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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 334

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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/30/2006 1:32:19 PM | message detail
So I just now got around to seeing the FF/Mario pic and let me tell you.....lol wtf.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/30/2006 1:32:51 PM | message detail
that new voter pool would favor Metroid more than it did.

I don't think you can really say new voter pool = younger generation that will have mostly only experienced games from the here and now though.... I didn't come here until April of 03, but my first console was the NES. Yeah, anecdotal, but it's not like you have any real proof of anything different.

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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/30/2006 1:34:25 PM | message detail
EC, we know that was a one-time thing, much like that one time a woman touched you.

Your mother has touched me multiple times FYI! Seriously though, if that match had occurred 15 times in 2K2, I would expect it to come out with the same result, or very close to it every single time.... I don't think it was a fluke match, it just points towards 2K2 being a totally different year from every thing else we've ever seen.

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HaRRicH | Posted 7/30/2006 1:34:54 PM | message detail
Which I've already noted, but while I spent alot of time focusing on why Metroid had the most reason to improve due to all that and having literally nothing the generation before, my main thing is that it should reasonably gain in a poll like that more than Mario should.

If anything though, I think the biggest differences in another poll like that would be LoZ winning with more (thanks to LoZ:WW and LoZ:TP if it's out by then) and SSB would take F-Zero's place and shake up the percentages more.
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 1:36:03 PM | message detail
It's reasonable to an extent, but debatable nonetheless and nothing I would take as a certainty.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 7/30/2006 1:36:44 PM | message detail
Agreed. If there's anything that keeps Zelda from gaining half the votes in a Nintendo poll, it's Smash Bros. I bet it would still be on the verge of doubling Mario.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/30/2006 1:38:08 PM | message detail
I'd point to Tina/Gordon, Jill/Kirby, DK/Aya, and Mega Man/Sephiroth before Mario/Cloud then.

I'm not trying to say that it should be winning over the new massive crowd though, but rather that it's done plenty to boost itself up more to be a favorite amongst gamers of any age.
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Kaxon | Posted 7/30/2006 1:38:22 PM | message detail
Agreed. It's ****ing Mario, and it's ****ing FF. Everyone's got their minds made up before looking at the picture.* When it takes two losers like Gordon Freeman and Tina Armstrong to actually get the match pic to matter... yeah.

*Well, I don't, honestly.


You, someone who follows the contest more closely than 99.99% of voters, haven't made up your mind yet. Why do you assume the other 130000+ voters all have? Plenty of people like both series. I'll never understand why some people find it so hard to believe that a picture can influence people's votes... even people who've admitted to voting based on the picture themselves. (Not saying you're going to decide based on the picture, but other people have).

I could easily see this picture gaining Mario 1-2%... it's unlikely to change the outcome of the match, but still.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/30/2006 1:38:44 PM | message detail
I still don't disagree that Zelda would definitely be the heavy favorite over Mario in a poll like that, but I don't think it's really worth using considering the age of it. Regardless, I don't see how FF has to get 60% on Mario to have it remain the favorite.

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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 1:39:25 PM | message detail
Heh, in a match likely to hit 135-140k votes, I find even 1% to be unlikely.
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Kaxon | Posted 7/30/2006 1:41:06 PM | message detail
I haven't see anybody say that match picture made them change their vote.

I've seen people say it in this very topic. Cloud vs Duke is the most prominent example I can remember.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/30/2006 1:41:56 PM | message detail
I've seen people say it in this very topic. Cloud vs Duke is the most prominent example I can remember.

Madden vs. Mario, Snake vs. Sora, SSB vs. FFX.

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HaRRicH | Posted 7/30/2006 1:42:04 PM | message detail
Agreed. If there's anything that keeps Zelda from gaining half the votes in a Nintendo poll, it's Smash Bros. I bet it would still be on the verge of doubling Mario.

Okay, well-said, I mixed my words last time. Ahem...without SSB, LoZ wins with more than last time. With SSB, I'll agree with you, and I wonder how well it'd hold up against every other Nintendo franchise. It already blew stat-minds against SMB afew days ago, faring FAR better than a weaker Metroid did against a stronger LoZ and showed you're going to have a dandy of a time trying to SFF it despite having less games than any other series in that poll.....
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/30/2006 1:43:03 PM | message detail
It may be outdated, but how much do you think the pecking order and gaps have really changed? I'll go ahead and post the poll just for easy referencing:

The order of the series aren't going to change, but the percentages that they get most definitely will. Zelda is not going to be getting 50% in that poll if you take it again. I don't see how you could honestly expect it to hit those same percentages when this site has certainly changed more here for other series than it has for Zelda. No doubt that Zelda is still going to win that poll without much trouble, but Mario is not going to gather up half the percentage that Zelda gets again. The fact that this poll was taken in 2001 with a whopping 12,704 total votes more or less removes any and all relevance it has. Unless, of course, you want me to pull up old Final Fantasy polls where FFVII and FFVI were actually close. Nothing is going to change much, right?

Tell me what Mario's done to put itself so much further ahead of the pack than Metroid or even LoZ this generation.

I'm more concerned with the fact that more than anything else, Mario looks like he is on the biggest rise as of late. That "Nintendo Boost" was bigger for the Mario characters than anyone else -- Mario, Luigi, Bowser, Yoshi, Donkey Kong. All of them got the most noticeable boosts. Nothing has been more impressive lately than Mario. Zelda certainly has not had this amazing new addition to its series that warrants it increasing by so much over the years anyway. Mario has been at his best and strongest in recent years -- this applies to all Mario characters -- and not way back in 2001. There is just no way you're getting me to think about taking your "reasoning" seriously if you're going to use a poll from 2001 to back it up.

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Draco1214 | Posted 7/30/2006 1:45:38 PM | message detail
The pic will not affect the result of Mario/FF much. FF had Vaan, Amano art Kain, Zidane, and FFX-2 Yuna against RE. It was still able to triple it with over 100k votes.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/30/2006 1:47:09 PM | message detail
Regardless, I don't see how FF has to get 60% on Mario to have it remain the favorite.

It doesn't. No one is even thinking like that except Harrich.

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Kaxon | Posted 7/30/2006 1:49:11 PM | message detail
Or you'd think an insanely larger voting pool is much more likely to favor Zelda as opposed to Metroid.

Heh, in a match likely to hit 135-140k votes, I find even 1% to be unlikely.


Honest question, why do you think a larger voter pool is likely to change either of these things? It goes against everything I know about statistics, unless you demonstrate a reason that the previous smaller voter pool was not a representative sample of the overall GameFAQs voting population.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/30/2006 1:49:25 PM | message detail
If anything though, I think the biggest differences in another poll like that would be LoZ winning with more (thanks to LoZ:WW and LoZ:TP if it's out by then) and SSB would take F-Zero's place and shake up the percentages more.

Zelda would win by more if Twilight Princess is taken into consideration, but I was not thinking of that poll being taken after its release.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/30/2006 1:51:14 PM | message detail
Link/Mario 2k5 is expected to be just about the same as Link/Mario 2k2, looking at the stats.
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 1:51:22 PM | message detail
Honest question, why do you think a larger voter pool is likely to change either of these things? It goes against everything I know about statistics, unless you demonstrate a reason that the previous smaller voter pool was not a representative sample of the overall GameFAQs voting population.

Let's end the debate now. Which was the best Final Fantasy game?

191 3.25% Final Fantasy I
50 0.85% Final Fantasy II
126 2.14% Final Fantasy III
202 3.44% Final Fantasy IV
251 4.27% Final Fantasy IV EasyType
282 4.8% Final Fantasy V
1966 33.44% Final Fantasy VI
1472 25.04% Final Fantasy VII
1339 22.78% Final Fantasy VIII

What's the best Squaresoft game of all time?

441 5.03% Chrono Cross
1886 21.53% Chrono Trigger
1358 15.5% Final Fantasy VI (III)
1882 21.48% Final Fantasy VII
751 8.57% Final Fantasy IX
728 8.31% Final Fantasy Tactics
987 11.27% Xenogears
727 8.3% Other

TOTAL VOTES: 8760
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 1:52:36 PM | message detail
And honestly, things have changed massively from 2002 to 2003, 2003 to 2004, 2004 to 2005.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/30/2006 1:53:21 PM | message detail
It's all we got though, and it's not like it's a bad outline. It's not like the FF7/FF6 poll -- it's not THAT wrong at all. I've seen the poll, analyzed it, and tried to explain what I thought had changed since then and why certain series would do better or worse today...where's the wrong in that?

Anyway, on top of LoZ doubling Mario and beating every other Nintendo franchise in that poll, I also made mention that Link still broke 60% on Mario head-to-head in 2k2 and that Link would still be expected to break 60% on Mario as recently as last year. LoZ's two biggest games have also outdone any Mario game you want to mention twice -- in two different ways -- not to mention LoZ is probably the only series you can say that there is a must-have game on each Nintendo console from it. SMS is one of the top-sellers, but would you call it a must-have for the Gamecube? LoZ's presence > SMB's presence on both the N64 and SNES, too, not to mention that LoZ kept very respectable against SMB3 (and was possibly even SFF'd).

That's my reasoning for thinking LoZ > FF is likely if SMB breaks 40%.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/30/2006 1:54:02 PM | message detail
Link/Mario 2k5 is expected to be just about the same as Link/Mario 2k2, looking at the stats.

One has Mario getting 37% and the other nearly getting 40%. That's not really what I would call about the same.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/30/2006 1:55:59 PM | message detail
You don't think Link could steal away 2.12% due to SFF?
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Kaxon | Posted 7/30/2006 1:56:34 PM | message detail
Those polls were taken six years ago. If they'd gotten 150000 people to vote on November 29, 2000, the results would have been pretty much the same.
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 1:57:21 PM | message detail
Regardless, that's not exactly a fair argument (and it almost sort of goes against what you're trying to argue). Mario's and Link's strengths have changed drastically even in 4 years. And they haven't been proportional every year either, for that matter.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/30/2006 1:57:30 PM | message detail
Zelda would win by more if Twilight Princess is taken into consideration, but I was not thinking of that poll being taken after its release.

I was meaning that -- though LoZ could could already win by more because of LoZ:WW, it would win with even more than that if it had LoZ:TP, which is getting closer and closer.
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 1:58:42 PM | message detail
Those polls were taken six years ago.

Which is essentially why I said trusting a Favorite Nintendo Poll to carry over proportionally to now doesn't make any sense, especially when you see how much voters' tastes change, even from year to year.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/30/2006 2:01:29 PM | message detail
Which is essentially why I said trusting a Favorite Nintendo Poll to carry over proportionally to now doesn't make any sense, especially when you see how much voters' tastes change, even from year to year.

Which was what I was trying to say with that poll from the very beginning AND tried to explain why certain things would probably change for better or for worse, but instead the focus was made to be "dude, that poll's old" instead of what I was actually arguing.
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 2:03:10 PM | message detail
But "Dude, that poll's old" is all the reason not to put much stock into it. You can argue why you think something should happen all you want, but that's not a good representative sample of GameFAQs today.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/30/2006 2:03:58 PM | message detail
While we're on the subject, I just wanted to bring up something interesting

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1590

The question was in regards to GameRankings. The correct answer was Metroid Prime, yet Wind Waker STILL had almost half the votes.

And then 18 days later:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1646

Talk about killing the hype for that match. It was hugely discussed before the GameRankings poll, but after that everyone knew WW was going to take it.
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Kaxon | Posted 7/30/2006 2:04:45 PM | message detail
Which is essentially why I said trusting a Favorite Nintendo Poll to carry over proportionally to now doesn't make any sense, especially when you see how much voters' tastes change, even from year to year.

Yeah, I totally agree with you there. I'm not arguing in favor of using that old poll, I was just asking why you think the number of voters would change the results or reduce the effect of the picture. That doesn't make any sense. The worst was last year, when some people tried to claim that high vote totals benefitted Square, just because there had been high vote totals in 2003. D'oh!
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 2:05:14 PM | message detail
LOL Prince of Persia
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 2:06:20 PM | message detail
I'm not arguing in favor of using that old poll, I was just asking why you think the number of voters would change the results or reduce the effect of the picture

I honestly think the number of people likely to be swayed by the picture is very small anyway and not likely to be a fixed rate, but that's just my opinion.
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As you wish.
consolefreak | Posted 7/30/2006 2:18:21 PM | message detail
I don't really see how the pic only affects unknown contestants. In a match like FF-SMB, you have a lot of people who have played both series, and like them about as much. A vote could easily be tipped towards SMB's favour, in such an event.

Just look at Snake. Is he a weak contestant? He does get hurt badly from his crappy sprite pics.

In any case, I don't want to overblow this, the pic doesn't really matter to me as long as it doesn't change the winner (and I'm pretty sure it won't).
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Sp2k6: 43/48. LoZ VS. MG Tomorrow: SMB VS. FF
Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 2:20:14 PM | message detail
The main difference is that Final Fantasy doesn't have a crappy picture. It's not Solid Snake sprite ugly, that's for sure. It's not going to make the voters go, "Ugh, what is that?" Honestly, a picture would have to be hideous or ridiculously stacked before I see it making a noticeable impact, and that match picture is neither.
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As you wish.
Link versus Cloud | Posted 7/30/2006 2:22:45 PM | message detail
I'd definitely believe the series pecking order being identical to the Noble 9 (with only the order switched around):

Final Fantasy
Zelda
Mario
Super Smash Bros. (I guess this counts as Link, Mario, and Samus)
Metal Gear
Mega Man
Sonic
Chrono (I hate you, CJayC)
--
The Rest


If FF beats Zelda MM will be above MG and wtf at Crono
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Current Contest Score:43/48 Losses: Halo, GTA, Elder Scrolls, Sonic(x2) Today's Pick: Zelda
Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 2:23:46 PM | message detail
Mega Man won't necessarily be above Metal Gear. Final Fantasy could just squeak by and that would put Metal Gear ahead.
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As you wish.
consolefreak | Posted 7/30/2006 2:24:21 PM | message detail
The main difference is that Final Fantasy doesn't have a crappy picture. It's not Solid Snake sprite ugly, that's for sure. It's not going to make the voters go, "Ugh, what is that?" Honestly, a picture would have to be hideous or ridiculously stacked before I see it making a noticeable impact, and that match picture is neither.

Yeah that's a solid point. It's not like FF's going to be missing out on recognition votes.

Although the old side is pretty crappy. And someone like Cloud instead of Ashe could tip some doubter's minds towards FF, but yeah, in the end, it's just a pic. It shouldn't change the outcome.
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Sp2k6: 43/48. LoZ VS. MG Tomorrow: SMB VS. FF
Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/30/2006 2:25:08 PM | message detail
Finish the bracket! Or fix it!

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29586098

Luminaire Division
1) Crono
8) CATS

4) Sub-Zero
5) Donkey Kong

3) Sora
6) Pac-Man

2) Kirby
7)

Koopa Division
1) Bowser
8)

4) Master Chief
5) Luigi

3) Princess Toadstool (Peach)
6) Diablo

2) Knuckles the Echidna
7)

Triforce Division
1) Zelda
8)

4) Kefka
5) KOS-MOS

3) Prince of Persia
6) Tommy Vercetti

2) Aeris Gainsborough
7) Phoenix Wright

Chaos Division
1) Sonic the Hedgehog
8)

4)
5)

3) Alucard
6) Captain Falcon

2) Squall Leonhart
7) Revolver Ocelot

20XX Division
1) Mega Man
8)

4) Cammy
5) Chun-Li

3) Mewtwo
6) Leon Kennedy

2) Ganondorf
7)

Devil Division
1) Vincent Valentine
8)

4) Carl Johnson
5) Gordon Freeman

3) Shadow the Hedgehog
6) Ness

2) Tifa Lockheart
7)

Zebes Division
1) Samus Aran
8)

4) Scorpion
5) Lenneth Valkyrie

3) Yoshi
6) Frog

2) Zero
7)

Foxhound Division
1) Solid Snake
8)

4) Magus
5) Tidus

3) Ryu (Street Fighter)
6)

2) Auron
7)

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Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/30/2006 2:35:53 PM | message detail
Assume Zelda/FF has this match pic: http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/7171/thefinalwo6.png

Who would win?
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Slowflake | Posted 7/30/2006 2:36:53 PM | message detail
Mario.

Yes, I went there.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 7/30/2006 2:38:14 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy. Unless Mario really fights tooth and nail tonight, Final Fantasy will be the favorite.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/30/2006 2:39:11 PM | message detail
If Mario fights tooth and nail tonight, it'll take the lead in the morning and win.

Yeah, I know what you meant, I just wanted to be anal.
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Kaxon | Posted 7/30/2006 2:52:28 PM | message detail
Assume Zelda/FF has this match pic: http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/7171/thefinalwo6.png

Who would win?


Castlevania!
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steve illumina | Posted 7/30/2006 3:37:11 PM | message detail
I really do love this picture Ceej used today...simple yet elegant...best of the contest so far IMHO.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/30/2006 3:52:16 PM | message detail
Sir Crono | Posted 7/30/2006 5:05:14 PM | message detail
LOL Prince of Persia


PoP was almost as high as Mario on that poll!

Link - 50.00
Mario - 40.00
Prince of Persia - 39.01

Book it!

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charmander6000 | Posted 7/30/2006 4:28:04 PM | message detail
Match XXX: (1) Super Mario Bros. vs. (1) Final Fantasy

Past Matches

Super Mario Bros
Defeated Madden NFL, 92.21% - 7.79%
Defeated Warcraft, 81.13% - 18.87%
Defeated Super Smash Bros, 61.76% - 38.24%

Final Fantasy
Defeated Diablo, 85.98% - 14.02%
Defeated Mega Man, 74.19% - 25.81%
Defeated Resident Evil, 76.06% - 23.94%

Analysis:

SMB was the first of the Big 3 to show any weakness of any kind as it was fail to SFF SSB last round and destroying any hopes of an upset against Final Fantasy. Final Fantasy raps up its division by beating Resident Evil worse than it did Mega Man and like LoZ it has scored over 100k in all three of its matches.

This is the first match of the Big 3 and the winner would get to face LoZ in the finals to see what the Best Series Ever is. When the contest first started I compared the Big 3 to Clinkeroth, Final Fantasy was Link, strong favorite to take the contest, The Legend of Zelda was Cloud, the best chance of upsetting Final Fantasy and Super Mario Bros. was Sephiroth, even though no one outside the Big 3 can touch it, it can’t really touch the other two members of the Big 3.

After the match against SSB the board has though SMB is weaker than we first thought. I think SSB was a strong series in its own right. The reason SMB couldn’t SFF SSB was unlike most Nintendo series where it only has the backing of the main fans of the series while the rest of Nintendo could betray it over another Nintendo series, SSB has appeal to most Nintendo fans because it has their favorite Nintendo character in it. I’m not saying Super Mario Bros. might upset, I’m just saying that Final Fantasy won’t run over it just because it couldn’t SFF SSB.

The final match was thought to be Final Fantasy vs. The Legend of Zelda and it will end as that match, but Super Mario Bros. will be sure to leave its mark before losing tomorrow. Hopefully the board will make it have a small lead at the beginning of the poll.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Final Fantasy over Super Mario Bros.

charmander6000’s Prediction: Final Fantasy wins, 54.94% - 45.06%

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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/30/2006 5:30:03 PM | message detail
Getting 58% on a chump was just that much more foreboding.

Hey! I know this was covered about three posts after you posted it, but, but, but....hey! Kingdom Hearts is no chump.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/30/2006 5:40:49 PM | message detail
Yes it is! According to newbs I've seen posting today, Kingdom Hearts would lose to Star Ocean, let alone beat something *really* tough like Kirby. Pokemon would triple it.
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