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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 331

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:18:56 PM | message detail
Why would Jay Solano not be allowed?

I could see CJayC not allowing Midgar Zolom or Nidoran F, but unless I'm missing something Jay Solano is a regular character.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:20:28 PM | message detail
He's still an obvious joke character, and Ceej might not find the fact that he's an N-Gage character to be in his best interest for contest purposes.
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transients | Posted 7/27/2006 7:21:00 PM | message detail
he most definitely is a regular character. it's not like people are nominating the left paddle or something. the entire reason for nominating him is that he's a real character.
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NOMINATE JAY SOLANO (Operation Shadow) for 2k6!
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:21:30 PM | message detail
...and why is there a bump, of all things, on the first page of this.

Anyway, with a hundred+ nominations Solano has some shot at making it. But since Ceej has never released nomination data we have no idea what the odds are of 32 other males getting 100+ nominations.

Anyone know how many nominations the rally counting topics counted for people like Kerrigan last year?
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:23:02 PM | message detail
He's still an obvious joke character, and Ceej might not find the fact that he's an N-Gage character to be in his best interest for contest purposes.

I didn't know he was an N-Gage character, but I still can't see CJayC not allowing him if he's just a regular character. It's not the type of thing CJayC has indicated matters.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:23:13 PM | message detail
Midgar Zolom is a real character, too, but chances are he won't be allowed.

To my knowledge, Kerrigan had around 70+ nominations from the rally topic last year.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Vile Requiem | Posted 7/27/2006 7:25:27 PM | message detail
If everybody nominated CATS, CJay would put him against Gordon Freeman. Mmm...somebody has to win.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:25:29 PM | message detail
I just checked out who Jay Solano is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Solano

I think this General Barton might've been even weaker - an N-Gage villain? Heh. (though maybe the "General" title would get him more votes than Solano...at that level of uber-fodderness, who knows what matters to voters)

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transients | Posted 7/27/2006 7:26:35 PM | message detail
General Barton is a wuss compared to the heroic Jay Solano!
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NOMINATE JAY SOLANO (Operation Shadow) for 2k6!
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:27:10 PM | message detail
Midgar Zolom is a real character, too, but chances are he won't be allowed.

Midgar Zolom is not a single character, he's a recurring enemy. If you beat him he respawns.

I believe CJayC had disallowed such characters in previous contests, but I actually don't see any such rule now. But it might still be in place.

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:30:45 PM | message detail
Alright, after reading that Operation Solano page that was linked from the wiki entry, I'm giving in.

I'm nominating Jay Solano (Operation Shadow) with my last male nomination.

I can't believe there's a Jay Solano ASCII...

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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/27/2006 7:31:41 PM | message detail
I just checked out who Jay Solano is.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jay_Solano


oO
When I wrote that I never actually expected anybody to use it to find out about Jay Solano.

I think this General Barton might've been even weaker - an N-Gage villain? Heh. (though maybe the "General" title would get him more votes than Solano...at that level of uber-fodderness, who knows what matters to voters)

Perhaps. We didn't actually find out about the side characters until the Jay Solano army had been well under way. BTW General Barton isn't a villain, he's on Solano's side.


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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 7:33:10 PM | message detail
That does it. I have a friend with an N-Gage, and I should be able to find an Operation Shadow copy somewhere around here. As soon as I can, I'm playing Operation Shadow.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:36:16 PM | message detail
Technically, for FFVII plot purposes, there's only ONE Midgar Zolom. It just respawns for battle purposes. Much like there are many Servbots and Pikachus, but there's really THE one.

I didn't know he was an N-Gage character, but I still can't see CJayC not allowing him if he's just a regular character. It's not the type of thing CJayC has indicated matters.

Let me explain what I meant. With only 32 male slots available, it's going to be tight competition. Let's assume Jay Solano gets 150 nominations, and that's on the brink of getting into the bracket. Let's say...Knuckles the Echidna only has something like 135 nominations. Do you really think Ceej is going to give Knux the boot?

I doubt it personally.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:39:37 PM | message detail
at that level of uber-fodderness, who knows what matters to voters

I'm voting based on chin symmetry. You guys?
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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/27/2006 7:39:40 PM | message detail
That does it. I have a friend with an N-Gage, and I should be able to find an Operation Shadow copy somewhere around here. As soon as I can, I'm playing Operation Shadow.

transience has a copy. I think he said he was willing to send it to someone if they had access to a N-Gage to play it.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:40:59 PM | message detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=919265&topic=25725605

190 posts. Oh dear.

TRE:
oO
When I wrote that I never actually expected anybody to use it to find out about Jay Solano.


Neat.


JackSparrow:
Technically, for FFVII plot purposes, there's only ONE Midgar Zolom. It just respawns for battle purposes. Much like there are many Servbots and Pikachus, but there's really THE one.

That's the way I myself would look at it, however it's somewhat a grey issue. Whereas Jay Solano is not.

Let's say...Knuckles the Echidna only has something like 135 nominations. Do you really think Ceej is going to give Knux the boot?

This isn't the type of thing I think Ceej would take a stand on. I don't see him even bothering to look at how many nominations Knuckles has in this example. (especially if he can't be bothered to check for Chrono mis-spellings in a contest where it'd be a divisional favorite)

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:42:52 PM | message detail
CJayC admitted in that same topic to tweaking seedings as well, so I think he might have a look around, especially when it's probably somebody he's never heard of before.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:43:16 PM | message detail
And CJayC obviously didn't think much of Chrono's chances anyway.
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transients | Posted 7/27/2006 7:43:27 PM | message detail
I'm in the process of seeing how much N-Gages cost. if I can find one cheap (ie under, say, $40), I'm buying it. and writing a FAQ. and a review.
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NOMINATE JAY SOLANO (Operation Shadow) for 2k6!
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:43:37 PM | message detail
FYI, I just checked and saw a new copy of Operation Shadow on eBay for $10 ($2+$8 shipping).
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transients | Posted 7/27/2006 7:44:36 PM | message detail
I got mine for $1.99!
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:46:18 PM | message detail
Also, this makes three out of the last four matches to surpass the former #2 in vote totals.
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transients | Posted 7/27/2006 7:47:27 PM | message detail
hmm.. what would people expect SSB to get on SMB, assuming no SFF? I'd say, uh, 30% tops. I'm confused by some of these picks - 55% for SMB? I'm with the analysis crew on this one in thinking that 80% seems logical.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:48:22 PM | message detail
Depends. How much weaker do you think SMB is than FF and how much weaker/stronger do you think SSB is compared to Mega Man? SSB could conceivably get 30% without SFF, I guess.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/27/2006 7:48:37 PM | message detail
Watch N-Gage sales triple due to board 8.
creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:48:44 PM | message detail
And CJayC obviously didn't think much of Chrono's chances anyway.

This was based on his perception after the contest started. He never gave an indication he even thought about this before. And he let Shadow Hearts in, so what he thinks about something's chances don't mean anything, except that he'll give it a 16 seed instead of a pure nomination based seed.


CJayC admitted in that same topic to tweaking seedings as well, so I think he might have a look around, especially when it's probably somebody he's never heard of before.

What exactly are you trying to say? That Jay Solano is more likely to be disqualified by CJayC than Midgar Zolom? Because that is almost assuredly untrue.

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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/27/2006 7:49:19 PM | message detail
Let me explain what I meant. With only 32 male slots available, it's going to be tight competition. Let's assume Jay Solano gets 150 nominations, and that's on the brink of getting into the bracket. Let's say...Knuckles the Echidna only has something like 135 nominations. Do you really think Ceej is going to give Knux the boot?

I think he would. CJayC kicked a series out for Shadow Hearts. Not only that he gave it a 7th seed. If CJayC took strength into consideration, it's unlikely to have gotten in and no way it could have escaped being an 8th seed. Suikoden got a 4th seed. Great series, weak as hell. CJayC should know its not 4th seed material. In the villains contest CATS got a 5th seed. CJayC has gone on record saying CATS is a joke character but he still gave it a seed higher than 8. Chrono Trigger has shown to be a powerhouse on this site time and again. The series didn't make this contest. If Jay Solano gets enough noms, I believe CJayC will put him into the contest.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:49:48 PM | message detail
That Jay Solano is more likely to be disqualified by CJayC than Midgar Zolom? Because that is almost assuredly untrue.

No, I'm saying that if Solano is borderline, he's more likely to be left out than put in.
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transients | Posted 7/27/2006 7:49:52 PM | message detail
well, I don't think Metal Gear would get any more than 33% on SMB, and it could be under 30%. I think SMB is decently close to FF and SSB is about equal to Mega Man.
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Draco1214 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:49:57 PM | message detail
If Final Fantasy gets 57% on Mario Bros., what would SSB have to get on Mario Bros. without SFF in order to be equal to Mega Man?
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:51:05 PM | message detail
How close is decently close? Because I don't see SMB getting 45% myself.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:51:17 PM | message detail
No, I'm saying that if Solano is borderline, he's more likely to be left out than put in.

For the reasons TRE went over, it's pretty clear that if Jay Solano gets enough noms, he will very, very likely make it.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 7:51:18 PM | message detail
After seeing what SSB did to Sonic, there's no doubt in my mind that it's at least the 5th strongest series, and likely 4th. Metal Gear is going to have to put up a helluva performance on Zelda to change my mind.
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transients | Posted 7/27/2006 7:52:51 PM | message detail
I think 45% is a good number. I can't see SMB being rocked, not after all the old series' have kicked ass this contest. FF has history as well, but it's not a series known for its history like SMB is.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:53:04 PM | message detail
If Final Fantasy gets 57% on Mario Bros., what would SSB have to get on Mario Bros. without SFF in order to be equal to Mega Man?

30.01%, I think.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 7:53:55 PM | message detail
If SSB got a great pic like it's had in the past, I could see it getting up to 35%.

But with DK and Ness...well, I think it's going to get ripped. I'd be surprised to see SMB under 70%.

(note that due to SFF being fundamentally related to fickleness of voters, I speculate that pic factor has the potential to matter more than normal in SFF mathces)

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Draco1214 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:54:30 PM | message detail
30.01%, I think.

Oh wow, the next match is going to be ugly.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:54:42 PM | message detail
I wouldn't say SFF is a matter of voters being "fickle." There's more to it than that.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:54:56 PM | message detail
After seeing what SSB did to Sonic, there's no doubt in my mind that it's at least the 5th strongest series, and likely 4th. Metal Gear is going to have to put up a helluva performance on Zelda to change my mind.

Agree.
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DGZFIGHTERS | Posted 7/27/2006 7:58:06 PM | message detail
Buy or Sell:

Zelda will be able to SFF Metal Gear to a small extent.

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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/27/2006 7:58:42 PM | message detail
Sell.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 7:59:58 PM | message detail
Wait, what? I don't think Metal Gear gets much, if any, significant strength from his Nintendo outings. That's like saying Mario SFFed Snake to a small extent.

No, it won't happen. Metal Gear's percentage on Zelda will be its legitimate strength.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:59:59 PM | message detail
If Mega Man = Sonic, and SMB gets 43% against FF, SSB would get 35.44% on SMB before SFF, for the record.

...Still not all that reassuring for SSB fans.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/27/2006 8:01:23 PM | message detail
Zelda will be able to SFF Metal Gear to a small extent.

..............

Why would anyone think that? What, is Nintendo capable of SFFing everything because that is what you'd be saying if you thought that to be even remotely possible.

Sell.


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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 8:03:01 PM | message detail
Unlikely situation -- how much does SSB have to get on SMB before you think there is no significant SFF?

Also, how many people think that Kingdom Hearts is being SFFed today? There's not too much talk one way or the other...
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steve illumina | Posted 7/27/2006 8:04:09 PM | message detail
Using multiple accounts to nominate more than 14 characters or the same character multiple times will invalidate all of your nominations.

Hope the Jay Solano dweebs forget this rule...

Also, look at KH...another year or two..another release or two...it will be able to beat series like Metal Gear...
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DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/27/2006 8:04:39 PM | message detail
Unlikely situation -- how much does SSB have to get on SMB before you think there is no significant SFF?

50.01%. And then I call rSFF
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/27/2006 8:04:59 PM | message detail

Also, look at KH...another year or two..another release or two...it will be able to beat series like Metal Gear...


...... No, it won't.

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 8:05:08 PM | message detail
If SSB could come close to avoiding getting doubled, I'd be pretty impressed and not think there was any SFF. If it gets under 25% (almost everyone expects more than this, even with SFF) then SFF should be almost unquestioned.

And I see no reason to consider SFF in the current match.
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