
Also, it's kinda weird that Luigi's boosted more than Mario when they're both practically nearly as well known...not to mention that Luigi's 2k3 value doesn't assume Samus was SFF'd.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/20/2006 12:16:47 AM | message detail
I think Link SFF'd Samus and I think we haven't really had a real value on Luigi, ever. You could say the same thing for Squall, Kirby, etc.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
LessThan3Presea | Posted 8/20/2006 5:18:17 AM | message detail
Well, we have a real value for Squall and Luigi, at least...

33.9% -- Pulling off seven Limit Breaks on the "Yeah!" slots.

Hardcore ownage, baby.
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Viper_Vix3n | Posted 8/20/2006 5:24:26 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
jonthomson | Posted 8/20/2006 5:45:03 AM | message detail
I think Ness beats Captain Falcon, but it'd obv be close.
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
plasmabeam | Posted 8/20/2006 5:46:37 AM | message detail
Ness would find himself on the bad end of SSBM SSF.

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Wind Waker was as easy as a drunken hooker, I'll give you that. - ugly man
~Jacksonville Jaguars~
jonthomson | Posted 8/20/2006 5:52:27 AM | message detail
Ness would find himself on the bad end of SSBM SSF.

Possibly. But I find CF horrendously bad in SSBM. I do suck though.
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
therealmnm | Posted 8/20/2006 8:03:17 AM | message detail
I do wonder what brought on the Mario surge though. I guess the DS? SM64DS was released along with it, for whatever it's worth...but, I mean, I wouldn't think that would be the only thing, since it was still just an upgraded port on a handheld.

The release of a popular Nintendo (handheld) system. Like I said before, it's not the individual games. It didn't necessarily have to be a SM64DS, but as long as there was a popular Nintendo release for the DS, there was bound to be an increase of Nintendo traffic on this site.

Plus, it's becoming more and more likely that Mario's performance on Crono wasn't his true strength. Again, I think that was more of a concentrated effort to finally get Crono the win. I always thought that during 2k4, but I was too biased to actually apply that in terms of pushing for Samus > Mario.
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Yesmar | Posted 8/20/2006 9:01:50 AM | message detail
I don't think there's any real smoking gun for a Mario/Nintendo increase like a new console or anything. I think there was just a shift in the voting fanbase on GameFAQS due to increased votals. The same thing happened with Square in 2003. I think the DS might have put Nintendo/Mario in the position to boost, but it didn't contribute to the characters' boosts outright.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 10:26:20 AM | message detail
There's one thing though -- even if you don't buy Mario/Crono III being indicative of Mario's 'true' strength, exactly how strong do you think he is in 2k4? Would he have gone 50/50 with Crono without the 'concentrated effort'? Samus 2k4 still whips him 53-47 under that assumption. And if you raise Mario up to Samus' 2k4 level, then the 'Nintendo boost' of 2k5 was merely a percentage point, if that.

So, think about it this way. Barring something crazy, I'm pretty convinced Mario isn't up with Samus' 2k4 value. And I'm also convinced that Mario would never lose to Samus -- ever. Something's off there. It either virtually proves rSFF, or it implies that Samus 2k4's value is a fluke.

Why isn't that idea getting more discussion? If it's rSFF, and Samus boosted with the rest of the Ninty crew, she should do significantly better on Sephiroth than Mario. If she's overrated, suddenly Crono has a damn good chance to take her out.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/20/2006 10:34:05 AM | message detail
And to drive the point home, let's take two -- admittedly large -- assumptions. The first being that Mario's values in 2k4 and 2k5 are both legit, and the difference between the two is the complete effect of the Nintendo boost. The second being that Samus boosted just as much as Mario in 2k5 (which I'm sure is wrong, but let's humor it).

Mario (2005c) VS Mario (2004c)

Mario has a strength of 43.20.
Mario has a strength of 37.28.

Mario wins with 56.85% of the vote!
A win of 13,407 with 97,837 total votes cast.

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Sephiroth (2005c) VS Samus (2004c)

Sephiroth has a strength of 49.16.
Samus has a strength of 42.36.

Sephiroth wins with 56.92% of the vote!
A win of 13,271 with 95,943 total votes cast.
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Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 8/20/2006 11:29:22 AM | message detail
I didn't say Mario was at Samus's 2k4 level (he still got beat by Sephiroth slightly worse than what Mega Man got beat by the year before). But he probably was a bit stronger than what 2k4 shows. Remember, Crono beat him so bad that people were actually entertaining a Sonic > Mario upset, something that I never see happening myself.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
therealmnm | Posted 8/20/2006 11:33:05 AM | message detail
As for Samus's 2k4 value being a fluke, don't forget that she beat Sonic's ass 58/42... something that should dictate getting 40% on Cloud...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
LordOfDabu | Posted 8/20/2006 11:40:06 AM | message detail
Considering Crono was rallied for on that Chrono website with links to the nomination form, his 1 seed would suggest that we'll see plenty of other characters from Chross/Trigger.

I'll be surprised if Sora manages to make it out of his division, regardless of what his seed may suggest.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 11:49:04 AM | message detail
There's one thing though -- even if you don't buy Mario/Crono III being indicative of Mario's 'true' strength, exactly how strong do you think he is in 2k4? Would he have gone 50/50 with Crono without the 'concentrated effort'? Samus 2k4 still whips him 53-47 under that assumption. And if you raise Mario up to Samus' 2k4 level, then the 'Nintendo boost' of 2k5 was merely a percentage point, if that.

So, think about it this way. Barring something crazy, I'm pretty convinced Mario isn't up with Samus' 2k4 value. And I'm also convinced that Mario would never lose to Samus -- ever. Something's off there. It either virtually proves rSFF, or it implies that Samus 2k4's value is a fluke.

Why isn't that idea getting more discussion? If it's rSFF, and Samus boosted with the rest of the Ninty crew, she should do significantly better on Sephiroth than Mario. If she's overrated, suddenly Crono has a damn good chance to take her out.


I don't buy Mario's strength in 2K4... I, along with what I would assume is a lot more people voted for Crono in that match despite not really liking him better. Mario is one of my preferred characters, while I hate everything CT, yet I still voted for Crono because I wanted to see his ass get over the hump. I can't help but think that underrates him in 2K4, which makes Mario's boost much smaller. And I've never been a fan of the whole Base Link she-bang either. I'm not going to deny Link increasing in strength, but I'm wary of saying how much exactly. And while my following point was not addressed in your post, that makes Luigi's boost ridiculously large compared to Mario's, so you can't feed me the Mario characters boost proportionally crap, to discredit Kirby's strength. For whoever did mention that, there was a lot of stretches in your post to make Kirby look weaker than he is.

Moving on, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that there is such a thing as rSFF and that it's capable of making someone win a match. If Mario and Samus both face off against Seph, I would bet my left nut Samus performs better. I have no doubt in my mind that Samus performs better on a common opponent than Mario, so long as that opponent isn't Nintendo. I know people hate putting Samus above Mario in the stats since Mario beat her, but I would find absolutely nothing wrong with it. I'm definitely in the minority on this one though, and it's been beaten to death. If Samus faced off with Crono, I would not for a second think about who I'm taking to win that one. The only person who I think has any sort of chance of taking out Samus who is below her in the stats is Mega Man, and you of all people know the reasons for that. I'd still go with Samus, but it's the only person that concerns me.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 11:50:11 AM | message detail
And when I say Mario was underrated in 2K4, I put him on Crono's level, not Samus btw.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
therealmnm | Posted 8/20/2006 11:58:59 AM | message detail
There's nothing wrong with Samus being stronger than Mario indirectly. Someone even did a nice detailed graphical explanation on how Samus can be stronger than Mario but still be sensibly SFF'd. Samus has a higher total number of people who like her on this site than Mario. But among people that like them both, they prefer Mario. Add them together and Samus is stronger. When they face each other, it is skewed towards Mario. Nothing really wrong with that.

However, I don't think that Samus is stronger than Mario's 2k5 level. I don't think Samus beats Crono 54-46 at least...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 12:06:13 PM | message detail
I do... and yeah, I feel like Samus gets a large portion of her popularity outside of the basic Nintendo fanbase, but at the same time, she still draws a lot from the Nintendo fanbase, it's just that she's towards the lower portion of the totem poll among Nintendo fans.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
plasmabeam | Posted 8/20/2006 12:24:48 PM | message detail
Over/Under:

2.5 Female upsets blamed on TJF.

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Wind Waker was as easy as a drunken hooker, I'll give you that. - ugly man
~Jacksonville Jaguars~
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/20/2006 12:26:32 PM | message detail
Under, so long as we're talking serious blame.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/20/2006 12:31:07 PM | message detail
Chances are that Samus didn't boost like the rest of the Nintendo characters. I doubt there was rSFF in her match w/ Mario.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
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