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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 333

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transience | Posted 7/29/2006 9:01:58 PM | message detail
this is gonna be brutal.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/29/2006 9:02:17 PM | message detail
Someone who knows way more about computers than me needs to explain that. In fact screw it, I'll fill out a feedback and ask Ceej himself.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:02:26 PM | message detail
Yikes...This...is not good.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/29/2006 9:02:32 PM | message detail
Metal Gear doesn't deserve this...it's actually might get tripled.
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Moltar Status: Wanting you to Nominate Shadow the Hedgehog!
Legend of Zelda vs. Metal Gear - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: MG (46/48)
cyko | Posted 7/29/2006 9:02:35 PM | message detail
almost 73% at the freeze?

do you guys really think that both Megaman and Resident Evil would be this close to Metal Gear Solid?

Final Fantasy is in trouble!! START THE BANDWAGON!!!

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please NOMINATE BAHAMUT!!!
or i will eat your soul.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/29/2006 9:02:57 PM | message detail
From SquallidSnake Posted 7/30/2006 12:02:26 AM #303
Yikes...This...is not good.

How long have I been saying that Zelda and/or Mario have a good shot at taking FF down? You people should listen to me more often.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 7/29/2006 9:03:13 PM | message detail
This is reminding me of Link/MM....
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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." ~ Benjamin Franklin
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:03:38 PM | message detail
Oh, and I still don't think that match means that Mario or Zelda has any less of a chance at winning.

At this point, anyone thinking Mario still has any chance of beating Final Fantasy is kidding themselves.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/29/2006 9:03:44 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:03:48 PM | message detail
If Zelda increases at the first update, I don't care if it's my favorite series... I will be the FIRST to use Snake's picture as an excuse.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:04:07 PM | message detail
How long have I been saying that Zelda and/or Mario have a good shot at taking FF down?

I believed Zelda. Mario still has none. Never had any.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
transience | Posted 7/29/2006 9:04:08 PM | message detail
I've been saying it for a month too.

ZELDA WILL NOT GO DOWN SO EASILY
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Yesmar | Posted 7/29/2006 9:04:14 PM | message detail
This is looking really good for Zelda. I wouldn't be surprised if it increased it's percentage during the next update.
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"Dropo! You're the laziest man on Mars."
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:04:17 PM | message detail
Mario never had a shot at taking down FF. Most have acknowledged Zelda had a chance (it was my gut pick), but that it was too small to matter.

But yeah, if it gets the tripling, I'm jumping ship. And unless MG brings this down quick, it undoubtedly will.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Lopen | Posted 7/29/2006 9:04:50 PM | message detail
I actually said in my writeup that Mega Man ~= Metal Gear. Why would this be so unheard of? I know games != characters, but you can't deny that Mega Man owns Snake, every time.

Still, Zelda's looking... interesting, at least. I think MG will bring it down though... Zelda isn't like FF on Board 8.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:05:08 PM | message detail
DAMNIT
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/29/2006 9:05:09 PM | message detail
Fact/Fiction: Mario ends up getting within 3% of what Zelda gets on FF.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
charmander6000 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:05:14 PM | message detail
Someone who knows way more about computers than me needs to explain that. In fact screw it, I'll fill out a feedback and ask Ceej himself.

Since the poll updates every two seconds I think so many votes came in at the same time just before the freeze and the poll froze before it can update the total votes.

Just a guess though
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
transience | Posted 7/29/2006 9:05:30 PM | message detail
nope, Metal Gear brings it down a wee bit. the day vote is gonna be what kills it.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2006 9:06:16 PM | message detail
Jeez, nice performance by Zelda.

---
Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:06:30 PM | message detail
How long have I been saying that Zelda and/or Mario have a good shot at taking FF down? You people should listen to me more often.

Yeah, you've been saying it, but mainly for reasons that not everyone else was comfortable with following. Like vote totals for instance. Apart from that, and until today, Final Fantasy has never shown any glaring signs of weakness nor has Zelda shown any massive indicator that it's the champ.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
rpgapzx | Posted 7/29/2006 9:07:04 PM | message detail
If anyone wins from this, it's SSB.

Can someone do X-stats for the top half of the bracket assuming we finish at 74/26?
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SC2k6: 41/44
Today: Bracket: FF Vote: FF
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:07:04 PM | message detail
The shift won't be as drastic as MG/KH, but Zelda is looking ripe for the tripling. It's looking very, very good if that happens.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/29/2006 9:07:08 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
44-----19------100.0000000
43-----161-----100.0000000
42-----445-----99.5505618
41-----634-----99.2113565
40-----1055----98.7677725
39-----1549----97.0303422
38-----2193----96.5800274
37-----2598----96.7282525
36-----2817----96.1661342
35-----3075----95.2520325
34-----3115----93.9325843
33-----3082----93.1213498
32-----3033----91.8892186
31-----2828----89.6039604
30-----2698----88.2505560
29-----2406----87.0739817
28-----2214----84.3721771
27-----1904----81.7752101
26-----1717----80.3727432
25-----1461----80.4928131
24-----1325----75.7735849
23-----1163----74.9785039
22-----990-----70.2020202
21-----790-----65.4430380
20-----628-----66.8789809
19-----516-----63.9534884
18-----430-----59.0697674
17-----288-----63.8888889
16-----254-----53.1496063
15-----200-----58.0000000
14-----151-----52.9801325
13-----94------46.8085106
12-----85------37.6470588
11-----66------50.0000000
10-----31------51.6129032
9------28------25.0000000
8------17------23.5294118
7------11------9.0909091
6------6-------33.3333333

Overall prediction percentage: 87.42%
Everybody with a score of 5 or less got the match wrong.

Great job today. The perfects and -1s both go perfect. As far down as the -12s have an over 90 prediction percentage. Overall, it's still slightly less than Zelda's prediction percentage. Nobody fell off the top 50 today.
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creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:07:51 PM | message detail
Moltar, I got your email. The zip is up:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/9

And yeah, this is pretty damn impressive by Zelda since this should be Metal Gear's best time. Though perhaps Meta Gear's past start/end declines have been a bix exaggerated due to the bracket vote, which is against it this time. However one would still think this is gonna get uglier for Metal Gear.

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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:09:11 PM | message detail
What was this division again? Ultima?

Final Fantasy 50.00
Mega Man 25.81
Resident Evil 23.94
Street Fighter 23.59
Mario Kart 21.62
The Elder Scrolls 16.62
Diablo 14.02
Shadow Hearts 5.86
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/29/2006 9:09:26 PM | message detail
Apart from that, and until today, Final Fantasy has never shown any glaring signs of weakness nor has Zelda shown any massive indicator that it's the champ.

The two are close enough to where any factor will matter. Vote totals and prediction percentages have both slightly favored Zelda. Now add in all of the bull**** NintendoFAQs crap over the past two years and you have yourself an upset waiting to happen. I'm just hoping Mario does it first, because we've seen Link/Cloud a million times already.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY)
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/29/2006 9:09:48 PM | message detail
XD at Shadow Hearts.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:10:00 PM | message detail
Vote totals and prediction percentages have both slightly favored Zelda

Right on the second, but you're very wrong on the first.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:10:17 PM | message detail
Note that the logic for Zelda beating Final Fantasy is pretty clear - that Ocarina of Time's percentage vs. Final Fantasy was representative of a series/series match, but that Zelda benefited from the Nintendo boost since then.

However I trusted the "more diverse fanbase" logic more. And Final Fantasy should still be the favorite, though depending on how bad this gets the final could be almost split in terms of pre-match predictions.

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Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/29/2006 9:10:49 PM | message detail
I'm expecting something different.

A Zelda/FF match that will actually be close.
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Nominate Nidoran F.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527160
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:10:50 PM | message detail
Should Metal Gear end at 26%, this is what the top half of the bracket looks like.

The Legend of Zelda 50.00
Metal Gear 26.00
Kingdom Hearts 21.68
Castlevania 21.10
Mega Man X 19.68
Halo 18.98
Fire Emblem 18.08
Soul Calibur 15.65
Silent Hill 15.53
Metroid 15.30
Pokemon 14.52
Harvest Moon 11.65
Suikoden 10.78
Civilization 10.03
Star Ocean 9.95
Kirby 9.01
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:10:58 PM | message detail
Mario has virtually no shot, never had much of a shot.

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transience | Posted 7/29/2006 9:11:00 PM | message detail
bah, Guy beat me to it. if anyone wants to play with numbers, here you go:

Zelda: 50.00
Mega Man X: 19.68
Suikoden: 10.78
Civilization: 10.03

Metroid: 50.00
Pokemon: 47.44
Star Ocean: 32.51
Kirby: 29.43

Metal Gear: 50.00
Fire Emblem: 34.77
Soul Calibur: 30.10
Silent Hill: 29.87

Kingdom Hearts: 50.00
Castlevania: 48.67
Halo: 43.78
Harvest Moon: 26.88

Mario: 50.00
Warcraft: 18.87
GTA: 18.70
Madden: 7.79

Smash Bros: 50.00
Sonic: 42.34
Devil May Cry: 24.67
Dragon Quest: 23.63

Final Fantasy: 50.00
Mega Man: 25.81
Mario Kart: 21.62
Diablo: 14.02

Resident Evil: 50.00
Street Fighter: 49.27
Elder Scrolls: 34.72
Shadow Hearts: 12.24


The Legend of Zelda 50.00
Mega Man X 19.68
Metroid 15.30
Pokemon 14.52
Suikoden 10.78
Civilization 10.03
Star Ocean 9.95
Kirby 9.01

Metal Gear: 50.00
Kingdom Hearts: 41.69
Castlevania: 40.58
Halo: 36.50
Fire Emblem: 34.77
Soul Calibur: 30.10
Silent Hill: 29.87
Harvest Moon: 22.41

Super Mario Bros. 50.00
Super Smash Bros. 38.24
Sonic the Hedgehog 32.38
WarCraft 18.87
Devil May Cry 18.87
Grand Theft Auto 18.70
Dragon Quest 18.07
Madden NFL 7.79

Final Fantasy: 50.00
Mega Man: 25.81
Resident Evil: 23.94
Street Fighter: 23.59
Mario Kart: 21.62
Elder Scrolls: 16.62
Diablo: 14.02
Shadow Hearts: 5.86

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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:11:17 PM | message detail
I also hope Mario does it first, but I guess FFVII vs Ocarina of Time was too scarring for me to forget. It was worse than any Link/Cloud, right? We'll see how today goes, I would love a LoZ upset, but I would also love the Mario one even more.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Janus5000 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:11:34 PM | message detail
Silent Hill 15.53
Metroid 15.30


Ha.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
transience | Posted 7/29/2006 9:11:37 PM | message detail
Silent Hill 15.53
Metroid 15.30

haha
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:11:45 PM | message detail
And really, if Zelda doesn't surpass Final Fantasy's percentage against Mega Man (or hovers in that area), I still won't be too worried. I can deal with Metal Gear being weaker than Mega Man.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:11:49 PM | message detail
Mario beating FF just reeks of wishful thinking to me. Does anyone really think that SSB gains more from adding SSB 64 to it than FFVII gains from EVERY SINGLE FINAL FANTASY EVER? That speaks very poorly of the FF games to me, frankly.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/29/2006 9:12:51 PM | message detail
Megaman X beating Halo like that....sorta makes sense?

No SFF in LoZ/MMX, anyone?
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:13:00 PM | message detail
Haha, SFF'd Mega Man X still beats Halo. That's awesome.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:13:00 PM | message detail
By the way, I don't really know how someone could justify taking Metal Gear over Super Smash Bros. now.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
Master Moltar | Posted 7/29/2006 9:13:03 PM | message detail
Moltar, I got your email. The zip is up:
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/9


Sweet.

And I really hope Metal Gear does something over the night and doesn't completely die during the day...but look at past matches...yeah.
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Moltar Status: Wanting you to Nominate Shadow the Hedgehog!
Legend of Zelda vs. Metal Gear - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: MG (46/48)
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:14:22 PM | message detail
By the way, I don't really know how someone could justify taking Metal Gear over Super Smash Bros. now.

Come on, all Zelda has to do is beat Mario with 63.60% and the two are equal...That's feasible...without SFF...yeah...
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
creativename | Posted 7/29/2006 9:14:55 PM | message detail
Looks like with the bracket vote over MG will make it slightly more respectable before Zelda runs it up in the day.

Don't think a tripling will happen though. Not that this isn't quite a peformance by Zelda.
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RPGuy96 | Posted 7/29/2006 9:15:19 PM | message detail
That percentage for Zelda/Mario isn't impossible, but it seems rather unlikely.
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 7/29/2006 9:15:48 PM | message detail
Good update for Zelda...
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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." ~ Benjamin Franklin
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 9:15:49 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be *too* surprised if FF thrashed Mario 60/40 or something like that, except Mario has the 'it's freaking MARIO" factor to keep it afloat. Then again, that didn't exactly do much against SSB, so I'm torn...
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/29/2006 9:16:40 PM | message detail
That percentage for Zelda/Mario isn't impossible, but it seems rather unlikely.

Well, that's assuming Metal Gear stays where it is. If Metal Gear gets tripled, then Zelda has to get 67.31% on Mario.

That's believable.......
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/29/2006 9:16:50 PM | message detail
RE > MG ?!
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin