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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 325

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charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:20:34 PM | message detail
Finally over 70%
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:21:05 PM | message detail
Everybody seems to think SSBM did better in that match. What the hell???
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
The Real Truth | Posted 7/23/2006 9:21:23 PM | message detail
I agree with creativename. I think that FF is doing what MG did against FE. I don't think some people understand what "Series" means. Simply seeing Final Fantasy and no Squall/Cloud/Tidus is hurting FF I think.
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Kingdom Hearts killed my bracket.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2006 9:21:24 PM | message detail
From LeonhartForever Posted 7/23/2006 9:20:09 PM
Well, you're basically saying that SSB gets 61.53% on Mega Man in that case. I find that unlikely.

Oh. Nevermind then. I didn't think SSB would be winning by that much.

Where's that X-stats calculator?

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Janus5000 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:21:41 PM | message detail
Will it be done tommorow?

Are you se- wait, you're talking about the match today, not the match 'tomorrow.' Silly me. Still, probably no.

Good boy, FF.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:23:35 PM | message detail
So this looks like its going to end in the "Mega Man is the 4th strongest series - FF/LoZ will be closer than FFVII/OoT" bit of my expectations. That works.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:23:37 PM | message detail
Yeah, I have no idea why people seem to forget that SSBM got 37% against FFVII.

I don't think some people understand what "Series" means.

Come on now. Give the voters some credit. I doubt they consider the PSX games to be a separate series, and it's not like Metal Gear's case where something is left off of the title (other than the Roman numerals, obviously).
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:23:44 PM | message detail
Well I forgot about that match. I thought SSBM did better. I just couldn't imagine MM coming so close to SSB.

I'd consider MM to do much better on SSB than Sonic did, regardless of whether or not Sonic is indirectly stronger. MM has shown to be pretty SFF resistant, while Sonic has shown to be very susceptible to SFF.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/23/2006 9:23:53 PM | message detail
JULY 2006 TOP FIVE UPDATES

Most Popular Polls (by vote total)

Hyrule Semifinal - (1) The Legend of Zelda [104400] vs (5) Mega Man X [25577] - 129977
Snake Semifinal - (3) Castlevania [62435] vs (2) Kingdom Hearts [65851] - 128286
Mushroom Round 1 - (4) Grand Theft Auto [63051] vs (5) Warcraft [64167] - 127218
Mushroom Semifinal - (3) Sonic the Hedgehog [53423] vs (2) Super Smash Brothers [72755] - 126178
Hyrule Semifinal - (3) Pokémon [59428] vs (2) Metroid [65831] - 125259

Most Impressive Losers (by vote total)

Mushroom Round 1 - (4) Grand Theft Auto - 63051
Snake Semifinal - (3) Castlevania - 62435
Hyrule Semifinal - (3) Pokémon - 59428
Mushroom Semifinal - (3) Sonic the Hedgehog - 53423
Snake Round 1 - (6) Halo - 49930

Hardest Matches to Predict (based on percentage of entrants choosing the winner)

Snake Semifinal - (3) Castlevania vs (2) Kingdom Hearts - 29.9%
Snake Round 1 - (3) Castlevania vs (6) Halo - 31.49%
Mushroom Round 1 - (4) Grand Theft Auto vs (5) Warcraft - 33.94%
Mushroom Semifinal - (3) Sonic the Hedgehog vs (2) Super Smash Brothers - 46.03%
Snake Round 1 - (4) Fire Emblem vs (5) Silent Hill - 50.65%

Sonic/SSB didn't crack any all-time top tens.

~*ST*~
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:25:11 PM | message detail
MM has shown to be pretty SFF resistant, while Sonic has shown to be very susceptible to SFF.

They each have one case of SFF. I don't know how you can draw such a conclusion.

And despite the result, I still find it highly unlikely this FF/Zelda is closer than FFVII/OoT.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:25:38 PM | message detail
I agree with creativename. I think that FF is doing what MG did against FE. I don't think some people understand what "Series" means. Simply seeing Final Fantasy and no Squall/Cloud/Tidus is hurting FF I think.

I find it insane that people are willing to believe that, and then not think that Link and Samus help SSB against Sonic. I'm not saying it was match changing, and I don't even know if I personally believe it, but come on. Metal Gear's situation is very different, considering the lack of the word "Solid" and nothing in the pic pointing towards MGS being a part of MG. Final Fantasy is Final Fantasy.


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Janus5000 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:25:41 PM | message detail
Shouldn't it crack highest total votes?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
transience | Posted 7/23/2006 9:26:29 PM | message detail
last two updates:

72.1
71.8

should give us a good idea of where this'll stabilize at.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:27:00 PM | message detail
Man, vote totals are high so far.

Not that I would've expected anything different. Just saying.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:27:02 PM | message detail
Yeah, I really don't think this is causing that much confusion...heck, there really wouldn't be any confusion for me in MG/FE if it weren't for Soul Calibur = Silent Hill by those results. And like I said before, maybe MGS just SFFed Soul Calibur enough for it to happen (SCII was multiplatform and SCIII was PS2-exclusive!). I buy that before I buy Soul Calibur = Silent Hill...I love the games, but that is just one hell of a fodderific series.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2006 9:27:43 PM | message detail
I still don't understand the people that picked FF with 80%. Doesn't that mean that Mega Man wouldn't be much stronger than Diablo?

Right?

I have no idea how to calculate X-stats.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:27:45 PM | message detail
The high votals (3rd all time) of LoZ/MMX make me think there wasn't a whole lot of SFF there, and, if LoZ = 45% on FF, you're looking at a 70/30 match with MM/MMX. Now, there probably was some SFF and FF is probably going to go higher during the day, but that still seems very implausible.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:29:07 PM | message detail
They each have one case of SFF. I don't know how you can draw such a conclusion.

And despite the result, I still find it highly unlikely this FF/Zelda is closer than FFVII/OoT.


Point taken. However MM's was againt Link, who has shown to be capable of SFFing things the most, while Sonic has been rocked by a Mario game not nearly as strong, and SFF'd by SSB (Yes, I'm putting SFF on yesterdays match, bite me.)

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:29:24 PM | message detail
Doesn't that mean that Mega Man wouldn't be much stronger than Diablo?

Even if Mega Man got exactly 20%, it'd still beat Diablo with 65%.

And just having high vote totals isn't enough to convince me there was no SFF in Zelda/Mega Man X. It just tells me that those are two big vote-drawing series.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 9:29:53 PM | message detail
I agree with creativename. I think that FF is doing what MG did against FE. I don't think some people understand what "Series" means. Simply seeing Final Fantasy and no Squall/Cloud/Tidus is hurting FF I think.

If you think that, then you would have to believe Metal Gear was hurt much worse. The situation with Metal Gear is almost entirely different from Final Fantasy.

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The Real Truth | Posted 7/23/2006 9:29:58 PM | message detail
FlamboyantSpy
Posted 7/23/2006 9:25:38 PM
I find it insane that people are willing to believe that, and then not think that Link and Samus help SSB against Sonic. I'm not saying it was match changing, and I don't even know if I personally believe it, but come on. Metal Gear's situation is very different, considering the lack of the word "Solid" and nothing in the pic pointing towards MGS being a part of MG. Final Fantasy is Final Fantasy.


I also believed that Link/Samus helped SSB. MG may have lost more votes due to the picture it had, but tell me that FF would be doing the same had it received the picture it got in round one.
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Kingdom Hearts killed my bracket.
Janus5000 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:30:42 PM | message detail
Mega Man almost doubles Diablo if it gets 20%, and doubles it almost exactly if it gets 21.03%.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:30:52 PM | message detail
There was likely a *lot* of SFF there, and the higher you raise MMX the higher you raise Suikoden...and seeing as how Mega Man at *least* has 5th strongest series locked down at this point from a perspective of X-Stats, seeing Suikoden that high just makes no sense. MMX is just not on par with MM. It might be able to beat it in a direct match...but Mega Man has certainly done everything in its power to show us that it trumps MMX in every other respect.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2006 9:31:01 PM | message detail
Ah.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/23/2006 9:31:06 PM | message detail
Yeah, I have no idea why people seem to forget that SSBM got 37% against FFVII.

Perhaps because SSBM is likely substantially stronger now than it was back then.

I don't think this match gives any proof of MM being stronger than Smash. There are plenty of people who would still take SSB over MK by 60% or more, and I certainly wouldn't take MM over Sonic by even close to the amount SSB got. MM could certainly end up the strongest series in the stats, but I still doubt it could take SSB.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:31:32 PM | message detail
And from the looks of things, Mario Kart might be able to avoid a tripling against Final Fantasy, which means it's still a fairly strong series in its own right. It just means that Mega Man was heavily underestimated.

Now are we so certain that Mega Man wouldn't have at least ONE strong game?
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:32:31 PM | message detail
Perhaps because SSBM is likely substantially stronger now than it was back then.

No proof of that. I'd give it no more than 39% in a rematch.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:32:32 PM | message detail

I also believed that Link/Samus helped SSB. MG may have lost more votes due to the picture it had, but tell me that FF would be doing the same had it received the picture it got in round one.


K. I pegged the match at 73% for FF when it's all said and done with, so nothing is really surprising to me at this point. FF will go up as the day goes on, but not anywhere much higher than that. I see no reason for FF to underperform, it's not like it has unrecognizable sprites or anything. Sure Cloud and Squall are huge names and powerful characters in these contests, but it's called Best Series Ever for a reason, and the voters have shown that they're aware of such things (Y halo thar CV > Halo). There's really no reason for a FF underperformance.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:33:02 PM | message detail
Mega Man 2 for S(p)C2kX!!! (i.e. whenever Ceej feels like doing a game contest again!).
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/23/2006 9:33:04 PM | message detail
From Janus5000 Posted 7/24/2006 12:25:41 AM #212
Shouldn't it crack highest total votes?

Oh, right. Oops.

I'm still hungover to hell, so cut me a break =p

(Weddings kick ass. As much free alcohol as you want for hours and hours.)

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:34:03 PM | message detail
Perhaps because SSBM is likely substantially stronger now than it was back then.

I enjoy completely made up points.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/23/2006 9:34:25 PM | message detail
I'm shocked that no one has bothered mentioning that Mega Man is doing "well" (lol 30% being well) because of the "'Mega Man' is all-inclusive" dealie.

Seriously, MM is a far different animal than MMX. And the voters in that favorite Mega Man series poll kind of prove this more than hurt it.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:35:00 PM | message detail

Oh, right. Oops.

I'm still hungover to hell, so cut me a break =p

(Weddings kick ass. As much free alcohol as you want for hours and hours.)


Unless they're cheap hardcore christians who only serve soda and punch, and everyone sits on cheap wooden chairs on fold out tables while no music plays!

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/23/2006 9:35:14 PM | message detail
I enjoy completely made up points.

?

SSBM has aged better than any other game in this generation by a mile. I could see it breaking 40% on FF7 when its aging is paired with lol NintendoFAQs.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:35:19 PM | message detail
Oh, I forgot to mention the part where they ran out of food.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:35:31 PM | message detail
And honestly, I'd sooner blame the picture for causing people to think Final Fantasy was the bottom option that I would blame sprites making it underperform.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:35:47 PM | message detail
Well Final Fantasy has been increasing a lot since the match began.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:36:05 PM | message detail


SSBM has aged better than any other game in this generation by a mile. I could see it breaking 40% on FF7 when its aging is paired with lol NintendoFAQs.


Aged well, yes. That doesn't mean it has grown stronger, it just means it hasn't lost any of it's power, say like something Goldeneye might do.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:36:13 PM | message detail
SSBM has aged better than any other game in this generation by a mile. I could see it breaking 40% on FF7 when its aging is paired with lol NintendoFAQs.

Except he still completely pulled it out of the air with no evidence at all.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:36:30 PM | message detail
Hey guys don't look now, but Final Fantasy is starting to own. <.<
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/23/2006 9:36:46 PM | message detail
From LeonhartForever Posted 7/24/2006 12:35:31 AM #236
And honestly, I'd sooner blame the picture for causing people to think Final Fantasy was the bottom option that I would blame sprites making it underperform.

That's actually not a bad point.

~*ST*~
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Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:37:00 PM | message detail
Didn't Kefka's sprite make him overperform against Wesker.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:37:04 PM | message detail
*closes eyes*

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:37:20 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy has gotten 73.66% in the last two updates, by the way. Looks like it's not finished going up just yet.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:37:52 PM | message detail
Oh, I agree that MM/MMX would be safely in favor of classic, but I think an indirect doubling is unlikely. Suppose Zelda nabbed 5% SFF on MMX (compared to ~3% that Link got on Mega Man), and FF finishes at 73%. Then, if LoZ = 45% on FF, it's a 60/40 match between the MM/MMX. I still think it would be closer than that, and I don't think LoZ got that much SFF either. We'll know soon enough anyway.
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Mustache...and green...
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:38:02 PM | message detail
Didn't Kefka's sprite make him overperform against Wesker.

Depends on who you ask. Kefka is a different story entirely though (I'd expect the Kefka laughing sprite to perform a point or two better than Lettuce Kefka).
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
transience | Posted 7/23/2006 9:38:07 PM | message detail
whoa, that's a big jump. still don't think it hits 75% though.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:38:19 PM | message detail
That's actually not a bad point.

I seriously doubt people see the picture, then look straight at the bubbles and ignore the name next to it. It may confuse some voters, but I really doubt that they're as stupid as we often like to make them look.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:38:21 PM | message detail
Didn't Kefka's sprite make him overperform against Wesker.

A popular theory that came about during the Villains Contest but one that's got more evidence against than for after Wesker still proved to be one weak character in SC2K5.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:39:39 PM | message detail
Wesker was weak, yes, but stronger than he was in the Villains Contest. Even stronger if you consider a touch of SFF for Zero.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.