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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 344

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HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2006 12:06:03 PM | message detail
Just for what it's worth since I've not heard anybody mention it, but MGS3:S has been released since the last contest. I don't imagine it'd do much, but it's worth noting just as much as SSBB hype.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/15/2006 12:07:28 PM | message detail
This is true, but I do wonder what Subsistence will do for Snake, since it's basically Snake Eater with added features. Would MGO help Snake enough to put him over the top?

Heroic Mario, do you have any sales figures for Subsistence?
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
HaRRicH | Posted 8/15/2006 12:09:32 PM | message detail
I think Sonic would beat MM if they met again.

I think so too, though it's real hard to say.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2006 1:26:36 PM | message detail
IMO the Crono/Mega Man/Sonic group can go either way and Snake would have the outside chance against them as well. As for Samus, well I think the winner of the male part would give her a close match and might even upset.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 8/15/2006 1:36:03 PM | message detail
And people are worried this contest will suck. We might end up with a closer final than the series contest. And the male semifinals should be great, too.

As for me, I think Samus > Crono > Mega Man > Sonic > Snake.

I'm still iffy about SSBB's effects on Snake next year. I don't think it'll take him over Sonic/Mega Man/Crono, but rather give him enough of a boost so that he won't necessarily be in a close match with the likes of Bowser or Frog again.

<3~^\Pokemon > Metal Gear/^~<3
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Hello, sig.
Big Bob | Posted 8/15/2006 1:47:57 PM | message detail
I think Samus will win the tournament no matter what, and I'm gonna go with my gut and call Sonic to place above Crono, Snake, and Mega Man.
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Damned Z1mZum, beating me by one point. I'm gonna be pissed if Toadette makes 2k6 and Mewtwo doesn't.
Gomu gomu nooooooooo Pistol!
Phediuk | Posted 8/15/2006 2:08:51 PM | message detail
Dirge of Cerberus got 6.0 at GameSpot.

http://www.gamespot.com/ps2/action/dirgeofcerberusfinalfantasyvii/index.html

So much for that vastly superior American version.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/15/2006 2:19:05 PM | message detail
So much for that vastly superior American version.

Considering the Japanese version would have scored noticeably worse, it's safe to say that the American version IS superior. Doesn't necessarily mean it's good. Just better.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Tediz247 | Posted 8/15/2006 2:40:55 PM | message detail
6.0 is above average by every rating system I've seen >_>
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Guru status: Z1mZum'd.
ZSB [aX]
DeepHyren12 | Posted 8/15/2006 2:51:35 PM | message detail
You haven't seen many gaming magazines then. For the majority of them, 7.5 is around average and their true scale is 5-10, with anything under 5 being unplayable. EGM's the only magazine that I know that sticks to 5.0 being average.
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"Free flow of information is the only safeguard against tyranny"-- Commissioner Pravin Lal
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2006 3:12:13 PM | message detail
You haven't seen many gaming magazines then. For the majority of them, 7.5 is around average and their true scale is 5-10, with anything under 5 being unplayable. EGM's the only magazine that I know that sticks to 5.0 being average.

5.0 is average for most. The thing is, there are thousands of games out there that are so poor they don't get reviewed, and we never hear about them. Those are the games below 5.0. Average games are not worth playing, because average games suck.

Another question for HM: how well did FFIVA do?
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.
CountCrazy007 | Posted 8/15/2006 3:23:22 PM | message detail
"Average games are not worth playing, because average games suck."

Ironic.
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4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/15/2006 3:25:21 PM | message detail
I think I'm gonna be tempted to take Mega Man to beat Crono this year, assuming the 32/32 split. With the awesomely awesome votals, I can't help but think it'll hurt Crono and benefit the more recognizable characters. Granted, I wouldn't have ever thought Crono would be strong in the first place, so I could be totally wrong with the higher votals hurting him.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2006 3:27:16 PM | message detail
"Average games are not worth playing, because average games suck."

Ironic.


Is it? Let's try this with something else...

"Average electric cars are not worth driving, because average electric cars suck."

Oh noes, average things suck. How horrible.
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.
Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2006 3:44:22 PM | message detail
Ever since before SC2K2 I've wanted to see the ultimate Samus Aran vs. Mega Man showdown...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
Yesmar | Posted 8/15/2006 3:54:37 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if Crono dropped this year.

Personally, I suspect that Crono overperformed a bit in 2003 due to getting a sprite pic, meaning that he probably dropped in popularity between 2002 and 2003.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
MnMZero | Posted 8/15/2006 4:35:58 PM | message detail
I can't help but think it'll hurt Crono and benefit the more recognizable characters.

Crono isn't recognizable?
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
swirIdude | Posted 8/15/2006 4:36:44 PM | message detail
Crono isn't recognizable?

Of course he is recognizable! He's that guy from Dragonball Z!
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After the Series Contest, Z1mZum is now the guy I want to be like!
MnMZero | Posted 8/15/2006 4:39:48 PM | message detail
To further clarify on that statement, if there was no Kingdom Hearts, Advent Children, etc., would people be calling for Cloud, Sephiroth, Squall, and the rest of the Final Fantasy crew to drop from year to year? Granted Chrono Trigger isn't as big as FFVII on this site, but it still is big. Unless we get a huge voter shift on this site and the current site demographic just disappears, I don't see Crono weakening much...
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/15/2006 4:59:58 PM | message detail
Samus/Mega Man and Mega Man/Sonic are the only two real NN matches of debate for me right now (though I'll likely take Sonic over Crono out of bias should they meet). Every single day I feel better and better about Mega Man > Samus, too. I'm thinking he wins with ease.

And just to clarify, I'm not doubting Samus' strength (to the point to where it matters, at least). I still have Samus > Crono and Crono > Mega Man.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2006 5:04:06 PM | message detail
To further clarify on that statement, if there was no Kingdom Hearts, Advent Children, etc., would people be calling for Cloud, Sephiroth, Squall, and the rest of the Final Fantasy crew to drop from year to year?

*drools at thought of Samus > Cloud*
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2006 5:05:14 PM | message detail
FACT or FICTION: Mega Man gets more SFF on Samus than he did on Zero.
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/15/2006 5:05:47 PM | message detail
He'd have to, since he's going to win. =D
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/15/2006 5:08:14 PM | message detail
So, uh...why would he get more SFF on Samus than Zero?

Fun Fact: Samus unadjusted in 2k5 has EXACTLY the same percentage in the stats as unadjusted Mega Man 2k4.
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.
WilhuffTarkin | Posted 8/15/2006 5:08:55 PM | message detail
He'd have to, since he's going to win. =D

*cheers*
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Evacuate? In our moment of triumph? I think you overestimate their chances.
Karma Hunter | Posted 8/15/2006 5:09:15 PM | message detail
So, uh...why would he get more SFF on Samus than Zero?

The same reason why he got more SFF on Yoshi than Zero.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/15/2006 6:22:16 PM | message detail
Crono isn't recognizable?

You know exactly what I'm talking about. If you go around on the street and show a picture of him and ask people "Who is this?" they'll look at you funny and shrug. If you do the same with Mega Man or Sonic you'll get a much better response. Sure these aren't random people, but rather gamers, but before I came here I'll be damned if I knew what CT was, and I know there are a lot of other people in the same boat as me.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/15/2006 6:24:52 PM | message detail
Also, trying to put FF8 and the like on the level of Chrono Trigger in terms of casual gamers is just insane.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
MnMZero | Posted 8/15/2006 6:45:09 PM | message detail
You know exactly what I'm talking about. If you go around on the street and show a picture of him and ask people "Who is this?" they'll look at you funny and shrug. If you do the same with Mega Man or Sonic you'll get a much better response. Sure these aren't random people, but rather gamers, but before I came here I'll be damned if I knew what CT was, and I know there are a lot of other people in the same boat as me.

But they would be able to recognize any FF character easily?
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/15/2006 6:46:19 PM | message detail
Are you seriously trying to put CT on the level of 3D FF games? If so, then do what you will, but that's just crazy.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
MnMZero | Posted 8/15/2006 7:10:00 PM | message detail
Ummmm, last I checked, on this site Chrono Trigger was the number 3 game...
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 8/15/2006 7:12:42 PM | message detail
...

I think it's pretty evident I was talking about the increased votals hurting CT as it is a lot less recognizable than most of the other popular things around here.

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Explicit Content I have been thoroughly owned by Z1mZum. Cheer me up.
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2006 7:56:44 PM | message detail
Also, the year Crono gained the most was the year that vote totals dropped a lot(between 2K3 and 2K4). I have to note that. Between other years there's no good evidence of Crono increasing by more than a miniscule amount. We're about to see vote totals that surpass that of 2K3.

Of course, there's another factor that I feel is bigger than people give credit for, which may keep Crono afloat, or perhaps still allow him to grow in strength: contest experience. If somebody experiences contest success, I feel that they might gain a little more support next time around by the voters. That might be partially why the Noble Nine as a whole has been distancing themselves from the rest of the pack. But, it's just a theory with next to no evidence for.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
greatone10 | Posted 8/15/2006 8:07:03 PM | message detail
Many suggestions that Crono's success in the contests have inspired people to emulate Chrono Trigger. Granted, I can only see a miniscule amount actually doing that, but with Crono-Mega-Sonic very close together, a factor like that can matter.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 8/15/2006 8:11:12 PM | message detail
Of course, there's another factor that I feel is bigger than people give credit for, which may keep Crono afloat, or perhaps still allow him to grow in strength: contest experience. If somebody experiences contest success, I feel that they might gain a little more support next time around by the voters. That might be partially why the Noble Nine as a whole has been distancing themselves from the rest of the pack. But, it's just a theory with next to no evidence for.

Go to lol x-stats and do a match-up with any of the 20 characters from 2k2 against 2k5 versions of themselves. In all (except for the ones in the West Division) of them they end up beating their former selves (getting anywhere from 56%-51%). Though I guess most of them could be explained by the votershift.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Congratulations to Z1mZum for winning the Guru Contest
longbladeofhiko | Posted 8/15/2006 8:29:24 PM | message detail
hay guys
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend And Tag Champ Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 8/15/2006 8:33:37 PM | message detail
well, vote totals went up from 2K4 to 2K5, and taking Mega Man's adjusted value (if he was possibly SFF'd by Link or whatever.) against what Crono did on Link and you pretty much have the match nearly pin-pointed. not that this means much but Crono doesn't drop when the vote totals get higher. I'm not saying Crono > all males is 100%, because I'm very sure it can still be up in the air for these guys.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198 | Z1mZum owned me
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/15/2006 8:36:26 PM | message detail
I think this whole idea of Crono dropping because of higher vote totals is ridiculous. Mario/Crono II got over 130,000 votes, and it took everything Mario had (and maybe some stuff he didn't legitimately have) to win that match. And now somebody is going to blame the picture to justify it? Gimme a break. Guess what year Magus looked like a Noble Nine breaker? The year where we had the highest vote totals. Of course, we're going to blame a picture for that because that is the ONLY reason ANY sort of anomaly outside of SFF EVER occurs, so I suppose I shouldn't say anything.

Crono will have no problems whatsoever getting votes just because vote totals are higher. Crono got almost exactly 80000 votes against Kefka in 2003, SFF or not (hey, and he doesn't get SFF against FFVI if FF fans don't play Chrono Trigger!). How many times have we seen an entrant get 80,000 votes and lose?

Take a wild guess. Suffice it to say, Crono has more than enough recognition to handle upped vote totals.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/15/2006 8:40:12 PM | message detail
Oh, and by the way, the logic behind Magus and Frog overperforming isn't solely because they had sprites. It's also because their opponent had a hideous/unrecognizable picture. SMB1 Mario is neither.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
MnMZero | Posted 8/15/2006 8:48:08 PM | message detail
Oh, and by the way, the logic behind Magus and Frog overperforming isn't solely because they had sprites. It's also because their opponent had a hideous/unrecognizable picture. SMB1 Mario is neither.

Hey, you've never seen me agree with the whole "Chrono Trigger characters overperform with sprites" argument. With as photogenic as the Toriyama art is for them, it doesn't matter what representation they get. They always look good. I'd put bandwagoning or Bible Link on Magus's overperformance before I blame him getting a sprite. Same with Frog (combination of bandwagoning and Solid ****).

Crono had no such instances with Mario...
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
Master Moltar | Posted 8/15/2006 8:48:19 PM | message detail
You also have to remember that 2003 also was the year that the higher vote totals favored Square characters. Now the increased vote totals are favoring Nintendo, so I wouldn't say Crono is safe yet.

Still, I don't see Crono losing to Mega Man or Sonic (or Snake) one year later. Perhaps the gap will get a little closer though.
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Moltar Status: Currently the property of the true Master, Z1mZum
Final July '06 Contest Score: 62 (Boo)
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/15/2006 8:49:26 PM | message detail
All I'm saying is that if Crono loses to anyone who he would've beaten last year, it won't be due to higher vote totals. He's more than capable of handling that.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Yesmar | Posted 8/15/2006 9:08:25 PM | message detail
Oh, and by the way, the logic behind Magus and Frog overperforming isn't solely because they had sprites. It's also because their opponent had a hideous/unrecognizable picture. SMB1 Mario is neither.

I wouldn't call Link's sprite ugly, and while it's nowhere near the level of SMB1 Mario, I would say it's very recognizable.

I would think part of Frog's overperformance on Snake was due to Solid ****, but he did overperform a lot more than Bowser did, so that has to come from somewhere.

Hey, you've never seen me agree with the whole "Chrono Trigger characters overperform with sprites" argument. With as photogenic as the Toriyama art is for them, it doesn't matter what representation they get. They always look good. I'd put bandwagoning or Bible Link on Magus's overperformance before I blame him getting a sprite. Same with Frog (combination of bandwagoning and Solid ****).

Crono had no such instances with Mario...


It wasn't huge or anything but Crono did have a sizable bandwagon against Mario. He was definitely who the board was rooting for. In 2004, it was even bigger.

I would just like to state for the record that I don't think any Crono decrease between 2002 and 2003 or any future decrease comes from higher votals. I just think that one more year without any game release is bound to hurt Crono sooner or later; I do think that he is able to handle higher votals.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/15/2006 9:15:09 PM | message detail
If it hasn't hurt Crono after 11 years, why is it going to start bothering him out of nowhere? Besides, it hasn't really been 11 years, since CT was re-released 4-5 years ago on the PSX anyway, and the game is very emulator-friendly, it seems. Plus, it will likely be on the Wii's Virtual Console.

If he gets beaten, it'll be because he got passed up, not because he dropped.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/15/2006 9:35:54 PM | message detail
Crono isn't going anywhere. You don't become the #3 game on the site for nothing, and CT managed to pull that AFTER the voter shift. And let's be honest, vote totals are not that likely to maintain their levels from the last contest. These matches aren't going to be held during the summer and another character contest isn't nearly as exciting as a series battle because it's been done before, several times. Interest will wane a bit, vote totals will be normal, CT is still the third most popular game on the site. The End.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Haste_2 | Posted 8/15/2006 10:37:55 PM | message detail
Oh, and by the way, the logic behind Magus and Frog overperforming isn't solely because they had sprites. It's also because their opponent had a hideous/unrecognizable picture. SMB1 Mario is neither.

Add to that hype (maybe), and, in Frog's case, winning two incredibly close matches.

Remember how Ryu fell in popularity in 2K5 after maintaining himself between 2K2 and 2K4...anything could happen. Though I'm more arguing for the mere POSSIBILITY that Crono could fall a percent or two rather than I THINK he will...I tend to argue a lot in favor of ideas I don't really believe, but I just want to give things a chance...=p But, I shouldn't have ever said anything about vote totals in the first place, because even if Crono did drop, most of you wouldn't blame it on that.

It's ultimately the change in voters and new games that change a character's popularity, and the new voters who, say, wouldn't favor CT or something as much, could pop in almost as easily if the vote totals stayed the same as if the vote totals increased...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, Z1mZum drinks punch and eats CAKE! ..I think."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/15/2006 10:42:33 PM | message detail
Nominations close Thursday? How awesome.

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The winner begins with Z1m and ends with Zum... This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now.
Redtooth | Posted 8/15/2006 10:55:28 PM | message detail
So, if Crono can manage to be so powerful with only one old game, what would happen to his popularity if a new game featuring him came out? Or even if he somehow ended up in SSBB? Would something like that make him skyrocket into competition with Link and Cloud? I mean, on the exterior he fits together perfectly with those two...He just needs a small popularity boost to catch up...

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
bretnsid | Posted 8/15/2006 10:57:52 PM | message detail
yoyoma
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Metal Gear Solid 4 : Guns of the Patriots! (4/15/06)
War has changed...
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/15/2006 11:00:19 PM | message detail
So, if Crono can manage to be so powerful with only one old game, what would happen to his popularity if a new game featuring him came out? Or even if he somehow ended up in SSBB? Would something like that make him skyrocket into competition with Link and Cloud? I mean, on the exterior he fits together perfectly with those two...He just needs a small popularity boost to catch up...

I'm actually not entirely sure at all, but maybe he'll increase a lot or maybe he won't, who knows kinda, ya know?
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.