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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 344

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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/10/2006 12:32:39 AM | message detail
"I think it's hilarious that fans of "pics don't matter" turn around and say that SSBM vs FFX was too unfair."

Hardly. As one of those peopel you speak of, I assure you I've said no thing. I MUST question your sanity of you believe that pics do matter and that you could get any more stacked than ANYTHING SSBM gets, though, barring a pic like it had against SMB.

"If I look at that SSBM/FFX pic and automatically think "Tidus is getting owned lol", I'm sure there are others who think the same thing."

Yes, but does that influence how they vote? How do you account for people who see than and vote the opposite because of it?

"SSB/M's pic-advantage is almost always going to be accounted as part of its strength"

that's just plain stupid. If the pics give SSBM any additional strength at all it's because the pics feature popular Nintendo characters. Here's the catch, though, EVERBODY ALREADY ****ING KNEW THAT! You don't need a pic to tell you Link is in SSBM, and if you do you probably don't know who Link is anyway.

Here's the thing about pictures: They can, barring joke pics (Duke Milkem) only affect people who are genuinely torn on who to vote for in a match. Unrecognizable pictures don't hurt, because every voter still see your name before they vote. Period.

Really, the only way a match pic can influence noticable numbers of votes is when a large number of people don't know who either of the two are. There simply aren't that many people who will hold any two given games in exactly the same regard (unless they've played neither) AND use the pictures as a means of deciding it for them (typically they'll see who is losing and vote for them, I'd bet).

If you have a match like Laharl vs. Vyse and wanna tell me that the picture might have influence people, let's talk. If you want to tell me that people don't know characters like Bowser and Snake and are using pictures to make their decisions for them I'm going to laugh in your face. That's the best you deserve, after all.

Yes, there are anomalies. Yes, Snake is notorious for allowing odd performances but he's not the only one (You say Frog, I say Magus). Is this because of pictures? Don't be ridiculous. If a perfectly good Link picture gives Magus a mad "false-boost" then I have no reason to believe, or not question the sanity of, anyone who tells me they think the picture is what did it for Frog. His best bud Magus points to that being WRONG, after all, and you're not going to tell me that Link does poorly in the sprite rounds are you?

Really, guys, don't jump to crazy-ass conclussions without thinking first. Frog is not the only charactre to have an amazing showing one year and tank the next. In fact, he's not the only one from his game to do it (as pointed out). What explanation do you give for Magus? For Vivi? Ryu (who was consistent for years)? How about Seph in the Villains contest? Vyse? Weird crap happens in these contests, most of it is inexplicable. So why are we pointing at such a limited factor as the sole source of the problem when we KNOW there are just too many factors for us to even consider?

Sure, I'll give you that a pic can make a small difference. But being realistic, I think there's a lot more going on we can't see that makes it impossible for us to tell how much that little bit is. Suffice it to say, with all the other unnaccountable oddities, we can't name pictures as a leading cause of voter irregularity. There's too much floating around already.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2006 12:58:02 AM | message detail
you're not going to tell me that Link does poorly in the sprite rounds are you?

I won't, but I know I've heard it be said before -- Leonhart comes to mind, but it might have been somebody else...it's been awhile.


that's just plain stupid. If the pics give SSBM any additional strength at all it's because the pics feature popular Nintendo characters. Here's the catch, though, EVERBODY ALREADY ****ING KNEW THAT! You don't need a pic to tell you Link is in SSBM, and if you do you probably don't know who Link is anyway.

Right, which is what I was meaning -- it's always going to have recognizable big-name characters represent it, and it's usually going to have numbers on its side as well. What I said was that you'll practically never see SSB/M lose big on the match-pic and be at a disadvantage, whereas most of its opponents are capable of losing big pic-wise and have shown to be less likely to have a great pic, even if it features stronger characters.



Chichiri's post hopefully calmed this subject down though -- it has me, at least. I still think pictures have an effect though if the focus is noticably more favorable to one subject than the other, but I'm ready to give it a rest for now.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Lopen | Posted 8/10/2006 1:09:47 AM | message detail
If you want to tell me that people don't know characters like Bowser and Snake and are using pictures to make their decisions for them I'm going to laugh in your face

When I support pictures making a difference, I'm not saying that at all. For matches like that, I think there are people who say "I like Snake, I like Bowser... Bowser looks cooler, I'll vote Bowser". Or, "they both suck, but Bowser looks cooler at least".

Though we should probably give this a rest... it's slowing down because of this picture talk, you know!
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/10/2006 1:40:37 AM | message detail
Rah rah, too lazy to read what you guys are talking about. >.< I've been away for a few days.
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Everything's 10X better with a RKO and Orton pose. ~ Donkey111
CountCrazy007 | Posted 8/10/2006 8:21:14 AM | message detail
I believe that pictures only matter for the casuals who don't know who these two characters are. Anyways...
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4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2006 8:22:01 AM | message detail
I just happened to find this poll:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=263

To see SM64 be beaten by four games and the "Other" option, no matter the vote-totals or time, that's surprising. Not to say that SM64 would lose to any of them for sure (except LoZ:OoT), but, ya know...plus, maybe Goldeneye wasn't SFF'd nearly as hard as we thought -- Goldeneye and especially PD both did surprisingly well. Hard to say, that's all.....

I know Leonhart'll agree with me that the poll is just flat-out old, but it's still somewhat-stunning to see how that poll went.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Big Bob | Posted 8/10/2006 8:41:52 AM | message detail
Perfect Dark got 2nd? Wow, we should get Joanna in a...nevermind.
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Damned Z1mZum, beating me by one point. I'm gonna be pissed if Toadette makes 2k6 and Mewtwo doesn't.
Gomu gomu nooooooooo Pistol!
charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2006 10:06:25 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 8/10/2006 10:13:09 AM | message detail
That didn't come out right

I think vote totals do matter. If you were to vote in any of the options it would go up by .01%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/10/2006 10:13:10 AM | message detail
Right, but do you really need to see the rest of the cast of FFX to get the idea that it's FFX?

Right, but do you really need to see a good picture of Solid Snake to know that it's Solid Snake when his name is next to the poll option?

And the idea isn't that SSBM doesn't have some inherent picture advantage (it didn't matter against FFVII because the picture there had the entire FFVII cast on the other side, same idea). It's that it was the entire SSBM cast...getting ready to maul the worst picture of Tidus out there. It was stacked. A picture of Tidus, Auron, and Yuna vs. say...Link, Mario, and Samus might have still been in favor of SSBM, but it would've been balanced at least. Catch the difference?
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/10/2006 10:19:15 AM | message detail
Personally, I think a tidal wave of the FFX cast versus a huge picture of Link would have favored SSBM even more. Man, that would have made an awesome match pic.
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/10/2006 2:43:58 PM | message detail
Really, the only way a match pic can influence noticable numbers of votes is when a large number of people don't know who either of the two are.

I disagree. People here seem to think that people are robots and have a set order of preference for EVERYBODY, which is off to say the least. There are only a set number of characters that make contest appearances that I really like. Knuckles > Zero > Sonic > Bowser > Link > Everyone else. After that, it doesn't really matter. We are all gamers here, it's not like we don't play or are not at least familiar with many types of games. I like Mario, Snake, and Mega Man a bit, but I don't have a set order I stick to... In the instance that it looked like Mega Man was blasting Snake's face in during 2k4, I chuckled and took Mega Man. If Mega Man had been in Sora's spot in that Snake/Sora match pic, I would have chuckled and taken Snake. That's just one example I know, but I'm stressing that people have no set order for ALL of the characters.

I know it's not the majority, or even a decent chunk of voters, but come on. Just look at the few people here that said they would be influenced by a pic. How many people post in this topic? 100? Not even? Why is it so hard to fathom that a small percentage of voters feel the same as me? The people that disagree with pics making a difference are probably among 95% or so that they don't make a difference for. But you can't sit here and say that pics don't matter at all. I still don't see why it's unfathomable to think that 2-3% could be influenced by a biased pic.

But anyways, it does indeed have more to do with recognition. You'd never catch me saying that Solid **** sucks because of recognition. I'd put it more on him simply looking like ****. But that's just me!
steve illumina | Posted 8/10/2006 5:38:24 PM | message detail
Oh my poor kiddies...I know you all eagerly await the next contest because my commentary returns then!!!

But til then let me remind you all of Illumina's 8th Law:

"The relation of the quality of the picture to the performance of the characters or games depicted therein is negligible at best."

The things noobs say...I tell ya!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Beaten by Z1m...may he revel in his Guru glory!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/10/2006 5:48:43 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: FFVII got more SFF against Xenogears than against MGS.
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/10/2006 5:50:32 PM | message detail
Fact. FF7/MGS SFF? Nonsensical.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 5:54:50 PM | message detail
Fact. FF7/MGS SFF? Nonsensical.

*sigh* So MGS is weaker than...

Halo, Wind Waker, Vice City, Kingdom Hearts, Soul Calibur, Metroid Prime, the original LoZ, the original FF, Half-Life...

...oh, and Metal Gear Solid 2.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/10/2006 5:56:13 PM | message detail
Lemme rephrase that....SFF that actually changes anything significantly? Nonsensical. Were just gonna go with some cooky FF7 factor and jump off a roof.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Draco1214 | Posted 8/10/2006 5:56:48 PM | message detail
If FF7 really SFF'd the crap out of Xenogears, then I wonder just how strong XG really is.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
Knux_D_Echidna | Posted 8/10/2006 5:58:42 PM | message detail
A lot of Metal Gear Solid fans happen to be Final Fantasy VII fans? Which happens to precede it and also happens to be THE reason why many people bought a Playstation in the first place? Blasphemy!
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 5:59:56 PM | message detail
I think it definitely did get SFFed, but the extent is *very* iffy to me...I mean, how would you expect Xenogears to do against something like, say, Half-Life?
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/10/2006 6:01:02 PM | message detail
A lot of Metal Gear Solid fans happen to be Final Fantasy VII fans? Which happens to precede it and also happens to be THE reason why many people bought a Playstation in the first place? Blasphemy!

So were gonna base SFF over something pretty minuscule?
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 6:04:53 PM | message detail
MGS losing to MGS2 55-45 is *not* miniscule.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/10/2006 6:04:54 PM | message detail
I'd consider taking Metal Gear Solid over something like Halo, Half-Life, and Soul Calibur.

As for Xenogears, I think it the potential to be a low-end/decent midcarder.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/10/2006 6:06:26 PM | message detail
I meant the reasoning in that statement, KH.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
BeTheMan | Posted 8/10/2006 6:06:56 PM | message detail
Honestly, after seeing the results of the series contest, I don't see anything special about the FF7/MGS match. In both contests, Metal Gear got whipped by something with a much larger fanbase, which is no different than what FF and Zelda do to everything else on this site.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 6:07:57 PM | message detail
MGS would flatten any one of those games I listed, excepting maybe the Zeldas. And I'm giving them the Nintendo boost there, in 2k4 I really don't think they pull it out. Don't let the series contest fool you, just comparing direct polls the original MGS actually has more playership than the entire series.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Knux_D_Echidna | Posted 8/10/2006 6:08:14 PM | message detail
Well seeing how strong Pokemon was against Metroid, there probably WAS a good bit of SFF. I don't see why Xenogears couldn't compete with Half-Life on THIS site, although I definitely don't think it is at the level that Half-Life is at in SpC2k4 (lol Starcraft). I'd put it to be stronger than Final Fantasy Tactics Advance though...
Knux_D_Echidna | Posted 8/10/2006 6:09:49 PM | message detail

So were gonna base SFF over something pretty minuscule?


Wait, are you one of those people that think that you can only be SFF'd if you come from the same company? Let me know that now before I respond...
Draco1214 | Posted 8/10/2006 6:10:40 PM | message detail
In both contests, Metal Gear got whipped by something with a much larger fanbase, which is no different than what FF and Zelda do to everything else on this site.

Despite getting whipped by Zelda, Metal Gear still wound up ranking in the top 10, which is more than you can say for Metal Gear Solid in the Games Contest.

Personally, I just think the fanbase prefers Metal Gear Solid to the other two games in the series and they're more likely to support it in a contest setting.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 6:11:35 PM | message detail
Everything got whipped by FF and Zelda except Mario, so Metal Gear is relatively very strong there, the only things above it are SSB and Sonic (and I'd take Metal Gear over Sonic). On the opposite side of the spectrum, MGS is under a LOT of things it shouldn't be under in 2k4.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/10/2006 6:11:42 PM | message detail
?Wait, are you one of those people that think that you can only be SFF'd if you come from the same company? Let me know that now before I respond...

Nope, but I am a guy who thinks calling SFF on damn near any wierd match is silly.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/10/2006 6:13:01 PM | message detail
MGS would flatten any one of those games I listed, excepting maybe the Zeldas. And I'm giving them the Nintendo boost there, in 2k4 I really don't think they pull it out. Don't let the series contest fool you, just comparing direct polls the original MGS actually has more playership than the entire series.

I do agree on all of this, but the fact still remains that FF(Particularly FF7 of course) and Zelda can blow out just about anything except for Mario and themselves.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
red sox 777 | Posted 8/10/2006 6:15:28 PM | message detail
Nope, but I am a guy who thinks calling SFF on damn near any wierd match is silly.

The thing is, there is significant fanbase overlap in every match involving FF7 or Zelda, although that would in most cases end up as part of its inherent strength. But the opportunity is there.

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Z1mZum easily beat me with his superior skills.
Nominate Magus and Crono!
Phediuk | Posted 8/10/2006 6:15:40 PM | message detail
FACT OR FICTION: If the 2k2 bracket was reused this year, the only match that would go the other way from SC2002 is Mario/Cloud.

I'm not quite sure about that one. Jill/Kirby is the only other match that I think has a good chance of going the other way.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/10/2006 6:18:26 PM | message detail
Fiction. Kirby > Jill and Bomberman.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 6:19:38 PM | message detail
Jill wouldn't come close to beating Kirby today. Kirby would flatten his fourpack and make it look like a joke. Gordon would probably beat Tina Armstorng today, too.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/10/2006 6:19:39 PM | message detail
But the opportunity is there.

I can live with that. I say you just gotta be a little skeptical thats all.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Knux_D_Echidna | Posted 8/10/2006 6:20:12 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Knux_D_Echidna | Posted 8/10/2006 6:20:56 PM | message detail
Meh, I keep forgetting that Aya didn't beat Donkey Kong! The moral victory is what counts!
BeTheMan | Posted 8/10/2006 6:21:03 PM | message detail
I think the reason MGS looks so out of place in the Sp2k4 X-Stats is the weirdness in the 128 Division. If you were to take the games you listed and stick them up against FF7, I don't think that any of them would crack 30%.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 6:22:29 PM | message detail
Aya didn't beat DK the first time! <_<

And I really can't believe people think MGS and GE wouldn't have ended up higher in the stats if they had been on different sides of the bracket (MGS going out to OoT, GE going out to FF7). I mean...c'mon, now. That kind of thinking is why the 2k4 stats are even more borked adjusted than unadjusted (HAY GUYZ LETS ONLY GIVE NINTENDO GAMES RANDOM BOOSTS BECAUSE ONLY NINTENDO SFF EXISTS LOL).
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/10/2006 6:25:45 PM | message detail
...Why did we make "adjusted" Games Contest stats anyway? I've yet to figure that one out.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Draco1214 | Posted 8/10/2006 6:27:26 PM | message detail
...Wait, there are adjusted Sp2k4 stats? On what were they adjusted on?
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
Knux_D_Echidna | Posted 8/10/2006 6:27:42 PM | message detail
Just because we knew that certain things were SFF'd (the obvious ones). People forget to read that the adjustments were totally arbitrary though.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/10/2006 6:28:26 PM | message detail
Bullcrap. You guys put the SFF tag on SMB3/LoZ.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Knux_D_Echidna | Posted 8/10/2006 6:30:45 PM | message detail
Eh? I forget that was even adjusted in the first place. I was talking about the ones that got 1.6x adjustments.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/10/2006 6:31:07 PM | message detail
On what were they adjusted on?

Nothing.

Well, except intuition anyway, and we've seen how much that's worth.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
BeTheMan | Posted 8/10/2006 6:31:55 PM | message detail
I'm still trying to figure out how Street Fighter II didn't get a boost after being behind two Square-on-Square matches...but maybe that's just me.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO Z1mZum FOR ROCKING THE GURU WORLD
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/10/2006 6:33:00 PM | message detail
I'm still trying to figure out how Street Fighter II didn't get a boost after being behind two Square-on-Square matches...but maybe that's just me.

BECAUSE MARIO RPG COULDN'T HAVE BEEN SFF'D! IT'S MORE NINTENDO THAN SQUARE!
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2006 7:31:05 PM | message detail
IT'S ALOT LIKE HOW SQUALL DIDN'T SFF GENO.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....