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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 330

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trannyscience | Posted 7/26/2006 6:25:14 PM | message detail
only 32 males are gonna make the contest? Board 8 rallies are so screwed

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html


Post away!
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NOMINATE JAY SOLANO (Operation Shadow) for 2k6!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527124
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/26/2006 6:25:49 PM | message detail
YEAH THEY ARE
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
JUST LIKE UR MOM LOLO AND URS TO LALA-Tombolo
SephirothG | Posted 7/26/2006 6:26:03 PM | message detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585012

SO SOON?!
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Board 585012
My boyfriend is uncut and I laugh at him and ask him if I can put pennies in there. He doesn't appreciate it much.~ Ryoko
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 6:26:24 PM | message detail
More like, the people pledging to nominate them!
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/26/2006 6:26:38 PM | message detail
Fox > Knuckles
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
Draco1214 | Posted 7/26/2006 6:26:49 PM | message detail
O RLY
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Street Fighter Alpha 3, New Super Mario Bros.
alpha door | Posted 7/26/2006 6:27:30 PM | message detail
The post count on Board 8 is going to get so high...

I must say, though, this contest looks to be very interesting.
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Official Chrono Trigger Fan
Nominate Marina Liteyears for SC2k6!!
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 6:29:47 PM | message detail
Nominate Aya Brea.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
charmander6000 | Posted 7/26/2006 6:54:10 PM | message detail
Match XXVI: (1) Metal Gear vs. (2) Kingdom Hearts

Past Matches

Metal Gear
Defeated Soul Calibur, 69.89% - 30.11%
Defeated Fire Emblem, 65.23% - 34.77%

Kingdom Hearts
Defeated Harvest Moon, 73.22% - 26.88%
Defeated Castlevania, 51.33% - 48.67%

Analysis:

Fun Fact:
This match will be the 100th match to break 100k votes.

Even with Solid **** no one really expected Metal Gear to perform this badly. Soul Calibur would now go toe on toe with Silent Hill. Maybe we’ve underestimated Fire Emblem or overestimated Soul Calibur. After being down by 1199 votes Kingdom Hearts rode the day vote and comfortably beat Castlevania.

Out of the four matches in this round this will probably be the most interesting one, but that doesn’t mean the match will be close. Despite Metal Gear’s questionable performance against Fire Emblem I think most people can agree that Metal Gear is a stronger Konami series than Castlevania and Kingdom Hearts had its hands full with it.

I know I’m not the first one to say this put the MG/CV/KH trio had been together once before, the only difference is that Castlevania is a 3 seed instead of a 6. The paths of these three series have been really similar compare to 2k5. Solid Snake first perform well then had an underperformance (though we were expecting that), Sora didn’t show fodder that they were fodder and then after being down against Alucard used the day vote to crush him and Alucard got 55/45 against Kratos just like CV got 55/45 against Halo. We all know what happened next, Snake crushing Sora worse than anyone expected.

Don’t forget that match had the most biased picture ever, but I still think Metal Gear will win easy, just not Snake/Sora easy. Don’t forget that this match will be the 100th match to break 100k votes.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Metal Gear over Halo

charmander6000’s Prediction: Metal Gear wins, 58.62% - 41.38%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/26/2006 7:25:57 PM | message detail
I would have went far higher if I knew there would be more people shooting that high. Stupid people. >>

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 7:29:55 PM | message detail
Heh, you didn't even end up with the highest Metal Gear prediction.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
Master Moltar | Posted 7/26/2006 7:31:00 PM | message detail
Yeah, that was kinda surprising. Most of us are grouped in at 57-59%

And look at the sig!
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Moltar Status: Wanting you to Nominate Shadow the Hedgehog!
Legend of Zelda vs. Metroid - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: Metroid (30/32)
therealmnm | Posted 7/26/2006 7:34:27 PM | message detail
I hate Shadow. Snubbing Knuckles out of the next-gen Sonic game. Bah...
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
swirIdude | Posted 7/26/2006 7:35:01 PM | message detail
Knuckles > Shadow
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Xbox 360 melts disks!
And people made jokes about the PS3 being a grill. ~bokunokuso
SSBM_Guy | Posted 7/26/2006 7:35:41 PM | message detail
What swirl said.
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what ever i always new bruce wayne was batman anyway - ertyu
Organization XXX Member XX - Rocxitv
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 7:36:23 PM | message detail
KNUCKLES!
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
Who Cares? | Posted 7/26/2006 7:36:48 PM | message detail
I think I will use a nom on Knuckles, he can't be snubbed out after one of the best upsets ever.
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Noms: Ken, Nightmare, Sub Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden(MGS)
Chun-Li, Morrigan, Sheena
Master Moltar | Posted 7/26/2006 7:37:19 PM | message detail
Shadow is stronger than Knuckles though. Tidus is just a screw up and bombed against MM.

Yeah, I went there! However, if Knuckles makes it in and Shadow doesn't, I can live. Knuckles is pretty badass (but not as badass as Shadow!)
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Moltar Status: Wanting you to Nominate Shadow the Hedgehog!
Legend of Zelda vs. Metroid - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: Metroid (30/32)
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 7:37:53 PM | message detail
Knuckles beats Shadow head-to-head!
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
Tediz247 | Posted 7/26/2006 7:38:38 PM | message detail
Over: 2.5 Final Fantasy X characters in the bracket combined (males and females). Rikku, Yuna, Auron, and maybe Tidus.

Under: 2.5 Tales of Symphonia characters in the bracket combined. Sheena, and maybe Presea and Kratos. Can't see both making it.

Over: 3.5 Final Fantasy VII characters in the bracket combined. Even without Cloud and Sephiroth, it will get Aeris, Tifa, Yuffie, and probably Vincent.

Overr: 1.5 Metal Gear characters in the bracket combined. Snake's a lock, and The Boss should get in. Raiden probably will too.

Under: 2.5 Final Fantasy VI characters in the bracket combined. Maybe Terra and Celes, but certainly no more.

Over: 1.5 Sonic characters in the bracket combined. I think Knuckles will barely make it.

Over: 1.5 Kingdom Hearts characters in the bracket combined. Even if Riku doesn't make it, Kairi will.

Over: 2.5 Chrono Trigger characters in the bracket combined. Crono's pretty much a lock, and Magus always has board strength. I think Frog will be snubbed, but Marle or Lucca will make the female side.

Under: 1.5 Mortal Kombat characters in the bracket combined. Not even sure that Sub Zero will make it.

Under: 2.5 Street Fighter characters in the bracket combined. Ryu, Chun, and who else? Nobody else, that's who.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Master Moltar | Posted 7/26/2006 7:39:09 PM | message detail
Knuckles beats Shadow head-to-head!

If that happens, I'll blame it on rSFF!
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Moltar Status: Wanting you to Nominate Shadow the Hedgehog!
Legend of Zelda vs. Metroid - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: Metroid (30/32)
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 7:39:15 PM | message detail
On the contrary, I think Knuckles is stronger indirectly than Shadow, but stick the two in a match and SFF goes Shadow's way. He might even act as a Sonic-proxy again (which would *not* be good).

Sad, but I can't see Knux winning that matchup. Although for interesting thoughts, how would the board have reacted if Shadow had been the one to upset Magus?
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 7:39:50 PM | message detail
I am shocked people think Kefka will miss. He is a HEAVY nomination favorite.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 7/26/2006 7:39:54 PM | message detail
Carmen Sandiego > Nidoran F


TuRtLe
~~~
Like Darth Maul, the bastard child of Michael Flatley and Hellboy. -trancer1
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/26/2006 7:40:00 PM | message detail
Worse than Squall/Luigi.
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
Black TOesday | Posted 7/26/2006 7:40:01 PM | message detail
only 32 males are gonna make the contest?

How do you know that? Where does it say that?
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~Luster Soldier~
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 7:40:29 PM | message detail
Although for interesting thoughts, how would the board have reacted if Shadow had been the one to upset Magus?

That would've been ugly, maybe worse than Squall/Luigi.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/26/2006 7:41:16 PM | message detail
Aaaaand, The Legend of Zelda broke 110,000 votes...before Metroid broke 20,000.
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Luigi, Magus, Kefka, Ike, Alucard, Phoenix Wright
Lyn, Peach, Celes, Lenneth, Presea, Alex Roivas
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 7:43:39 PM | message detail
The thing is, people wouldn't have pointed to Magus being overrated, especially after seeing how Sonic boosted. Sonic-proxy wouldn't be generally accepted, and the Devil Division would have much less doubt cast upon it.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 7:44:47 PM | message detail
Oh, and everything would have been blamed on Tidus. LOL
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/26/2006 7:46:53 PM | message detail
If Leonhart's idea of Squall being underrated all this time is correct, Magus might not have been THAT overrated.
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
LordOfDabu | Posted 7/26/2006 7:50:00 PM | message detail
After being snubbed in this contest, I felt that it was necessary to use one of my nominations on Crono.
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The GameFAQs StarCraft Tournament of Champions 2006 Bracket:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=2000184&topic=28995048
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 7:50:04 PM | message detail
No, Magus isn't that overrated, but he's certainly not on the level of Snake or Sonic (which sort of makes it ironic that Knuckles beat him, considering the comparisons) like previously thought.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/26/2006 7:52:49 PM | message detail
He might've made a game out of it with 2k3 Sonic or 2k4 Snake.
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 7:53:43 PM | message detail
If, by "make a game," you mean 45% or so, then yeah.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 7:55:34 PM | message detail
I really doubt that. Knuckles boosted, but he didn't boost *that* much.

This is also why the Devil Division disturbs me. Taking the stats at face value, Knuckles boosted up to the level of a character that beat him 60-40 the year prior (and the two years before that). That...doesn't make any sense.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/26/2006 7:56:26 PM | message detail


This is also why the Devil Division disturbs me. Taking the stats at face value, Knuckles boosted up to the level of a character that beat him 60-40 the year prior (and the two years before that). That...doesn't make any sense.


SFF!!!!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 7:58:41 PM | message detail
The "Snake SFFs And Gets SFFed By EVERYTHING Factor."

SSAGSBEF!
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 8:00:28 PM | message detail
I don't see any "SFF" in Metal Gear/Kingdom Hearts. Kingdom Hearts is so much more than Sora.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 8:02:13 PM | message detail
MGS is more than Snake too, y'know. Strictly speaking, Snake has been the main playable character in only ONE MGS game. A case can be made for MGS3 with his proxy...but not MGS2.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
H__RR____H | Posted 7/26/2006 8:02:22 PM | message detail
Yeah, the Devil Division is just...weird. Between FF7 > CT, being newer/bigger/in the FF vein, the FF:AC leak, and Vincent likely doing better in SFF matches (his optional status should naturally matter less when it's mainly Square fans voting, as opposed to if Vincent ever faced, say...Ganon)...I don't believe Vincent is LEGITIMATELY that strong, and I wonder if he's indirectly stronger than Squall pre-KH2.

Yeah, potential rSFF.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 8:02:47 PM | message detail
Personally, I could see Solid Snake being very close to the popularity of Metal Gear as a whole.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 8:04:13 PM | message detail
I seriously doubt it was the Advent Children leak that did it for Vincent.

Honestly, saying Vincent's performance is legit makes MUCH more sense, stats-wise, in my opinion. Saying Squall was that strong makes Kirby's and Luigi's boosts not seem extreme, for one.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 8:06:04 PM | message detail
But check Snake 2k4 (adjusted) and Knuckles 2k5. Do you really buy that?
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/26/2006 8:07:20 PM | message detail
Zelda alone has more votes now than the total number of votes in Zelda/Civ.

Think we'll break 150k with SMB/FF?
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Nominate Nidoran F.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29527160
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 8:09:46 PM | message detail
I don't know what to think of that, personally. We've never seen Knuckles perform outside of losing to Solid Snake before that, so I'm not going to judge off of that. Who knows? Maybe there was some sort of strange overperformance.

Or maybe Knuckles overperformed on Squall. Beats me. I would just tend to believe Vincent's performance on Crono was more legit than not. And even if it wasn't legit, there's no way I say Squall should be brought down to his 2003 value, like some suggested.
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The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Presea, Chun-Li, Tifa, Celes, Quistis, Amy Rose
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 8:13:22 PM | message detail
Well, yeah, there's no way I think that either, and the question is really kind of meaningless once you factor in that Squall will be boosting significantly anyway.

But other characters fall under suspicion...the Dante/Ryu and Knuckles/Luigi arguments come to mind, for sure. This casts doubt on them.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 8:17:32 PM | message detail
Oh, and Knux definitely overperformed on Squall in my eyes, at least to an extent. The absolute bombardment of support he got from the board at the beginning during Squall's best time (honestly, has Knuckles *ever* won the board vote aside from then?) secures that in my mind.

Devil Division is so weird, indeed. Magus/Knuckles, Dante/Vincent, Squall/Knuckles, Vincent/Squall, and Crono/Vincent all had iffy outcomes.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
therealmnm | Posted 7/26/2006 8:18:45 PM | message detail
You know, the whole Snake only being the main playable character in only one MGS game is becoming pretty damn overrated... It's not like Snake doesn't have a large presence in that game. He's still by far has the most dominating presence in MGS2, even if you aren't playing as him. It's not like he went AWOL or something. Hell, I've seen many people say they liked Snake more because of his role in that game.

Sure, it's a technicality that Snake hasn't been a playable main since MGS, but I seriously doubt it makes that much of a difference in his overall popularity. His "presence" in MGS2 and MGS3 (yes I count that too dammit) has been more than enough to sustain his popularity. I know KH, HM, and Leonhart disagree, but so be it!
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Nominate Carmen Sandiego for SC2k6
Currently playing: Fable, MGS3:S, GTA:SA, MMAC
swirIdude | Posted 7/26/2006 8:19:17 PM | message detail
has Knuckles *ever* won the board vote aside from then?

Probably. Knuckles is a board favorite.
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Xbox 360 melts disks!
And people made jokes about the PS3 being a grill. ~bokunokuso