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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 344

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consolefreak | Posted 8/13/2006 7:15:09 AM | message detail

IGN overrates pretty much everything. They're well known as one of the easiest review sites on the Internet. There are exceptions, but I doubt this will be one of them.

I wasn't talking about the actual score (which I didn't even mention), just the content of the review.
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Nominate Vincent Valentine for the character battle!

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 7:42:15 AM | message detail

Last night I had a dream that I was talking to Ceej and transience about the contest. Ceej revealed that CATS and Gordon hadn't gotten enough nominations to make the bracket, and I started trying to convince him to put them in anyway. Then I said "you wouldn't keep Zero out if he didn't have enough nominations, would you?" (which is kind of dumb, since he obviously would). Then he revealed that Zero didn't have enough nominations either. Then he said he would just show me the whole nomination list, but I didn't get to actually look at it before the dream ended.

Anyway, that inspired me to go through and give probabilities on each character making the bracket this year. This took way longer to write than I expected, and is less interesting than I expected, but I'll post it since it's done. I'm only mentioning male characters, since female characters would have to be done entirely separately and I think we have less information to analyze them with.

Note: whenever I discuss seeding, I'm ignoring 2002 and the Villain Contest. 2002 because there weren't real nominations, and the Villain Contest because the field was so weak.

2005 CHARACTERS

Samus - 100%
Alright, I'm mentioning one female character. This contest was made for Samus. Nothing short of divine intervention will keep her out of the bracket.

Crono - 99%
Among the elite characters, Crono has always had the most trouble with nominations. However, he still shouldn't have any trouble making the contest. He's also the only character without an automatic bid who's ever beaten one of the characters that has an automatic bid. Even if he did fall short on nominations, he's one character I could see Ceej interceding for.

Mega Man - 99.9%
Mega Man is about as much as a lock as you can be without having half the bracket specifically designed for you to win.

Sonic - 99.9%
The most iconic character left to nominate, there's no way Sonic misses the contest.

Solid Snake - 99.9%
Snake has more or less become the unofficial mascot of the PS3. Between MGS4 hype and SSBB hype, I'd probably consider him the second biggest lock there is after Samus.

Bowser - 95%
Although King Koopa's repeatedly shown himself to be the second strongest Mario character, his seeds have never been outstanding. However, he has been in the upper half every time - he shouldn't have any trouble making the contest.

Vincent Valentine - 80%
Some people think Vincent is likely to miss the contest this year - personally, I don't think that's very likely. Vincent 2005 was a lot like Frog 2004 - both had rallies and made impressive runs in the contest. Frog did just fine in noms in 2005, and Vincent has the added benefits of Advent Children, upcoming Dirge of Cerberus, and KH2.

Squall Leonhart - 99%
Squall's been a contest staple since 2002, and has done better in seeding every year. He's also a board 8 favorite and is in KH2. He's a lock.

Kirby - 98%
Nominations will probably decline a little this year because he doesn't have a brand new DS game boosting him. Still virtually a lock.

Ganondorf - 75%
Now things are starting to get interesting. Ganon has never been especially strong in the seeding department (12/16, 8/16, and 3/8), which makes sense if you consider the nature of his popularity, which mostly comes from his association with the Legend of Zelda. He's strong enough that he'll probably make the contest, but I would not be surprised if he misses it.

Dante - 98%
Dante's always been seeded in the top quarter of the field, which suggests strong nomination support. He's virtually a lock.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 7:45:29 AM | message detail

Knuckles - 55%
Knuckles is an interesting case - he's been in every contest and is a strong character, but he's actually been seeded in the bottom half the last two years. His impressive win against Magus last year might give him a little bit of a boost in nominations. I rate his chances at slightly better than a coin flip.

Zero - 80%
Zero's always been seeded in the top half, but never higher than 4 (out of 16). He should be fairly safe.

Magus - 75%
Magus has done reasonably well seeding wise the last two years, and his status as a fan favorite should garner him some nominations. His humiliation at the hands of Knuckles last year may hurt him somewhat, but he's still likely to return.

Luigi - 95%
Luigi's seeding has been surprisingly good (3/16, 4/16, 2/8). With Nintendo's recent strength he should have no trouble making the contest.

Auron - 95%
Auron has had excellent seeding the last two years, and supposedly has a big role in KH II. He's also a fan favorite. Excellent chances of making the contest.

Master Chief - 99%
The X-Box nation will get Chief into the contest, guaranteed.

Donkey Kong - 50%
His seeding is cause for concern, and his status as a liked but not loved character won't help him with nominations. Kong deserves to return, but his spot is definitely at risk.

Ryu - 80%
The Street Fighter icon's standing took a hit in 2005, but he should still have what it takes to make the field. His series showed it still had some strength in last month's contest.

Tidus - 55%
Tidus's stock has been on the decline for years in this contest, with his beatings at the hands of Mega Man and Kirby, and his barely making the top half in seeding the past two years. With Square finally releasing some big new games, FF X will continue fading from people's memories. Tidus will need some luck to make the contest this year.

Yoshi - 85%
Yoshi's seeding has always been solid, and his status as the fan favorite Mario character should keep him relatively safe as far as nominations go.

Leon Kennedy - 30%
Leon Kennedy's got an uphill battle if he wants to make the contest again this year. Last year he was a beneficiary of the nomination rally tournament, and he still only managed a 5 seed (out of 8). This year RE4 is less of a big deal than it was last year. Finally, Leon didn't do anything especially exciting in last year's contest, beating Gordon and losing 65/35 to Mega Man.

Vivi - 65%
Vivi's been (barely) seeded in the top half for the last two contests. He also has a minor role in KH II (I believe). He's a fan favorite, so his nominators probably won't abandon him this year. He should make the contest, but is far from a lock.

Sora - 90%
With his big name sequel this year, and a history of respectable seeds (6/16, 6/16, 2/8), Clown Shoes should have no trouble making the contest.

Frog - 20%
In 2004 he was the beneficiary of one of the biggest nomination rallies of the year, and had good reason to make the contest as the third Chrono Trigger character. In 2005 he got a 5 seed on the basis of his 2004 run, and flopped hard. There's no need for him to return, and with only 32 male character spots I would honestly be surprised if he makes the contest this year.

Diablo - 20%
Last year, Diablo only managed a 5 seed coming off his villain contest run, and got crushed by Sonic. He's likely to be squeezed out this time.

Riku - 60%
Last year he was close to the borderline in nominations, but being part of this year's big sequel should keep him in the contest.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 7:48:17 AM | message detail

Ryu Hayabusa - 60%
Hayabusa's contest history would suggest him missing the contest this year, but in the last year he's had an extremely well recieved game, Ninja Gaiden Black. Considering how few characters the X-Box fans have to nominate, his chances of making the contest are pretty decent.

Tommy Vercetti - 25%
At this point, Tommy's old news. His seed has been dropping every year, and he's thoroughly demonstrated that he's not a contest force. Not very likely to return.

Alucard - 35%
Alucard's game keeps getting older, and he hasn't done anything impressive in the contest since 2003. Dawn of Sorrow may give him a minor boost in nominations, but he needs all the help he can get.

Gordon Freeman - 70%
Despite his contest record, Gordon has been the seeding favorite in most of his matches. He gets plenty of joke noms from board 8, and his game had a minor sequel released online just this summer. Not a lock, but he has a good chance of making the contest.

Kefka - 55%
Year after year, Kefka gets exposed as a chump, but year after year he continues to bring in nominations. He's enough of a fan favorite that he has a good chance of making the contest yet again, as much as he deserves to be booted.

Pac-Man - 15%
Pac-Man's seeds have been quite poor in the last two contests - sadly, the first gaming icon looks likely to miss the cut this time around. He does continue to get new games, but is anyone playing them? Hopefully Ms. Pac-Man will carry the Pac-Man standard this year.

Revolver Ocelot - 10%
Hyped as the next big thing in 2005, he failed to present a challenge to Bowser in the Villain Contest, and flopped hardcore in the Character Battle by losing to Pac-Man. Without his nomination rally, I expect his support to fall apart. The only point in his favor is the 2 seed he got last year, but I think most of his supporters from last year have moved on to supporting Raiden and The Boss.

Sam Fisher - 35%
Somehow, even in his worst year (2005) Sam managed a 5 seed. He's shown that he has no strength in the contest, but he does have some nomination support. On the other hand, his seeding has been on the decline every year. He has a game coming out in October, but that's probably too far away to influence nominations much.

Kratos Aurion - 25%
Board creation + easy first round loss + being from last year's game + half as many spots available = poor chances of returning.

Ness - 45%
For a character of his level, Ness has about as much going for him as he possibly could. He's got a cult following from the Earthbound fanbase, the support that comes from being in SSBM, and three years of contest experience under his belt. There was also a Mother sequel released in Japan this year, although that probably won't help him much since it hasn't come to the US and I don't believe he's in it.

Kratos - 40%
Kratos is another guy who came from "last year's game", however, unlike Leon and Lloyd, he didn't have a major board rally behind him - he'll benefit from the casual nominations brought in by the results page link. If he follows Tommy Vercetti's dropoff pattern, he'll still pull a respectable number of nominations this year. Unlike Tommy, he'll have a sequel to save him from cratering in his third year.

CATS - 50%
Even after four years, CATS remains a board favorite and a joke nom powerhouse. Unfortunately, his nominations from outside the board are likely close to nil. CATS is one joke character that Ceej does approve of, so with luck he'll be back to cause more hilarity again this year.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 7:50:06 AM | message detail

Conker - 3%
Somehow, Conker's managed to make three contests in a row. That streak comes to an end this year. Even with a game released right before last year's contest he only managed an 8 seed (out of 8), and the years before he was a 13 and a 14. Not many people will be sorry to see him go.

Zidane - 5%
Fair or not, Zidane's one match was an annihilation at the hands of Crono. Chances are he won't be back.

Carl Johnson - 15%
CJ is another character who's last year's news. Between that, the low seed in his first year, and his disappointing loss to Ness, there's a good chance his contest career is over. But he should still gather some casual noms from the GTA fans.

Jin Kazama - 0.5%
Jin has "one-time fodder" written all over him.

Geno - 4%
With 64 spots open Geno might have returned, but his chances in this format are considerably slimmer.

Big Boss - 2%
A low seed and poor performance in his first contest, a name many people who played his game don't recognize, and the removal of the chance he could get nominations intended for The Boss all spell bad news for Big Boss.

Cecil - 1%
Last year people wanted to see how old school FF characters could do. Now we know. If we see any more of them this year, they'll either be on the female side of the bracket or they'll be Kefka.

Lloyd Irving - 10%
He did manage a 2 seed and win a match, but that was with the help of a nomination rally tournament win. Any TOS support this year is going to Sheena or Kratos.

King of All Cosmos - 20%
The King of All Cosmos has shown surprising staying power in board nominations, but there's only room for so many joke characters per contest. He's also likely to get fewer casual nominations this year, since the PSP game isn't as big as the two PS2 games.

Albert Wesker - 1.5%
Getting doubled by Kefka and losing to Lloyd Irving is not exactly a recipe for contest success.

Laharl - 2.5%
Had his two years of fun. Disgaea 2 is coming out a little too late to help him this year.

Agent 47 - 4%
Neo-Tanner he wasn't, but the hitman's going to need to bump off quite a few people before he's in the top 32.

Vyse - 13.5%
Got embarassed last year, but still retains some popularity. He really wishes there were still 64 spots.

Manny Calavera - 2%
How he made it in without a real board rally remains one of the mysteries of the contest. Apparently there are some Lucasarts fans on GameFAQs, but that's not going to be enough this year.

Yuri - 0.1%
Somehow the Shadow Hearts fanbase has gotten an entrant into the last two contests, but if they want to do it this time, it will have to be on the female side.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 7:52:09 AM | message detail

2004 CHARACTERS

Liquid Snake - 5%
His chances are better than Big Boss's, but that's not saying much. After Sephiroth destroyed him in the Villain Contest, he lost most of his appeal.

Shadow the Hedgehog - 25%
There is something a little strange about going from two 9 seeds to out of the contest. He had his own game this year, but it was poorly received, so it's unknown how much it will help him. Still, he's probably the likeliest of the 2004 characters to return.

Miles "Tails" Prower - 24%
Then there's this guy. Although his contest strength is lower than Shadow's, he's gotten more nominations in the board nomination tally, and may be more of a fan favorite - especially among the old school Sonic fans. He deserves to return to the contest, but probably not this year.

Bomberman - 8%
I wouldn't count out this three-time contest vet, but he needs a lot of luck.

Viewtiful Joe - 5%
Joe has had games in the last year, including a DS game. It's not likely to be enough.

Scorpion - 2%
A 14 seed in 2004, and has since lost all his support in favor of Sub Zero. An extreme long shot.

Duke Nukem - 1%
Has Duke Nukem Forever been released yet? No. Is Duke making the contest? No.

Kain - 0.2%
As far as I know, he hasn't had a game in years.

HK-47 - 5%
He's a fan favorite, which is something. But KOTOR II was out last year, and he still didn't make the contest.

Max Payne - 1%
I forgot this guy was even in the 2004 contest. He should have retired after his win over Gordon in 2003.

Protoman - 5%
Like Zidane, got horrid bracket placement in his one appearance. Needs another shot, but not this year.

Crash Bandicoot - 2%
Apparently he had a game in November 2005. Who knew? Washed up.

Jak - 5%
If Jak 3 didn't get him into the contest last year, neither a PSP game or Jak X: Combat Racing is likely to do it.

Terry Bogard - 0.5%
One 16 seed appearance in the last three years doesn't speak well for his chances.

Luca Blight - 1%
Two humiliations were enough.

Earthworm Jim - 0.2%
One 16 seed appearance out of four contests. Not coming back.

Ryo Hazuki - 1%
He did make the contest three times, but Shen Mue has been pretty much forgotten by now.

Sly Cooper - 0.3%
Still hiding from Sephiroth. Not a single board nomination.

JC Denton - 0.5%
Hasn't had a game since 2003.

Ratchet - 2%
Funny how 2004 was the year of the modern platformers. Ratchet at least has gotten some recent games.

Guybrush Threepwood - 1%
The Lucasarts fans strike again! Guybrush may have made two contests, but I don't think he's making a third.

Tanner - 0%
lol.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 7:54:03 AM | message detail

2003 CHARACTERS

From here on I'm only going to include noteworthy characters, because there are so many of them.

Wario - 10%
Wario will probably return to the contest at some point, but he's too low on the Nintendo totem pole to do it this year with half the spots available.

Ken Masters - 4%
We're far more likely to see female Street Fighter characters this year than Ken. He has pulled a few board noms, however.

Fox McCloud - 40%
Fox has gathered a lot of rally support this year in the hopes of getting him back in the contest. With a regular 64 character bracket he'd have a great chance, but as it is he'll need to work for it.

Raiden - 50%
The winner of the returner's spot in the nomination rally tournament, Raiden is one of the top nomination-getters on the board. If he makes the contest, hopefully Ceej will give him an opponent other than Solid Snake this year.

Pikachu - 5%
Pokemon hate is dying down, and the series did well this year, but if a Pokemon makes the contest, it won't be Pikachu - not this year.

2002 CHARACTERS

Strider Hiryu - 1%
Sorry Strider, not this year.

Parappa the Rapper - 0.001%
I'm still waiting for Ceej to follow up the Villain Contest and the Female Bracket with the Best Video Game Rapper contest.

NOTABLE NEWCOMERS

Phoenix Wright - 98%
Phoenix Wright is miles ahead of everyone else in board nominations. His game has spawned a genuine fad, and the Objection site linked to the nomination form. I will be quite surprised if Phoenix doesn't make the contest.

Jay Solano - 1%
Had a great chance of making the contest until Ceej banned him. His only hope now is if Ceej changes his mind.

Prince of Persia - 80%
Nomination rally tournament winners have a pretty good record at getting into these things, and he should garner some casual nominations as well.

Captain Falcon - 65%
Being the umpteenth SSBM character makes him worse off than the Prince of Persia when it comes to casual nominations, and he's gotten about 15 fewer board nominations, but he's still in pretty good shape.

Nightmare - 60%
Another one of the nomination rally tournament winners, many people picked him early on as the most likely of the five to flop. After seeing Soul Calibur in the series tournament, many people really started to regret seeing him win the rally spot. Tough luck; ain't no gettin' offa this train we're on.

Sub-Zero - 50%
For years people have been pushing him as a better alternative to Scorpion as the Mortal Kombat representative. He can't seem to catch a break, though - this year he won a slot in the nomination rally tournament, and Ceej decides to hit him with his new 32/32 bracket design.

Midgar Zolom - 0%
Like Jay Solano, except with less nominations and without the claim of being a legitimate character. Ceej won't change his mind on this one.

Mewtwo - 25%
It would be good to see how a different Pokemon rep does, but it will probably have to wait.

Axel - 20%
Axel has the advantage of coming from a big new game, but has the disadvantage of having a lot of characters in that game who are more likely to get nominations than him.

Serge - 10%
A long shot, which is too bad (despite my dislike of Chrono Cross).

Miles Edgeworth - 4%
Unlikely to get much casual support. Might make it next year, if Justice For All can make the fad even bigger.

Seifer Almasy - 8%
Missed the villain contest, but it may have been on the "rival" technicality. Role in KH II helps him some, but probably not enough.

whew. Sorry about the wall o' text.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Slowflake | Posted 8/13/2006 7:57:43 AM | message detail

^5 would read again
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM

Who Cares? | Posted 8/13/2006 7:59:14 AM | message detail

Nice stuff Kaxon!
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Noms: Ken, Nightmare, Sub Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden(MGS), Knuckles, Sora
Chun-Li, Morrigan, Sheena, Cammy, Presea, Talim, Ayane

Nintendo Wiii | Posted 8/13/2006 8:05:45 AM | message detail

Your contest gurus:

1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Team Rocket Elite
3 - Ngamer64
4 - ChichiriMuyo
5 - Explicit Content
6 - transience
7 - Master Moltar
8 - Mac Arrowny
9 - dethfdddddh
10 - Draco1214
11 - arkenaga
12 - Yoshifan823
13 - MasterofHunters
14 - Z1mZum
15 - Shivan Reincarnated
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - DomaDragoon
18 - Janus5000
19 - Applekidjosh
20 - BlAcK TuRtLe
21 - bobeta
22 - greatone
23 - NewLib
24 - Big Bob
25 - HaRRicH
26 - meche313
27 - MarioSuperstar
28 - RockMFR 5
29 - cavalier lowen
30 - Bobby200614
31 - junglebob22
32 - Heroic Mario
33 - yoblazer33
34 - trizob the hedgehog
35 - Aprosenf
36 - MoogleKupo141
37 - voltch
38 - XxSoulxX, yo
39 - Lieutenant Kettch
40 - A worlds envy
41 - Osfan
42 - ff6man
43 - rpgapzx
44 - Viviff
45 - expaniol
46 - Red Sox 777
47 - ps2rulezzz
48 - cyko
49 - jonthomson
50 - jeevesthemole
51 - Luis_Sera89
52 - Phediuk
53 - FFDragon
54 - Vile Requiem
55 - charmander6000
56 - Radix
57 - Tediz247
58 - Brett with Atreyu
59 - Yesmar
60 - shadow8021
61 - Jman_gamerX8
62 - Snip Snip Now
63 - Tirofog
64 - LuniNutz99
65 - Zylo the wolf
66 - Kaxon
67 - KingBartz
68 - longbladeofhiko
69 - Dekar TKB
70 - spikevegeta
71 - Azp2k32
72 - Ori
73 - CountCrazy007
74 - Lopen
75 - Chinballz
76 - Soniclink15
77 - ccbfan
78 - Fett0001
79 - Dark115
80 - Dilated Chemist
81 - Steve Illumina
82 - outsider920
83 - ExThaNemesis
84 - HeroicGammaRay
85 - RPGuy96
86 - Pathetique
87 - SonicRaptor
88 - swirldude
89 - TheRye
90 - Steinershocker
91 - XIII is sexy
92 - Smurf
93 - freac
94 - Redtooth
95- FastFalcon05
96 - Rufus Shinra 18
97 - _Harmonica_
98 - Nintendo Wiii

Zylo the wolf | Posted 8/13/2006 9:36:32 AM | message detail

When did he say that he would ban Jay Solano? Generic character yes, but there's only one Jay Solano.

CjayC is such a N-Gage hater! >_>
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Arc the Lad > Shining Force. Andel DID notice >_> Z1m Zum > Me

charmander6000 | Posted 8/13/2006 9:43:12 AM | message detail

I think he banned him on counts of being a joke character.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest

THEJackSparrow | Posted 8/13/2006 11:42:44 AM | message detail

I don't know if I would put Vincent's odds quite that high, but I also don't think he's in quite as much danger as people think. As long as FFVII fans read the rules (DON'T NOMINATE CLOUD OR SEPHY, KIDS!), he'll be the number one male.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow

Lopen | Posted 8/13/2006 11:52:47 AM | message detail

I actually agree with most of those %s, but I think CATS is low. If I had given him odds, I'd have put him at 80% at least... maybe higher. Him not getting in as an 8 seed would shock me. I have a feeling CJay tweaks with his seeding anyway... I don't think he's "just barely getting in" every time. (the villains contest he was allowed to try and spread his wings because the field was just that pathetic and CJay knew it, methinks)

Heck, even if he didn't have any board nominations... I still wouldn't count him out. He's like the mascot of the GameFAQs contests!
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.

LeonhartForever | Posted 8/13/2006 11:55:09 AM | message detail

Speaking of odds, let's play the Odds game!

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

That should be enough for now.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling

Slowflake | Posted 8/13/2006 11:56:37 AM | message detail

Clinkerothio makes me twitch. Clinkarioth has a much better ring to it.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM

Tjian | Posted 8/13/2006 11:56:53 AM | message detail

LeonhartForever | Posted 8/13/2006 11:59:08 AM | message detail

Clinkarioth has a much better ring to it.

That just sounds too awkward and it's not so easy on the tongue.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling

longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/13/2006 12:03:48 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

Pretty likely. One of them is bound to get a good seeding and get past some Round 1 fodder. I'm putting my money on the Prince or Nightmare.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

Not too likely, but I wouldn't be too shocked if Fujin or Quisitis made the female field.

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

Not very likely at all cept for the Vivi.

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

Marle or Lucca is possible, but I'm not thinking its gonna happen.

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest
Not happening. Its possible though I guess.

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

Uhh....nah, I don't think so.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

I can honestly see Vincent not making it for some reason. Even if he did kick a lotta ass. But if you want a more realistic pick, Diablo. Least I think he made top 25.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

Very likely if we get 8 divisions, 4 of which consist of the female side.

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

Maybe. Depends where hes seeded.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

Very likely. Celes is getting more attention than Rydia though. I don't really care for getting in fodderistic FF6 characters every year though.

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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?

THEJackSparrow | Posted 8/13/2006 12:04:53 PM | message detail

Diablo was 35th, actually.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/13/2006 12:06:35 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

1:100,000

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

1:1 - Rinoa

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

1:1.5 - Garnet

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

1:1.5 between the three ladies

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

1:2

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

1:2 - Ness

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

1:2 - Vincent (sadly)

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

1:5

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

1:15

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

1:2
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CountCrazy007 | Posted 8/13/2006 12:08:09 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

90%. Only because of a female half of the bracket with potential for some serious fodder.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

20%. Not likely, but a possibility in the females.

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

10% if there are 32 males getting in, which is what we think is happening. I don't think see Vivi beating out 31 other people. I don't see any females out of them, either.

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

0%

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

20%. It's that high because there's a big question mark involving the female side.

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

Sure, I think we'll see one of them, at least. 80%.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

I don't feel comfortable putting a number on it, but either Magus or DK would miss out if anyone.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

100%. Ceej will give it to him, especially with the lack of Clinkerothio. (Unless there isn't a ToC for some reason...)

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

30%. I don't see him doing it.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

0%.

I went a little extreme for the most part with each side, which is what you're supposed to do in odds maker, IMO. =P
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4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest

Yesmar | Posted 8/13/2006 12:17:11 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

75%. They'll probably get decent enough seeding. Although, if they don't, I wouldn't bet on it.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

80%. I would be pretty surprised if Rinoa or Quistis didn't make the Female Half

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

Vivi: 65%
Anyone else: 15%

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

50%. I think Marle has a decent chance of making the Female half.

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

50%. I'm not sure the Gurus will be enough. She wasn't even in the top 10 of the Nomination Tally last time I checked.

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

25%. Anything's possible, but I can't think of any that I think would make it.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

15%. I just checked the list, and I can't really see anyone from it getting snubbed.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

40%. I wouldn't bet on it. If Crono couldn't get 1 out of 8 last year, I doubt he'll be able to pull it off if there are only 4 male 1 seeds.

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

35%. He'll come close, but not that close.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

70%. Rydia has a pretty decent shot considering that FFIV just got rereleased.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

Yesmar | Posted 8/13/2006 12:20:54 PM | message detail

Up my other FFIX character prediction to 60%. Garnet has pretty good odds of getting in.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

Lopen | Posted 8/13/2006 12:26:45 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

50%. Given anything resembling realistic seeding, I think only Raiden and Sub Zero have anything resembling a good chance. But, if they all get in somehow, odds are two will fight each other.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

80%. Rinoa and especially Quistis have a good chance of making the female half. Assuming it's set up that way. The male half? No.

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

30%. Let's say 10% for two. This is mostly from Vivi... though maybe Garnet could get in. (No, Zidane, no)

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

75%. Marle, Lucca, and Ayla aren't especially popular, but I figure one has to get in.

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

30%. The gurus are all she's got... and I don't think most of us even nominated her, sadly. (I did, though!) Still, it shouldn't be too hard to get an 8 seed on the Female Half if the bracket is Male Half/Female Half like it's looking to be.

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

10%. Kratos Aurion and Vyse are the only ones I think have any chance. But the ToS fad isn't as strong as last year, and Vyse's seeding has been slipping.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

85%. I think Knuckles, Donkey Kong, and maybe even Magus are looking ripe to miss. My money's on Knuckles, though.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

8%. Mega Man, Solid Snake, Sonic... probably Master Chief or Sora for the fourth. I'd say even Dante or Kirby have better odds at the fourth one.

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

5%. Barring SFF matches screwing up portions of the bracket, I don't think it'll happen.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

16%. 15% for Rydia... 1% for the rest.

Maybe I'm underestimating how difficult it'll be to get a spot in the female half, but I don't think so.
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.

Janus5000 | Posted 8/13/2006 12:27:56 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

55%, though it decreases to maybe 5% if the males and females are split.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

95%. Quistis and/or Rinoa will probably make it.

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

70%. Even if Vivi doesn't return, Garnet probably will make it.

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

75%. None of the ladies are that popular among the fanbase, but surely one of them will make it.

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

35%. Seems like a longshot.

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

10%. The top seeds need to kill something in round 1.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

75%. Knuckles and Vincent are at the greatest risk.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

30%. If there are only four male 1 seeds, the Chief will more than likely take the fourth one.

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

40%. Seems a bit much, though with KHII I wouldn't be too surprised.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

20%. Even Rydia's an extreme longshot if there are only 32 females.
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Those who are ordinary gurus decide nothing. Z1mZum decides everything. Including my nominating Toadette.

CountCrazy007 | Posted 8/13/2006 12:29:02 PM | message detail

Oh, and, I based my prediction for the 2nd question on the percentage of characters that I could think of that have a chance of getting in. Yeah... it was really dumb. Rinoa/Quistis have a 50% chance of getting in, IMO.
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4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest

voltch | Posted 8/13/2006 12:33:31 PM | message detail

has it really been confirmed that a 32/32 bracket is on?

if so i shudder to think of the famle fodder.
lara croft and blood rayne.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.

dethfdddddh | Posted 8/13/2006 12:34:31 PM | message detail

People are understimating Sora; he only did 2% worse on Hayabusa than Zero did and 2% worse than Ganon on Alucard. Those are two characters that are great to be around.
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 12:35:36 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

Well, there are five of them, but their side of the field is going to be tougher than usual. 33%.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

I think Seifer and Laguna both have poor chances, but Rinoa and Quistis both have a decent shot on the other side. 75%.

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

Well, I already gave Vivi odds at 65%. I'd say the chances we see Garnet are around similar, around 60%. No one else is very likely, although I suppose Freya and Beatrix are both possibilities.

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

60%. 59.9% of that probability is on the girls' side of the bracket.

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

75%. If everyone who was in the guru contest actually nominated her, she'd be a lock.

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

Do you count Ness? It seems like an undeserving cult RPG character always sneaks in somehow - I doubt this year will be different. 80%.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

95%. Fun fact: someone from the previous year's top 25 has missed the contest every year so far. According to my numbers up above, I think DK is the most likely to miss the cut, closely followed by Knuckles.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

Depends entirely on the structure Ceej uses - if it's 8x8 with a TOC, his chances are great, if it's 4x16 with no TOC, not so much. I think 8x8 with a TOC is the most likely, so I'll say 75%.

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

I think his chances of getting SFFed are too great. 33%.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

Rydia's not just most likely, she's the only one with a prayer (although somehow it seems Faris has gotten 8 board noms). 50%.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Kaxon | Posted 8/13/2006 12:43:38 PM | message detail

A big reason I think Crono is more likely to get a 1 seed than Master Chief is because he beat him head to head last year. Kind of like Mega Man/Snake in 2004, I think their seeding may be reversed this time.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

Lopen | Posted 8/13/2006 12:47:08 PM | message detail

People are understimating Sora; he only did 2% worse on Hayabusa than Zero did and 2% worse than Ganon on Alucard. Those are two characters that are great to be around.

Well, two reasons I don't think that's as good as it looks.

1. Arabusa. I think that makes Ryu Hayabusa way weaker. I think many casual NG fans don't even know that his name is Ryu Hayabusa, and that picture just confuses. Sora does much worse against Ninja Hayabusa, I say.

2. I think Alucard's decaying, I think he was stronger in 2K4. Ganondorf could've been weaker in 2K4 as well... considering he struggled with Tidus in 2K3... we don't know when the two got that huge strength change.

Basically I just looked at the top 20 of the 2K6 adjusted stats, and said... with a KH2 boosted Sora, would I take him over any of em? There's also Aeris, too, and some beyond 20 I don't think he'll outrank either.
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.

Who Cares? | Posted 8/13/2006 5:30:56 PM | message detail

Clinkerothio makes me twitch. Clinkarioth has a much better ring to it.

Uhh, no! >_> Clinkerothio is far better.
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Noms: Ken, Nightmare, Sub Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden(MGS), Knuckles, Sora
Chun-Li, Morrigan, Sheena, Cammy, Presea, Talim, Ayane

DomaDragoon | Posted 8/13/2006 6:00:12 PM | message detail

I can't do odds like Chichiri does, so percentages will have to do.

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

Hmm... assuming that all of them make it, there's still the problems of seeding and the like. A few of them could likely win against pseudo-fodder, so I'll say a 30% chance of it happening.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

I'm not too confident in the girls making it, and it's even less likely that the guys are going to have a second entry. So I'll put it at 15%, with most of that from Rinoa.

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

Naw, can't see it. 1%.

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

It'd have to be a girl, unless you really think Dalton or Robo have anything approaching a fanbase here. Lucca and Ayla aren't really all that popular, but I could see Marle making the cut if people thought of her. I'll put it at 40%.

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

99%, with the 1% being from the Solano Clause. Of course, all the Gurus did nominate her, right?

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

Define cult. Would Ness count? 5%.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

100%. It's going to happen.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

0%. If he couldn't get it last year, I don't think it'll ever happen. I mean, come on. KIRBY?!

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

15% in the unadjusted, 40% in at least one reasonably, generally accepted adjusted set.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

Not looking too good outside the Caller, but she's got a fair shot, I think. 35%.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/13/2006 6:00:18 PM | message detail

But...Clinkerothio has that ridiculous "e" in it! Where the **** does that come from? What idiot came up with "Clinkeroth" instead of "Clinkiroth"? And then people kept using it, with the "e" included! Does no one on GameFAQs know how to spell?
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.

RPGuy96 | Posted 8/13/2006 6:01:53 PM | message detail

I blame yoblazer.
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix, Ness
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas, Toadette, thanks to Guru Champ Z1mZum

CountCrazy007 | Posted 8/13/2006 6:02:08 PM | message detail

Clinkiroth is misleading in the way it's pronounced.
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4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest

FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/13/2006 6:29:01 PM | message detail

I too, blame yoblazer.

Anyway, I can't believe some of the percentages being given out in Leon's odds do-hicky. The one that sticks out the most is the low ass percentages some people are giving to another FF8 character making it other than Squall. If Rinoa doesn't make the field I'll hit myself in the balls with a hammer, and record it for you guys to see.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!

THEJackSparrow | Posted 8/13/2006 6:36:41 PM | message detail

I suppose I'll throw in my two cents on my own statements.

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

I'll say 10% if the format turns out to be what we think it is (32 males, 32 females). Odds would have been much higher if we had gotten at least ONE female out of the group. The 10% comes from the possibility that one could be drastically overseeded (Hey, Lloyd!) or two face each other.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

I'll say 85% here. Rinoa and/or Quistis should get in, though I thought Seifer was a mortal lock for the Villains Contest, too... *shrugs*

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

I'll give Vivi himself a 35% chance. I seriously think he's in danger of missing the cut. Anyone else? I suppose Dagger has a chance, so I'll give two FFIX characters a 20% chance

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

I'm going to shoot high and say 95% chance of it. For all of this talk that the girls aren't that popular among the CT fanbase, keep in mind that Lavos made the Villains Contest. Lavos. Surely the CT fanbase will get enough support for one female to get in.

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

15% chance. Even a large number of Gurus didn't actually nominate her (and I said it would probably happen if somebody tried to pick a fodderific character, not that I blame them).

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

With Ness factored in, I'd say 65%, though he could miss the cut as well. But somehow, some obscure cult RPG character half the board has never heard of sneaks in out of nowhere every year (Hi, Yuri!).

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

Considering 22 out of the 25 are males and not all got good seeding (though except for Knuckles, they'd be projected to make it based on a 32 male field), and the fact that some lower level characters will undoubtedly take up spots (Kefka is a mortal lock, in my opinion. I don't know why anybody thinks he's going to miss out. Plus, Gordon Freeman and CATS have good chances), I'll say there's a 100% chance. It happens every year, but we don't always know who it will be. With limited nominations, Donkey Kong has a good chance of getting the short end of the stick, with Knuckles right behind him.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

I'll give him a 25% chance here. He'll probably get stuck with a 2 seed in the division of whoever the non-Noble Niner #1 seed is, unless it's Master Chief. However, Ceej has admitted to tweaking seeding, so who knows?

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

Looking at who he needs to beat, it may seem unlikely, but I believe he is highly underrated and KHII will do a lot for him. I could honestly see him giving Dante or Knuckles a run for their money. I'll say 35% here.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

40% chance. Come on, how many worthwhile females are out there worth nominating? Most of them are in RPGs, and Final Fantasy has the monopoly on that...
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow

DeepHyren12 | Posted 8/13/2006 8:35:02 PM | message detail

I don't think a CT female is likely to get in; the split fanbase will kill it. Marle, Lucca, and Ayla will almost certainly get enough votes combined to get in, but individually, they won't be able to make it.
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Tai | Posted 8/13/2006 11:21:29 PM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

50%.

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

5%. NOt that I know FF. >_>

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

90% Vivi makes it, and 10% another one does. Again, I don't know FF characters. -_-'

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

10%?

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

I suppose you mean Peach...75%. Her game more or less helps.

She should have been a nomination rally winner. :(

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

Man, we haven't even confirmed this, have we? Well, I'll bite for the sake of the question; 10%.

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

Uh..*flips to said section*

You know, if it was a normal contest, I would have said they all made it without thinking. I mean, we haven't confirmed what this contest will be all about, but if it really will be 32 male and 32 female, I suppose I'd take 60%.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

0%. 0%. 0%. *explodes*

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

lol x-stats

Uh, 50%.

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

I uh..25%.
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rpgapzx | Posted 8/14/2006 2:31:42 AM | message detail

If Rinoa doesn't make the field I'll hit myself in the balls with a hammer, and record it for you guys to see.

This gives me an idea. Once the contest begins we should create a seperate topic to ensure that claims of this sort are created, available to all of Board 8, and followed through on. Perhaps even a website?
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Poker is living proof that men are the irrational sex.

ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/14/2006 2:49:46 AM | message detail

"I don't think a CT female is likely to get in; the split fanbase will kill it. Marle, Lucca, and Ayla will almost certainly get enough votes combined to get in, but individually, they won't be able to make it."

Tends not to be the case with other games, probably not the case with this one either. I'm actually rethinking a lot of my odds and I think Marle alone is a coin flip or better.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/14/2006 5:01:29 AM | message detail

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

I suppose you mean Peach...75%. Her game more or less helps.

dot dot dot
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.

ccbfan | Posted 8/14/2006 5:06:56 AM | message detail

1. Odds that a Nomination Rally winner wins a match

One of them will be a ridculesly high seed on the famale side and win 1. 80%

2. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy VIII character besides Squall

I think one of the females are in. 70%

3. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy IX character at all (and if you think Vivi makes it, odds that a second FFIX character makes it)

I think Garnet could get in. 50%

4. Odds that we see a new Chrono Trigger character

One of the females should get in 90%

5. Odds that Toadette actually makes the contest

Maybe, the female cast is weak. 50%

6. Odds that we see ANY cult RPG characters on the males side (Vyse, Laharl, Luca, Kratos Aurion, etc.)

Probably, I mean Llord got a 2 seed and I think the valk profile chick might make the female side. 70%

7. Odds that somebody in the top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses the contest (and who do you think is the MOST likely to miss out?)

One of the males are gonna miss out. Vincent and Knuckles are the favorites. 70%.

8. Odds that Crono finally gets a 1 seed this year (he's gone up one seed every year)

One of the running jokes in this contest is that Crono has to be underseeded. I mean if he could not get a top seed out of 6 spots last year (minus mario and samus), he's not gonna get one out of 4. Crono could win the contest and still not get a top seed. 10%

9. Odds that Sora breaks the top 20 in the 2006 overall stats (females and Clinkerothio included, yo)

depends on the SFF mumbo jumbo and the circluar math that goes on. Since I have no idea how those work. 50%

10. Odds that we see a Final Fantasy character from before FFVI (Rydia is probably the most likely, I'd say)

Rydia is pretty much the only character with a chance and since I'm pulling for her 100% :)

Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/14/2006 5:19:51 AM | message detail

Kinda off-topic, but here seems like an alright place to mention it.

The FFXIII team is the team that did the FFVII PS3 tech demo, correct? And they are the same team that would do the FFVII remake? So we probably shouldn't expect to see an FFVII remake until at least two years or so after FFXIII comes out, right? And since FFXIII's likely release year is 2008, that means no FFVII remake until 2010.
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Sephirot1 Returns | Posted 8/14/2006 7:21:17 AM | message detail

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2 - Team Rocket Elite
3 - Ngamer64
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6 - transience
7 - Master Moltar
8 - Mac Arrowny
9 - dethfdddddh
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11 - arkenaga
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15 - Shivan Reincarnated
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31 - junglebob22
32 - Heroic Mario
33 - yoblazer33
34 - trizob the hedgehog
35 - Aprosenf
36 - MoogleKupo141
37 - voltch
38 - XxSoulxX, yo
39 - Lieutenant Kettch
40 - A worlds envy
41 - Osfan
42 - ff6man
43 - rpgapzx
44 - Viviff
45 - expaniol
46 - Red Sox 777
47 - ps2rulezzz
48 - cyko
49 - jonthomson
50 - jeevesthemole
51 - Luis_Sera89
52 - Phediuk
53 - FFDragon
54 - Vile Requiem
55 - charmander6000
56 - Radix
57 - Tediz247
58 - Brett with Atreyu
59 - Yesmar
60 - shadow8021
61 - Jman_gamerX8
62 - Snip Snip Now
63 - Tirofog
64 - LuniNutz99
65 - Zylo the wolf
66 - Kaxon
67 - KingBartz
68 - longbladeofhiko
69 - Dekar TKB
70 - spikevegeta
71 - Azp2k32
72 - Ori
73 - CountCrazy007
74 - Lopen
75 - Chinballz
76 - Soniclink15
77 - ccbfan
78 - Fett0001
79 - Dark115
80 - Dilated Chemist
81 - Steve Illumina
82 - outsider920
83 - ExThaNemesis
84 - HeroicGammaRay
85 - RPGuy96
86 - Pathetique
87 - SonicRaptor
88 - swirldude
89 - TheRye
90 - Steinershocker
91 - XIII is sexy
92 - Smurf
93 - freac
94 - Redtooth
95- FastFalcon05
96 - Rufus Shinra 18
97 - _Harmonica_
98 - Nintendo Wiii
99 - Tjian
100 - Sephirot1
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Destroyed!!! That's what Z1mZum said when he won the Guru Contest.

FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/14/2006 8:44:36 AM | message detail

As I read Tai's post all I could think to myself was "lol olo lol ololo lol olool ol ol ololololol"

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!

plasmabeam | Posted 8/14/2006 9:56:04 AM | message detail

1 - UltimaterializerX
2 - Team Rocket Elite
3 - Ngamer64
4 - ChichiriMuyo
5 - Explicit Content
6 - transience
7 - Master Moltar
8 - Mac Arrowny
9 - dethfdddddh
10 - Draco1214
11 - arkenaga
12 - Yoshifan823
13 - MasterofHunters
14 - Z1mZum
15 - Shivan Reincarnated
16 - MegatokyoEd
17 - DomaDragoon
18 - Janus5000
19 - Applekidjosh
20 - BlAcK TuRtLe
21 - bobeta
22 - greatone
23 - NewLib
24 - Big Bob
25 - HaRRicH
26 - meche313
27 - MarioSuperstar
28 - RockMFR 5
29 - cavalier lowen
30 - Bobby200614
31 - junglebob22
32 - Heroic Mario
33 - yoblazer33
34 - trizob the hedgehog
35 - Aprosenf
36 - MoogleKupo141
37 - voltch
38 - XxSoulxX, yo
39 - Lieutenant Kettch
40 - A worlds envy
41 - Osfan
42 - ff6man
43 - rpgapzx
44 - Viviff
45 - expaniol
46 - Red Sox 777
47 - ps2rulezzz
48 - cyko
49 - jonthomson
50 - jeevesthemole
51 - Luis_Sera89
52 - Phediuk
53 - FFDragon
54 - Vile Requiem
55 - charmander6000
56 - Radix
57 - Tediz247
58 - Brett with Atreyu
59 - Yesmar
60 - shadow8021
61 - Jman_gamerX8
62 - Snip Snip Now
63 - Tirofog
64 - LuniNutz99
65 - Zylo the wolf
66 - Kaxon
67 - KingBartz
68 - longbladeofhiko
69 - Dekar TKB
70 - spikevegeta
71 - Azp2k32
72 - Ori
73 - CountCrazy007
74 - Lopen
75 - Chinballz
76 - Soniclink15
77 - ccbfan
78 - Fett0001
79 - Dark115
80 - Dilated Chemist
81 - Steve Illumina
82 - outsider920
83 - ExThaNemesis
84 - HeroicGammaRay
85 - RPGuy96
86 - Pathetique
87 - SonicRaptor
88 - swirldude
89 - TheRye
90 - Steinershocker
91 - XIII is sexy
92 - Smurf
93 - freac
94 - Redtooth
95- FastFalcon05
96 - Rufus Shinra 18
97 - _Harmonica_
98 - Nintendo Wiii
99 - Tjian
100 - Sephirot1
101 - plasmabeam

---
I got a Castlevania-style whipping from Z1mZum in the Guru contest
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) Eliminated from playoffs

Haste_2 | Posted 8/14/2006 10:10:02 AM | message detail

-65% chance a NR winner wins...CJayC sets things up.
-70% chance we'll see a female FF8 character...Quistis and Rinoa might split nominations, so I say it's not 100%.
-60% chance we'll see an FF9 character...I say it's a so-so chance for Garnet, though I'm worried about Vivi.
-70% chance we'll see a new CT character...however, Marle and Lucca seem to be splitting nominations.
-40% chance Toadette makes the contest.
-25% chance we'll see a cult RPG male...well, we've got Vyse and Laharl who have refused to leave in the past...maybe a decent chance.
-85% chance somebody from the Top 25 of the 2005 adjusted stats misses out. I really doubt DK will make it.
-75% chance Crono will be a 1 seed this year. He's gotten more contest recognition since last year, plus Mario's gone, but many new visitors might not allow that...
-35% chance Sora breaks the Top 20 in the x-stats...it'll be close, at least.
-20% chance we'll see an older FF character make it...who could make it besides Rydia?

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."

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