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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 343

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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:10:12 AM | message detail
"especially the Mario characters who just had NSMB."

Mario isn't eligible, and I've already discussed Bowser. Luigi is not going to one-up Kirby all that easily. And that's it, there's no one else from NSMB that'd be in contention for that slot. Like I said, there's really no one to steal his thunder.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/7/2006 12:10:56 AM | message detail
There is no way Barret should make a contest before Red or Cid.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
Draco1214 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:11:14 AM | message detail
I think we'll be seeing Red XIII or Cid in a contest before seeing Barret.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/7/2006 12:13:53 AM | message detail
I'm a little wary about Yuffie's chances of making the contest, even with nominations split like that. Sure, I can see the FFVII fans rallying behind the big two females, but I don't know if they'll support a third, especially if they're already nominating Vincent/Cid/Red XIII/Barret for the males. Before last year, we'd never even seen more than three FFVII characters in one bracket.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:15:18 AM | message detail
Hey, there's no way a lot of things should happen in these contests, they still do. The more prominent your role the more people remember you and the more peopel that remember you the more that like you. entering the game sooner gives Barret a leg up on Red 13 for that, at least. Cid is a slightly special case (since he leads your party for awhile), but even he would prolly get the shaft. Of course, post AC I would find it just as likely that Reno makes the contest, so whatever.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:19:18 AM | message detail
"I'm a little wary about Yuffie's chances of making the contest, even with nominations split like that."

I dare you to find 32 females you think would make the field first. I'll wait.

"Before last year, we'd never even seen more than three FFVII characters in one bracket."

Before this year we've never seen Yuffie not contend with the more beloved Cloud, Sephiroth and Vincent. Her biggest competition from the game is removed by merit of the split system.

Besides that, hasn't it occured to you yet that there are probably only about 16 females that'd ever make a normal contest anyway? If only half the slots are filled with characters that are normally popular enough we need to find another 16 that aren't. I'll be damned if the most popular of the not-popular-enough isn't Yuffie.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:22:16 AM | message detail
And since I've issued the challenge, my 32 in pretty much no particular order (started out somewhat based on strength, then broke down to "have to make the field because they're popular enough with this many slots" and finally collapsed into "god, I hope no one gets in with a mere 24 nominations from the board and none elsewhere"):

Samus
Tifa
Zelda
Aeris
Peach
Yuna
Rikku
Chun-li
Lyndis
Carmen Sandiego
The Boss
Celes Chere
KOS-MOS
Jill
Yuffie
Joanna Dark
Rinoa
Krystal
Amy Rose
Quistis
Terra
Garnet
Sheena
Tron
Kairi
Morrigan
Meryl Silverburgh
Dixie Kong
Rydia
Lennet
Toadette
Lulu
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:23:41 AM | message detail
And that should totally be "Lenneth" above Toadette. the "h" got lost on the way to the party.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/7/2006 12:26:42 AM | message detail
I dare you to find 32 females you think would make the field first. I'll wait.

There are plenty of females who could make this contest without Yuffie getting in. Basically, all I have to do is name the 31 females who should be getting in plus one more that isn't Yuffie. She still has to contend with Tifa and Aeris, and for her, that's the equivalent of contending with Cloud and Sephiroth in this format.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:29:28 AM | message detail
Weird thought: Vincent loses to Bowser in Round 1 while Kerrigan beats Toadette. >_>
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:31:43 AM | message detail
"Basically, all I have to do is name the 31 females who should be getting in plus one more that isn't Yuffie."

I did the work for ya, do you believe the 31 others I named are ALL going to get more noms than Yuffie? Supposing I missed someone, I'd actually be happy to hear about it, as I racked my brains to come up with that list as-is. Half of them I though "no way does this PoS make the field" and added them anyway because I couldn't honestly think of anyone better. The only possible misses I can think of are Claire or somehow another CT female. Anyone else just ssems like a long shot, and none of them outweigh Yuffie.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:33:27 AM | message detail
I'd definitely expect to see Yuffie make it if we really are going with 32 females.
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:34:24 AM | message detail
I thnk it's crazy to doubt it if there are 32 females. I sincerely doubt anyone can name 32 females that would get more nominations than Yuffie under the circumstances that they HONESTLY beleived would get more nominations.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Draco1214 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:36:06 AM | message detail
I wouldn't be surprised if Yuffie failed to make the female bracket. That said, I'm still expecting to see her in it.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:36:59 AM | message detail
More than doubt it, I'd be pretty upset if it didn't happen. We need all the strength we can get on the female side. At least Yuffie has match-winning potential.
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/7/2006 12:37:56 AM | message detail
All I'm saying is that Yuffie isn't a lock. If you had told me last year that Jin Kazama was going to make the field and Shadow the Hedgehog wasn't, I would've said you're crazy. These things happen.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 12:42:39 AM | message detail
Ahh, yes, 2005. The year things worked right. I finally got the last match of a contest right (though some may not call it the finals...), Vincent made the field and a lot of stupid characters that weren't worth the space left. Bye Shadow, I won't miss you, and please don;t come back to my contest ever again.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:45:34 AM | message detail
>_>
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
Draco1214 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:52:37 AM | message detail
Hmmm...I wonder if Lenneth Valkyrie has match winning potential now that the PSP remake is out. Granted, she'll still be fodder, but in the female bracket, could she pull out a win?
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Owned by Z1mZum in the Best. Series. Ever. Guru Contest
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/7/2006 12:54:46 AM | message detail
With Toadette looming, anything is possible. Actually, considering I have no idea just how many people even know about Lenneth Valkyrie, could Toadette pull it off?!?!??
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 1:03:30 AM | message detail
I think Toadette beats Lenneth. Lenneth is going to be very weak if she somehow sneaks in. easily in the bottom 10 of all time.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
LeonhartForever | Posted 8/7/2006 1:05:04 AM | message detail
Lenneth will be really, really weak. There are very few people I could see her beating, even in a field of 32 females.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
YoAriel33 | Posted 8/7/2006 1:05:33 AM | message detail
I certainly had no idea who she was. Of course, I had no idea who Sephiroth was until SC2K2.
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
Nominate_Tails | Posted 8/7/2006 1:40:13 AM | message detail
I thinl Lenneth could win, I've never played Legend of Dragoon tough, but at least she looks cool. Who would vote for Toadette over any cool looking character?
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Nominate Tails Here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php Z1mZum > me
LordOfDabu | Posted 8/7/2006 1:43:06 AM | message detail
What does Legend of Dragoon have to do with Lenneth Valkyrie?
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Nominate_Tails | Posted 8/7/2006 1:48:19 AM | message detail
Whoops I thought that was the game she was in >_>

But now I remember that it was Valkyrie Profile :P

Lucky me that I didn't nominate her and wasted a nomination spot >_>
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Nominate Tails Here: http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php Z1mZum > me
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 8/7/2006 1:52:05 AM | message detail
That's different, yo. FF7 sold a little more than the paltry 50k gained by VP. Without the rerelease I'd expect her to get doubled by Yuri or tripled by Luca (not sure how far those two results are, but slap her somewhere in there.
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Z1mzum kicked my ass in the guru contest, so now I have to kiss his ass.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
Gooper Blooper | Posted 8/7/2006 3:54:53 AM | message detail
Nominate Jigglypuff. >.>

I wonder if Jiggly could avoid getting claused like Nidoran. I mean, she's playable in Smash.
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Back in my day, video games had one degree of movement, uphill, through the snow, both ways, and we liked it. - CJayC
Mac Arrowny | Posted 8/7/2006 4:34:27 AM | message detail
Meh, this Lenneth hate is annoying. If she gets in, she'll at the very least be stronger than Luca Blight, thanks to the PSP port. The original sold 73K, which I believe is more than Suikoden 2 sold, and she's the main character rather than the villain, which is certainly an advantage.
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Pity for the Gurus is treason to Z1mZum.
consolefreak | Posted 8/7/2006 4:43:06 AM | message detail
Replacing a blowout match with a slightly more interesting blowout match doesn't increase the number of boring blowout matches.

The problem is that rallys for characters like Jay Solano don't necessarily cause this exact situation to happen. I'm sure no one would mind Jay Solano taking a spot over Yuri, Jin or Manny.

But you don't know that the 4 8-seeds are in fact the 4 least-nominated characters. Cjay has admitted to tweaking the seeds, however he does stick to the 32 most nominated characters.

When Jay Solano takes the place of someone like Knuckles or Vincent you do create more blowout matches, and more boring matches.
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Nominate Vincent Valentine for the character battle!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/7/2006 7:32:59 AM | message detail
The original sold 73K, which I believe is more than Suikoden 2 sold

92k for S2.

~*ST*~
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PWNED BY Z1mZum in the Guru Contest! Congrats!
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), Fire Emblem 8
Ciaran87 | Posted 8/7/2006 7:38:00 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Phediuk | Posted 8/7/2006 7:46:32 AM | message detail
Hey, it looks like Panzer Dragoon Saga sold more than 6,000 copies after all:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzer_Dragoon_Saga

Panzer Dragoon Saga was received with apparently unanimous praise from international gaming publications, citing its sophisticated art direction, vivid and unusual story and its cinematic, fluid battle system as particularly noteworthy. However, the game, coming late in the Sega Saturn’s life, was released in very low quantities in the US and Europe. Only 6,000 copies were first produced for the game’s American launch in May 1998, and many retailers failed to meet pre-order demand. Sega released a second batch of 12,000 copies the following June and then another 12,000 in the late Summer.

30,000 US sales total, which is a little more than Phoenix Wright has currently sold. However, PDS is still the lowest-selling game in the Sp2004 bracket.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/7/2006 8:24:45 AM | message detail
All of those matches listed earlier (Vincent v. Bowser/Kirby/Master Chief) would have me choosing Vincent with complete confidence in each one. He has far too much in his favor to lose any of them, I think.

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The winner begins with Z1m and ends with Zum... This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now.
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/7/2006 8:28:43 AM | message detail
I'm not so sure. Bowser has NSMB. It might not give him a massive boost, but I think he might get a semi-decent one. Dirge of Cerebrus isn't being received that well from what I've read, so VV might not get huge amounts of exposure due to that.
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Big Bob | Posted 8/7/2006 8:29:41 AM | message detail
...Now I want to see Kirby/Master Chief just for the pure hilarity of it.
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Damned Z1mZum, beating me by one point. I'm gonna be pissed if Toadette makes 2k6 and Mewtwo doesn't.
Gomu gomu nooooooooo Pistol!
Kaxon | Posted 8/7/2006 8:35:17 AM | message detail
... Uh, there is nothing fun about Jay Solano getting in the contest, buddy.

Obviously, the 150+ people who signed up to nominate Jay disagree with you.

90%+ blowouts are entertaining...for about 15 minutes. Once we get over the "Wow" part of it, it's hopelessly boring.

That's 15 more minutes of entertainment than a 70/30 match provides. If Ceej is going to go around arbitrarily eliminating weak characters, he should take out the ones who've already bombed hardcore (people like Ryo and Guybrush). There's plenty of room to have a good bracket AND Jay, if Ceej used his powers for good instead of evil.

I really do think CATS could beat Gordon Freeman. The reasoning is simple... "do I think Ansem would have any trouble taking GF out? Nope, I don't. I'd have Ansem winning by at least as much as Max Payne did.

Personally, I have a hard time imagining Ansem beating Gordon. But I might still take CATS over Gordon out of favoritism and GFNW.
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Z1mZum is the latest guru to destroy me in the Guru Contest. Congrats!
Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
Tediz247 | Posted 8/7/2006 8:38:05 AM | message detail
If not being received well actually means something, explain how Dante got a boost from DMC2. DoC will shoot Vincent through the roof, if only because it's FFVII.
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Guru status: Z1mZum'd.
ZSB [aX]
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/7/2006 8:40:39 AM | message detail
*finally gets round to looking at the pics I missed*

...They were all excellent. I especially like the theme used in the Semis, the "then and now" theme. Superb job by Cjay there.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/7/2006 8:42:14 AM | message detail
I'm not so sure. Bowser has NSMB. It might not give him a massive boost, but I think he might get a semi-decent one. Dirge of Cerebrus isn't being received that well from what I've read, so VV might not get huge amounts of exposure due to that.

... Are you kidding me? Did you really just try to tell me Vincent isn't going to get much exposure from a game starring him? That's about the dumbest thing I've heard.

Dirge of Cerberus not being this amazing game that critics go crazy over has nothing to do with the exposure nor the sales of the game. The Japanese version -- much inferior to the American version -- got horrible reviews and it still sold some 500,000 copies over there. Bowser is not going to get a thing from NSMB. I do not know how Bowser could have changed pre-existing people's opinions of him, how he could have gained new fans, or ... anything. NSMB wasn't that big of a deal here either. You're asking for far too much from it or underestimating the hell out of DoC if you think that'll keep Bowser ahead.

Vincent has in his favor the full release of Advent Children in America (1.2 million copies sold in America one month after its release), any potential Square fan influx from Kingdom Hearts II, and Dirge of Cerberus coming out August 15th, which is right before the contest. It clearly won that recent August poll, it's already back in the Top 10 FAQs, and it gets Vincent's face and name plastered everywhere. It doesn't just have to make him new fans either. People who already know him can actually like him more from the game. He wasn't given much attention from FFVII, but now he's getting a fully fleshed out backstory, much added to his character, and he's the only one you play as.

All of that together should get him a very nice boost. Bowser wins with 51.32% against Vincent as it is now. I really don't see how you can take Bowser in that match and feel more confident about it.

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The winner begins with Z1m and ends with Zum... This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now.
voltch | Posted 8/7/2006 9:49:57 AM | message detail
why are people assuming a Vincent/bowser encounter?
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever conest.
Who Cares? | Posted 8/7/2006 10:00:25 AM | message detail
^
Why not? It's a fun match to talk about!
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Noms: Ken, Nightmare, Sub Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden(MGS), Knuckles, Sora
Chun-Li, Morrigan, Sheena, Cammy, Presea, Talim, Ayane
XIII_rocks | Posted 8/7/2006 10:06:17 AM | message detail
... Are you kidding me? Did you really just try to tell me Vincent isn't going to get much exposure from a game starring him? That's about the dumbest thing I've heard.

The worse a game is, the smaller the boost you're going to get, pretty much. I considered using Shadow the Hedgehog as an example, but I can't remember when that was released. I didn't consider AC and KHII when I gave that answer, though, which was stupid >_>. You're right, Vincent would definitely be the favourite because of those two things. I just don't think Dirge alone will help him a great deal.
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Tediz247 | Posted 8/7/2006 10:34:27 AM | message detail
XIII, FFX-2 managed to give Yuna a boost and got Rikku into the contest. DMC2 managed to give Dante a boost. The American version of DoC is looking to be much, much better than the Japanese version. Even if it isn't, it will sell based solely on the words "Final Fantasy VII" in the title. Saying it won't give Vincent a boost is simply wrong.
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Guru status: Z1mZum'd.
ZSB [aX]
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/7/2006 11:00:01 AM | message detail
"Boosts" can be easily neutralized and overpowered with a standard voting shift. It's how Sephiroth can go from beating Mega Man with 50.51% to beating him with 62% in one year. It wasn't just his "boost" from Kingdom Hearts (being an optional boss will get you that kind of boost? Gimme a break), but the general voting shift it brought. If this site continues to shift its preferences toward Nintendo (and look at these current polls - Wii is easily the most anticipated thing on GameFAQs right now), Bowser can still beat Vincent.
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/7/2006 11:00:09 AM | message detail
The worse a game is, the smaller the boost you're going to get, pretty much. I considered using Shadow the Hedgehog as an example, but I can't remember when that was released. I didn't consider AC and KHII when I gave that answer, though, which was stupid >_>. You're right, Vincent would definitely be the favourite because of those two things. I just don't think Dirge alone will help him a great deal.

I still do not see how you could downplay something like this. Tediz already covered some instances where games that were considered rather bad gave boosts to characters who were in them. Devil May Cry 2 is not regarded as a good game by hardly anyone, but Dante received a boost from it -- I'll note that it was a 3% boost at that. It just does not make any sense to push Dirge of Cerberus aside like it's a non-factor in this.

Despite how the argument was awful back in 2005, Vincent is still an optional character in Final Fantasy VII. That drastically lowers his prominence in the storyline and his overall role in the game as a whole. Now, Vincent was cool enough when he was there to warrant being liked and given the strength he has. But now you're taking an already strong Vincent and giving him his own game. Vincent is the focus in the game from beginning to end; there is no Cloud or Sephiroth there to steal his limelight. Vincent's the "hero" in Dirge of Cerberus from start to finish, never being overshadowed by another throughout the course of the game. He can gain even more favor from pre-existing fans, become far more known through the magazine advertisements, commercials, posters, and everything else. No one else will be on those promotional things but him.

If you're worried about sales, you really shouldn't be. The Japanese version sold 500,000 copies -- comparable to RE4 in America. It will not have any problems selling like crazy when its released due to it being the first "Final Fantasy VII" spinoff that is a game. And if Advent Children's success is any indication, Dirge of Cerberus will be selling like crazy.

Dirge of Cerberus gives people a reason to really like Vincent. He never had that "Badass!!" moment in Final Fantasy VII, but he's got plenty of them in Dirge of Cerberus. Anyone complaining that "Vincent doesn't do anything" lose that with DoC. That game can strengthen Vincent's existing fanbase and get him some new fans all together. That, combined with the other factors, is what makes him a rather definite favorite against any non-Noble Nine character this year. The only reason I'd even give Snake an advantage this year is because he's apart of the Noble Nine and they have never lost. If it weren't for that, you'd have far more people taking Vincent over Snake if the two met, I think. He's got everything necessary to be a beast this year.

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The winner begins with Z1m and ends with Zum... This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 8/7/2006 11:08:20 AM | message detail
If this site continues to shift its preferences toward Nintendo (and look at these current polls - Wii is easily the most anticipated thing on GameFAQs right now), Bowser can still beat Vincent.

You could make a case for that against any other game/series/character except for Final Fantasy VII. The game is the heart and soul of GameFAQs, and no shift toward Nintendo is ever going to change that. Nintendo characters can beat other Square characters or whatever, but Final Fantasy VII is still very hard for even steroid pumped Nintendo characters to take out.

Even with GameFAQs not caring in the slightest for the PlayStation 3 right now, they would still instantly buy a Final Fantasy VII remake on that console. That game, more than anything else, is what this site prefers and seeing how it easily has the strongest characters of any singular game or any series is a testament to that.

Bowser can still beat Vincent, but it is hardly something I would consider likely. If nothing had been released to help Vincent except KH2, then I might agree, but he's got far too much in his corner for Bowser to be able to win with. Bowser beating Vincent basically relies on that Nintendo shift or whatever to pull through, which is something I wouldn't dare risk my bracket on against everything Vincent has.

We still have no idea how this contest is going to play out in terms of who wins more of the matches -- Nintendo or Square. I know this topic is going to all afraid of Nintendo and choose them whenever based off of that last contest, but that just seems nutty to me. Square's done enough in the past year to keep things far more competitive in the Character Battle this year.

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The winner begins with Z1m and ends with Zum... This is the truth! This is my belief! ...At least for now.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 8/7/2006 11:12:47 AM | message detail
I said before that I'm taking Nintendo characters all the way this year... unless they go heads-up with some characters who appeared in Kingdom Hearts II. Those Nintendo/Square matches should easily be the most entertaining and hyped of the contest, and I think they can go either way.
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The Summer 2006 Guru Contest: Where Z1mZum kicked my ass.
warning_crazy | Posted 8/7/2006 11:13:46 AM | message detail
I call part 345

*EVIL LAUGH*
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Nominate the Gray Fox FC2K6!
Current Score: 12/13 Today's Pick: Mario Kart
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 8/7/2006 11:16:55 AM | message detail
One less bracket to worry about...
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