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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 331

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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:53:07 PM | message detail
I don't know just how much more popular he'd be. The "the fact that he's optional doesn't matter too much" side was pretty much proven correct. I think he'd definitely be significantly more popular, but just how much more popular could he be?

Anyway, what exactly are you getting at: That Sephiroth is a good pick for winning next year? Because I really can't see that happening.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:53:57 PM | message detail
A worst case scenario preliminary stats for this division:

Super Mario Brothers – 50.00%
Super Smash Brothers – 35.00%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 29.64%
Warcraft – 18.87%
Grand Theft Auto – 18.70%
Devil May Cry – 17.27%
Dragon Quest – 16.54%
Madden NFL – 7.79%

Dragon Quest beats Madden with 76.45%! Either way, it's looking like Sonic gets 30% on Super Mario Brothers before any sort of...SFF, I guess.

Based on Super Smash Brothers's current percentage:

Super Mario Brothers - 50.00%
Super Smash Brothers - 36.57%
Sonic the Hedgehog - 30.97%
Warcraft - 18.87%
Grand Theft Auto - 18.70%
Devil May Cry - 18.04%
Dragon Quest - 17.28%
Madden NFL - 7.79%

So...Dragon Quest is potentially worth 46.20% on Grand Theft Auto? Never would've guessed that in my wildest dreams.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 10:56:36 PM | message detail
And note that this doesn't take into account ANY SFF Super Smash Brothers may be experiencing right now. So we might have been seeing Dragon Quest > Grand Theft Auto.

Which brings up the question...Did SMB overperform on Warcraft?
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
TheCruelAngel | Posted 7/27/2006 10:59:38 PM | message detail
I don't think so... I have a feeling that DQ is more powerful than what we think it is.
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creativename | Posted 7/27/2006 10:59:45 PM | message detail
Well, if you believe in the contest laws:

GFNW
Metroid gets SFF'd worse than expected
Halo and GTA always disappoint

Maybe DQ actually beats GTA ;)

(of course I'm kidding)

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 11:03:31 PM | message detail
And looking at these preliminary numbers, Sonic would have to beat Mega Man with 58.33% for SMB and FF to be on equal ground, if I did my math correctly. Super Smash Brothers would have to get 64.71% on Mega Man, and it'd get around 70% on Mario Kart.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:04:15 PM | message detail
I don't think that the 'being optional doesn't matter' side was completely right. Certainly, being optional does not stop a character from being legitimately strong. But we have no idea how strong Vincent would be in the first place if he had been in say, Barret's position (though with the same personality, because people like that).

But that's the whole thing -- I don't think Sephiroth is going to win the contest, which is why I don't think that the role within the game itself has any significance. I think it got people who were pre-existing fans to come here in the first place. The exposure itself, to me, is really very little.

But if Sephiroth messes around and ends up winning, err...you heard it here first. <_<
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Lopen | Posted 7/27/2006 11:04:32 PM | message detail
Yes Mario overperformed on Warcraft. Yes Sonic overperformed on Devil May Cry, while we're at it! >_>

Eh, what does it matter? The stats in this contest are all but worthless... and no, I don't mean because we won't ever see another.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:10:20 PM | message detail
I just thought of something. Cloud and Sephiroth had cameos in Kingdom Hearts, which, being EXTREMELY generous, is *maybe* the sixth strongest series on GameFAQs. It's probably working hard just to make Top Ten.

Meanwhile, SSB is pretty much screaming, "HAY GUYZ I'M NUMBER FOUR", even in the face of potential SFF. Solid Snake is going to be in one of the most hyped game yet in the series, in which he is certainly the most talked about and anticipated character, in a fanbase that is much further away from his Metal Gear than KH's fanbase is from FFVII's.

CAN YOU SAY BOOST THAT PUTS KHF TO SHAME???
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/27/2006 11:10:55 PM | message detail
Wouldn't it be funny if this follows MGS/KH patterns?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:11:43 PM | message detail
...why would this match follow MG/KH patterns? This percentage won't be too far off from what we see at the end.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 11:11:47 PM | message detail
Based on this performance here, Solid Snake is going to be a threat to be feared to the Noble Nine outside of Clinkeroth.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/27/2006 11:12:08 PM | message detail
Oh, and Mario, too.
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Squall, Tidus, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose, Mei Ling
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/27/2006 11:13:07 PM | message detail
Smash Brothers is taking off some chunks of percentage right now.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/27/2006 11:14:20 PM | message detail
...why would this match follow MG/KH patterns? This percentage won't be too far off from what we see at the end.

erm, I didn't say it would, just saying that it would be funny..


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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:14:32 PM | message detail
I'm not saying the percentage won't fluctuate, but we're talking about a perennial day vote king against the monster of day vote flops with MG/KH. There's no way it comes close to matching that shift (it went from what, 63% to 58% in MG/KH?).
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
NewLib | Posted 7/27/2006 11:31:00 PM | message detail
Its sad that SSB is behind SSF, because I believe if it wasnt it would be the #4 game in the stats.

You cant convince me KH gives Sonic a run for its money.
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Where am I?
NewLib | Posted 7/27/2006 11:31:36 PM | message detail
err #4 series
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--NL--
Where am I?
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/27/2006 11:31:48 PM | message detail
Its sad that SSB is behind SSF, because I believe if it wasnt it would be the #4 game in the stats.

It still might do it.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:32:26 PM | message detail
Um...are you even paying attention, NL? Based on its percentage right now, it'll probably get #4 in the stats.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
NewLib | Posted 7/27/2006 11:33:28 PM | message detail
Yeah Im paying attention but I think Metal Gear could break this on Mario.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/27/2006 11:35:01 PM | message detail
It's possible. Depends on how far below Zelda and FF that Mario actually is.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:35:12 PM | message detail
I felt bold in saying it could likely escape the doubling. Unless you think Mario is going to falter greatly against FF or MG is going to do *really* well on Zelda (followed by Zelda giving FF a great run or winning outright), SSB has this thing well in hand.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:37:19 PM | message detail
And this is probably SFF (I see little reason for it not to be), but it's hard to tell. The votals are a little low, but Zelda/Metroid -- a match with perhaps the most obvious SFF in this contest -- had insanely high total votes.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/27/2006 11:38:06 PM | message detail
Well, the odd thing is that Mario hasn't been drawing in the votes the way Final Fantasy and Zelda have.

And yet Metal Gear/Kingdom Hearts outdid them both.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
NewLib | Posted 7/27/2006 11:40:50 PM | message detail
I like to think its SFF, because of where it puts Sonic more than anything. I can see Sonic doing maybe 2-3% worse than this on Mario.
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--NL--
Where am I?
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:41:49 PM | message detail
Well, outside of maybe Final Fantasy/Mega Man, the two haven't really run into any formidable opposition -- Zelda especially, looking at how it has had Civ and two SFF matches.

I'd imagine two upper mid-tier series going at it are a bigger draw than an elite/fodder match. Not to mention that the votes are just getting higher and higher as we go on. Zelda/Civ draws a helluva lot more votes if you hold it tomorrow than it did before.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 11:43:52 PM | message detail
I can see Sonic doing *very* badly on Mario after looking at SMW/Sonic 2. And like I keep saying, I'm not convinced SSB didn't overperform a tad in the first place.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/27/2006 11:48:36 PM | message detail
I somewhat wish Sonic was in SSB's spot right now..
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 7/28/2006 12:40:36 AM | message detail
It looks like the entire Mario series is managing what just FFVII managed to do...


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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." ~ Benjamin Franklin
YoAriel33 | Posted 7/28/2006 12:41:42 AM | message detail
Yowch. That makes Mario sound so... unstrong. ='(
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/28/2006 12:44:30 AM | message detail
And that's after any potential SFF. Theoretically, if Mario's getting a lot of SFF here and SSB 64 doesn't add *that* much to the series, you can make a case for FFVII > SMB.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
transience | Posted 7/28/2006 12:48:33 AM | message detail
I think I'm more surprised because this is the first time one of the big three has shown any signs of weakness. so far it's been nothing but dominance. the closest we've seen to a good match is freaking Mega Man / Final Fantasy.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/28/2006 12:52:58 AM | message detail
The fact that Final Fantasy nearly tripled what will undoubtedly be one of the strongest series in this contest is still scary. That beast has strength that nothing will ever be able to compare to.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 7/28/2006 12:55:24 AM | message detail
The fact that Final Fantasy managed 100,000 votes despite not tripling Mega Man is even scarier.

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"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." ~ Benjamin Franklin
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/28/2006 12:57:40 AM | message detail
Yeah. I remember Leonhart telling me that Final Fantasy was on pace for 100,000 that day even with that percentage and I was rather speechless.

There is something about Final Fantasy dominating its opponents by so much that is entertaining though. I love it.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
HaRRicH | Posted 7/28/2006 2:25:42 AM | message detail
SSB is amazing me right now. I'll wait until the day-vote, but right now SSB is making it look like SSBM > SMB3 is a viable upset again...depending on your perspective.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/28/2006 2:45:05 AM | message detail
"Did SMB overperform on Warcraft?"

GTA and DMC being really close seems right to me. I do, however, fear that this is SMB over performing on SSB. If thats the case, damn is SSB strong. Of course, to me it looks like there's no SFF involved.
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jonthomson | Posted 7/28/2006 2:45:07 AM | message detail
SSB is amazing me right now.

Yes. Considering the ****ing awful pic it's got, it's doing rather well.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/28/2006 2:46:20 AM | message detail
"but right now SSB is making it look like SSBM > SMB3 is a viable upset again...depending on your perspective."

Why? It's the original that is making up the difference. Frankly, there are just tons of people that liked the first and not the second... and that equals votes in my book. This isn't pure Melee.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/28/2006 2:59:19 AM | message detail
You are an idiot if you think SSBM is a better game than SMB3... in the end the better game/character always wins.

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Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 7/28/2006 3:00:41 AM | message detail
You are an idiot if you think SSBM is a better game than SMB3... in the end the better game/character always wins.

XD
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Arc the Lad > Shining Force
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/28/2006 3:08:15 AM | message detail
Hey, he got the first half right.
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R.I.P. yoblazer33, murdered in cold blood by Sir Chris.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
jonthomson | Posted 7/28/2006 3:10:05 AM | message detail
You are an idiot if you think SSBM is a better game than SMB3... in the end the better game/character always wins.

ROLF

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1634
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Phoenix Wright, Jill Valentine, Guru Winners Pick, 6 TBA
transience | Posted 7/28/2006 3:11:24 AM | message detail
the people got it right!
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/28/2006 3:13:16 AM | message detail
Yeah... even though it's not THAT great of a game, FF deserved to at least beat Contra.
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R.I.P. yoblazer33, murdered in cold blood by Sir Chris.
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Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/28/2006 3:15:34 AM | message detail
I speak only truth...

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=DC=
Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/28/2006 3:16:49 AM | message detail
You are an idiot if you think SSBM is a better game than SMB3... in the end the better game/character always wins.

SMB3 is the worst main-series Mario game, IMO. I could never really enjoy it all that much; it failed the test of time the moment SMW came out.

It's odd to think about how few main-series Mario games there are. There's the four on the NES, two on the GB, two on the SNES, and one on each of the N64, GCN, and DS. That's eleven total, and only three in the last decade.
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jonthomson | Posted 7/28/2006 3:18:21 AM | message detail
SMB3 is the worst main-series Mario game, IMO. I could never really enjoy it all that much; it failed the test of time the moment SMW came out.

lololololol awful 500 post?
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transience | Posted 7/28/2006 3:18:34 AM | message detail
ff1 > contra > ssbm > mario 3
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!