GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 332
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| Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/28/2006 11:16:46 PM | message detail |
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Score-Brackets-% Right 40-----27------70.3703704 39-----187-----86.0962567 38-----525-----84.7619048 37-----738-----85.9078591 36-----1224----85.5392157 35-----1834----83.0425300 34-----2542----83.1235248 33-----3061----81.4766416 32-----3376----78.1990521 31-----3636----76.0176018 30-----3761----71.4171763 29-----3693----68.1018142 28-----3586----64.0546570 27-----3242----60.3331277 26-----2930----55.3924915 25-----2396----51.2520868 24-----2045----45.2322738 23-----1630----37.9141104 22-----1298----31.5870570 21-----995-----29.4472362 20-----796-----25.7537688 19-----641-----23.5569423 18-----510-----20.0000000 17-----367-----23.9782016 16-----281-----13.1672598 15-----217-----11.9815668 14-----171-----12.8654971 13-----102-----8.8235294 12-----95------10.5263158 11-----75------12.0000000 10-----33-----6.0606061 9------29------3.4482759 Overall prediction percentage: 62.89% Everybody with a score of 8 or lower got the match wrong. Ouch, the perfects take a hard hit here for no real good reason. SSB certainly impressed, but it was still a fairly obvious pick. The -1s do realtivly well with a prediction percentage in the mid 80s. There's a small dip at the -2s but after that the prediction percentage decreases as normal. 12 people fell off the top 50 today. Donkey111, LOLdude277, hayato0, o1aznkid, soop92, McMoogle, BuutenksShinhan, LiquidZerox12, Rockin_Steve, cleansedbyfire2, Rezzman and the person who had SSB taking the entire contest and managed to stay perfect for the 26 rounds before it finally lost, NessInEagleland. --- "Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..." "All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..." |
| transience | Posted 7/28/2006 11:21:15 PM | message detail |
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looks like a typical FF match - board antivotes the crap out of it and
it goes up and up from there. a match that follows expectations? it
almost feels weird to see. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/28/2006 11:28:08 PM | message detail |
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Nah, it shouldn't. The vote pattern for FF isn't affected by a change
in start times, because the behavior pattern of the voters disfavor FF
at the start of the match no matter what time it starts. --- R.I.P. yoblazer33, murdered in cold blood by Sir Chris. Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/28/2006 11:33:15 PM | message detail |
| Good showing by RE so far. FF is screwed if LOZ does substantially better against MGS. |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/28/2006 11:34:12 PM | message detail |
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This is good, huh? --- Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/28/2006 11:34:36 PM | message detail |
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FF is screwed if LoZ does better on MG at all. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/28/2006 11:35:08 PM | message detail |
| Seeing so many blowouts of epic proportions, 25% isn't too bad >.< I expect FF to keep going up though, maybe upto 77%. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/28/2006 11:35:26 PM | message detail |
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FACT or FICTION: Zelda struggles to double Metal Gear. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros. |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/28/2006 11:35:41 PM | message detail |
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STOP PUSHING 75% AND SHOVE IT ALREADY --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/28/2006 11:36:07 PM | message detail |
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Fiction. Though Zelda won't go higher than 70%. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/28/2006 11:36:29 PM | message detail |
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The fanboy in me wants to say fact, but...I doubt it. If Metal Gear
avoids the doubling, I'd say it ends up supplanting SSB for 4th
strongest series. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/28/2006 11:36:30 PM | message detail |
| Completely fiction. Snake will get tripled, give or take couple of percentages. |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/28/2006 11:38:34 PM | message detail |
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If Metal Gear gets tripled, Zelda is winning the contest. I also agree with Leon that if Metal Gear avoids the doubling, it'll be the fourth strongest series for sure. Though I wonder just how well MG has to do in order for KH to be equal to SSB. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros. |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/28/2006 11:39:27 PM | message detail |
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It'd probably have to match what SSB did against SMB. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/28/2006 11:41:54 PM | message detail |
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Zelda is getting 65% on MG at the most. Bank on it. --- WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa longbladeofhiko, I hereby give you my official seal of owneditude.-Hogasm |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/28/2006 11:42:28 PM | message detail |
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All this talk of Metal Gear avoiding the doubling is making me lower my Analysis Crew predictions. STOP THAT! --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/28/2006 11:44:09 PM | message detail |
| If Zelda only doubles MG, well the match against FF won't even be close. I'd like to think Zelda can break at least 47% on FF. |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/28/2006 11:49:19 PM | message detail |
| And to someone who said all of RE came out for PS&PS2, don't forget about RE0. Not as good as the REmake or RE4, but still an excellent game. |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/28/2006 11:50:50 PM | message detail |
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Aaaaand, there's the tripling proper. That's enough for me. Goodnight. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| Xuxon | Posted 7/28/2006 11:52:29 PM | message detail |
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If Halo = Mega Man X and there was no SFF in Zelda vs Mega Man X, Zelda
gets 73.05% on Metal Gear. I'm seeing that as about the upper bound. It
could do a good amount worse on Metal Gear and still beat FF, I think. --- Take off every sig. |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/29/2006 12:04:05 AM | message detail |
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"If Halo = Mega Man X" I have a feeling that's not the case. I have a feeling that anyone who loses to Castlevania also loses to MMX. I have a feeling MMX is much closer to CV than Halo. --- R.I.P. yoblazer33, murdered in cold blood by Sir Chris. Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| Ayvuir | Posted 7/29/2006 2:05:27 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/29/2006 2:08:47 AM | message detail |
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It took 2 hours to get a reply and you deleted it! You suck. --- R.I.P. yoblazer33, murdered in cold blood by Sir Chris. Detective in Sir Chris' Police |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/29/2006 2:09:33 AM | message detail |
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Metal Gear avoiding the doubling makes me a happy man. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/29/2006 2:10:07 AM | message detail |
| I thought CV = Civilization for a while there...>.< |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/29/2006 2:10:35 AM | message detail |
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FF would be destroying RE even worst if the pic consisted of Cloud, Squall, Auron, and Mog... --- =DC= Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it. |
| Ayvuir | Posted 7/29/2006 2:10:59 AM | message detail |
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I realised what i said was stupid...so i deleted it --- Nominate Commander Keen SpC2k6 Current Points: 42/44 |
| Xuxon | Posted 7/29/2006 2:12:02 AM | message detail |
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I'm pretty sure Castlevania would beat Mega Man X, and there's a good
chance of SFF between Zelda and Mega Man X that would cancel out the
difference, anyway. --- Take off every sig. |
| Kaxon | Posted 7/29/2006 4:20:31 AM | message detail |
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I thought Civilization's picture was nice... Me too. That was one of my favorite pictures of the contest, on both sides. --- Nominate Aeris for SC2k6 |
| jonthomson | Posted 7/29/2006 4:21:28 AM | message detail |
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Prediction: Final Fantasy with 75.56% Ooh, could be a VERY nice Oracle score if things stay more or less as they are --- Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Phoenix Wright, Jill Valentine, The Boss, Ada Wong, Celes, Lyndis, Morrigan, Guru TBA, 1 TBA |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 4:22:56 AM | message detail |
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It likely won't, as RE has a tendency to drop off hard as the day vote begins. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Kaxon | Posted 7/29/2006 4:38:28 AM | message detail |
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I noticed that yesterday. you basically have to give Samus a free
pass to the semifinals in order to make it halfway interesting, barring
something freaky happening. Yep, I noticed this when I saw NGamer's contest bracket. But since Samus is winning the female side no matter what, I don't really see a problem with putting Zelda, Aeris, and Tifa all in the other half. But the thing is, you've got one Noble Niner who's just begging to be upset, and this is the last chance any Non-Noble Niner will ever have to do it. I'll go so far as to say this is the last chance the Noble Nine in its entirety will ever have a chance to be upset, ever. This is just ridiculous. Did Super Mario World make Mario the most popular character "forever", or Kingdom Hearts make Cloud the most popular "forever"? No. Things are always changing. And why has no one confirmed or denied my concerns about the Aeris matter? What about Advent Children? She was "Aeris" there, right? Actually, she's Aerith in KH2. I don't think she's ever named in Advent Children. --- Nominate Aeris for SC2k6 |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/29/2006 4:52:40 AM | message detail |
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But the thing is, you've got one Noble Niner who's just begging to
be upset, and this is the last chance any Non-Noble Niner will ever
have to do it. I'll go so far as to say this is the last chance the
Noble Nine in its entirety will ever have a chance to be upset, ever. Meh, Mega Man really has nowhere to go but down, at this point. I can see Bowser surpassing him with NSMB, SSBB, and SMG, and Ganon with just TP, or TP and SSBB. Not to mention Squall with KH3, or Vincent with an FFVII remake, or any number of other characters. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Radix | Posted 7/29/2006 4:55:08 AM | message detail |
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I'm fairly sure I remember seeing "Aerith" in AC but I can't really
remember. It would've been in the cutscenes in the FF7 recap --- "My guess is that if the Sea Shrine sank, then it sunk." - Fighter |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 4:56:36 AM | message detail |
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This is just ridiculous. Did Super Mario World make Mario the most
popular character "forever", or Kingdom Hearts make Cloud the most
popular "forever"? No. Things are always changing. Bull****. Link's dominance is picture proof that it's going to take a small miracle in and of itself just for him to ever lose again. And that's not even comparable to what I'm talking about. KHF didn't cause Sephiroth to win the contest, but it sure as hell ensured that he won't let Mega Man go 50/50 with him again. And Snake in SSBB will potentially do more for him than we've ever seen any character boost, ever. He won't be losing to the Bowsers and Ganondorfs and Vincents of the world after that. It's the same reason for wanting us to get to Link/Cloud before TP is released. Sure, he *might* lose after Twilight Princess somewhere down the line...but I really, really ****ing doubt it. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 4:58:29 AM | message detail |
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Mega Man has debateably been the most consistent contest performer ever.
There's no reason to expect him to lose in the future, *especially* to
Nintendo characters, where he already has the considerable edge. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/29/2006 5:02:27 AM | message detail |
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Mega Man has debateably been the most consistent contest performer
ever. There's no reason to expect him to lose in the future,
*especially* to Nintendo characters, where he already has the
considerable edge. Indeed, just like I said, MM isn't getting any stronger. Eventually, other characters will surpass him. Do you really think that Vincent after DoC, AC, and FFVII PS3 will still be weaker than MM? --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 5:05:22 AM | message detail |
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I'm not convinced that Vincent will even maintain his strength from
last year (bandwagon and/or potential overperformance on Crono,
anyone?), and it's still a far cry from Mega Man's strength. And while
I do think a FFVII remake will give Cloud the edge he needs to win a
contest or two even after Link has had a FFVII remake, it's not going
to be THAT big for him, or else *he* would be the contest favorite for
years and years to come. I really hope I'm not still here in the next decade or two to find out, on a personal note. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| _SmurfX_ | Posted 7/29/2006 5:05:35 AM | message detail |
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Dirge of Cereberus is regarded as being one of the worst games this generation. It will hurt Vincent, isntead of helping him. As for Megaman, he has dropped considerably. In 2002 he could equal Sephiroth. Nowadays he'd get doubled by him. And Sephiroth has been consistent. So how could you possibly argue that Megaman has been consistent? --- Smurf. The cream of SONIC Fanboyism. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 5:10:40 AM | message detail |
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Smurf, you may be the sole reason I don't take Sonic in any kind of upsets. You're my 'reality check'. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| _SmurfX_ | Posted 7/29/2006 5:12:52 AM | message detail |
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<_< Megman has fallen a long way. How can that possibly be denied? He'd get doubled by all of Clinkeroth now. He's no longer a noble 9'er. --- Smurf. The cream of SONIC Fanboyism. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 5:15:03 AM | message detail |
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Smurf, let me ask you something. Do you really think people are taking
you seriously when you say stuff like 'Sephiroth has been consistent'?
You know that's not remotely close to the truth, yet you continue to
play dumb. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if you were actually anti-Sonic at heart and only acted the way you do to turn people against him. -_- --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| _SmurfX_ | Posted 7/29/2006 5:16:40 AM | message detail |
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Well, looking at the X-stats. Sephiroth has always been pretty consistent. He gained a little in 2003, got sffed a little in 2004 and was the same again in 2005. Where's the inconsistency? --- Smurf. The cream of SONIC Fanboyism. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 5:18:01 AM | message detail |
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Sephy's gone from losing to Link with 43% in 2k2 to being on par with him in 2k3. That's not 'consistent'. And you know that. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| _SmurfX_ | Posted 7/29/2006 5:19:43 AM | message detail |
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That's because Link dropped considerably due to WW pics in 2003. And I accepted that Sephy gained somewhat between 02 and 03. But not hugely. No character is going to be the same strength every year, but Sephy is the most consistent of the noble 9'ers IMO, and should be the measuring stick. --- Smurf. The cream of SONIC Fanboyism. |
| _SmurfX_ | Posted 7/29/2006 5:22:15 AM | message detail |
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The last time Mario bombed against competition he should have blown out, Mario/Crono 2 happened. That's BS. Mario suprised me that he was able to pull out 55% aganist an opponent like Shadow. I expected Shadow to win that! :( --- Smurf. The cream of SONIC Fanboyism. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 5:24:24 AM | message detail |
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Even if you believe in 'pic factor', it's only so much even in the
absolute worst situations (and we're talking pure unrecognizability,
i.e. Solid **** and Resicrap Evil). And the X-Stats only matter in
Link's loss, which is arguably the most impressive performance of his
contest career (over 70,000 votes in a loss?!). No matter how you slice it, Sephiroth gained IMMENSELY in 2k3. His match with Mario all but confirms it (and let it be known that Mega Man actually outperformed Mario on Sephy). --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| _SmurfX_ | Posted 7/29/2006 5:33:29 AM | message detail |
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Using the x-stats calculator... --2002-- Sephiroth 56.78% 55,932 Mario 43.22% 42,571 TOTAL VOTES 98,504 --2003-- Sephiroth 61.60% 60,710 Mario 38.40% 37,850 TOTAL VOTES 98,560 Mario suffered a significant drop between 2002 and 2003. He went from beating to Cloud to getting equalled for half the day to Shadow. So, Seph gained because of KH, yes. But not significantly compared to other gains, Ness or Sora for example. And that was his only fluctuation. --- Smurf. The cream of SONIC Fanboyism. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/29/2006 5:35:47 AM | message detail |
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Here, let me set up the person waiting for the 500th post --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/29/2006 5:37:12 AM | message detail |
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Ness and Sora didn't have 'gains'. They were SFFed. You might as well
say Donkey Kong went from ultra-fodder to a midcarder in the span of a
year for no reason at all. But I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. Just like Mario/Cloud. You know the reasons behind that. But if I bite, and assume that was Cloud's legitimate strength in 2k2, then his gain for 2k3 was absolutely astronomical. Going from being projected to lose to Sonic to doubling him? And he had the same reasons to gain as Sephy. Either way, you lose. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |