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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 334

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/29/2006 9:19:08 PM | message detail
This is MG's best time, and it's getting destroyed. People said that they'd be concerned for FF if Zelda managed to triple Metal Gear....



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html



!yawA tsoP
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:20:16 PM | message detail
But Zelda won't. METAL GEAR WITH THE SURPRISE DAY VOTE WIN!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/29/2006 10:24:02 PM | message detail
NORG HUNGRY, NORG WANT EAT.

Oh and... Final Fantasy is so screwed.
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/29/2006 10:26:53 PM | message detail
Knuckles > Metal Gear
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
stingers, Rad, longblade, and Ryoko owned me in a sig bet and all I got was this lousy T-Shirt
Sir Crono | Posted 7/29/2006 10:47:18 PM | message detail
You know, I was wondering if we should start worrying about Crono's chances because I doubt most people nominating him used his last name.
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As you wish.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/29/2006 10:47:45 PM | message detail
FF > Zelda
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/29/2006 10:48:10 PM | message detail
WTF about worrying about FF's start? Fighter, Black Mage, to Vaan or whoever, if the theme continues.

We don't need just one character.
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Nominate Nidoran F.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527160
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/29/2006 10:48:13 PM | message detail
I already solved this: Use Cloud's FFT sprite for the beginning and use Advent Children Cloud for the here and now.

That might be the worst idea I've heard all week!

---
Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids - Team Tranny Did!
Sir Crono | Posted 7/29/2006 10:48:39 PM | message detail
Good thing the week just started 1 hour 48 minutes ago!
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As you wish.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 10:49:01 PM | message detail
I've already come up with numerous justifications, even before this. FF's diversity could theoretically hurt more than help, and that with NintendoFAQs = trouble. Or, perhaps more shockingly (and I've mentioned this possibility back during 2k5), perhaps FFVII isn't the site's favorite game any more (or isn't its favorite by a significant margin). Yeah, there's the top ten list, but I'm willing to bet the vast majority of people here would take LttP over CT despite it.

Good points, KH. Even though fluctuations in game strength would seem to be much more stable than character strength, after the shifts we've seen since SC2K4, I'm certain at least some change took place.

Example: In Spring 2004, LttP beat FFVI with 52.66%. If that same match took place tomorrow, is there anyone who wouldn't take Zelda to cover the spread?
---
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/29/2006 10:50:37 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
Janus5000 | Posted 7/29/2006 10:52:35 PM | message detail
*stabs Axel's horrendous catch-phrase repeatedly*
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 10:53:07 PM | message detail
Though if FFVII isn't the site's favorite game anymore, I'm utterly dumbfounded as to how Cloud is able to still hang with Link so well. 47.5% may be his worst loss to date, but it's not like it's in blowout territory.

Plus there's conceivably a possibility that Zelda wins the series contest and yet Cloud pulls out a win over Link. That would be weird...
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 10:53:41 PM | message detail
Commit it to memory. > Got it memorized?

Too bad I still have to keep this sig for a while longer!
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/29/2006 10:53:55 PM | message detail
I find it strange that despite this being an impressive performance by Zelda, it's still lagging behind FF/Mega Man in vote totals. By a couple thousand, too.

Out of curiosity, what does FF have to get on Zelda for Mega Man and Metal Gear to be equal?
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:00:11 PM | message detail
Though if FFVII isn't the site's favorite game anymore, I'm utterly dumbfounded as to how Cloud is able to still hang with Link so well. 47.5% may be his worst loss to date, but it's not like it's in blowout territory.

Plus there's conceivably a possibility that Zelda wins the series contest and yet Cloud pulls out a win over Link. That would be weird...


Well, it seems reasonable to think that if one removes Ocarina of Time and Final Fantasy VII from the equation, Zelda becomes the stronger series. Thus, if it does actually win, maybe even the FFVII fans would have voted as such (as you said, this would be a case of FF's diversity hurting it)? Of course, if that were to happen, then how in the hell is SSB so friggin' strong when it's carried by one game?

See, thinking about this stuff is the main thing that keeps bringing me back to the reality of a Final Fantasy victory despite my fanboyism. It has to win or else nothing makes sense.
---
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
DGZFIGHTERS | Posted 7/29/2006 11:00:29 PM | message detail
Damn, I wanted Zelda to break 80 against MG just to keep the streak going >_>

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The greatest torture in the world for most people is to think
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/29/2006 11:04:53 PM | message detail
It has to win or else nothing makes sense.

It's not like anything else in this contest is making much sense.
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Nominate Nidoran F.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527160
ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/29/2006 11:05:03 PM | message detail
Jesus Christ Zelda wins the contest.
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<b>|B|A|S|E|B|A|L|L|
<i>--My Anti-Drug--</i></b>
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/29/2006 11:05:54 PM | message detail
Sir Crono's FF idea wins.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:06:40 PM | message detail
And uhh... Zelda's been gaining for the past 45 minutes. >_>
---
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/29/2006 11:08:04 PM | message detail
Metal Gear always finds a way to disappoint.
---
Nominate Nidoran F.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527160
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/29/2006 11:10:52 PM | message detail
Didn't disappoint in Mario/Snake SC2k5 :)
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:14:04 PM | message detail
Tequilla, weren't you the guy who repeatedly claimed that Snake would beat Mario?
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
Draco1214 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:14:32 PM | message detail
Hmmm...at this rate, Zelda will not break 100k on its own. Still about 1k behind FF's individual vote total on Mega Man. Metal Gear's individual total is also behind Mega Man's on FF.

So it seems very likely now that Mega Man > Metal Gear.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Viviff | Posted 7/29/2006 11:15:30 PM | message detail
Looks like someone's gonna be fighting tooth and nail all day to avoid a tripling, I wonder who saw that coming.......
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"The best part of you ran down my leg!" - My father
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 11:16:10 PM | message detail
You can't use this match to say Mega Man > Metal Gear and ignore the implications for RE > MG. You just can't.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/29/2006 11:16:14 PM | message detail
Tequilla, weren't you the guy who repeatedly claimed that Snake would beat Mario?

Never crossed my mind. I remember saying it would break 45% though.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/29/2006 11:16:25 PM | message detail
not only that, he tried to use Shadow the Hedgehog as proof that Zero > Mario. then Mario just blew Zero even past the X-stat's prediction.
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:17:36 PM | message detail
Hmmm...at this rate, Zelda will not break 100k on its own. Still about 1k behind FF's individual vote total on Mega Man. Metal Gear's individual total is also behind Mega Man's on FF.

So it seems very likely now that Mega Man > Metal Gear.


I'm sorry, but XD. About a week ago, when I claimed that the only series with any shot to be ranked fourth ahead of MG were Mega Man and Resident Evil, I was practically laughed at. Of course, Super Smash Bros. has given us all a very painful dose of reality, but I doubt this makes anyone rethink Metal Gear/Mega Man.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/29/2006 11:18:38 PM | message detail
not only that, he tried to use Shadow the Hedgehog as proof that Zero > Mario. then Mario just blew Zero even past the X-stat's prediction.

Nah

thats u
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Draco1214 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:20:16 PM | message detail
I wonder if it's a possibility that Snake is stronger than his games.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 11:20:58 PM | message detail
I don't remember too many people laughing on the thought of MM > MG after the showing it gave against FF. I did think RE > MG was an impossibility due to SFF it would face, but that never materialized. And even then, I'm shocked that it only did 1.5% or so worse than Mega Man. And that Street Fighter is so close. That favorite Capcom series poll amounted to so little in the end, as far as percentages went.

Though it did get the pecking order right, to its credit.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 11:22:03 PM | message detail
Nah, Snake ain't stronger than his games yet, though he will be after SSBB.
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:23:49 PM | message detail
I wonder if it's a possibility that Snake is stronger than his games.

I wouldn't bet on it. Unlike characters such as Mario, Sonic, and Mega Man, Snake has virtually nothing outside of his games. His name does not appear in the titles and he hardly gets marketed.
---
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
DGZFIGHTERS | Posted 7/29/2006 11:24:54 PM | message detail
Interesting...right now Zelda series is Beat Metal Gear Solid series worse than FFVII beated Metal Gear Solid.

I think Metal Gear Solid series is more popular than MGS...

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The greatest torture in the world for most people is to think
transience | Posted 7/29/2006 11:26:22 PM | message detail
Interesting...right now Zelda series is Beat Metal Gear Solid series worse than FFVII beated Metal Gear Solid.

I think Metal Gear Solid series is more popular than MGS...

nah. simply put, MGS2 + 3 is nothing compared to LTTP + MM + WW + 1 + GB games + GBA games plus....
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 11:27:26 PM | message detail
So the Zelda series is more popular than FFVII? WHAT A SURPRISE

On another note, I still think that the Metal Gear series doing worse in its individual poll than MGS alone did speaks toward MG losing a step since last fall. Getting 58% on a chump was just that much more foreboding. This isn't *all* Zelda.

I still think FF is the favorite, but if Zelda wins I'm thinking it won't even be close. It'll be the new FFVII/OoT.
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:27:56 PM | message detail
Zelda's stability is really impressing me; it has not drifted above or below 72% yet. At this rate, Metal Gear might never see 28%.
---
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
transience | Posted 7/29/2006 11:29:03 PM | message detail
KH (lol) isn't a "chump" really. unless you think Castlevania's equally a chump and Halo is essentially fodder.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 11:29:39 PM | message detail
We had yet to see Zelda in a real match before this one. It might take on the FF trend of continually increasing until the end of the match, for all we know.
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/29/2006 11:29:54 PM | message detail
His name does not appear in the titles and he hardly gets marketed.

And then Brawl gets released. Instant boost after that game is out for awhile, assuming it's good enough.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
Draco1214 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:30:06 PM | message detail
So the Zelda series is more popular than FFVII? WHAT A SURPRISE

So I guess the question becomes just how much do the other games in the FF series add to the whole? And how big is the gap between the Zelda series and FFVII?
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 11:31:52 PM | message detail
I've argued for KH and Halo being chumps since day one. I also viewed CV as a chump, which is why I had it losing to Halo in the first place (that and I have never -- EVER -- taken Castlevania to win a match...outside of Simon Belmont > Crono). Metal Gear is letting us know exactly how bad all of those series were now.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:38:27 PM | message detail
I'd definitely believe the series pecking order being identical to the Noble 9 (with only the order switched around):

Final Fantasy
Zelda
Mario
Super Smash Bros. (I guess this counts as Link, Mario, and Samus)
Metal Gear
Mega Man
Sonic
Chrono (I hate you, CJayC)
--
The Rest

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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
transience | Posted 7/29/2006 11:39:46 PM | message detail
wtf games = characters
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Draco1214 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:40:30 PM | message detail
I think RE and SF are going to rank higher than Sonic when this is all said and done.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 11:41:20 PM | message detail
All who would take RE and SF over Sonic raise your hands.

...right.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:42:40 PM | message detail
I wouldn't either. It's just that I think Mario is going to get pounded by FF in the next match, making Sonic look weaker than RE and SF statistically.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Janus5000 | Posted 7/29/2006 11:43:42 PM | message detail
And Fire Emblem > Metroid!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."