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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 346

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LessThan3Presea | Posted 8/18/2006 11:51:04 PM | message detail
Also, does anyone else think it'd be cool if CJayC slowly revealed the rest of the bracket this way (2s and 7s, 3s and 6s, 4s and 5s)?

As long as it doesn't take too long, that is.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
Redtooth | Posted 8/19/2006 12:37:35 AM | message detail
Well, it would make the conversations much more...organized. I mean, normally when the bracket comes out, everyone jumps on an opinions about a different part of it, and most people end up missing key parts to it. If he did try that method, at least everything would be very structured, and the excitement could last several days. Sure, it's slightly annoying only knowing some parts, but I think it's nice to have a discussion that can more easily be followed...
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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
ChidoriNoJutsu | Posted 8/19/2006 1:02:13 AM | message detail
It makes sense that Nidoran F got in over Zolom and Solano actually. If you think about, the females get less varied nominations therefore a more concentrated female rally has a better chance. There's a much more varied vote pool for the males making it more difficult for fodder characters. That, and Ceej hates ol' Zolomy and Solano.

Don't ask me about Tingle however.
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Ngamer64 | Posted 8/19/2006 1:15:21 AM | message detail
Well, Agent 47 managed 30% on Sora last summer. So if Falcon can improve on that by a decent amount (and you'd have to think he could... it was Agent 47 for crying out loud) and turn it in something along the lines of a 60ish/40ish result, I'd consider that a "great" showing for a Rally Contest character vs a #1 seed.

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For Your Consideration: Joanna Dark
For My Consideration: How badly Z1mZum owned me in the BSE Guru Contest!
White_Turtle | Posted 8/19/2006 1:35:51 AM | message detail
Carmen Sandiego made the bracket, that's all that matters. Everything else is insignificant.

Although it's sad she got an 8 seed. I'd like to see what she could've done against the inevitable horde of mid-seeded obscure RPG characteresses.
Kaxon | Posted 8/19/2006 1:39:36 AM | message detail
I know I'm late, but wtf... Jay Solano doesn't make it but Tingle does? Crono a 1 seed and not Mega Man? The world's gone crazy! And looks like we're not getting CATS vs Gordon this year either...
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
greatone10 | Posted 8/19/2006 1:43:18 AM | message detail
How the **** does Tingle make a 32 male bracket after not being seen after all these years (especially since some good midcarder is getting snubbed)?

Wait, were nominations open on the day of THAT match pic? That's about the only thing I can even think of to justify this.
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Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Keno316 | Posted 8/19/2006 1:44:33 AM | message detail
Crono a 1 seed and not Mega Man?

Sora a 1 seed and not Mega Man is weirder than Crono a 1 seed and not Mega Man.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
greatone10 | Posted 8/19/2006 1:47:40 AM | message detail
Sora having a one seed is like Master Chief or Kirby's one seed this year. I expected Kingdom Hearts 2 to work noms just like Halo 2 and Canvas Curse.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 3:50:21 AM | message detail
no, I believe the nominations were up on the final match only.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 3:50:42 AM | message detail
oh, and does anyone think Marina Liteyears made it?
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
_SmurfX_ | Posted 8/19/2006 3:51:58 AM | message detail
Megaman's decline is very apparent from this. He's behind Crono now?
Megaman out of the noble 9 is looking very attractive now.

But anyway. FACT or FICTION : Somebody will get slaughtered worse than Tanner in this contest. With all the female fodder and......Tingle it should be possible.
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Smurf.
The cream of SONIC Fanboyism.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 8/19/2006 3:59:07 AM | message detail
Megaman out of the noble 9 is looking very attractive now.

No, no it's not.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php
Please nominate K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing) (Male) and Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie) (Female)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 4:03:34 AM | message detail
He's behind Crono now?

wait, he wasn't already? this isn't really a sign of a declination of Mega Man. it's just nominations.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/19/2006 4:12:07 AM | message detail
I'm glad to see Sora and Yuna as first seeds, because then I know that the last eight won't all be 1st seeds.
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Arc the Lad > Shining Force. Andel DID notice >_> Z1m Zum > Me
red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2006 4:54:22 AM | message detail
Megaman's decline is very apparent from this. He's behind Crono now?
Megaman out of the noble 9 is looking very attractive now.


The lack of a 1 seed has never stopped Crono.

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Z1mZum easily beat me with his superior skills.
Nominate Magus and Crono!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/19/2006 4:59:06 AM | message detail
BTW, who will win the male bracket? Personally I think all the 4 characters that we know are strong can win.

Crono: He should be the favourite, since he got to the finals last year, is the only really strong Square character left and finally got the seed he deserves. However some say that he gets weaker every year and higer votetotals have hurt the CT characters before (Knuckles > Magus, Crono > Mario).

Megaman: Higher votetotals and Crono getting older could give him the victory this year. 2800 votes may look like a lot to comeback from, but SF VS RE got around 20000 more votes than Crono VS Megaman, so they higher votetotals could help him. he won over Sonic last year and Solid Snake has never had the chance against him. He also has MMX collection that could give him a small boost.

Sonic: His two biggest threats (Mario and Samus) aren't there anymore. 700 votes less than Megaman is nothing that Sonic can't comeback from. Sonic Rush alone would give him that boost, and he's been in two other games which could boost him even more and Megaman failed to get a 1st seed against Sora could be a sign of weakness. As I've already said before Crono could be weaker this year, and Solid Snake shouldn't be able to threat Sonic either. Compare their performances against Megaman. I think my fanboyism will make me to put Sonic as the winner, but I want to see the bracket first before I decide.

Solid Snake: If you haven't been around for any of the charater contests, then Solid Snake should be the obvious favourite in your eyes. What has Crono, Megaman or Sonic done this generation that can even compare to the succes of MGS2 and MGS3? He's also comfirmed to be in the next Super Smash Bros game. Taking Solid Snake to win the male bracket is a huge risk, some would even say foolish, but his chances are not impossible. The higher votetotals should also help him more than any other character.




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Arc the Lad > Shining Force. Andel DID notice >_> Z1m Zum > Me
_SmurfX_ | Posted 8/19/2006 5:03:06 AM | message detail
Think about it. Megaman has always been beating Crono in nominations. In the past, he's even secured enough to beat Sephiroth, Snake and Sonic.

Forget about Sora, that's hype behind him. But Snake, Sonic and particularly Crono have moved above him in the nomination pecking order. Since Crono in particular gaining popularity is pretty much impossible, it's fair to say that Crono's nomination share has remained the same. So Megaman's support has dropped. So it seems likely that has popularity has too.

Factor in the showing of Mega Man series being behind Metal Gear and considerably behind Sonic and there is very little arguement to support for Mega Man being able to beat other noble niners.

Maybe Snake, but I think at this stage Mega Man has dropped out of Crono and Sonic's range.
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The cream of SONIC Fanboyism.
red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2006 5:05:51 AM | message detail
I don't think that higher vote totals necessarily hurt Crono & company. Crono and Magus did fine in 2003. And that year around 20000 or so new votes resulted in only 27 of them going to Megaman against Sephiroth, right? I'm not saying Megaman can't beat Crono, as he only lost by 2800, but I don't think more votes is bad for CT.
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Z1mZum easily beat me with his superior skills.
Nominate Magus and Crono!
red sox 777 | Posted 8/19/2006 5:07:26 AM | message detail
As far as Crono's nominations go, keep he mind he was rallied for on the front page of Chrono Compendium. His 1 seed bodes well for Magus's prospects.
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Z1mZum easily beat me with his superior skills.
Nominate Magus and Crono!
_SmurfX_ | Posted 8/19/2006 5:19:50 AM | message detail
Here's my opinion on the males chances.

Crono - He's always there or there abouts. Crono tends to be a big match player. He's shown that he can best Mario and MegaMan and even but up respectable numbers aganist Link. What he's also shown is that it's very easy to overperform aganist him for lesser characters. Master Chief, Vincent and Conker are just some characters that have knocked up a good 5% more than they should have. Conclusion? A dedicated fanbase but one that can be severly exposed by a casual fanbase. Sonic and even Snake could cause him problems, especially since he has to be in decline.

X-stat finish? - 3rd

Solid Snake - Likely to have recieved the most nominations, which just shows how much the SSBB has done for him. With Mario,Link and Samus all out of his way for the male bracket, Snake will profit from the Nintendo fanbase. SSB has revived Ness, boosted Samus and made itself comfortable as the number 4 series on GF. I don't need to tell anybody that it's power is not to be underestimated. And pushing Snake from tettering over the edge of the noble 9 into a champion is not insane.

X-stat finish? - 2nd.


Sonic - Since his screw up in 2002, his humiliation in 2003 and Sonic 2's suspect failure in 2004, Sonic has been gathering Speed at a dangerous pace. He steadied himself in 2004, Made huge improvements in 2005. Owning Tifa, Almost Tripling Diablo and Equalling Megaman. And his series picked up number 5. The highest non-Squintendo Series of all time. How can Sonic not be the favourite? Well, no denying he's able to beat MM and Snake, but Crono? Assuming there was no old skool SFF aganist Mageman, Sonic is a solid 3000 votes or so behind Crono. Will a Crono slide, plus Sonic Rush, Sonic Wild Fire and Sonic the hedgehog be enough to close that gap? I think it will, and then some.

X-stat finish? - 1st.

Mega Man - The one true character who's decline has been obvious and consistent year after year. Mega Man has transformed from a Sephiroth Equaller to having his series below Metal Gear and now being unable to be in the top 4 in nominations. Megaman's decline is likely to continue, which assuming a Snake increase puts him firmly as the Nobel line. The question for MM is can he hold it another year and fan off the likes of Bowser, Ganondorf and Squall? With Nintendo's constant improvement, if he comes up aganist Bowser or Ganon. IMO the noble 9 is dead.

X-stat finish? - 6th

The others?

Bowser and Ganon will be the most noticeable improvements with the Wii and SSBB for some reason being talking points on GF. Sora will obviously take a boost of sorts, but not enough to come close to Squall. Who should be Square's main FF hope. Although a suprise winner, isn't happening.


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The cream of SONIC Fanboyism.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 5:24:40 AM | message detail
I think my fanboyism will make me to put Sonic as the winner, but I want to see the bracket first before I decide.

if you have him as your winner, what's the point?

and guys, you don't judge whether a character is dropping or not just by nominations. I think Mega Man is still strong, his games just aren't.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
Grand_Healer | Posted 8/19/2006 5:37:24 AM | message detail
Mega Man hasn't done anything outstanding this generation in my eyes. If he is the two seed in Sora's division, then he's likely to be through. Otherwise I think he's pretty much screwed.
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Who Cares? | Posted 8/19/2006 5:40:37 AM | message detail
oh, and does anyone think Marina Liteyears made it?

Absoulety not. Nidoran F apparently needed three boards just to land a bottom seed. Good luck expecting anyone outside this board to nominate her.
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Waiting for the bracket!
consolefreak | Posted 8/19/2006 5:41:24 AM | message detail
Man I'm loving this. Snake, Sora, Tifa and Yuna 1 seeds? Good stuff. <3 Snake possibly being the single most nominated male character (due to being listed first) and starting off the bracket.

Yuna > Aeris is slightly disappointing, but Yuna's a 1-seed so yay anyway.

Also, I see there was still some Vincent discussion going on a while ago. Well, I'm fairly confident he'll make it now, for a couple of reasons:

- Tingle getting in. The nominations link on FF-Zelda will help Final Fantasy like it apparently does Zelda.

- Nominations still up on the front page during and after DoC's release.

- Vincent's impressive run last year (biggest reason I nominated him)

- Advent Children

- Cloud and Sephiroth being ineligible for nomination, hence Vincent stealing their noms to some extent.

- Sora's 1 seed. Expectable after KH2 (and not directly related to Vincent), but still good to see Square going strong.


I wouldn't be too surprised to see him get a 2 seed (although this is doubtful) and don't see him getting any worse than 4.

Also, does anyone else think it'd be cool if CJayC slowly revealed the rest of the bracket this way (2s and 7s, 3s and 6s, 4s and 5s)?

As long as it doesn't take too long, that is.


I do. A great way to climax up to the bracket (as long as it doesn't make him slack off).

Well, not much of a climax, I guess (hi there, 1 seeds) but just continuous tension. Works for me.

Sora having a one seed is like Master Chief or Kirby's one seed this year. I expected Kingdom Hearts 2 to work noms just like Halo 2 and Canvas Curse.

Not really. Nearly half of last year's 1 seeds would be 2 seeds with this format.

Additionally, Dante and Kirby (meh @ Chief) had their strongest performances yet.

Squall. Who should be Square's main FF hope.

Vincent was stronger than Squall last year, and I'd think AC and DoC > KH2 by a decent amount.


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Nominate Vincent Valentine for the character battle!
jonthomson | Posted 8/19/2006 7:14:38 AM | message detail
So I take it we've just seen the 1's and 8's and nothing else yet?
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
Tediz247 | Posted 8/19/2006 8:26:21 AM | message detail
Fantasy Sora division. Predict.

1) Sora
8) Captain Falcon

4) Luigi
5) Knuckles

3) Magus
6) Tidus

2) Master Chief
7) Yoshi
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Guru status: Z1mZum'd.
ZSB [aX]
Luis_Sera89 | Posted 8/19/2006 8:28:44 AM | message detail
Sora>Luigi
Yoshi>Tidus

Sora>Yoshi

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Damn you Z1mZum! Were it not for my owning at the hands of you I would've claimed the guru crown at the 1st attempt!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/19/2006 8:33:18 AM | message detail
1) Sora
5) Knuckles
3) Magus
7) Yoshi

Knuckles
Magus

Knuckles
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Arc the Lad > Shining Force. Andel DID notice >_> Z1m Zum > Me
GrapefruitKing | Posted 8/19/2006 8:47:51 AM | message detail
1) Sora
5) Knuckles
3) Magus
7) Yoshi

Knux > Sora
Yoshi > Magus

Yoshi > Knux... I suppose
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"Life, I guess", some comic strip by GrapefruitKing
Read it! --> http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29942830
charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2006 8:48:48 AM | message detail
1) Sora
8) Captain Falcon

4) Luigi
5) Knuckles

3) Magus
6) Tidus

2) Master Chief
7) Yoshi

NintendoFAQs FTW!
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
Ed Bellis | Posted 8/19/2006 8:51:13 AM | message detail
Woah, I just realized: unless Ceej starts with the ladies, the tradition of starting with a Nintendo character is going to be broken. o_0
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/19/2006 8:51:58 AM | message detail
OH NOES!
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Arc the Lad > Shining Force. Andel DID notice >_> Z1m Zum > Me
GrapefruitKing | Posted 8/19/2006 8:52:12 AM | message detail
Then he'll start with the ladies. YOU CAN'T BREAK THE STRIDE
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"Life, I guess", some comic strip by GrapefruitKing
Read it! --> http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29942830
creativename | Posted 8/19/2006 8:57:32 AM | message detail
Since Samus was probably ahead of Snake in noms by far, she probably will start off.
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charmander6000 | Posted 8/19/2006 8:59:03 AM | message detail
Nobody's gonna break Nintendo's stride
Nobody's going to slow them down
Oh no, they got to keep on winning.

>_>
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
LessThan3Presea | Posted 8/19/2006 10:02:51 AM | message detail
Since Samus was probably ahead of Snake in noms by far, she probably will start off.

I'd imagine he'd start with the male bracket first, unless you're saying he'll do mixed divisions (as in, it won't be 4 male divisions in a row, then 4 female divisions).
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
Who Cares? | Posted 8/19/2006 10:10:37 AM | message detail
I would rather like it if he alternated between brackets on the PotD. Start with Samus on Day 1, Snake on Day 2, back to the females on Day 3, and so on.
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Waiting for the bracket!
rpgapzx | Posted 8/19/2006 10:35:35 AM | message detail
This is Hilarious! I don't mean to troll, but I think a sound reminder that noms =/= votes is in order. Crono's 2 seed in a 8 division year didn't stop anyone from thinking he'd cave to Sonic and MegaMan. On top of that, we don't even know how many noms seperated Mega Man from the top 4. Would any of you care to retract your claim if we found out it was a <10 nom difference? This doesn't even mention the possibility that Ceej altered the #1s to ensure us an interesting 1-2 divisional match between the Small Four (Snake, Sonic, MegaMan, Crono)

All of you calling for Mega Man's fall are just on a hunch.

Again, bottom line: noms =/= votes.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 10:37:11 AM | message detail
if he starts in male, I predict it'll be Sonic. he's the most iconic out of all the others.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
Samurai7 | Posted 8/19/2006 10:44:48 AM | message detail
So how much lower do you think the female votals will be?
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Did you know 86% of all statistics are made up on the spot?
Ngamer64 | Posted 8/19/2006 10:56:46 AM | message detail
I've been thinking the same thing, WC. So I sent it in.

Message From Ngamer64 at 2006-08-19 17:53:58
Dear Jeff,

For this Summer's Character Battle, please consider alternating between Male and Female matchups on a daily basis. That is, if we start with Snake/Tingle, next would be Samus/Nidoran F, then the 4/5 Males, then the 4/5 Females, and so forth.

This choice would allow the Contest to maintain momentum and strong vote totals throughout, as the 32 popular Males would continue to keep the public interested in the results on every odd-numbered day, making it more likely they would be around to also vote Females on even days.

~Ng


We'll see what he says to that.

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For Your Consideration: Joanna Dark
For My Consideration: How badly Z1mZum owned me in the BSE Guru Contest!
Kaxon | Posted 8/19/2006 11:14:17 AM | message detail
The question for MM is can he hold it another year and fan off the likes of Bowser, Ganondorf and Squall? With Nintendo's constant improvement, if he comes up aganist Bowser or Ganon. IMO the noble 9 is dead.

X-stat finish? - 6th


Mega Man below Sonic, Crono, AND Snake? It's a stretch, but maybe. Mega Man losing to Bowser? No way.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2121
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/19/2006 11:16:40 AM | message detail
Yoshi vs Knuckles. go.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them”- Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
Kaxon | Posted 8/19/2006 11:26:07 AM | message detail
Personally I don't like the idea of alternating matches, but since I already sent Ceej two suggestions about the contest, I won't spam him telling him not to do it. =)

The people calling for Mega Man out of the noble nine are way overreacting. Ceej never said that his one seeds were the 4 most nominated characters. In his recent Ask Gamefaqs he said he tweaks the seeding to favor characters with a big new game, so Sora may not have out nominated Mega Man. Likewise, if he decided to set up a MM/Crono rematch, he may have made Crono the 1 because Crono won the match in 2005 (similar to MM and Snake switching seeds in 2004.) Also, of course, nominations have never more than loosely correlated with contest strength.

Re: Tingle, if he has to be in the contest, I wish we could see him get Blue Bomber'd. After Link, I can't think of anyone better suited to demolish Tingle than Mega Man. Snake would be my third choice.

I do like the idea of continuing to reveal 16 characters at a time before doing the whole bracket.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/19/2006 11:31:31 AM | message detail
1) Sora
4) Luigi

3) Magus
7) Yoshi

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/19/2006 11:33:20 AM | message detail
Yoshi vs Knuckles. go.

Unless Knuckles is overrated by a bit, it'll be hard to really take Yoshi in that match. Knuckles wins that match now with 55%, which seems large enough to be a nice favorite in that match.

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
Heroic Mario | Posted 8/19/2006 11:38:38 AM | message detail
Megaman's decline is very apparent from this. He's behind Crono now?
Megaman out of the noble 9 is looking very attractive now.


I could perhaps see why you would think this if there were a mixture of Mega Man declining and Ganon/Bowser/Squall/Vincent increasing, which would need to be about 2 - 3%. But he was always behind Crono in the stats. The nominations don't really give us any clue as to Mega Man's possible decline, I don't think. It does seem rather easy to see some characters passing him, though, just because of what everyone else is doing and then what Mega Man isn't doing...but I doubt you have that happening this year -- unless Ganon faces him post-TP that is.

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“I haven’t invested as much time into any game as I have [Twilight Princess].” – Shigeru Miyamoto
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/19/2006 11:39:31 AM | message detail
Wow... the stats topic has become significantly less intelligent after Ceej's announcement of the potential 8 and 1 seeds. I honestly can't believe half the thing people are saying in here, not to mention people dwelling on certain subjects after the reasoning behind why what happened, happened has already been described within the topic.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 8/19/2006 11:40:23 AM | message detail
I'm confused. Why are some people equating seeding with strength now?
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.