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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 330

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jonthomson | Posted 7/27/2006 6:26:30 AM | message detail
Match 27 - Super Mario Bros vs Super Smash Bros

This match can go either of two ways. Either SSB is able to hold its own against Mario (rSFF anyone?), or it gets completely annihilated. This isn't an easy one to get the line right on by any stretch of the imagination.

Mario obv killed Madden in round one, and to my surprise managed a quadrupling of Warcraft. That's pretty impressive, I wouldn't have backed Mario to even reach 70% on GTA, but there you go.

SSB tripled Dragon Quest in the first round and then, like Mario, surprised me in round 2, not just by beating Sonic (who I had in my bracket), which I always thought to be a possibility, but to do so comfortably with 57% of the vote. A near-20000 vote win is solid enough.

This is nasty to call. I think Mario wins, but there's the possibility for SFF to go either way. Mario could blow it out of the water, or SSB could rely on support from the many other series that are represented and keep it very tight. If I was calling Mario/Sonic, I'd have guessed around a doubling. Possibly a bit high, but Sonic's strength comes mainly from the earlier games in my opinion and we all saw what happened in the SMW/Sonic 2 match. SSB, as we've seen, is stronger than Sonic, so I'd pull the line down to about 60% or so. I just have a feeling this is a match where the picture could matter an awful lot. Super Mario Bros could easily have a lineup of something like Mario, Luigi, Bowser and Peach. Now SSB could have exactly the same, it could have Link, Samus, Kirby and Snake (lol pre-emptive). It could have Master Hand pointing to the Mario picture. We could see Roy, Mr Game and Watch, Nana and Popo and the yellow rat. My gut says that SSB will have a GREAT pic and keep it close. But lose.

Bracket says: Super Mario Bros
Favourites bracket says: Super Mario Bros
Vote says: Super Mario Bros
Prediction: Mario with 54.32%

Fun fact of the day: My Lost Levels FAQ is so popular, it's got just as many views as my review for Elite, a game that about three people on GameFAQs have played.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Phoenix Wright, Jill Valentine, Guru Winners Pick, 6 TBA
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 6:27:49 AM | message detail
Yeah.

I think a better option would be 48 males and 16 females. The problem is, he's asking us for an equal amount.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 6:29:49 AM | message detail
I can't believe people think SSB can keep it close. Screw Pokemon/Metroid, GTA/Warcraft, any other shock you can think of in this contest. If SSB can break 45% on SMB, I'll be utterly dumbfounded.

...it's a two-game spinoff series against every Mario game ever made. You do the math.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 6:30:41 AM | message detail
BUT SSB HAS THE POWER OF METAL GEAR! IT CANNOT LOSE!!!
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
jonthomson | Posted 7/27/2006 6:34:35 AM | message detail
it's a two-game spinoff series against every Mario game ever made

Er, right. Mario will draw 95% of its strength from four or five games. After that, there's a fair few moderate games and an awful, awful lot of rubbish, and most of that probably doesn't count at all as it's all spinoffs.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Phoenix Wright, Jill Valentine, Guru Winners Pick, 6 TBA
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 6:36:54 AM | message detail
Ignoring the fact that you're horribly wrong (I've seen people group everything from Mario RPGs to Mario Kart in voting for SMB despite the big hint that the name gives), it doesn't matter. I would take SMB3 alone to crush the entire SSB 'series'.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Phediuk | Posted 7/27/2006 6:37:16 AM | message detail
In the vote tally topic, Phoenix Wright and Lyndis currently have the most noms. Lyndis at least should be virtually guaranteed in a 32-female bracket.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Who Cares? | Posted 7/27/2006 6:39:02 AM | message detail
I think a better option would be 48 males and 16 females. The problem is, he's asking us for an equal amount.

That wouldn't be too bad actaully!
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Noms: Ken, Nightmare, Sub Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden(MGS), Knuckles, Sora
Chun-Li, Morrigan, Sheena
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 6:40:48 AM | message detail
Lyndis has 'bomb' written all over her...well, she would if 95% of her competition didn't have the exact same thing with them.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 6:42:30 AM | message detail
Someone should suggest that to CJayC. 32/32 would have a way overpowered half and a ridiculously underpowered one. 48/16 would at least have some more balance (even though 16 females with some strength wouldn't be very difficult to find).

Besides, it could eliminate the obvious "Samus runs into a wall of SFF AGAIN" if the bracket were set up like this, for instance:

(1) Link
(2) Crono

(1) Sephiroth
(2) Megaman

(1) Cloud
(2) Mario

(1) Samus
(2) Tifa
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
Phediuk | Posted 7/27/2006 6:43:23 AM | message detail
Well, no **** she'll bomb. She's from a niche handheld RPG released three years ago. But it's still nice to have an FE character in the contest.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
jonthomson | Posted 7/27/2006 6:45:02 AM | message detail
I would take SMB3 alone to crush the entire SSB 'series'.

I'd take SSB in an instant.

But seriously, apart from SMB, SMB3, SMW and SM64, I can't think of many Mario games that would suddenly make many people want to change their vote. Sunshine? The various RPG's? I can't see Mario Kart helping as that's singled out as a spinoff in the actual bracket. There isn't going to be a single voter that weighs up the major games from each series, leans towards Smash Bros, then SUDDENLY remembers Mario Superstar Baseball and changes their mind.

Still, we'll see tomorrow, won't we :-)
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Phoenix Wright, Jill Valentine, Guru Winners Pick, 6 TBA
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 6:46:00 AM | message detail
I wouldn't hesitate in taking SMB3, myself. It'd beat SSBM alone, no doubt about that, and the difference SSB would make would be minimal at best.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 6:48:26 AM | message detail
Samus/Mega Man is my most anticipated Noble Nine match as of right now. I really want Ceej to set it up, because I *really* think Mega has a fantastic shot. Mega Man/Yoshi being one of the big reasons...

Everything else seems really 'meh' to me. Mario/Crono and Samus/Crono? Unless Crono starts mysteriously boosting again, I can't see it. Mega/Sonic? Saw it last time, still a coin flip but not as fun to me. Snake v. anyone? Go talk to me after MGS4/SSBB, or maybe hope Sonic bombs or something.

I don't even care who wins Mega/Samus. Just let me see the percentages.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 6:50:33 AM | message detail
Megaman almost dropped the soap against SONIC after pounding the crap of Yoshi like he did. No way he even comes close to Samus.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/27/2006 6:51:51 AM | message detail
I'm not talking about the matchup in terms of indirect strength. I think Samus is clearly stronger. However, we have seen in the past that Mega Man is a Nintendo character in the eyes of the voters. What does Metroid seem to struggle with most...?
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:07:45 AM | message detail
SSB will not break 40%. Nintendo SFF is always the worst kind of SFF and it's ****ing Mario SSB is up against. I'd expect a tripling.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
meche313 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:39:22 AM | message detail
But why are people so sure that SSB will be SFF?

I don't think SSB can rSFF SMB, but I wouldn't be to sure on SSB getting blown out of the water.
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“Impossible is a word people use to make themselves feel better when they quit.” - Vyse
Currently playing: Zelda: Alttp, Donkey Kong Country, Rogue Squadron II. Resident Evil: Code Veronica X, Kirby SuperStar
Draco1214 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:45:22 AM | message detail
From: meche313 | Posted: 7/27/2006 7:39:22 AM | Message Detail
But why are people so sure that SSB will be SFF?


Because it's up against Mario. And we all know what Mario does to Nintendo opponents.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 7:47:34 AM | message detail
And by the way, sweet Jesus, people are really mass-nominating NidoranF? Pikachu and Mewtwo are definitely eligible, because you can designate THE Pikachu and THE Mewtwo, but there's no THE NidoranF. It's a lot closer to a random enemy.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/27/2006 7:55:17 AM | message detail
Nidoran F vs. Jay Solano: who wins?
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith
TessaTestarossa | Posted 7/27/2006 7:57:09 AM | message detail
Slow, that's not stopping us from nominating Midgar Zolom is it?
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Nominate JAY SOLANO, MIDGAR ZOLOM, and NIDORAN F
Draco1214 | Posted 7/27/2006 8:02:23 AM | message detail
Wow, Metal Gear is really dropping in percentage. It's match with Zelda is going to be ugly.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
charmander6000 | Posted 7/27/2006 8:04:40 AM | message detail
I know, Mewtwo better not get snubbed because of this.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Kaxon | Posted 7/27/2006 8:05:33 AM | message detail
So, do people think that the Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Mario thing means we have another TOC, or does it just mean they have automatic passes into the contest? I'm really hoping it's the latter.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
HaRRicH | Posted 7/27/2006 8:14:45 AM | message detail
I hope it's a 64-bracket (that's NOT designated by ##-male and ##-female, but instead just the 64 most nominated), and the winner gets to face Mario, Sephiroth, Cloud, and Link in a gauntlet (in that order).
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 8:17:57 AM | message detail
Given the wording, it's obviously automatic passes into the contest.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
Kaxon | Posted 7/27/2006 8:36:48 AM | message detail
I hope Slow's right. I hate the idea of a gauntlet even more than last year's TOC.
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/27/2006 8:50:41 AM | message detail
I fear the Prince's lack of a namesake is going to hurt him. I've seen people nominate him as "The Prince of Persia," "The Prince," and "Prince of Persia." The only thing I think that might save him is having to enter the game/series that they're from.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/27/2006 8:53:29 AM | message detail
Just out of curiosity, what does the stat topic think of the ToC last year? I personally loved it.
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 8:55:19 AM | message detail
I didn't like it at all. As I just said in another topic:

Just look at this contest. The funniest part of it was to see Zelda, Mario and FF try and outdo each other, building up to climactic final matches. Last year there was no such build-up. Link beat Cloud and Sephiroth right off the bat, and that was it. Not to mention, we went through two months of regular bracket, and what's the big payoff? Mario getting the Midgar Zolom treatment from Sephiroth.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
charmander6000 | Posted 7/27/2006 8:55:45 AM | message detail
Most of us liked it, but only as a one time thing.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Big Bob | Posted 7/27/2006 8:57:15 AM | message detail
I liked the idea of the ToC, since it made leverage for more characters to make the field, adding unpredictability, and the winner of the main field was given the chance to take down Sephiroth. And we already knew that it was Link > Cloud > Sephiroth anyway.
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This space reserved for a new sig.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/27/2006 8:58:47 AM | message detail
I liked it because Clinkeroth would've steamrolled over the main bracket. It would've made the contest more predictable.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/27/2006 8:59:01 AM | message detail
Just look at this contest. The funniest part of it was to see Zelda, Mario and FF try and outdo each other, building up to climactic final matches. Last year there was no such build-up. Link beat Cloud and Sephiroth right off the bat, and that was it. Not to mention, we went through two months of regular bracket, and what's the big payoff? Mario getting the Midgar Zolom treatment from Sephiroth.

Yes, but I would have enjoyed this contest more had there not been such preposterous blowouts. The ToC was a fabulous idea, I thought. Blowouts are fun, yeah, but only to a certain degree; I'd much have a less predictable bracket of midcarders and fodder than a blowout-fest where nobody comes within 25% of the top contenders. That's just... boring to me.

That said, bringing back the ToC in its current form wouldn't work. I absolutely loved the idea (I think Ngamer suggested it awhile ago) of a non-Noble Nine bracket, with the winner going through a gauntlet of all the Noble Niners. It would never happen, of course, but it would be so much fun to have a much more unpredictable contest.
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This was Ed Bellis.
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 8:59:23 AM | message detail
Yeah, Yuri, Jin and Manny sure showed them who was boss!

A popularity contest should have every popular entrant in it, and every one of them should be on the same level (minus seeding).
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/27/2006 8:59:51 AM | message detail
Just look at this contest. The funniest part of it was to see Zelda, Mario and FF try and outdo each other, building up to climactic final matches. Last year there was no such build-up. Link beat Cloud and Sephiroth right off the bat, and that was it. Not to mention, we went through two months of regular bracket, and what's the big payoff? Mario getting the Midgar Zolom treatment from Sephiroth.

Meh... I don't really see that as entertaining, sure it's cool to see who's doing what and everything, but I'd rather have more debateable and hopefully close matches than seeing the top dogs in the contest. I found the funnest part of this contest to be pre-contest, as well as CV's run and other things like that. Unless you actually meant to spell "funniest" in which case this contest has never made me actually laugh, nor will one ever!

The only reason I'm against the ToC is because where the crunk do you stop? It just gets to the point where it's completely ridiculous, and the ToC is the main field. Well provided we stick around for about 50 more contests and Ceej keeps running them! But you get the point.... the best bracket has shown to be able to take place without Clinkeroth in the field, and I don't particularly like the idea of them being removed or put back into it.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
voltch | Posted 7/27/2006 9:02:03 AM | message detail
what's the poin of removing the strongest characters from he main field.

it's not exactly hose characters fault that they are so strong.
i mean every competitive event has someone who dominates for almost 10 years.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
Riuvya | Posted 7/27/2006 9:03:22 AM | message detail
The point of removing them is so its not so predictable. Its obvious that Clinkeroth is always going to be in the semi's, accompanied by probably Mario.

There still in this contest though
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Ayvuir..but BACKWARDS!
Commander Keen is my *****
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 9:05:49 AM | message detail
And if you remove them? You're going to have Samus, Crono, and two out of Megaman/Sonic/Snake. SUCH UNPREDICTABILITY.

In the end, there's not much difference between Clinkeroth beating fodder until they ram into each other and Mario, Samus and Crono doing the same. Last year's bracket wasn't unpredictable because Clinkeroth was out of it, it was because CJayC tried very hard to give us good matches.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
voltch | Posted 7/27/2006 9:05:55 AM | message detail
it will take ten years before those characters are deposed.

so we should wai for the moment right?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
Who Cares? | Posted 7/27/2006 9:10:01 AM | message detail
I felt the ToC was a good one-time thing, I'd like to see them back in the main field again this year, even though they'll streamroll everything.
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Noms: Ken, Nightmare, Sub Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden(MGS), Knuckles, Sora
Chun-Li, Morrigan, Sheena, Cammy, Presea
AmazingKirby | Posted 7/27/2006 9:11:22 AM | message detail
Whoa, there's still a contest happening now!

Anyway, the vote totals of this match have passed FF/Mega Man.
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caps
YoAriel33 | Posted 7/27/2006 9:15:21 AM | message detail
I agree with Slow. Last year, CJayC gave us a bracket with many debated matches through the first three rounds. Removing Clinkeroth won't make the last matches that much more exciting, but including them won't suddenly cause the first 4/5 of a given contest to suck. It all depends on the match-ups we get in the earlier rounds.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 9:46:17 AM | message detail
Exactly. We may not have had, say, matches like Sora/Alucard to hype, but CJayC could have arranged similar matches higher in the pecking order was Clinkeroth there.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
Nominate_Tails | Posted 7/27/2006 9:56:43 AM | message detail
I hope we will get a 32 Males bracket and a 32 female bracket.

Because then every male won't own every female and that will give us more unpredictable matches.

And then my "Samus MUST die!" bias won't hurt my bracket. And to be honest I've no idea who's going to win in a Crono, Snake, Megaman, Sonic fourpack. Every one of them have something speaking for them:

Crono: Well he faced Mario last year, but Megaman did a close match and Crono might be even weaker this year.

Snake: Ahem it would be a real upset, but which character has the most promising games coming up for hype? MGS4 and SSBB will be better than any new Sonic or Megaman.

Sonic: He have had a new great game since the last contest, and if Crono has gotten weaker than he can win over him.

Megaman: If Crono has gotten weaker, then Megaman should be the favourite.
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Tails would nominate you for the next character contest if he could.
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 10:00:50 AM | message detail
Makes me think, why is there so much hype for a potential FF7 remake on PS3? Have news been leaked or something?
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
Slowflake | Posted 7/27/2006 10:05:15 AM | message detail
And speaking of major releases for elite characters, I just realized that if the October 2nd rumor for the Wii/TP was true, then... well, I don't need to spell it out for you. And transitivity will definitely go to hell in whatever sections of the bracket Link and Zelda (and possibly Ganondorf if he's still in by that time) land in. Oh joy.
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i thought people on gamefaqs had good taste in games i guess i was wrong -EstUmbra
Oooh... Yeah... I need... condom... sixty nine!! -IENJOYHAM
YoAriel33 | Posted 7/27/2006 10:20:11 AM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts has broken 40%!

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!
Don't be shy, let the music inside. And dance, dance, dance!

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!
See the sign? Can you reach it in time? And tap, tap, tap?

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!
It's all the same, if you've got steady aim. Just zap, zap, zap!

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!
Count him in so he'll know to begin to drum, drum, drum!

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!
Don't dilly-dally, it's your big finale! Sha-la-la!

Swim this way, we'll dance and we'll play now.
It's very easy, come on in! Just take a chance and shake a fin!
Swim along, just join in the song.
A musical for everyone to have a lot of finny fun.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/27/2006 10:21:19 AM | message detail
Since most of these comments have been on today's match, I think I can safely say that it's very enjoyable to watch MG's percentage take a beating as the day goes on. Also, the "not noticing the voting day/night shifts" thing, while it seemed to be the norm early contest, doesn't seem to apply all the time, and especially here.


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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb