GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 330
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| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 9:37:21 PM | message detail |
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Around 60% overnight, I mean. It's probably going to keep dropping. This is just where I didn't want KH to land -- in inconclusive territory. How much does MG have to keep on it to maintain FE > Halo, again? --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:38:17 PM | message detail |
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whoa, I like the new message on the updater: Click on the TIME field in order to see the vote and percentage totals for each entrant by update. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/26/2006 9:39:25 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I too found it informative and aesthetically pleasing! --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 9:39:39 PM | message detail |
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Oh, sweet. I didn't even catch that before. That makes spikes a little easier to notice. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:39:52 PM | message detail |
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and it looks like this will get down to about 61% or so before it
really stabilizes. with a nice KH day vote this could go to about 57%..
I doubt FE is anything close to KH for a day vote and it did something
similar. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:40:42 PM | message detail |
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you didn't know about that? the percentage by update is an awesome feature. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/26/2006 9:41:47 PM | message detail |
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Hey guys, let's all laugh at Leon for being Leon. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Master Moltar | Posted 7/26/2006 9:42:43 PM | message detail |
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and it looks like this will get down to about 61% or so before it
really stabilizes. with a nice KH day vote this could go to about 57% OH LAWD TRANNY I HOPE U RITE! Oh wow, I completely forgot about the percentage by time feature! --- Moltar Status: Wanting you to Nominate Shadow the Hedgehog! Metal Gear vs. Kingdom Hearts - Bracket: MG - Vote: MG (34/36) |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 9:42:47 PM | message detail |
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From the 00:40 mark, Metal Gear lost 3.17% against Fire Emblem, and 3.21% against Soul Calibur. Pretty consistent day vote bombing there! If that's any indication, Metal Gear should finish with around 59%, and that's assuming Kingdom Hearts won't do better with the day vote than that. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:43:45 PM | message detail |
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think about KH vs. SC and the day vote... this should be more than 3%. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/26/2006 9:43:58 PM | message detail |
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Good thing my oracle is 59%, huh? --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 9:44:19 PM | message detail |
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I wonder how much worse it would bomb if we had kept the old start
time. Even with a lack of day vote trend, Metal Gear somehow always
finds a way to bomb the day vote. At least Snake in SSBB will finally limit that trend to a degree. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| meche313 | Posted 7/26/2006 9:45:39 PM | message detail |
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<__< The new size of that sentence will help a couple of people here who don't have the best reading comprehension, and already Leon proves it. --- “Impossible is a word people use to make themselves feel better when they quit.” - Vyse Currently playing: Zelda: Alttp, Donkey Kong Country, Rogue Squadron II. Resident Evil: Code Veronica X, Kirby SuperStar |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 9:46:08 PM | message detail |
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Well, Kingdom Hearts's day vote against Soul Calibur wasn't that large,
especially when you compare to what it did against Castlevania. It was
only around a 1800 vote swing there. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 9:47:32 PM | message detail |
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And Kingdom Hearts gained about 2.5% against StarCraft. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 9:48:26 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, I was actually impressed with Soul Calibur as being able to hang
with KH's day vote. This shouldn't be *too* bad, though it will
certainly be MG's biggest drop in percentage. ...excluding Zelda/MG, I think. That one is going to be BAD. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:49:25 PM | message detail |
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yeah, just about 1% exactly. it stayed pretty constant with Starcraft
until its crazy night vote kicked in as well. that's Starcraft though,
I don't feel good trying to learn anything in a Starcraft match. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 9:50:48 PM | message detail |
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Well, the strange thing about Zelda matches is that there's hardly been
ANY fluctuation at all. Very little percentage shifting. It should've
done better against Metroid, really, since it doesn't have a great day
vote. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| Mister Mario | Posted 7/26/2006 9:50:48 PM | message detail |
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So what happens to the guru contest? If we're doing noms now, we cant nomminate the winners chosen thing. D: --- 3rd overall in the "10 Best Games Ever" contest (Score 11/27%). 15th overall in the "Summer 2005 Character Contest" (Score 204). |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 9:51:48 PM | message detail |
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Depends on how long CJayC lets nominations run. I'd imagine they should last beyond the contest. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 9:51:58 PM | message detail |
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Save at least one male and one female nomination. This contest is going
to be over in less than a week, people can wait to see who's going to
win. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/26/2006 9:53:00 PM | message detail |
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There's no way nominations end before this contest does.... and I have
to get up early in the morning. *Sigh* Such a horrible life I lead. I
can't sleep until 1 in the afternoon as usual. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:53:07 PM | message detail |
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I don't think Zelda has a killer day vote, really... well,
comparatively anyway. Zelda seems dominant 24 hours a day, whereas KH
shows weakness during the night and strength during the day. *checks Snake/Mario* hmm, Snake got it as low as 53.5% and Mario got it to almost 58% before the second night vote. MGS doesn't have that second night vote to fall back on this time though, so maybe it'll be bigger. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 9:53:55 PM | message detail |
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The day vote was what buried Cloud in the last two matches. Which is strange, because FFVII usually has a good day vote. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 9:54:37 PM | message detail |
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MGS doesn't have the second night vote, but the trends are less
pronounced. It's just that even with less pronounced trends, MG finds a
way to bomb. Under the old system it would have probably started out
over the doubling. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 9:57:43 PM | message detail |
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Link/Cloud 2k5 was so weird to me, because Cloud actually got the lead
overnight but still ended up losing by more than last time. I thought
for sure that the match would end up at least closer at the time, but
it just turned out that Link did worse in the night. Cloud did admirably during the second night vote, too. Hmm... --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:58:10 PM | message detail |
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hey Leon, are you nomming Serge? --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 9:59:08 PM | message detail |
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Tifa bombed vs. Luigi as well in the daytime, if I recall. and Sonic rocked her during the day, but that's to be expected. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/26/2006 9:59:17 PM | message detail |
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The day vote was what buried Cloud in the last two matches. He obviously draws his fans from his Cloud x Reno hentai. AKA the "Older, Night Crowd." --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 10:00:47 PM | message detail |
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and Mario got destroyed by Sephiroth during the night vote.. seems
Nintendo and Square are just the day/night that you'd expect. I can't
think of a Square character off the top of my head that's great in the
day... 'cept for Sora and KH. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 10:02:27 PM | message detail |
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hey Leon, are you nomming Serge? I really have no idea what to do with my last two male nominations. If the field is narrowed to 32 males, Serge has practically no chance of making it, so I'm really more concerned about Tidus and Knuckles missing. I also want to nominate Squall still, too, and I was wanting to nominate either Seifer or Laguna, too. In other words, the Nomination Rally messed me up. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 10:03:03 PM | message detail |
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Actually, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Vincent all have pretty good day votes. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 10:04:16 PM | message detail |
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okay, well, if you nom him then I will. I figure that if there's no
rally going on, he has virtually no chance of getting in. honestly, I'd
rather have the old guard (Zero, Knuckles, Auron, etc etc) than new
blood, most of which is likely to be at the fodder line at best. if new blood does get in, they're going to be put in unwinnable situations. Prince of Persia vs. Auron? Squall vs. Nightmare? --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 10:05:11 PM | message detail |
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Ceej will probably have one of his customary fodder/fodder matches. Hey, Ceej. Here's a tip; don't do that anymore. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 10:05:14 PM | message detail |
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oh, and I think Vincent is a near-lock to make the tournament, by the
way. he has no competition from Cloud, Seph, Tifa or Aeris on the male
side of things. Vincent seems pretty likely to get the FF7 male
nominations. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 10:05:41 PM | message detail |
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At the 1:00 mark, this match has 13479 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time: Zelda/MMX - 12992 Castlevania/Kingdom Hearts - 13226 Sonic/SSB - 12580 Final Fantasy/Mega Man - 14072 --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 10:07:22 PM | message detail |
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And yeah, I sort of feel the same way about new blood (at least, male
blood anyway. Females is wide open). If there wasn't already a
concentrated rally for them, it's almost pointless to expect them to
get in. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 10:08:55 PM | message detail |
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you know what female character I'd like to see return? Ms. Pac Man. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/26/2006 10:09:07 PM | message detail |
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if new blood does get in, they're going to be put in unwinnable situations. Prince of Persia vs. Auron? Squall vs. Nightmare? Prince of Persia easily. Honestly, I never really expected PoP to return after this contest, and now with a 32 man field, he's going to get ****ing owned to all hell. I don't even have hope for him to be put into position to win a match with a good seed. God dammit Ceej. --- Explicit Content Cheer Up Emo Kids |
| Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/26/2006 10:09:45 PM | message detail |
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Cloud > Link in 2k6 It's a KH year ;) --- Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 10:10:21 PM | message detail |
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you know what female character I'd like to see return? Ms. Pac Man. Heh, I was reading through the nomination tally topic and saw that somebody nominated her. I honestly think Mega Man overperformed on her. While she'd still be fodder, she wouldn't be Serious Sam weak. --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 7/26/2006 10:11:28 PM | message detail |
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Yes, hold on to one male and one female nom. Even if noms were to close
the instant the Final ended (which I doubt they would), we'd still have
a whole day where we'd know who won/which character to pick. Unless, of
course, Zelda/FF went right down to the wire... But I doubt it will,
since that hasn't been the trend in their matches. --- For Your Consideration: Joanna Dark, of PD fame "lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats |
| LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 10:12:34 PM | message detail |
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How many people are still eligible to win the Guru? --- The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 10:13:06 PM | message detail |
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Mega Man/Ms. Pac Man is like Luigi/Pac-Man on steroids. I don't think
she's really much different than regular old Pac-Man, if at all. I
betcha she beats all these obscure RPG female characters people are
nomming, such as your Presea. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 10:13:25 PM | message detail |
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Ms. Pac-Man could be a serious upset threat if used right. It's like
Pac-Man -- nobody cares about her, but everyone knows her. Put her up
against someone vulnerable (and preferably someone with minimal chance
for TJF), and she could surprise. And if by some miracle MG goes out and impresses against Zelda (because Lord knows it's not doing it today), my faith in Cloud > Link won't be totally eroded. KH2 being that much of difference maker makes me very optimistic about his strength -- I think he can survive TP anticipation and hype. It's just the release of the game that would kill him. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| LessThan3Presea | Posted 7/26/2006 10:13:35 PM | message detail |
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You take that back, knave! --- "A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 10:15:45 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, Presea is definitely vulnerable. Her appearance is that of a
little kid. I'd be much more wary of taking Ms. Pac-Man over Sheena, as
a counterexample. The Boss might be vulnerable too, although that might just be wishful thinking. Would certainly be similar to Pac/Ocelot though. I wonder how Kasumi would perform nowadays...? --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/26/2006 10:16:52 PM | message detail |
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yeah, MG is down to 60% updates consistently now. this might go even lower than 61% before daytime. what's the biggest percentage shift from night to day after it stabilizes? this has gotta be close to it. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| LessThan3Presea | Posted 7/26/2006 10:17:03 PM | message detail |
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I'd be much more wary of taking Ms. Pac-Man over Sheena, as a counterexample. http://www.animeka.com/bonus/tos/gallery/33.jpg With that picture, Ms. Pac-Man wouldn't stand a chance. --- "A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul |
| LessThan3Presea | Posted 7/26/2006 10:18:05 PM | message detail |
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what's the biggest percentage shift from night to day after it stabilizes? this has gotta be close to it. Kefka/Knuckles, maybe? --- "A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul |