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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 329

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Applekidjosh | Posted 7/26/2006 6:53:34 AM | message detail
*looks at Tranny's stats*

So Mario gets the award for making its fourpack look weakest?
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lol AKJ @ work
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 6:54:26 AM | message detail
Not to say that Metroid isn't the most SFF-prone franchise ever, mind you. Only a few things seem to be susceptible to so wide a variety of things (Pac-Man springs to mind). In terms of long running established franchises in this contest, nothing seems to falter like Metroid does in the face of Nintendo.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 7/26/2006 6:56:33 AM | message detail
XD, I just had a little look at stuff, and as far as I can tell the only time something related to a noble-nine character has lost is when the Wind Waker lost to Starcraft! o_O

That's ****ing weird. So the strongest force in terms of character...is the only one to be beaten by Non-NN competition.

Obviously that's old as hell, it's just damn weird.
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Cecil XIX | Posted 7/26/2006 7:04:53 AM | message detail
Civilization: 10.03
Kirby: 9.10


Civ ending up higher than something is just oo awesome for words.
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Wow, an intelligent criticism of Zeta. Never thought I'd see the day. - AmuroNT1
Tediz247 | Posted 7/26/2006 7:38:32 AM | message detail
Ouch. Poor, poor Kirby. Not only does he finish below Civilization, but he holds the dishonor of being the only thing Metroid could ever SFF. Ouch.

Speaking of Kirby, I had a good idea for SSB/SMB. Mario, Luigi, Bowser, and Peach versus Kirby versions of all of them.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Slowflake | Posted 7/26/2006 7:46:48 AM | message detail
BRILLIANT.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 7/26/2006 8:03:14 AM | message detail
Holy...THAT WOULD BE ONE OF THE BEST PICS EVER.
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dad wat are u on i just cant my mash
Who Cares? | Posted 7/26/2006 8:54:16 AM | message detail
Agreed!
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Character Noms: Ken, Chun-Li, Kasumi, Morrigan, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2006 9:26:18 AM | message detail
What surprises me the most about today's match is this poll that happened before the Gamecube was even released:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=525

LoZ got 50.05% and Metroid got 11.53% in it...yet, in today's poll, of that leftover 38.42% that could be up for grabs and Metroid having the successes it had this generation (one GotY, one 3rd-place GotY, two GBA GotY's, MP:H demos shipped with DS's) while LoZ:WW -- while GotY -- didn't impact its series near as much, Metroid's still gettin' only 3.96% of that 38.42%...

...hell, that's not even proportional to the poll, it's so bad of a beating -- if the percentage that was up for grabs was proportional with Metroid's performance in that poll, Metroid would have 15.96% right now. It's not a big difference, but considering what all Metroid did since that poll, you would think that MAYBE it wouldn't get its ass kicked like this.
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DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/26/2006 9:45:00 AM | message detail
From Karma Hunter | Posted 7/26/2006 12:47:08 AM | #269
But if Samus is only that strong thanks to SSB, that means if and when Snake, Sonic, and Mega Man pop in the game, her advantage is totally erased.

And we didn't see such a thing against Ganondorf.

Man, making sense of this is making my brain hurt.


i think that the boost from SSB varies from character to character. Kirby was probably the most popular brawler from the original SSB, so that's why he gets so much benefit from the series. And in both iterations of the franchise, Samus' cool projectiles and especially the charge-up attack are popular among casual players, which explains her boost. People like Gannondorf aren't used anywhere near as much as those two in SSB, at least among the casual crowd.
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith
jonthomson | Posted 7/26/2006 9:45:51 AM | message detail
Match 26 - Metal Gear vs Kingdom Hearts

Our second quarter final sees the obv weakest 1 seed, Metal Gear, against Kingdom Hearts, which barely qualifies as a series at all. So far, we've seen Metal Gear not quite manage 70% against Soul Calibur, and then fail to double Fire Emblem. Not a great set of performances against a fighting game series and a weak RPG series which nobody would care about if it weren't for Melee.

Kingdom Hearts, on the other hand, clocked over 70% against Harvest Moon, and then came from behind to crush my upset special and beat Castlevania by 3000ish votes. Not the greatest of runs, but it's got this far which is more than a lot of series have managed.

For some reason, I think this might be close. I fully expected Castlevania to win, was happy when it was winning, but not surprised when it collapsed during the day. Metal Gear is a stronger series than Castlevania and should win this, but we've seen that some people are willing to vote for one or two good games against multiple games that constitute a proper series. See Super Smash Bros. Kingdom Hearts is no SSB, but Metal Gear is better than Sonic. Although it's got less games, the games that count should be a lot stronger. 55/45 sounds nice.

Bracket says: Metal Gear
Favourites bracket says: Halo
Vote says: Metal Gear
Prediction: Metal Gear with 54.76%

Fun fact of the day: jonthomson has tried playing the original Metal Gear. And hates it.
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/26/2006 10:18:10 AM | message detail
Cruel and unusual 500th post.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
bobby200614 | Posted 7/26/2006 10:18:11 AM | message detail
jonthomson has tried playing the original Metal Gear. And hates it.

so does Bobby.
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New Sig! Coming Soon.
transience | Posted 7/26/2006 10:23:13 AM | message detail
Yoshi is more associated with Nintendo than Mega Man, and all that got him was a whipping that put him below Leon Kennedy. SFF doesn't mean the voters are stupid. It just means that they tend to share the same fanbase...and I think MMX could put on a damn good show against Metroid.

I think Samus wins by just as much. it's not like she's being hit with SFF against people with no strength. the only time that could have possibly happened is against Pokemon. it's just that Mario and Zelda whomp her and her series.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/26/2006 10:27:53 AM | message detail
Speaking of Kirby, I had a good idea for SSB/SMB. Mario, Luigi, Bowser, and Peach versus Kirby versions of all of them.

Awesome idea.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
jonthomson | Posted 7/26/2006 10:30:11 AM | message detail
Speaking of Kirby, I had a good idea for SSB/SMB. Mario, Luigi, Bowser, and Peach versus Kirby versions of all of them.

Awesome. If we want to rig the match, we do Mario, Luigi, Bowser and Peach vs Mario, Luigi, Bowser, Peach and Link/Pikachu (delete as appropriate for which way you want to rig it)
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Jon Thomson - CATS, Jay Solano, Ridley, Scorpion, Alien Hominid, Duke Nukem, The Prince, Johnny Rocketfingers, two TBA
voltch | Posted 7/26/2006 10:30:35 AM | message detail
btw how popular are Metal gear acid games?
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Tai | Posted 7/26/2006 10:51:49 AM | message detail
Hmm....FF is pushing to 85%. O_O
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TRE Public Account | Posted 7/26/2006 11:03:20 AM | message detail
You're 3 days early. =D
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XIII_rocks | Posted 7/26/2006 11:14:42 AM | message detail
btw how popular are Metal gear acid games?

I doubt very popular. I think I remember HM posting the sales numbers for MGA and they were 70,000. I could be wrong though.
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FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/26/2006 11:53:10 AM | message detail
Poor Metroid.


But Samus does okay in SFF situations; in a contest setting, she's rarely disappointed. I don't really like how Metroid flopping here translates to Samus is only strong because of SSB, once Snake/Sonic/Megaman are in the game, they're going to crush her, etc. Even if new players tried out Metroid Prime because of SSB, that isn't what made it the highly acclaimed game it is. WW/MP wouldn't have been as close if people only liked Samus because of SSB. Metroid may be failing today, but Samus still has had Metroid Hunters since last contest, and while I don't think she'll get any noticeable boost from that, it should be enough to prevent her from failing. Not that anyone's called for Samus to fail spectacularly, just that she's still a very strong character, regardless (and it's pretty much irrelevant, anyway) where her strength comes from.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 12:14:39 PM | message detail
but he holds the dishonor of being the only thing Metroid could ever SFF. Ouch.

Or...maybe Kirby's just that weak. I'm about as big of a Kirby fan as you'll find, but I just can't imagine his games having strength.

Yes, yes, I know, you're going to point to Kirby being lower than Star Ocean, but quite frankly, that doesn't surprise me.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 12:19:48 PM | message detail
At the 15:15 mark:

Zelda/Metroid - 92861
Final Fantasy/Mega Man - 94119

The Legend of Zelda's individual vote total: 78621
Super Mario Brothers's individual vote total against Madden: 74147

So...we're looking at Zelda pulling in 110-112,000 individual votes, meaning it could outdo its first round performance against Civilization by itself.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/26/2006 12:44:38 PM | message detail
Wow, an 88.70% update for Zelda...
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/26/2006 1:00:56 PM | message detail
"Yes, yes, I know, you're going to point to Kirby being lower than Star Ocean, but quite frankly, that doesn't surprise me."

You wouldn't be surprised at Kirby losing to Star Ocean in a direct match?
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/26/2006 1:08:01 PM | message detail
No, I really wouldn't. I don't think Kirby was really SFF'd that severely by Metroid. Honestly, his primary medium has been handhelds, and other than Pokemon, we haven't seen anything with that emphasis be worth anything. All he's got to work with is Kirby SuperStar, really.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
NewLib | Posted 7/26/2006 1:09:08 PM | message detail
Well I just got back from vacation.

Castlevania was well in the lead when I left, day vote must of killed him.


I did not expect SSB to beat Sonic that bad.

Yah RE.
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Where am I?
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/26/2006 1:13:40 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse26.jpg

Young Ocelot! Old Snake!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/26/2006 1:14:18 PM | message detail
Star Ocean isn't exactly a bastion of popularity. I can't see Kirby losing to SO, though, just due to Nintendo association. I can't see it, and I'm shocked you can.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 7/26/2006 1:15:16 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts is so screwed.
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caps
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/26/2006 1:16:21 PM | message detail
Star Ocean isn't exactly a bastion of popularity

Nor is Kirby. Just being Nintendo might be enough to get a win head-to-head, but being weaker indirectly doesn't surprise me.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2006 1:19:00 PM | message detail
I'd certainly take Kirby over SO, but I wouldn't think it'd win by much. 60+% is out of the question, and I would think 55% would be a real tough sell.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/26/2006 1:21:16 PM | message detail
No, I really wouldn't. I don't think Kirby was really SFF'd that severely by Metroid. Honestly, his primary medium has been handhelds, and other than Pokemon, we haven't seen anything with that emphasis be worth anything. All he's got to work with is Kirby SuperStar, really.

http://www.vgcharts.org/worldtotals.php?name=kirby&console=&publisher=&sort=Total

KSS really wasn't all that popular. Kirby 64, surprisingly, was. And don't forget the mighty power of Felix, another handheld character...or Fire Emblem, a handheld franchise that would undoubtedly beat SO as well.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/26/2006 1:22:54 PM | message detail
And don't forget the mighty power of Felix, another handheld character

Against Master Chief? Psh, I don't trust anything extrapolated through him.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
TRE Public Account | Posted 7/26/2006 1:25:16 PM | message detail
Honestly, his primary medium has been handhelds, and other than Pokemon, we haven't seen anything with that emphasis be worth anything.

We really haven't seen all that much from handhelds at all. I believe the biggest reason handhelds weren't given any credit was because Pokemon seemed to be so weak which is something that is now clearly false.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/26/2006 1:25:40 PM | message detail
Are you comfortable taking Fire Emblem over Kirby?
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/26/2006 1:26:03 PM | message detail
Against Master Chief? Psh, I don't trust anything extrapolated through him.

Yeah, Felix is kinda stretching it. But I'd certainly take Kirby to beat Fire Emblem, and as I believe that MG is stronger than MMX, I'd take FE over SO.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2006 1:26:50 PM | message detail
I was about to mention FE/Kirby...and, honestly, I'd pick Kirby only because it's the safe pick; I'm not convinced FE couldn't win that one.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/26/2006 1:28:12 PM | message detail
I think people are trying to give Kirby too much credit. Looking at his sales, he hasn't had a popular game in a LOOOOOONG time. Kirby is a popular character. His games aren't.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/26/2006 1:32:13 PM | message detail
Kirby 64, surprisingly, was [popular].

Oh, you mean this Kirby 64?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=197
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=225

Granted, they're old as dirt, but that's not a good sign for Kirby...

...but since we're talking about Kirby, I have a question: why are we so certain KSS is the most popular Kirby game?
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Tediz247 | Posted 7/26/2006 1:34:41 PM | message detail
Big Boss, Major Ocelot, and Old Snake almost make up for the lack of The Boss and Raiden. Also, that's exactly what I expected for KH.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/26/2006 1:34:43 PM | message detail
Dude, of the last four Kirby games released in the US CC is the only one not safely above half a million. One of the GBA games apparently even cracked a mil.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/26/2006 1:35:28 PM | message detail
even picture, I suppose. I don't exactly have a lot of experience with either series.
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Kingdom Hearts. raytan's perfect bracket depends on it!
NORG WILL NOT GO DOWN SO EASILY
trannyscience | Posted 7/26/2006 1:37:30 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/contest/contest_nominate.php

oh... dear
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Kingdom Hearts. raytan's perfect bracket depends on it!
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arkenaga | Posted 7/26/2006 1:37:59 PM | message detail
Oh snap, nom's up!
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trannyscience | Posted 7/26/2006 1:38:03 PM | message detail
The following characters are guaranteed positions and do not need any nominations: Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mario.

heh, interesting. wonder what he's planning.
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Kingdom Hearts. raytan's perfect bracket depends on it!
NORG WILL NOT GO DOWN SO EASILY
Tediz247 | Posted 7/26/2006 1:38:31 PM | message detail
****. A terrible nomination system in the middle of a contest... what will the result be? Ugh.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
Master Moltar | Posted 7/26/2006 1:38:50 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse26.jpg

Young Ocelot for the win!

Wait, 32 males vs. 32 females for the next Contest? Oh Lawd...
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Legend of Zelda vs. Metroid - Bracket: LoZ - Vote: Metroid (30/32)
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/26/2006 1:39:42 PM | message detail
Link, Cloud, Sephiroth, and Mario are guaranteed positions? I guess that means something like the ToC is returning.

And with that format, it looks like...a males only half and a females only half? If that's the case, we are going to have a LOT of snubs.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
trannyscience | Posted 7/26/2006 1:40:47 PM | message detail
not good news for rallies, especially Jay Solano. makes me wonder if I should kickstart a female entry. I know we've got Aeris.. what other girls would be appropriate?
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SERIOUS REMINDER: vote for Kingdom Hearts. raytan's perfect bracket depends on it!
NORG WILL NOT GO DOWN SO EASILY