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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 344

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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/8/2006 6:01:45 PM | message detail
Pfft. Crono isn't losing to Sonic and Mega Man. He's beating Samus.

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The winner begins with Z1m and ends with Zum... This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now.
Master Moltar | Posted 8/8/2006 6:06:41 PM | message detail
Cute, HM.
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Moltar Status: Currently the property of the true Master, Z1mZum
Final July '06 Contest Score: 62 (Boo)
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/8/2006 6:07:44 PM | message detail
The truth can be cute!

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The winner begins with Z1m and ends with Zum... This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now.
red sox 777 | Posted 8/8/2006 6:16:37 PM | message detail
Unextrapolated X-stats:

5 Crono 36.54% 39.87% Flood 2 1
6 Mega Man 35.55% 38.79% 20XX 1 1
7 Sonic the Hedgehog 35.28% 38.50% Chaos 1 1
8 Solid Snake 33.88% 36.97% Gear 1 1

9 Bowser 33.49% 36.54% Dream 3 1
10 Vincent Valentine 32.60% 35.58% Devil 5 1
11 Squall Leonhart 32.22% 35.16% Devil 2 2
12 Kirby 32.06% 34.99% Dream 1 2
13 Samus 31.84% 34.74% Zebes 1 1

Looks good to me.

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Z1mZum easily beat me with his superior skills.
Nominate Magus and Crono!
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 6:19:14 PM | message detail
The match was so close, anyway.

Doesn't matter if Mega Man meets Sonic first because he won't win that rematch!

And whatever slight boosting/dropping advantage there is to be had has to go to Mega Man.

Yeah, because Crono has never boosted before, and Mega Man hasn't been consistent from year to year?

Wait.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
AmazingKirby | Posted 8/8/2006 6:19:17 PM | message detail
Unextrapolated extrapolated stats? o_O
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caps
red sox 777 | Posted 8/8/2006 6:20:30 PM | message detail
Unadjusted, rather.
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Z1mZum easily beat me with his superior skills.
Nominate Magus and Crono!
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/8/2006 6:23:00 PM | message detail
THINKER: Is Samus overrated?
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
THEJackSparrow | Posted 8/8/2006 6:24:07 PM | message detail
Not to the point where it matters (such as, losing to Crono/Mega Man/Sonic). Not that I wouldn't mind if she lost to any of those three.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/8/2006 6:30:00 PM | message detail
My unextrapolated x-stats

Knuckles 50.86
Sonic 49.63
Bowser 49.41


Sephiroth 45.06

The numbers don't lie!!!
red sox 777 | Posted 8/8/2006 6:30:04 PM | message detail
Yeah, Crono performed 6% better against the same opponent. Sure, there was SFF in Mario/Samus, but I really don't see how assuming 8% or so of SFF is more reasonable, than, say, 5%. Crono and Megaman could beat her, especially if Megaman could pull any Nintendo SFF on her.
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Z1mZum easily beat me with his superior skills.
Nominate Magus and Crono!
ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/8/2006 6:32:26 PM | message detail
Mega Man getting any sort of SFF is the only thing that makes me doubt taking Samus there, but then again, Link beat down Mega Man far worse than he beat down Samus.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/8/2006 6:32:31 PM | message detail
Yeah, Crono performed 6% better against the same opponent. Sure, there was SFF in Mario/Samus, but I really don't see how assuming 8% or so of SFF is more reasonable, than, say, 5%. Crono and Megaman could beat her, especially if Megaman could pull any Nintendo SFF on her.

Come on now. It's friggin' Mario! We've SEEN before how bad Nintendo SFF can get. Now everything that Samus has ever done in this contest is cancelled out by one bad match against Mario?
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/8/2006 6:33:55 PM | message detail
Mega Man getting any sort of SFF is the only thing that makes me doubt taking Samus there, but then again, Link beat down Mega Man far worse than he beat down Samus.

I know it's probably trivial, but I'm starting to wonder if WW Link played any part in Link not SFFing Samus as bad as she should have been in retrospect... <_<;
ILessThan3Tifa | Posted 8/8/2006 6:34:47 PM | message detail
Wind Waker Link gets blamed for far too much. You've seen that the game isn't as hated as people make it out to be.
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"As long as I'm with you...as long as you're by my side...I won't give up, even if I'm scared." - Tifa Lockheart
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/8/2006 7:02:36 PM | message detail
Wind Waker Link gets blamed for far too much. You've seen that the game isn't as hated as people make it out to be.

Who said Wind Waker was hated? It is one of my favorite overall games, so of course I know that. It still doesn't mean that people are big fans of Wind Waker Link's design. Nintendo even said itself that there was backlash about Wind Waker's style, and it is the main reason why they made Twilight Princess the way it is artistically. You can't tell me that Wind Waker Link wasn't a big deal among the general gamer population. People may not hate him, but they may not like him as much as Ocarina of Time Link's design. That certainly could be the difference in giving Samus a vote or not. Hell, combined with KH Cloud, even I gave Cloud the nod in that match due to that, and I'm one of the biggest LoZ fans around here.

Anyways, not trying to stir up old dirt....
ListenToMyStory | Posted 8/8/2006 7:06:16 PM | message detail
Meh, people have been trying to say Link beats Cloud with any other picture from the beginning, but I've never been one to agree with that theory.
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"Listen to my story. This...may be our last chance." - Tidus
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/8/2006 7:31:11 PM | message detail
Meh, people have been trying to say Link beats Cloud with any other picture from the beginning, but I've never been one to agree with that theory.

Well, you hardly agree with anything. I never saw why the extreme parallel between WW Link and KH Cloud couldn't have been enough to sway 5000 out of 140000 voters. You've even agreed (!!) to the point yourself that with Link and Cloud's huge popularity that there is undoubtedly an overlap between their fans.

Anyways, stirring up old mud. I'm not trying to go there.
SquallidSnake | Posted 8/8/2006 7:33:50 PM | message detail
You've even agreed (!!) to the point yourself that with Link and Cloud's huge popularity that there is undoubtedly an overlap between their fans.

Of course, but that has little to do with a picture.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
charmander6000 | Posted 8/8/2006 7:38:51 PM | message detail
The major problem of the x-stats are that it was design to rank the entrants based on performance of that year, but the voting pattern changes mostly because not everyone comes out to vote each year. If any contest was re held right after the same contest, but the entrants were in different positions I wouldn't expect too much of a change from the x-stats. The only reason the KHF was made was because many of the characters that gain were from KH (which was released between the contests), but that doesn't explain why other characters boosted (like Alucard). Before we called it the Nintendo Boost people were calling it the SSBMF because all of the characters were in that game.

How much do you think percentwise of people voted in one year will also vote in the next?
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/8/2006 7:39:51 PM | message detail
Of course, but that has little to do with a picture.

Again, in this particular situation it did have to do with the picture. If WW Link makes you like Link a little less, and KH Cloud makes you like Cloud a little more, why wouldn't it be enough to sway a vote from Link to Cloud among people who like both? It happened with myself and others on the board, so it's not like I'm pulling this from my ass.
SquallidSnake | Posted 8/8/2006 7:41:20 PM | message detail
It's still anecdotal evidence. Most voters see the picture for...maybe a split second before they vote. It makes a difference on the board because we get to see it long before the match begins.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
TheFreeshooter | Posted 8/8/2006 7:45:13 PM | message detail
It's still anecdotal evidence. Most voters see the picture for...maybe a split second before they vote. It makes a difference on the board because we get to see it long before the match begins.

Says you. We already have indication that WW Link was a big deal. Voters aren't robots... blah blah. This is a waste of time as you're never going to agree... so whatever. Have the last word!
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 7:46:59 PM | message detail
Putting this on me? I wasn't the one who brought it up.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 7:47:30 PM | message detail
Besides, it's not like you're any more likely to agree with me either.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Xuxon | Posted 8/8/2006 7:47:58 PM | message detail
A split second is plenty long enough to see an ugly, cartoony Link and a kick-ass Cloud. If anything, it makes less difference among board people, because they're more likely to already know who they want to win before the picture even goes up (the fanaticism here... yeah).

Sure the pic influences us in like, Madden or Milk Nukem, but only because they're first round fodder that we know can't possibly win.
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Take off every sig.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 7:50:03 PM | message detail
If anything, it makes less difference among board people, because they're more likely to already know who they want to win before the picture even goes up (the fanaticism here... yeah).

Yeah, and everyone complains about how much the picture sucks if it doesn't favor them because they think people are going to change their votes. And yet...very few of them end up changing their votes based on the picture itself. Meh.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Xuxon | Posted 8/8/2006 7:55:36 PM | message detail
I do think the "casual" people are influenced by the pic, though. The ones with the most cookie-cutter tastes are the most influenced; afterall, they like both Link and Cloud a lot to get them that far. I'm pretty sure OOT Link beats FF7 Cloud in 2003, around the same as the next 2 years.
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Take off every sig.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/8/2006 8:04:27 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure OOT Link beats FF7 Cloud in 2003

Joke post? Pictures don't matter that much, bud.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Xuxon | Posted 8/8/2006 8:09:55 PM | message detail
Joke post? Pictures don't matter that much, bud.

Feel free to prove me wrong, but until then I'll believe it. All those shaky Snake matches, Link miraculously "boosting" in 2004, RE vs SF... all of it points to pictures having an effect.
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Take off every sig.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 8:10:47 PM | message detail
All those shaky Snake matches, Link miraculously "boosting" in 2004, RE vs SF... all of it points to pictures having an effect.

Feel free to show me indisputable evidence that the picture was to blame.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Xuxon | Posted 8/8/2006 8:23:36 PM | message detail
Ok, maybe "prove" was a bad word, because it obviously can't be proven either way. I'm just sharing my thoughts and I don't care to have my opinion discarded so easily.
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Take off every sig.
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 9:49:08 PM | message detail
Got Game Boy Advance/DS?
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2168

Got PSP?
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2169


I think whatever represents the poll can make a difference if it's obviously showing favor to a particular subject (SF/RE comes to mind). Not so much do I think it works like that when it's just not doing a subject justice like Solid/Bowser, though if Bowser had a better picture he very well could have won.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/8/2006 10:25:29 PM | message detail
though if Bowser had a better picture he very well could have won.

If Snake had a better picture, he would have broke 55%.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/8/2006 10:27:20 PM | message detail
though if Bowser had a better picture he very well could have won.

Uhh....

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 10:32:32 PM | message detail
I know that Solid had a ****ty picture -- what I'm saying is that Bowser could have capitalized if he had a classic Bowser picture that everybody knows (say, a 3D one, and I'm not talking about SMRPG-3D). With a better picture, Solid could have helped himself out a lil' more, but Bowser already had the advantage of the classic background...Bowser had more room to swing voters than Solid.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
rpgapzx | Posted 8/8/2006 10:34:43 PM | message detail
I knew when I suggested SF/RE pic crappiness having an "effect" it would be the end of me. SF/RE is a distinct case, like Snake/Sora. You can't simply extrapolate into other matches.

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Poker is living proof that men are the irrational sex.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/8/2006 10:34:44 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/8/2006 10:34:47 PM | message detail
Even though the background advantage should have gone to Snake! lol ceej

Also, of course he could have capitalized more, but Snake would have capitalized even more from it being a 3D round.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 10:35:29 PM | message detail
say, a 3D one

Then that means Snake gets a MGS polygon, basically cancelling out Bowser's main advantage in the first place (unrecognizable Snake).
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/8/2006 10:35:52 PM | message detail
Actually... I don't know why I said "Of course he would have capitalized more" as he was completely recognizable and already looked 100 times better than Snake.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
greatone10 | Posted 8/8/2006 10:38:16 PM | message detail
Solid may have had his ugly NES sprite, but Bowser had a really ugly sprite that would have probably gotten a lot of complaints in any other match.

It just so happened his opponent had an even worse picture.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 10:39:10 PM | message detail
I didn't think Bowser's Mario & Luigi sprite was that bad (His Partners in Time sprite is more "classic" Bowser, however).
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/8/2006 10:40:37 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/albums/sc2k5/br58.jpg

Ugly? Maybe. Not that it really matters considering that he's actually recognizable. Plus with the background advantage (that going by the theme should have went to Snake), I don't think you can really ask for a more favorable pic advantage.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 10:44:54 PM | message detail
No, I'm not saying "let it be a different round"...I'm saying "let Bowser have a better pic while Solid still has his." When the focus is then on 3D-Bowser/SMB1-Bowser in Bowser's classic SMB1 fighting-stage against a generally-unrecognizable sprite of Solid Snake, and considering how close they were last time with that fuzzy-bulldog of a picture on top of the two polls I just showed, I think it's VERY realistic that Bowser would have won.

Unfair, yes, but we've seen afew pictures like that before.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
greatone10 | Posted 8/8/2006 10:45:22 PM | message detail
Maybe, but Bowser would not have had the picture advantage against anyone with a decent sprite. He looks like the Koopa equivalent of Quasimodo.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 10:46:30 PM | message detail
SMB1-Bowser

Actually, people blame that sprite for his crappy performance against Cloud.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/8/2006 10:48:25 PM | message detail
I disagree with a better pic for Bowser boosting him over the top. Unless he was mauling Solid ****s face off, or it seemed as though he was crapping him out, I don't think a better pic would have really benefitted him. As the advantage he already had over Snake was so huge that a better pic really wouldn't have changed anything.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
HaRRicH | Posted 8/8/2006 10:49:18 PM | message detail
Those same people are stretching, too, when 92.96% of GameFAQs have played SMB1 and over 80% of them played it on the NES, not to mention that SMB1 got #22 in the Top 100 List.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/8/2006 10:50:34 PM | message detail
Those same people are stretching, too, when 92.96% of GameFAQs have played SMB1 and over 80% of them played it on the NES, not to mention that SMB1 got #22 in the Top 100 List.

Just because it's recognizable doesn't make it any less ugly.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling