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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 336

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voltch | Posted 7/31/2006 1:07:33 PM | message detail
you know all the talk of Nintendofaqs and konamiFaqs made me realise just how powerful japan's influence on video games really is on his site.
almost no american brand has any significant strength.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 1:11:29 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 1:11:50 PM | message detail
Prince of Persia is taking everything down, you best believe it!

CanadaFAQs

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Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Mister Mario | Posted 7/31/2006 1:34:53 PM | message detail
Looking at the vote gap between SMB and FF, instead of the %, tomorrow might actually be sort of close. I still fully expect Zelda to win, though.
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3rd overall in the "10 Best Games Ever" contest (Score 11/27%).
15th overall in the "Summer 2005 Character Contest" (Score 204).
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 1:48:49 PM | message detail
I want one of two things tomorrow:

1. Final Fantasy/The Legend of Zelda to be a match for the ages
2. Super Mario Brothers to do better on Final Fantasy than the Legend of Zelda does

In other words, if Zelda wins easily tomorrow, it will suck. Anything else tomorrow is fine.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/31/2006 1:54:25 PM | message detail
Looking at the vote gap between SMB and FF, instead of the %, tomorrow might actually be sort of close. I still fully expect Zelda to win, though.

Vote gaps are irrelevant, and only become more irrelevant as the vote totals increase. Comebacks of 5000+ only become possible when the vote totals are this high.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
YoAriel33 | Posted 7/31/2006 1:56:56 PM | message detail
I'm not trying to start an argument, but the prospect of Mario possibly performing better than Zelda in this contest seems like delusional thinking. We've never seen evidence to suggest Mario's series is stronger, and whatever additional support Mario is getting here will obviously carry over to Link's series tomorrow. Zelda is stronger. Zelda has always been stronger. If one series has the power to win tomorrow's match decisively, it will be The Legend of Zelda.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 1:58:59 PM | message detail
We've never seen evidence to suggest Mario's series is stronger, and whatever additional support Mario is getting here will obviously carry over to Link's series tomorrow

Not necessarily. I don't think Zelda gets the "It's friggin' ZELDA!" treatment. And I don't think Mario fans will automatically vote for Zelda either.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
trannyscience | Posted 7/31/2006 2:02:01 PM | message detail
I'm not trying to start an argument, but the prospect of Mario possibly performing better than Zelda in this contest seems like delusional thinking. We've never seen evidence to suggest Mario's series is stronger, and whatever additional support Mario is getting here will obviously carry over to Link's series tomorrow. Zelda is stronger. Zelda has always been stronger. If one series has the power to win tomorrow's match decisively, it will be The Legend of Zelda.

I agree... but at the same time, we've never seen a series contest. while I think it's unlikely, I also think it's possible.
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NOMINATE JAY SOLANO (Operation Shadow) for 2k6!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527124
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:11:03 PM | message detail
Not necessarily. I don't think Zelda gets the "It's friggin' ZELDA!" treatment. And I don't think Mario fans will automatically vote for Zelda either.

Agree'd. I know myself and many others will be voting FF > Zelda as opposed to Mario > FF today, and a lot of those people even admitted to liking FF better, but voted Mario because "IT'S FRIGGIN' MARIO!" I'm not saying Mario will outperform Zelda, but it doing so would not surprise me.

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outback | Posted 7/31/2006 2:11:41 PM | message detail
I think it's way more likely to see people that rank the series like this

1. Zelda
2. Final Fantasy
3. Mario

than as many people in here seem to be assuming:

1. Mario
2. Final Fantasy
3. Zelda
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Don't quote me. - Blulum
øütßá©k *Truly Gone Fishing*
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:12:55 PM | message detail
I think it's way more likely to see people that rank the series like this

1. Zelda
2. Final Fantasy
3. Mario

than as many people in here seem to be assuming:

1. Mario
2. Final Fantasy
3. Zelda


That's not necessarily the issue here. The issue here is that everyone seems to be voting Super Mario Brothers over everything, regardless of whether it's even their favorite series or not.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/31/2006 2:16:21 PM | message detail
The issue here is that everyone seems to be voting Super Mario Brothers over everything, regardless of whether it's even their favorite series or not.

Yeah, that was clear in Super Mario Bros./Super Smash Bros. Oh wait...
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:17:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, because Super Mario Brothers didn't win that match easily and we weren't just underestimating Smash Brothers's ability to resist SFF.

Oh wait.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/31/2006 2:19:26 PM | message detail
5:15 votal comparison!

Final Fantasy/Super Mario Bros. - 123,202
Metal Gear/Kingdom Hearts - 106,788

FF/SMB has 15.37% more votes than MG/KH. Given MG/KH's final votal of 137,513, this match is projected to end with:

158,650 votes.

It's actually slowing down relative to MG/KH...not that 158k wouldn't be ridiculously impressive.
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/31/2006 2:20:42 PM | message detail
So SSB/MG is a 65/35 match?
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:23:29 PM | message detail
Considering that it's not really what I was saying, no. Either way, I probably worded that poorly. I was saying more like people were voting for Super Mario Brothers because it's friggin' Mario and it was actually in a tough, losable match, unlike against Smash Brothers.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:24:02 PM | message detail
So SSB/MG is a 65/35 match?

No, but I definitely take SSB over it no questions asked. Regardless, there's no way you're going to argue against people voting for Mario despite them not even liking it better than FF, people have been admitting it all over the place, simply because "IT'S ****ING MARIO" I don't see why people are trying to downplay it, or act like it isn't occurring, because it's happening.


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therealmnm | Posted 7/31/2006 2:25:16 PM | message detail
Just got home from work and skimmed through the last topic. It's funny how some people are automatically trying to discredit Sonic and Super Smash Bros. because they appeared to be "too strong" by today's performance. Sure there are many circumstances where something looked out of whack, but there are also many times when we totally discredited something that slapped us right in the face because we "didn't think it was right". Besides, these x-stats are probably going to be pretty wacky anyway, and we probably won't see another contest like this for a while, so it really doesn't make a difference besides people using the stats for speculation...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/31/2006 2:25:27 PM | message detail
And it's friggen Mario helped him so much against Sephiroth (twice!). He outperformed Ganondorf by two whole percentage points the second time!
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:26:33 PM | message detail
And it's friggen Mario helped him so much against Sephiroth (twice!). He outperformed Ganondorf by two whole percentage points the second time!

Uhh, I don't think Mario the series and Mario the character are quite the same. Heck, not even any one Mario game is the same as this unless you're telling me Mario 3 makes a match against Final Fantasy VII.

In other words, not the best counterargument in the world because this defies any and all stats.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/31/2006 2:28:00 PM | message detail
I can't believe people think that it's friggen Mario is a bit deal in a match that's going to break 150,000 votes. Especially when those exact same people said it wouldn't matter at all yesterday.
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:28:58 PM | message detail
And it's friggen Mario helped him so much against Sephiroth (twice!). He outperformed Ganondorf by two whole percentage points the second time!

lol character = series

In fact, that's why Halo owned CV so badly, it's what I hear at least! Honestly, I don't know why you're trying to defend that it's not happening, people are saying it all over the place if you'll just look for it, go through the past stats topic, or other topics on the board, ask people, they're voting Mario for the sake of it being Mario. Whether or not LoZ will perform better than Mario on FF isn't the issue here, if you want to believe that, fine. No one is saying you're crazy for thinking that, it's just that we severely underestimated SMB in this contest, even if it is losing here.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/31/2006 2:29:44 PM | message detail
So, if FF = LoZ, what does this project for Sonic/MG and Sonic/MM? Sonic being the number five series certainly makes sense to me, but I'm curious as to his margin of victory.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:30:39 PM | message detail
Especially when those exact same people said it wouldn't matter at all yesterday.

Yeah, but when Mario comes up here, slaps you in the face, and gives Final Fantasy a bigger fight than most any of us expected, why in the world should I stand by such a stance? It makes no sense.

And unless you're telling me that the Legend of Zelda destroys Final Fantasy tomorrow, there's really no reason to argue against this either.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
therealmnm | Posted 7/31/2006 2:31:01 PM | message detail
Not necessarily. I don't think Zelda gets the "It's friggin' ZELDA!" treatment. And I don't think Mario fans will automatically vote for Zelda either.

Don't know if this was responded to, but it's not like Zelda fans automatically vote for Mario... Zelda pretty much has the bigger fanbase out of the two on this site, so it probably has the advantage of being able to draw from more.
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:32:29 PM | message detail

Yeah, but when Mario comes up here, slaps you in the face, and gives Final Fantasy a bigger fight than most any of us expected, why in the world should I stand by such a stance? It makes no sense.


Because changing your opinion and admitting that you were wrong is a mortal sin, you flip-flopper.

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:32:50 PM | message detail
Sonic/Mega Man - Sonic with 60.15%
Sonic/Metal Gear - Sonic with 59.55%
Metal Gear/Mega Man - Metal Gear with 50.86%
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:34:24 PM | message detail
Don't know if this was responded to, but it's not like Zelda fans automatically vote for Mario... Zelda pretty much has the bigger fanbase out of the two on this site, so it probably has the advantage of being able to draw from more.

Indeed. Zelda fans don't automatically vote for Mario either, but I don't think FF's performance here is a sign of doom either.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Mister Mario | Posted 7/31/2006 2:34:42 PM | message detail
Metal Gear > SSB > Sonic > Mega Man.

Zelda for the win!
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3rd overall in the "10 Best Games Ever" contest (Score 11/27%).
15th overall in the "Summer 2005 Character Contest" (Score 204).
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:34:57 PM | message detail
Don't know if this was responded to, but it's not like Zelda fans automatically vote for Mario... Zelda pretty much has the bigger fanbase out of the two on this site, so it probably has the advantage of being able to draw from more.

Right, but Mario is stealing votes away from FF from people who actually like FF as a series more than Mario, I really don't see Zelda doing that... and sure Zelda has a bigger fanbase on here than Mario does, that's why no one is saying FF has it all wrapped up... I still think FF will win, but I think it will be closer than this match, under 51% for sure, but if Mario does end up outperforming it, it's not like I'm going to run around saying "LOL IT WAS THE PICTURE SRSLY WTF" or "ZOMG MARIO > ZELDA."

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:36:55 PM | message detail
Sonic/Mega Man - Sonic with 60.15%
Sonic/Metal Gear - Sonic with 59.55%
Metal Gear/Mega Man - Metal Gear with 50.86%


Those stats make me want to cry. Even if I prefer MG to MM, I'd probably take MM to win that one, and no chance in hell do I see Sonic beating either MM or MG that badly.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/31/2006 2:42:45 PM | message detail
Sonic/Mega Man - Sonic with 60.15%
Sonic/Metal Gear - Sonic with 59.55%
Metal Gear/Mega Man - Metal Gear with 50.86%


Hmmm. While I'd certainly expect Sonic to kill MM like that, that score against MG is very odd. It certainly speaks in favor of a Zelda victory over FF, though.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/31/2006 2:42:51 PM | message detail
It's pretty clear that FF isn't breaking 56%.

creative, I'd like you to nominate either Magus or Miles Edgeworth in 2007. It depends entirely on whether PW2 is out by then and if Edgey has a major role in the game.

Oh, and your new sig: "As the best poster in the stats topic, I move that we all stop acting like elitist know-it-alls about matches that aren't horribly obvious. It puts egg on our faces in every contest."

Scratch the last sentence if that's too long. Two weeks (same time frame on Guru Contest sigs) should suffice.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:43:57 PM | message detail
I hate when egg gets on my face. I break out in an allergic reaction and get red bumps all over the place.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:44:07 PM | message detail
It depends entirely on whether PW2 is out by then and if Edgey has a major role in the game.

It's not like Edgeworth will be much in a contest either way. If you'd rather him nominate Edgeworth, just go for it.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/31/2006 2:44:28 PM | message detail
True enough.

Edgey!

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
therealmnm | Posted 7/31/2006 2:44:29 PM | message detail
Hmmm. While I'd certainly expect Sonic to kill MM like that, that score against MG is very odd. It certainly speaks in favor of a Zelda victory over FF, though.

If you want to take those stats at face value, be my guest!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/31/2006 2:46:18 PM | message detail
And don't worry creative, I still <3 you =p

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:46:43 PM | message detail
Hmmm. While I'd certainly expect Sonic to kill MM like that, that score against MG is very odd. It certainly speaks in favor of a Zelda victory over FF, though.

We've known since the beggining of this contest that those stats were gonna be all crunked up, so meh, doesn't do much for me to say that.

Also, we totally need to get Gilder in the next contest... sure I love Vyse just as much, but Gilder needs some representation, and it's not like Vyse has much of a chance of ever actually winning a match, it'd be awesome to see him get into one of these things. Or we could just nominate both.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/31/2006 2:47:24 PM | message detail
If you want to take those stats at face value, be my guest!

I didn't say that those stats meant that a Zelda victory over FF was inevitable, just that they spoke in favor of one. If it doesn't work out that way, I'll just have to find a new interpretation. As I've said before, I've always seen Sonic as a cut above the rest (other than SSB).
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:48:20 PM | message detail
and it's not like Vyse has much of a chance of ever actually winning a match, it'd be awesome to see him get into one of these things

Yeah, Vyse got his one win, and I'm content with that. I'm not expecting another one any time soon.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Kaxon | Posted 7/31/2006 2:48:21 PM | message detail
I can't believe people think that it's friggen Mario is a bit deal in a match that's going to break 150,000 votes.

Again, why would it matter that there are 150000 votes? If friggen Mario matters with 100 votes, it matters with 150000. If friggen Mario doesn't matter with 150000, it doesn't matter with 100.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:50:56 PM | message detail
I'm with Kaxon for this one... that logic just doesn't make sense. However with the whole pic ordeal and number of votes, I'd have to go against Kaxon just simply because the higher vote totals usually indicate the fanbase caring about both titles a lot more, thusly their are a larger number of people just voting for who they'd rather see win, the picture not really having much of an effect. It may have the same effect as always vote wise, but I don't think that number increases as total votes increase, making the significance of it much smaller.

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 2:52:48 PM | message detail
Grr... that was the worst 500 post in the history of 500 posts Leon! You planning on making a new nomination rally topic, or no?

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/31/2006 2:53:38 PM | message detail
I thought it was pretty fitting. I thought I might leave it at that.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Draco1214 | Posted 7/31/2006 2:59:05 PM | message detail
I find it funny that despite getting doubled by Mario in Shivan's Board 8 poll, Final Fantasy is doing much better at damage control against Zelda in my pre-poll.

Maybe the "it's friggin Mario" mentality really did make a difference.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/31/2006 3:00:10 PM | message detail
The only reason I haven't found out your address and come to savagely beat you is because Squall is actually a good character. If you had mentioned Tidus, you'd be dead right now!

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trannyscience | Posted 7/31/2006 3:01:15 PM | message detail
looks like Mario's advantage during the morning/afternoon is going away. FF is getting 54-57% updates here.
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NOMINATE JAY SOLANO (Operation Shadow) for 2k6!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527124
gonf | Posted 7/31/2006 3:01:56 PM | message detail
Right, that's why you're coming into the stats topic, not talking about anything contest related, and trying to start ****.

Sorry but the first person to talk about something that doesn't have anything to do with stats wasn't me. I just replied to that user. And I'm not trying to start anything.

Get the hell out.

Now, who is the one trying to start something? You know, I post where I want to. You don't tell me in which topics I can post or not until you become a mod at least, which isn't likely to happen soon looking at your karma (unless you have an alt with more karma).
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Most wanted game: LoZ: TP