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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 331

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:09:05 PM | message detail
I think people are forgetting just how hyped up Sephiroth's fight in Kingdom Hearts was.

And I had forgotten the "FAQ factor" for the Sephiroth fight. That isn't a non-factor, it could've meant something. That logic worked out for Vincent after all.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/27/2006 10:10:19 PM | message detail
Kidding aside, I thought Vincent could get a good boost from DoC. However the game apparently is crap so I doubt now it will help him.

The game is not one of the best releases of the year, no. It's certainly an above average game, but it won't be one that turns heads. It isn't like it needs to anyway. Vincent will get a nice boost from the game once it comes out. Arguing against that would be stupid.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:10:29 PM | message detail
creative, I think what HM is arguing is that, while the KH boost existed, it wasn't the sole reason for Cloud/Sephy/Aeris/Squall getting boosted so considerably. Am I correct in thinking this?

But it was pretty clearly almost the sole reason (outside of some speculative Cloud underestimation due to Mario Sunshine). This was gone over a looong time ago. And really, the evidence was overwhelming. It's not worth getting into.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:10:50 PM | message detail
The argument is that the KH boost itself didn't come from the actual roles within KH. I'm betting if the optional boss fight had been someone else Sephiroth would have STILL boosted considerably.

And yeah, it introduced them to a whole new audience, but the roles were really nothing. Are you telling me an audience with no prior exposure to Cloud/Sephiroth would vote them over Link because of a few cameos? And in such massive quantity?

...no. It wasn't the role. It never was. And if it was, Link has no chance at all.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/27/2006 10:12:22 PM | message detail

You can't be serious? And you can't expect to me debate something so old and obvious either.


Yeah. Someone thinking it was the bit role Cloud had in KH that allowed him to beat Link and the optional boss fight for Sephiroth that allowed him to equal him is far too idiotic for me to bother with.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:13:10 PM | message detail
But the 'FAQ factor' means the same thing as what we've been arguing -- it causes an influx of voters that wouldn't be on the site otherwise. Heck, Mario Sunshining Cloud wasn't based on the boost the game provided. That's the biggest example of the power of influx that exists to date.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:13:24 PM | message detail
Are you telling me an audience with no prior exposure to Cloud/Sephiroth would vote them over Link because of a few cameos? And in such massive quantity?

Again, those appearances were pretty hyped, and considered a huge deal. But I really don't want to get dragged into talking about KH1.

...no. It wasn't the role. It never was. And if it was, Link has no chance at all.

If you're talking about KH2, again, it doesn't make much sense for KH2 to help much. The reason for KH helping significantly is exactly why KH2 shouldn't help them much.
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Lopen | Posted 7/27/2006 10:13:53 PM | message detail
You know, I think people over exaggerate that "Kingdom Hearts Factor".

Squall got beaten crazy style? PS SFF. We've seen it between MGS and FF before.
Sephiroth didn't do that much worse against Link 2k2 than he did against Link 2k5... I'm not sure how much he really boosted, despite his Cloud match.
Cloud lost to Mario in a fluke, and if he went against Link I bet he manages to make it about as close as he usually does.

They increased? Sure. But not as much as most people think, though. If anything, I'd blame the much larger vote totals between 2k2 and 2k3 as much as I'd blame KH.

And I've not heard anything regarding DoC that indicates it's "above average". All I've heard about it is "it's crap". Not that I'm serious in saying it's not gonna boost him.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:14:38 PM | message detail
Yeah. Someone thinking it was the bit role Cloud had in KH that allowed him to beat Link and the optional boss fight for Sephiroth that allowed him to equal him is far too idiotic for me to bother with.

...did you have a bad day or something?

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:14:52 PM | message detail
What about Sephiroth/Mega Man 2k2 v. 2k3, Lopen?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:15:07 PM | message detail
Squall got beaten crazy style? PS SFF. We've seen it between MGS and FF before.

Another one sees the light!

But yeah, the Kingdom Hearts boost isn't as extreme as originally thought.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/27/2006 10:15:21 PM | message detail
...did you have a bad day or something?

I hate hearing things that are illogical and ignore all reason.

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TheCruelAngel | Posted 7/27/2006 10:16:11 PM | message detail
If you're talking about KH2, again, it doesn't make much sense for KH2 to help much. The reason for KH helping significantly is exactly why KH2 shouldn't help them much.

I'm confused. If the little cameos Sephiroth and Cloud had in KH were enough for Cloud to beat Link, then the ones Sephiroth has in KH2 would propel him above Link.

KH being the sole factor behind the boosts sounds iffy.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/27/2006 10:16:20 PM | message detail
Sephiroth didn't do that much worse against Link 2k2 than he did against Link 2k5... I'm not sure how much he really boosted, despite his Cloud match.

Didn't Link, like, go up or something?
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:16:41 PM | message detail
and if he went against Link I bet he manages to make it about as close as he usually does.

You can't honestly think he doubles Sonic in 2K2. That's indefensible.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:16:56 PM | message detail
Didn't Link, like, go up or something?

Just a tad.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:17:26 PM | message detail
If you're talking about KH2, again, it doesn't make much sense for KH2 to help much. The reason for KH helping significantly is exactly why KH2 shouldn't help them much.

You're talking about an optional boss fight for Sephiroth boosting him like crazy on the notion that he has been exposed to an audience that would not otherwise be exposed to him. If that many people were swayed by an optional boss fight, how many more will be swayed by his much increased role in KH2??? Not everyone that got exposed to Sephiroth for the first time voted for him, after all.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/27/2006 10:17:32 PM | message detail
hey guys, come on now, forget about discussing how much kh helped cloud and crew, and rejoice in the moral victories that are Kh winning an update and SSB...(m!) doing well today, yay!
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/27/2006 10:17:43 PM | message detail
I thought the idea behind the KH factor was that it made more people want to play FFVII/VIII/X, which brought them here.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:18:26 PM | message detail
People around here love to underestimate KH factor, actually. They just don't like it, no matter the evidence.

I'm not a fan of it myself, but things are what they are.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:18:54 PM | message detail
I thought the idea behind the KH factor was that it made more people want to play FFVII/VIII/X, which brought them here.

If that's it, it should work exactly the same for this contest. Though I *really* doubt it.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:20:10 PM | message detail
People around here love to underestimate KH factor, actually.

Well, there's reason to believe it wasn't quite as extreme as previously thought.

Except for Sephiroth anyway. I don't believe JUST being an optional boss that could easily be missed caused him to boost like THAT.
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Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/27/2006 10:20:12 PM | message detail
Squall got beaten crazy style? PS SFF. We've seen it between MGS and FF before.

I'm iffy on the idea of him getting SFFed much there, but it's notable at least. I doubt the match would be much different than projected if Snake faced Squall today.

Sephiroth didn't do that much worse against Link 2k2 than he did against Link 2k5... I'm not sure how much he really boosted, despite his Cloud match.

Yeah. Link's been pretty constant between 2002 and 2005!

Cloud lost to Mario in a fluke, and if he went against Link I bet he manages to make it about as close as he usually does.

He would have only done a bit better than Sephiroth in that match, which means something like 55 - 45 at the most. Putting him higher than that makes little sense.

And I've not heard anything regarding DoC that indicates it's "above average". All I've heard about it is "it's crap". Not that I'm serious in saying it's not gonna boost him.

The Japanese version is that way. Fortunately, Square is doing a crapload of work on the American version that is to be released here. It won't receive really high scores or anything, but it will be above average, no doubt. I would expect plenty of 6 - 7 scores. I have actually played it the imported Japanese version and it's not bad at all.

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:20:54 PM | message detail
If that many people were swayed by an optional boss fight, how many more will be swayed by his much increased role in KH2???

Logically, relatively few. Given that it's the same audience.

Not everyone that got exposed to Sephiroth for the first time voted for him, after all.

Conditional probability that if they were exposed through KH the first time yet still didn't vote for him, a second exposure will mean little to them.


Again, the reasons people believe for Kingdom Hearts mattering are the same reasons that KH2 should matter a whole lot less.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:21:52 PM | message detail
Given that it's the same audience.

Except it isn't entirely the same audience. KH's and CoM's sales didn't go up after KHII's release for nothing.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/27/2006 10:22:26 PM | message detail
Given that it's the same audience.

Too bad it isn't. I already went over that.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:22:29 PM | message detail
creativename, I don't think you're listening. The reason Cloud and Sephiroth went up is mostly KH's doing. That's not disputed.

What *is* disputed is the reason. Not every person that loves Cloud and Sephiroth is on the site every day. When you get a release like Kingdom Hearts, you get a game where fans of those characters are drawn to get it (based on the promise of cameos). When you get those people playing a game, you have a tendency to have more of them on GameFAQs than usual. It's a less extreme version of Super Mario Sunshine's effect on Mario/Cloud. It was the influx the game created, but not the game itself.

Sephiroth would have probably gone up even if he wasn't in the game, as long as Cloud was in it.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/27/2006 10:22:31 PM | message detail
Gah, KH factor! My most hated of all discussion topics!
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:23:35 PM | message detail
Not exactly the same obviously, but close enough such that it shouldn't matter. Especially for this site.

The difference between the audiences for KH1 and KH2 will be as nothing compared to the differences between those who played KH1 and FF7 (especially prior to them playing KH1, if you believe the notion that KH1 led more people on this site to play FF7).
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:24:24 PM | message detail
Conditional probability that if they were exposed through KH the first time yet still didn't vote for him, a second exposure will mean little to them.

blah blah blah you're not listening.

One exposure is not equal to another. If Cloud were the main character of Kingdom Hearts II, would you be saying it would have little to no effect on him?

Yeah. That's what I thought.
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Lopen | Posted 7/27/2006 10:24:27 PM | message detail
Oh, sure... Link may have gone up... with that Nintendo boost nonsense... but still. He's a measuring stick. And no, I don't really buy that Link 2k5 gets 54.56% on Link 2k3... but that's neither here nor there.

Mega Man/Sephiroth is the only thing that really jumps out at me from 2k2. Either way, it looked like Mega Man also dropped massively between 2k2 and 2k3... what's up with that? Did they release some game where Mega Man vocalizes his hatred for Kingdom Hearts or something?

Yearly fluctuation, man. Especially with a huge votal change between 2k2 and 2k3. Not saying they didn't go up from KH... but to say that they went up like 6% from it? Or whatever the figure is. Silly.
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/27/2006 10:25:21 PM | message detail
Gah, KH factor! My most hated of all discussion topics!

Quoted for F'n Truth.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:26:44 PM | message detail
Hey guys, don't look now, but there's an actual match going on right now!

And Super Brothers is starting to gain on Super Brothers again!
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:27:26 PM | message detail
creativename, I don't think you're listening. The reason Cloud and Sephiroth went up is mostly KH's doing. That's not disputed.

What *is* disputed is the reason. Not every person that loves Cloud and Sephiroth is on the site every day. When you get a release like Kingdom Hearts, you get a game where fans of those characters are drawn to get it (based on the promise of cameos). When you get those people playing a game, you have a tendency to have more of them on GameFAQs than usual. It's a less extreme version of Super Mario Sunshine's effect on Mario/Cloud. It was the influx the game created, but not the game itself.

Sephiroth would have probably gone up even if he wasn't in the game, as long as Cloud was in it.


Actually I think that is what the dispute is.

As for the actual reasons, there's different ones. The main ones being new audience exposure, and leading more people to play FF7.

Either way, the impact of KH2 shouldn't be much. I could be wrong and we could see Cloud/Sephiroth boost significantly again, but I think we'd all be surprised by that.

As for Sephiroth going up anyway...I can't say it's impossible, but I would be dubious on it. Again, that was one of the most hyped up boss fights around. And if you're a visitor to GameFAQs you're the type who pays attention to that kind of stuff. But we'd never know about something like this anyway.

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Lopen | Posted 7/27/2006 10:27:59 PM | message detail
This match is a buzz kill, I hate it. LET THE TANGENT LIVE ON!
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/27/2006 10:28:14 PM | message detail
yeah, the match went and become all unexciting once you started ignoring it. don't you think it has feelings, too? ssb needs motivation! not mindless, outdated discussion!
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:29:21 PM | message detail
This match is a buzz kill, I hate it.

LOL Wrongpen
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Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:29:49 PM | message detail
But if you're someone who has never played FF7, how hyped are you going to get over a Sephiroth boss fight? It's going to be something like, "Hmm...okay, who's that?" That was a draw to pre-existing fans of FF7, which strengthens the whole 'influx' theory.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:31:48 PM | message detail
One exposure is not equal to another. If Cloud were the main character of Kingdom Hearts II, would you be saying it would have little to no effect on him?

Yeah. That's what I thought.


Eh? I completely fail to see the relevance of this.

Again, it's about degrees. You're talking about an audience where many never played FF7. For KH2, they already know Cloud through KH1. *Entirely* different situation, and thus the impact should be expected to be very different.

If Cloud was the main character of another multi-million selling game in the US I think most of us would take him over Link, but that's neither here nor there because it'll never happen (until maybe the PS3 remake).

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:33:12 PM | message detail
But Cloud's the main character of his own movie! Link doesn't have that!

(The cartoon doesn't count!)
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Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:36:16 PM | message detail
But if you're someone who has never played FF7, how hyped are you going to get over a Sephiroth boss fight? It's going to be something like, "Hmm...okay, who's that?" That was a draw to pre-existing fans of FF7, which strengthens the whole 'influx' theory.

Plenty of people were quite hyped by that fight, including a large number who had never played FF7, if the reactions of media people at the time are any indication (as well as the little kids I knew of who had the game, were obsessed with that fight, and were too young to FF7 when it came out).

But anyway, even if the FAQ influx theory is exactly why Cloud/Sephiroth boosted, is still wouldn't indicate another boost. It would only maintain the old one, because the influx is of, more or less, the same people who were "influxed" the first time around.

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:37:45 PM | message detail
As for this match, I really hope SMB breaks 65% by the end.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:38:44 PM | message detail
I'm seeing 65% as the max for Super Mario Brothers at this point, and I doubt it reaches it.
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Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:39:06 PM | message detail
They may like Cloud and Sephiroth through KH1, but how much do they like them by? Sephiroth's role in that game was basically nothing, and yet you're arguing that it got people to vote for him. Sephiroth's role in KH2 is actually meaningful. By your analysis, that alone should get even more of that same voting crowd to like him even more and displace him over Link.

C'mon, cn. This isn't *that* hard to grasp.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:40:13 PM | message detail
Does this mean SSB could push 40% post-SSBB and pre-SMB Galaxy?

I'm not the biggest SMB fan around (I despise SMB3, though I love SMW and SM64), but I find that disturbing.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:41:32 PM | message detail
I don't know if Brawl will push up SSB that high, but who knows?
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Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:42:29 PM | message detail
I'm really thinking you're heavily overestimating the role that Sephiroth's boss fight played in KH1. I can't see that many people swayed by such a simple thing. I just can't.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:42:31 PM | message detail
By your analysis, that alone should get even more of that same voting crowd to like him even more and displace him over Link.

C'mon, cn. This isn't *that* hard to grasp.


No, that is not true at all. By "my" analysis, it wouldn't matter too much if they liked him a bit more, because the shift in voting characteristics for an individual would've been much bigger the first time. The second shift would be *marginal*, and thus likely shouldn't make a noticeable impact in the next contest.

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:43:50 PM | message detail
I'm really thinking you're heavily overestimating the role that Sephiroth's boss fight played in KH1. I can't see that many people swayed by such a simple thing. I just can't.

Hey, I couldn't either, and thought the people who justifyig Cloud/Sephiroth picks pre-2K3 based on Kingdom Hearts were loony.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 10:45:46 PM | message detail
I'm not talking about a 'bit' more. I'm talking about a lot more. Sephiroth's role in KH2 is non-optional. He actually has dialogue. I can't for the life of me see how anyone could like him based on KH1, but I *can* see so from KH2.

And to those who point at Vincent and say 'lol optional', I'd like you to sit back and think of how popular Vincent would have been if he had been non-optional and you got him at the first Mako reactor. He would be a Titan.
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