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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 344

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/8/2006 10:51:53 PM | message detail
If you're really going for how recognizable bowser is, come the **** on. If you don't know that, that is Bowser in the pic, then you don't know who the **** Bowser is.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 10:51:56 PM | message detail
Bowser's advantage wasn't anything like Solid's advantage over Sora or SF's advantage over RE pic-wise though...let Bowser get that better picture that more people know him for, and he very well could take it.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 10:55:12 PM | message detail
let Bowser get that better picture that more people know him for, and he very well could take it.

The fact that we're even debating the picture itself is bad enough, but saying Bowser getting a more iconic picture is going to put him over the top? He doesn't need one.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 10:56:33 PM | message detail
Bowser's SMB1-pic would fit in alot more with his stage though than just by itself; tell me he wouldn't fit in like that and not look ugly...but rather classic and fitting.

I'm not arguing that Bowser isn't recognizable, but when the favor is more on a certain subject, you're going to see more of a turn-out for it in its favor. Again, look at those two polls I showed -- DS/GBA and PSP ownership did much better in the polls asking about their handheld system than when asking about the other handheld system. With even more focus on Bowser -- it wouldn't have to be much more, especially since he already had alot of it -- Bowser could have snuck out with the victory.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/8/2006 10:59:13 PM | message detail
I can't believe this discussion is going on... then again it's 2 in the morning and my eyes are burning so badly they want to close. That or someone peed in them when I wasn't looking.

*goes to sleep*

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 10:59:53 PM | message detail
*zips*
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 11:00:50 PM | message detail
tell me he wouldn't fit in like that and not look ugly...but rather classic and fitting.

No, it's still ugly.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 11:08:50 PM | message detail
Lemme rephrase -- tell me people would care when they see SMB1-Bowser with his SMB1-level against Solid with his sprite.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 11:10:12 PM | message detail
No more than they already would. The background itself with Bowser had more of an effect than whatever picture you use of him.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/8/2006 11:13:19 PM | message detail
Give it up, Harrich. No picture is going to give Bowser the win.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 11:28:03 PM | message detail
I'm giving up getting people to believe me, but with the GBA/DS poll and that PSP poll taken side-by-side, the focus of the picture likely means more than we give it credit for.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 11:30:48 PM | message detail
Yeah, and the focus of the picture couldn't have been any more on Bowser than it already was. I don't care what else you put in its place. You've got Bowser's lair, Bowser himself, some...GI Joe lookin' dude and some random Engrish at the top. Yeah, that's all Bowser.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Lopen | Posted 8/8/2006 11:45:41 PM | message detail
What the people are saying, HaRRicH, is that there's a point when the picture advantage can be so high that still more picture advantage doesn't matter. I agree with that... but the debatable point is whether Bowser was at that ceiling or not. I'm not so sure about that... he was probably pretty close. But I think I agree with you... give Bowser a SMB3 sprite instead and he might win it. The vote margin was very close, Bowser might be able to squeeze another 800 votes outta there.
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/8/2006 11:50:20 PM | message detail
"Bowser might be able to squeeze another 800 votes outta there."

No, just no. Pic factor is a virtual non-factor, and even if you believe in that tripe I've still never heard of anyone saying that Solid **** isn't the ultimate unequalizer.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
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Lopen | Posted 8/8/2006 11:52:41 PM | message detail
And heck, looking at how well Frog... someone who Bowser would beat very easily... did the year before against Snake, I definitely wouldn't be shocked to see Bowser take that match with even as little as a SMB3 Sprite. Bowser was also pretty hideous in that picture. There's surely more pic advantage to be had.

I don't know why we're arguing this anyway... why are we making things even more unfair for Snake, here?
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Z1mZum whooped me so bad in the Guru Contest that the next Lopen wannabe is gonna feel it.
consolefreak | Posted 8/9/2006 2:27:43 AM | message detail
I think whatever represents the poll can make a difference if it's obviously showing favor to a particular subject (SF/RE comes to mind). Not so much do I think it works like that when it's just not doing a subject justice like Solid/Bowser, though if Bowser had a better picture he very well could have won.

The analogy between this and match pics is largely irrelevant, really. The poll asks different things. That's like comparing Cloud - Mario with Cloud - Link for proving match pic factor.

The 6.58% of People saying "'no, I'll stick with my PSP", are people with a PSP without a DS/GBA. In Poll 2169, no such question is asked, much less such a possible answer given. The 22% that said they have a PSP in that poll are people with a PSP that may or may not have a DS/GBA as well.

In poll 2168 I answered "Yes, a GBA", even if I have a PSP.

In poll 2169 I naturally aswered "yes" (with the latest firmware).

The poll doesn't "favour" a certain system, it just asks a different question.


Bowser might be able to squeeze another 800 votes outta there.

Probably. But making the match even more one-sided would be a pretty hard thing to do.

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Xuxon | Posted 8/9/2006 4:51:38 AM | message detail
You think Bowser would have won with this?

http://img117.imageshack.us/my.php?image=br58smb3lb2.jpg
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XIII_rocks | Posted 8/9/2006 6:07:36 AM | message detail
I'm going to take the middle ground. I don't think Bowser would /beat/ Snake with a better pic, but he'd certainly be closer. Maybe under 400-500 votes.

I also think if that match was run again, with the higher votals, Bowser would win. Or at least, make it closer. 20k more votes (can't remember the exact number the original got, so I'll be generous) = more people likely to be influenced by a craptacular match pic. Whether or not it makes Bowser beat Snake is another question entirely.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2006 9:03:04 AM | message detail
If Bowser wins in a rematch, it won't be because of more people being influenced by the picture factor. Remember, 2k5 was the beginning of the return to more 2k3-esque vote totals. 2k4, the year with the worst votals by far, also had Snake in his most pitiful showing ever, and by far the most pitiful showing by a Noble Niner. We're talking about a showing so pathetic that Zero cleanly outranked Snake against Mega Man. A percentage on BL so dismal that Knuckles 2k5 and Dante 2k5 are on par with it, while Bowser, Vincent, Squall, Kirby, Zelda, Ganondorf, and Tifa all easily outrank it. I've never assumed it to be a coincidence. Not only was 2004 a year that he bombed, but it's a year that he really should have boosted thanks to TTS. Yeah, people point out TTS's lackluster sales, but overall sales are not equal to GameFAQs exposure. Observing:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2179

8% of GameFAQs has been exposed to Metal Gear Solid solely through The Twin Snakes. 20% have played both, and there's 15% that have either played one or the other. Yet again, he not only did not benefit from it, but ended up dropping like a rock. Again, I'm not thinking this is a coincidence. Snake may bomb in the day, but his two best years are characterized by higher vote totals. I'm more inclined to say that in general, that will help him.

That's not to say Bowser couldn't win because of the newer crowd being more Nintendo-friendly, as that would essentially contribute to another 'boost' to put him over the top. As we have seen from these post-contest polls, the high votals really haven't died down that much, and we could certainly see some carryover, it's the reason why I think Bowser is going to solidify his position as the undisputed #10, and have n00bs over the board calling for a 'Terrific Ten' or whatever sorry alliteration the next guy can come up with.

The thing is, I don't think it'll matter. Snake in SSBB is still big, and he actually has been garnering fans from people who have never heard of him, from mass anticipation to people going out and playing his games just to see what he's like. To lift from mnm, "I don't think we'll have to wait for 2007 to see Snake make a move in popularity." And will it help him against the long-time Nintendo-established Bowser? Well, uh, it sure seems to help Samus.
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HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2006 10:27:12 AM | message detail
I think so, Xuxon. Bowser looks alot nicer than the fuzzy-bulldog look, and it's from SMB3 -- undoubtedly the most popular Mario game -- so it's hard to get any more favor to Bowser than that...and I think he could squeak by.

Lopen had what I was trying to say right, that the debate is now whether the ceiling was reached yet or not...but while there's no doubt Bowser had the high ground already in the picture, I'm just saying that it could have been worse, quite possibly to the point of costing Solid the match.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2006 10:38:10 AM | message detail
Bowser's SMB3 sprite may look marginally better, but to me his SMB1 sprite will always conjure up more nostalgia and happy memories. Bowser in SMB3 was basically just the guy at the end of the game, but in SMB1 you fought him at the end of every world (well, perhaps not in canon, but who really cares about that?). Even then I really can't see Bowser win that match...make it closer, maybe, but even in a worst-case scenario I think Snake would pull out any sort of true dead-even for the same reasons that Frog pulled out his dead-even against Chief.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/9/2006 11:08:15 AM | message detail
Yeah, the whole thing last night was whether or not Bowser had already reached his picture advantage ceiling, and while I say no to that (as I said before, it had Bowser beating the **** out of Snake, or something equally insane, I'd give him the advantage), but regardless of what other normal pic you give of him, including SMB3, I don't see it making any difference at all. There was no doubt about who the character there was, the background completely favored him, and if you aren't a die hard fan of MG you probably don't understand the quote above Snake, which kind of makes him look like a fool, if you don't already know what it means, and I'd be willing to bet that if you did, chances are you were already voting Snake anyway. I just can't see a slightly less blurry sprite of him making any difference at all.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/9/2006 11:08:41 AM | message detail
I don't like to discuss the picture as relevant at all, but HaRRicH is saying that with an even "better" Bowser picture, he could've gleaned MORE of an advantage than he already did...and yet, SSBM was even MORE stacked against FFX and he believes FFX couldn't have swung 750 votes in its favor with a balanced picture.

I see.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/9/2006 11:09:46 AM | message detail
I don't like to discuss the picture as relevant at all, but HaRRicH is saying that with an even "better" Bowser picture, he could've gleaned MORE of an advantage than he already did...and yet, SSBM was even MORE stacked against FFX and he believes FFX couldn't have swung 750 votes in its favor with a balanced picture.

If that's true I'd like to take this opportunity to laugh heartily in the direction of HaRRchin.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/9/2006 11:13:32 AM | message detail
There are a few people here who believe the picture matters who have said as much. I don't know if it's bias or whatever, but I'd like some consistency on the picture factor, at the very least.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/9/2006 11:17:42 AM | message detail
I think the picture matters in extreme cases (completely unrecognizable, one side making a joke of the other, and so on), otherwise it's pretty negligible. Anyway, I've never though the pic has ever accounted for a huge amount, but there's no doubt in my mind that it occurs.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/9/2006 11:18:00 AM | message detail
The reason why I remained so against FFX having such a disadvantage is because everyone in the SSBM pic was so small. However, now that I've seen those two polls again that I pointed out last night and that Tidus is indeed outnumbered by more popular characters -- even when they're tiny -- maybe FFX could have won afterall...

...in 2k4. Have their match today and I'm taking SSBM without a doubt, but that's just a side-note.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/9/2006 11:19:35 AM | message detail
because everyone in the SSBM pic was so small

And yet blurry bulldog Bowser gets an advantage?

It doesn't really matter if they're small or not. I can easily make out who each and every character on that picture is, and they're attacking a Tidus with a goofy smile.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/9/2006 11:19:45 AM | message detail
I definitely take SSB in a rematch today too, but a massive face of Tidus (not even arguably the strongest FFX character here) against the entire Nintendo cast is redonkulous. Especially when it looks like they're all about to own hin.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/9/2006 11:30:03 AM | message detail
Honestly, my fanboyism of Tidus is well-known, and I hate that picture of him. It's probably the worst one of him out there.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/9/2006 12:12:52 PM | message detail
because everyone in the SSBM pic was so small.

It was extremely easy to make out every character in that picture too. You can't talk about a different Bowser picture helping and then downplay the massive advantage SSBM had in that picture.

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FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/9/2006 12:22:51 PM | message detail
You know it's offseason in the stats topic when we're revisiting 2004 and discussing match pictures adamantly.


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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/9/2006 12:41:45 PM | message detail
Guys, some of you are nuts. There are Smash Bros. characters I almost never vote against, them being in the picture didn't stop me from voting FFX simply due to hating it less as a game. People KNOW what these matches are about, just look at this last contest we had, and they vote accordingly more often than not. A lot more often than not. The people influenced by that picture had to have been fence sitters to begin with, and they'd have to be torn between two games that are nothing alike and not even on the same system. And to boot, they also had to not be lured in by any other factors before and they'd have to do what we expect (believe that SSBM had the better pick) which we have no evidence of whatsoever. Besides, how would Tidus alone be better off against justLink, Mario and Samus?
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/9/2006 1:07:42 PM | message detail
From FastFalcon05 Posted 8/9/2006 3:22:51 PM #182
You know it's offseason in the stats topic when we're revisiting 2004 and discussing match pictures adamantly.

And claiming that 2004 had the worst vote totals. People forgot 2002 already?

~*ST*~
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Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2006 1:15:12 PM | message detail
2002 started off horribly, but had the nice distinction of getting more and more popular as the contest went on, plus it has better votals in the important matches. And of course, there was Mario/Cloud.

Compare to SpC2k4, where the highest scoring match barely broke 100,000 votes, and SC2k4 wasn't much better outside of Clink.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/9/2006 1:22:25 PM | message detail
Eh, my mistake, Halo/Starcraft was well over 100,000 votes (I didn't remember it being that popular, wow). But it was the ONLY match in the spring that broke 100,000.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2006 2:11:13 PM | message detail
Eh, my mistake, Halo/Starcraft was well over 100,000 votes (I didn't remember it being that popular, wow). But it was the ONLY match in the spring that broke 100,000.

*sigh*

*points at FFVII/SII*
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Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2006 2:12:34 PM | message detail
Also the only reason 2k2 vote totals went way up was because of all the linking near the end.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/9/2006 2:15:33 PM | message detail
Are you trying to say Sp2k4 didn't have massive linking? Looking at SC and Halo here, and wondering how that doesn't count just as much as PGC.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/9/2006 2:15:58 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2006 2:27:00 PM | message detail
Are you trying to say Sp2k4 didn't have massive linking? Looking at SC and Halo here, and wondering how that doesn't count just as much as PGC.

No, I'm just saying that 2k2 had massive linking after Scorpion/Pac-Man that it boosted its vote totals. PGC wasn't the only site that linked during the contest.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/9/2006 3:12:42 PM | message detail
because everyone in the SSBM pic was so small.

Eh? Catching up and all, but do you really need to see every individual character to get the full effect of the pic being SUPAH SMASH BROS. MELEEEEEEEEEEEE vs. Tidus?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/9/2006 4:05:00 PM | message detail
I think it's hilarious that fans of "pics don't matter" turn around and say that SSBM vs FFX was too unfair.

~*ST*~
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TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/9/2006 7:12:12 PM | message detail
Hellooooooo
FastFalcon05 | Posted 8/9/2006 7:40:50 PM | message detail
I think it's hilarious that fans of "pics don't matter" turn around and say that SSBM vs FFX was too unfair.

That isn't inconsistent. You can think pictures don't matter and still believe one side is portrayed as better than another. It just will have no effect.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 8/9/2006 7:42:30 PM | message detail
FFX/SSBM was unfairly one-sided, regardless of what you think of the picture.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2006 8:17:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
charmander6000 | Posted 8/9/2006 8:17:44 PM | message detail
Well that's the type of game SSBM is. It's about a bunch of characters from other games/series that came to do one thing, fight. The only way I see SSBM having an advantage over FFX is if a person who never played SSBM saw one of their favorite characters in the picture and because of it would vote it over FFX (which seems to be a bit of a stretch). I think SSBM is at a disadvantge when the picture with all of the characters isn't shown.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/9/2006 8:23:35 PM | message detail
I put it this way... If the picture makes enough of a difference to make us notice when we see it, it's not too farfetched to think that other people notice it as well. If I look at that SSBM/FFX pic and automatically think "Tidus is getting owned lol", I'm sure there are others who think the same thing. It may not be a HUGE amount of people, but still... we're not special here or anything.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/10/2006 12:08:21 AM | message detail
Eh? Catching up and all, but do you really need to see every individual character to get the full effect of the pic being SUPAH SMASH BROS. MELEEEEEEEEEEEE vs. Tidus?

Right, but do you really need to see the rest of the cast of FFX to get the idea that it's FFX? What other game do you know Tidus for being in (I know KH and FFX-2, but do you know him for being in those games? No one else does either; he's known for being in FFX)? Two can play that game.

Besides, Mario/Link/Pikachu/Bowser coupled with eye-shots of many more were shown against MGS2. Where's the complaining there? Samus/Link/Mario where shown prominently against Starcraft, and the only complaints from that match was cheating from rallying and vote-stuffing. Link, Princess Peach and Zelda, Fox, Roy, Samus, Yoshi, Kirby, Pikachu, DK, Ice Climbers, and Mario TWICE went against FF7...but nothing's said there. In the Series Contest, SSB had the same picture it had against FFX (except reversed) against DQ, and people loved the picture, then to add to it people have argued DQ doesn't have a shot against DMC although DQ is hot on its trails in the x-stats. Against Sonic, SSB beat it down unexpectedly...but SSB pictures weren't used, so ignore it if you like. Against SMB, SSB had bad characters represent it -- DK and Ness have both been SFF'd hard by Mario, then there was also Mr. Game And Watch and Ice Climbers...and it still managed to easily be the 4th strongest series in the contest in a likely-SFF'd performance...

...but what I'm saying is two things: SSB/M is damn strong anyway, and its picture will almost certainly always be in its favor. When its two worst pictures have been DK/Ness/Mr. Game And Watch/Ice Climbers against SMB (and still did great) and just Mario against GTA:VC (where it still had the pic-advantage), it's almost always going to favor SSB/M -- it's flat-out unavoidable. FFX could have had a better picture, granted, but the story Tidus and Yuna told are what FFX is about to my understanding (even if Auron is more liked than both of them), whereas every damn Nintendo character they could think off fighting is what SSBM is about...for the round, it would have been unfair unless it was Tidus AND Yuna or just Yuna, and for match-pics in general it's hard to not let SSBM outnumber and/or outdo you in it, even if I still think the picture is too small and blurry for people to distinguish each character quickly -- I believe you've said it yourself that each voter only looks at the pic for a split second...so if that's the case, they're going to get the gist of it being the SSBM cast well before they're going to get it's Mario/Kirby/Captain Falcon/...you know what I mean.


SSB/M's pic-advantage is almost always going to be accounted as part of its strength, simply because where has it had a bad picture yet? Even in SMB/SSB, while SMB had the better pic, its pic wasn't bad...just mismatched.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....