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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 333

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cyko | Posted 7/29/2006 9:16:53 PM | message detail
so, Kirby, Madden, and Shadow Hearts will be the bottom three series, eh?

and i highly doubt SMB can take down FF after it's poor performance against SSBM. but now that Zelda has jumped back up to almost 73%, Zelda definitely still has a chance to take out FF.


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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:17:24 PM | message detail
except Mario has the 'it's freaking MARIO" factor to keep it afloat.

Mario's not facing Samus, and it didn't help him against Chrono Trigger...three times.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:17:32 PM | message detail
Mario beating FF just reeks of wishful thinking to me. Does anyone really think that SSB gains more from adding SSB 64 to it than FFVII gains from EVERY SINGLE FINAL FANTASY EVER? That speaks very poorly of the FF games to me, frankly.

I agree with you, but not for those reasons. Just because smash had an impressive performance against melee doesn't really make the Mario series any weaker.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
transience | Posted 7/29/2006 9:17:43 PM | message detail
That percentage for Zelda/Mario isn't impossible, but it seems rather unlikely.

I always figured Zelda/Mario would go similar to Link/Mario 2k2... no real reason why though. it just seems like a 60/40 match to me.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:17:45 PM | message detail
Ulti, if you're so convinced Mario has a legit shot at Final Fantasy, how about a sig bet? If it ever had much a shot it should be able to get 45%. So I win if Final Fantasy gets 55% (actually let's make it 56% to be more fair).

In fact a nomination bet would be better...half the nominations of the loser chosen by the winner? (for some contest next year)

Thoughts?

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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:18:05 PM | message detail
Okay, that percentage isn't. And I definitely think Zelda can shoot towards the tripling with its massive day vote, and Metal Gear's pathetic one.
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
Kratos_42 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:18:15 PM | message detail
Ouch, we could have as many as 13 perfects. I hope LoZ wins, if only so that we don't.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
LordOfDabu | Posted 7/29/2006 9:18:36 PM | message detail
"Just because smash had an impressive performance against melee doesn't really make the Mario series any weaker."

No, but I'd say the vote totals do.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:18:46 PM | message detail
Zelda has always had a chance. But what has made me worrisome is that every single casual seems to have Zelda winning, against the board's near unanimity for FF. That's just foreboding when looking at Mario/Samus.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:19:19 PM | message detail
AND THE ANTES HAVE BEEN UPPED

Seeing as how I already lost a 1000-Karma account and have nothing else to lose, I feel no shame in goading Ulti into this.

OMG SPRING 2004 CHAMP YOU GUN TAKE THAT
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:19:23 PM | message detail
But what has made me worrisome is that every single casual seems to have Zelda winning, against the board's near unanimity for FF.

I bet over half of the brackets have Final Fantasy winning.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:20:29 PM | message detail
No, but I'd say the vote totals do.

I know other sff matches this contest have still done fine for themselves, but sff matches usually have lousy vote totals.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:20:43 PM | message detail
I too would think Final Fantasy is the casual bracket favorite over Zelda.

If Zelda does finish with the tripling...sheesh. I really didn't think it could.
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Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/29/2006 9:20:52 PM | message detail
Ouch, we could have as many as 13 perfects. I hope LoZ wins, if only so that we don't.

I'll take it one step further and hope SMB wins, because that would ensure there would be no perfects.

Hell, just beating FF would be enough to kill off the perfects.
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Nominate Nidoran F.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:21:00 PM | message detail
No, but I'd say the vote totals do.

"SFF" matches, and I use the term not to signify any anomaly here, but rather matches between the same fanbase, tend to have horrible votals. SMB/SSB is comparable to Bowser/Kirby to me, in that both series are very strong but got very low votals when paired together, even if there was no SFF. I'd guess low 40s for SMB on FF, which, all things considered, is pretty good.
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:21:22 PM | message detail
As I think tranny said, Zelda's day vote isn't that massive compared to its night vote -- it's dominant at every stage of the game. It's not like Kingdom Hearts, which just gets pummeled overnight. But Metal Gear *always* falls apart in the day, which will likely be its undoing.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:21:43 PM | message detail
I know other sff matches this contest have still done fine for themselves, but sff matches usually have lousy vote totals.

Except you went against your own point when you said this contest has been the exception.

Besides, Mario/Warcraft and Mario/Madden were not that impressive in light of what Zelda and Final Fantasy did afterwards.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:21:43 PM | message detail
Mario for the win!
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Please nominate K. K. Slider (Animal Crossing) (Male) and Kazooie (Banjo-Kazooie) (Female)
therealmnm | Posted 7/29/2006 9:22:33 PM | message detail
In all honesty, I figured before the contest that Super Mario Bros. would get 43-45% on Final Fantasy while Legend of Zelda/Final Fantasy would be a 2k5 Link/Cloud affair, except for Final Fantasy being on top instead of Link. Given those percentages, I would think that LoZ could eke out an upset of FF although unlikely. I never considered Mario to beat Final Fantasy at all. Like I said, SMB/FF would only be an indicator of how well LoZ would do.

Really, even though I said before the contest that FF would benefit much more as a series than LoZ, I still felt that LoZ would do better than OoT did against FF, and I still think that way. Just a gut feeling, although it has already shown the potential to make that happen.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/29/2006 9:23:01 PM | message detail
From creativename Posted 7/30/2006 12:17:45 AM #355
Ulti, if you're so convinced Mario has a legit shot at Final Fantasy, how about a sig bet? If it ever had much a shot it should be able to get 45%. So I win if Final Fantasy gets 55% (actually let's make it 56% to be more fair).

In fact a nomination bet would be better...half the nominations of the loser chosen by the winner? (for some contest next year)

Thoughts?


I actually already filled my nominations, but a sig bet is fine. Mario with 45%! =p

(With my luck, FF will win 55.01-44.99)

~*ST*~
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/29/2006 9:23:46 PM | message detail
The Legend of Zelda 71.82% 79
Metal Gear 30% 33
TOTAL VOTES 110

What the..?


The total votes value updates slightly slower than the individual values. Sometimes you refresh in that gap and you get odd results. It's especially common when there are lots of people refreshing the poll results which stresses the system. It's nothing new:
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Megaman.jpg
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LordOfDabu | Posted 7/29/2006 9:23:47 PM | message detail
With user submitted pictures, isn't there usually a note on the front page who made it?

Do you think that maybe this wasn't a user submitted picture?
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The GameFAQs StarCraft Tournament of Champions 2006 Bracket:
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:23:57 PM | message detail
Actually, with your luck, Final Fantasy will get 60.01%.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/29/2006 9:24:14 PM | message detail
I'm curious how everyone would react if SMB ends up doing better against FF than Zelda.
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Nominate Nidoran F.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527160
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:24:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, I don't see any credits anywhere. I think this is a theme.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:25:30 PM | message detail
*waits for FF's theme of FFT sprite Cloud to Advent Children Cloud*

Awesome!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/29/2006 9:25:37 PM | message detail
Hmm. This is...painful.

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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:26:14 PM | message detail

Except you went against your own point when you said this contest has been the exception.


Point taken. But if there was any match where you really can't deny logical sff, it has to be Super Smash Bros and Super Mario Bros. They share many of the same characters and the same company fanbase. If one match should go against sff vote totals being high, it would be this one. Even in Zelda/Metroid, they're still two very different series. With Smash, you really have a main reason as to why it's popular existing in its opponent for that matchup.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/29/2006 9:26:16 PM | message detail
Oh wait. Mario with 44% baby woo woo!

~*ST*~
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Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:27:07 PM | message detail
I'm curious how everyone would react if SMB ends up doing better against FF than Zelda.

I would be completely dumbfounded.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:27:41 PM | message detail
Even in Zelda/Metroid, they're still two very different series. With Smash, you really have a main reason as to why it's popular existing in its opponent for that matchup.

Despite being very different, the overlap is undoubtedly larger. You could possibly argue that there was no SFF in SMB/SSB at all.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:28:04 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter:
As I think tranny said, Zelda's day vote isn't that massive compared to its night vote -- it's dominant at every stage of the game. It's not like Kingdom Hearts, which just gets pummeled overnight. But Metal Gear *always* falls apart in the day, which will likely be its undoing.

Good point about Zelda. But I do think Metal Gear's fall will be a bit cushioned relative to the past due to a lack of bracket voting this time.


Ulti:
I actually already filled my nominations, but a sig bet is fine. Mario with 45%! =p

Actually I meant for some contest next year (Spring probably, if there is one), not the next contest. A nomination bet would mean something a bit more is at stake I think.

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creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:28:55 PM | message detail
Oh wait. Mario with 44% baby woo woo!

Yeah, I was just about to post this. 44%.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:28:57 PM | message detail
No, I really don't think you could. It's the Mario series vs The Mario side series. SFF was inevitable.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:29:04 PM | message detail
It's hard for me to accept SMB/SSB having significant SFF (it seems more like Bowser/Kirby in that respect), if only because if SMB does respectably on FF (45% or so), that makes SSB unbelievably strong if it was signficantly SFFed. Yeah, it's the 4th strongest series, but it wouldn't just KILL every other series in its path.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Super Luigi | Posted 7/29/2006 9:30:37 PM | message detail
Come on now, Do you actually think RE would beat MG?
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:31:33 PM | message detail
Right, I can agree with that. Little sff is possible, but none? I don't think so.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Sir Crono | Posted 7/29/2006 9:31:42 PM | message detail
No, I really don't think you could. It's the Mario series vs The Mario side series. SFF was inevitable.

Yeah, because Mario always SFFs Mario, like Yoshi/Bowser and Luigi/Yoshi.

Or...Super Smash Brothers is strong enough to resist SFF, which is not a difficult concept.
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As you wish.
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:32:04 PM | message detail
If half the nominations is too much, then maybe 3 slots (or 1/3rd rounded down if there are more then 10 slots).
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Lopen | Posted 7/29/2006 9:33:04 PM | message detail
No, I don't think MG beats RE. But I also think Extrapolation is all but worthless in this contest. Look at those projected X-Stats... even in the cases without apparent SFF... how much do you trust them?
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Sir Crono | Posted 7/29/2006 9:33:49 PM | message detail
No, I don't think MG beats RE

...Really?
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As you wish.
Ngamer64 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:33:59 PM | message detail
Plus, Ulti already owes someone his sig through the next two weeks!

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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:33:59 PM | message detail
Both those matches you just mentioned, Leon, had very low votals relative to the other matches in their contests. Yoshi/Luigi was 9th lowest in SC2k4, and Bowser/Yoshi was 14th lowest in SC2k3.
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Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:35:21 PM | message detail
The Resident Evil/Metal Gear thing is what makes me really wonder about Zelda>Final Fantasy.

Even considering possible anomalies and non-linearity, RE being stronger than Metal Gear still seems odd. But, RE wasn't too far from Mega Man, and I could certainly see Mega Man>Metal Gear, so I still think Final Fantasy is the deserving favorite. Just not a big favorite.

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Lopen | Posted 7/29/2006 9:35:29 PM | message detail
Go back to not talking, Crono! Eyagh! Let the slip rest in peace! MG > RE! MG > RE!!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:36:35 PM | message detail
I can't believe this, but I think I may be agreeing with Lopen here. Assuming Zelda gets the tripling or more and FF beats Zelda, you've potentially got RE > MG and even SF > MG. But more importantly, there have been a lot of results that I just plain wouldn't take...SO > Kirby, Silent Hill = Soul Calibur, DMC = DQ (hell, GTA = DQ)...and so forth.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Sir Crono | Posted 7/29/2006 9:37:08 PM | message detail
I'm still not sure why people are arguing about Mario's relatively lackluster vote totals against SSB when it's already been relatively lackluster in the other two matches compared to FF and Zelda, but whatever.
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As you wish.
Super Luigi | Posted 7/29/2006 9:37:21 PM | message detail
RE might possibly beat MG, But SF? No way in hell.
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XBL Gamertag - SuPer MiKe 86.
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:37:48 PM | message detail
I think the good majority of us (including me) would take Metal Gear to beat Resident Evil in a hypothetical match no matter what happens from here on out.

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Sir Crono | Posted 7/29/2006 9:38:39 PM | message detail
You know, if you say RE can beat Metal gear, you kinda have to throw SF into the fray since, you know, they're about a percent apart.
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As you wish.