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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 332

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:28:26 PM | message detail
Well, I'd still take it over Mega Man, so if it avoids an overperformance, I'd say...27-28% maybe...
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:29:33 PM | message detail
I'm more asking to see if people think it can avoid the overperformance in the first place...though seeing Metal Gear outperform MGS's percentage on FFVII would be odd to me.
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creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:29:38 PM | message detail
Talk of Final Fantasy/Resident Evil SFF is absurd. Any SFF would be of the "Final Fantasy, Zelda and Mario SFF everything" variety, which means pretty much nothing beyond intrinsic strength for our purposes anyway.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 7/28/2006 9:30:17 PM | message detail
Question -- in light of this, what do you think Metal Gear gets on Final Fantasy now?

A few percentage points higher than whatever RE will finish with. I'll then claim that RE4 was responsible for its series's better-than-expected performance.

Question -- Would the final look at least somewhat more unpredictable to everyone if Zelda were to match this performance against Metal Gear?
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creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:30:48 PM | message detail
Well, I'd still take it over Mega Man

Are you talking about Resident Evil? I don't see Resident Evil beating Mega Man at all. It makes no sense.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:31:15 PM | message detail
Why is it 'absurd'? Resident Evil is more or less a Playstation franchise, and I'm not convinced there's a Playstation game out there that FFVII wouldn't overperform on.

Again, if FF can't SFF things like Resident Evil or Metal Gear, what can it SFF?
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/28/2006 9:31:17 PM | message detail
This match is exactly 700 votes behind Final Fantasy/Mega Man at the half hour mark.
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Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
NewLib | Posted 7/28/2006 9:31:52 PM | message detail
If anyone has noticed FF gains have come to almost a halt. Now I expect the dayvote to hurt RE, but even a 73-27 loss is impressive for it.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/28/2006 9:32:30 PM | message detail
From charmander6000 Posted 7/29/2006 12:27:40 AM #350
So every match now has to have noticable SFF?

Of course. The stats topic likes to blame everything on SFF.

~*ST*~
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:33:09 PM | message detail
Are you talking about Resident Evil?

Metal Gear.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:34:36 PM | message detail
Of course. The stats topic likes to blame everything on SFF.

Don't generalize too much...I think most in here would dismiss this particular notion.


Metal Gear.

All right, never mind then.
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creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:35:55 PM | message detail
If anyone has noticed FF gains have come to almost a halt. Now I expect the dayvote to hurt RE, but even a 73-27 loss is impressive for it.

RE should stabilize overnight but in the morning it'll start bleeding again. It ain't finishing with 27%.
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KingBartz | Posted 7/28/2006 9:36:03 PM | message detail
g'night everybody.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:36:40 PM | message detail
Everything? I will admit that I at least *suspected* SFF could take place in every match this round, but aside from Zelda/Metroid most matches seem more or less SFF free. Though I'm still iffy about SMB/SSB.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:36:51 PM | message detail
If you haven't noticed, Final Fantasy is a day vote monster. Resident Evil isn't avoiding the tripling.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
YoAriel33 | Posted 7/28/2006 9:37:40 PM | message detail
Nobody answered my question. ='(
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:37:41 PM | message detail
It likely won't avoid the tripling overnight. FF is still rising.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:38:47 PM | message detail
Would the final look at least somewhat more unpredictable to everyone if Zelda were to match this performance against Metal Gear?

Yes, but I wouldn't bet on that happening. Metal Gear being equal or weaker than Resident Evil would blow my mind.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
TheCruelAngel | Posted 7/28/2006 9:39:37 PM | message detail
Yes, but I wouldn't bet on that happening. Metal Gear being equal or weaker than Resident Evil would blow my mind.

Pshht. It would be more Zelda's strength if that happened. :P
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creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:40:38 PM | message detail
Yes, but I wouldn't bet on that happening. Metal Gear being equal or weaker than Resident Evil would blow my mind.

Yeah, Zelda doing this to Metal Gear would definitely put big doubt in my mind. But only because it's highly unlikely to happen. Metal Gear isn't going to get tripled by Zelda.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:40:52 PM | message detail
If Zelda matches this on Metal Gear, I'm jumping ship. No way do I see Metal Gear weaker than Resident Evil. No way do I see it going 50/50 with Street Fighter, for that matter.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
NewLib | Posted 7/28/2006 9:40:58 PM | message detail
err I actually meant 77-23%. I just got my numbers confused.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:41:20 PM | message detail
Which is why I said I don't expect it to happen. If Zelda matches it, that's going to be Metal Gear being around the same level of Resident Evil. Nothing more.

And Final Fantasy's stabilizing now, huh? Looks like it has different plans.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:42:24 PM | message detail
23% wouldn't be respectable for Resident Evil. It would be right around expectations, but I don't consider that respectable.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 7/28/2006 9:42:52 PM | message detail
Looks like FF could finish this in the high 70s, especially if it continues doing this AND takes the day vote. Beastly!
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:43:35 PM | message detail
I have it on good authority that this is a disappointing performance!
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:44:27 PM | message detail
And, holy crap, I just realized the person in the lower right of FF's picture was a man. o.O
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:45:42 PM | message detail
Yeah...Vaan (?) is certainly extreme even for Japanese effeminate art.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:46:48 PM | message detail
Theoretical match...Kingdom Hearts v. Street Fighter. GO
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Janus5000 | Posted 7/28/2006 9:47:33 PM | message detail
...KAIN IS IN FF'S PICTURE HOLY AWESOME

Kingdom Hearts.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:47:44 PM | message detail
...Kingdom Hearts.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:47:48 PM | message detail
I'd pick Kingdom Hearts. Would that even be highly debated?
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Lopen | Posted 7/28/2006 9:48:49 PM | message detail
KH, but I do think SF does better on MG than KH did.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:49:28 PM | message detail
I'm not sure. I think most people would find KH/RE to be a much harder match, for one.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:49:49 PM | message detail
You say Street Fighter will do better on the next opponent, regardless of who it loses to, Lopen.

"Yeah, I'd take Zelda over Street Fighter, but I still say Street Fighter does better on Final Fantasy."
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:50:34 PM | message detail
I think most people would find KH/RE to be a much harder match, for one.

Considering I had SF over RE, I don't.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 9:50:37 PM | message detail
Lopen thinks Street Fighter does better on EVERYTHING!

...hell, he'd probably take Guilty Gear in many a match. Guilty Gear/The Elder Scrolls, anyone?
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Lopen | Posted 7/28/2006 9:52:42 PM | message detail
Dude, Ryu even said it. Seek an opponent who is your equal, only then can you improve. SF is always improving!

ES wouldn't break 60% on GG, believe it!
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 9:53:19 PM | message detail
Yeah, it'd break 70%!
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Lopen | Posted 7/28/2006 9:57:41 PM | message detail
So... I got to thinking, what would I definitely take Guilty Gear over?

Shadow Hearts
Civilization
Madden

That made me sad...
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creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 9:59:56 PM | message detail
I'd question Guilty Gear>Civilization, but maybe that's just because I grew up on Civilization.

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/28/2006 10:00:51 PM | message detail
Haha, 77.73% update for Final Fantasy. Awesome.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 10:02:19 PM | message detail
I'd think Guilty Gear would pull it out, if only because of the match picture. Civilization's picture was a parking lot.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
ExThaNemesis | Posted 7/28/2006 10:02:49 PM | message detail
I haven't been following the stats topic like I used to in previous years... what's the general consensus around here for Zelda/FF? Has everyone jumped ship to the Zelda bandwagon after its been out-doing FF so far?
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creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 10:03:24 PM | message detail
As I mentioned before, a few weeks ago I said RE>Chrono was something I couldn't take seriously. At this point I reserve it to "on crack" level ;)
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creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 10:04:28 PM | message detail
I thought Civilization's picture was nice...

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/28/2006 10:04:31 PM | message detail
At the 1:00 mark, this match has 12973 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Final Fantasy/Mega Man - 14072
Zelda/Metroid - 13697
Metal Gear/Kingdom Hearts - 13479
Super Mario Brothers/Super Smash Brothers - 12353

Final Fantasy's individual vote total against Mega Man: 10130
Final Fantasy's individual vote total against Resident Evil: 9618
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 10:05:11 PM | message detail
"I grew up on Civilization." -- creativename
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/28/2006 10:05:34 PM | message detail
Has everyone jumped ship to the Zelda bandwagon after its been out-doing FF so far?

Yeah, because Zelda hasn't had a path full of SFF matches.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
creativename | Posted 7/28/2006 10:05:51 PM | message detail
Yes, I know :)

I haven't been following the stats topic like I used to in previous years... what's the general consensus around here for Zelda/FF? Has everyone jumped ship to the Zelda bandwagon after its been out-doing FF so far?

A few murmurs of that, but to me it has the feeling of wishful thinking.
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