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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 325

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NominateSerge | Posted 7/23/2006 8:34:39 PM | message detail
still wanna see Serge in a contest though... you never know.

*obligatory random appearance*
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The user name says it all.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/23/2006 8:35:41 PM | message detail
44.44% for Super Smash Brothers with 59 perfects remaining.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 8:36:02 PM | message detail
Sooo...anytime someone says "Serge", you show up? Kinda like a Captain Planet thing?
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www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:36:40 PM | message detail
SSB will probably have under 50% here...Sonic was likely great casual bait and it's never been impressive with the prediction percentages to begin with. Heck, we might get something Vincent-esque.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
NominateSerge | Posted 7/23/2006 8:37:28 PM | message detail
Sooo...anytime someone says "Serge", you show up? Kinda like a Captain Planet thing?

Basically. Serge is a firm believer in subliminal messaging.
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The user name says it all.
Mister Mario | Posted 7/23/2006 8:45:34 PM | message detail
Thinking about it, anyone else surprised that the Chrono series didn't get in? You'd think Trigger would be more than enough for it to be in.
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3rd overall in the "10 Best Games Ever" contest (Score 11/27%).
15th overall in the "Summer 2005 Character Contest" (Score 204).
Draco1214 | Posted 7/23/2006 8:45:58 PM | message detail
37% for SSB
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2, New Super Mario Bros.
LegendaryLocke | Posted 7/23/2006 8:48:40 PM | message detail
We've been over Chrono getting in or not more than once.
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Locke Cole--Winner of the NCAA Character Battle 2005
*steals your underwear*
Ngamer64 | Posted 7/23/2006 8:49:04 PM | message detail
It's not all that surprising, and CJay already covered this in the Daily Grind. CT missed out because half the people nominated "Chrono" and the other half "Crono." But even if you add the two together, it would only have made the field as a 7 seed.

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"lol x-stats" - The Contest Simulator: http://thengamer.com/xstats
Ngamer's Contest Archives: http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
transience | Posted 7/23/2006 8:50:06 PM | message detail
Halo only made the field as a 6 seed and I didn't see anyone writing it off. Chrono shoulda been in and deserved it as much as SSB did.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 8:50:16 PM | message detail
heh, that's why i'm starting to like the idea of "something fishy factor" instead of "same fanbase factor".

I honestly -hate- the term something fishy factor, aside from the comic value of it. Saying something fishy went on may as well be saying there was an overlap in fanbase significant enough to skew the results (SFF), there is no other reason for overperformance or underpeformance aside from an overlap in fanbase, it just simply doesn't exist. And you don't have to be from the same company, genre, or system for it to occur. You can be, and it certainly will show up more often when those 3 things do coincide, but simply because they don't isn't a reason to act like SFF isn't a possibility.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 8:50:41 PM | message detail
Also, that's not just against cyko, as I quoted him, but everyone who posts things similar.

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Mister Mario | Posted 7/23/2006 8:53:46 PM | message detail
Ah, I haven't been keeping up with all the topics, I guess.

And why didn't he just mix Crono and Chrono? Pretty clear what people meant.
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3rd overall in the "10 Best Games Ever" contest (Score 11/27%).
15th overall in the "Summer 2005 Character Contest" (Score 204).
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/23/2006 8:54:00 PM | message detail
Quick Analysis:

Final Fantasy will be looking to impress, and no less than a sextupling of the original Mega Man series will do it. However, there are a few points to keep in mind:

- Voters are sheep and will assume "Mega Man" refers to not only every Mega Man series, but Mega Man as a character as well, which will give Mega Man the strength of a Noble Nine character status - PLUS ALL HIS SERIES.
- The match pic heavily favors Mega Man. Modern gamers aren't familiar with any of the sprites in the pic. Also, the order is reversed, meaning people that might otherwise vote for FF will vote for Mega Man instead. Whoops!
- Bass and Protoman are in the picture. This is apparently some sort of big deal.

Anyways, all things taking into account, Mega Man will march to victory - and avoid the sextupling. Barely.

Prediction: Final Fantasy with 80.77%
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This was Ed Bellis.
Mister Mario | Posted 7/23/2006 8:55:22 PM | message detail
Oh. Machine count.
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3rd overall in the "10 Best Games Ever" contest (Score 11/27%).
15th overall in the "Summer 2005 Character Contest" (Score 204).
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 8:57:28 PM | message detail
Alright.. finally caught up with the last topic, still need to read this topic. This seems to be a continuing trend. I get home around 11:30 or so, get caught up on the old stats topic, and it's time to watch the new match unfold.

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charmander6000 | Posted 7/23/2006 8:58:34 PM | message detail
I usually skim through most of it only reading the important stuff.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:59:17 PM | message detail
I honestly don't think half the people were stupid enough to nominate Chrono as 'Crono' or something like that...plus, there's a lot more common misspellings that can be made from the lower seeded stuff that got in. Soul Caliber had to be one of the big ones, yet it still got its 8 seed.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Master Moltar | Posted 7/23/2006 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy 57.14% 4
Mega Man 42.86% 3
TOTAL VOTES 7

Oooh
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Final Fantasy vs. Mega Man - Bracket: FF - Vote: MM (26/28)
transience | Posted 7/23/2006 9:00:23 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy 75% 3
Mega Man 25% 1
TOTAL VOTES 4
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Mister Mario | Posted 7/23/2006 9:00:39 PM | message detail
Seventh wooooooooooooo!
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3rd overall in the "10 Best Games Ever" contest (Score 11/27%).
15th overall in the "Summer 2005 Character Contest" (Score 204).
Master Moltar | Posted 7/23/2006 9:00:42 PM | message detail
46.03% for SSB, not bad...
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Final Fantasy vs. Mega Man - Bracket: FF - Vote: MM (26/28)
Janus5000 | Posted 7/23/2006 9:00:45 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy 57.14% 4
Mega Man 42.86% 3
TOTAL VOTES 7

Hmm, so much for everyone underestimating SSB by too much again.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
steve illumina | Posted 7/23/2006 9:01:01 PM | message detail
I was FF's 1st vote! And I am SO PROUD OF IT!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Score: 26/28. Next Win: FF...
transience | Posted 7/23/2006 9:01:11 PM | message detail
hmm... 51% for SSB, ...73 perfects, I guess.

I was close!
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 9:01:27 PM | message detail
Final Fantasy 65.05% 376
Mega Man 34.95% 202
TOTAL VOTES 578


Final Fantasy ... human?

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:01:54 PM | message detail
58% of the perfects had Smash winning. Baring another upset, methinks we're gonna see a perfect. ;_;

Also, HOLY MM AWESOMENESS BATMAN.

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Master Moltar | Posted 7/23/2006 9:01:57 PM | message detail
FF not over 70% yet?

UH OHZ
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Final Fantasy vs. Mega Man - Bracket: FF - Vote: MM (26/28)
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:02:23 PM | message detail
FF's not even getting a doubling here...but then again, we saw that the board likely anti-voted it hard during the Diablo match. Seeing an insane percentage jump is probably very likely.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:02:23 PM | message detail
Considering what Final Fantasy was doing at the first freeze to Diablo, this is very impressive.

Of course, Mega Man is much more likely to be favored by the board, but odds are the percentage won't sky rocket to the 80s range.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2006 9:02:23 PM | message detail
Go, Megaman! For great kickass!

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
AmazingKirby | Posted 7/23/2006 9:02:45 PM | message detail
Obviously, people are accidently voting for Mega Man because the picture is switched!
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caps
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 9:03:23 PM | message detail
Oh, right. I wasn't here for the beginning of Final Fantasy/Diablo. So this isn't unusual given the last round?

Hmm. Good deal then.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:03:30 PM | message detail
I called FF with 73%, and at this point, I'm thinking right around there is pretty likely.

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transience | Posted 7/23/2006 9:03:48 PM | message detail
hmm, interesting. it's only the first minute though, I wouldn't be surprised if FF makes a huge jump here.

and if it stays like this for the rest of the match, I'd attribute it to Mega Man being pretty strong. looks like we may have just underestimated it badly when we took MK.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:04:40 PM | message detail
More like you underestimated, m i rite?!?

I was willing to put my account on the line as soon as yo made that topic! Damn requirements...


*ignores pokemon*

BLAH BLAH BLAH

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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/23/2006 9:04:43 PM | message detail
No doubt in my mind Final Fantasy will pick up big numbers tomorrow and get over 73% at least.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:05:17 PM | message detail
Also, I think this pretty much confirms MM being in the running for 4th strongest when it's all said and done.

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transience | Posted 7/23/2006 9:05:24 PM | message detail
yeah, there it goes. this is the first match in a while that's looked "normal" - FF hanging out in the 70's.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/23/2006 9:05:30 PM | message detail
Bah.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Master Moltar | Posted 7/23/2006 9:05:34 PM | message detail
Moving towards 70% now, but still, MM is doing fine so far.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Final Fantasy vs. Mega Man - Bracket: FF - Vote: MM (26/28)
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:05:42 PM | message detail
Nice leap for Final Fantasy. The next update should push it over 70%.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 9:06:00 PM | message detail
It got up to 69% with that update. Hopefully it'll continue increasing tonight and get over 70% without much trouble. I wish it'd go for the tripling!!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/23/2006 9:06:25 PM | message detail
Chyeah bowyee. People will say LoZ now has the advantage of course, but MMX being weaker than MM indirectly (OMG LET'S FLOG EC WTF WAT A NOOB), and SFF, we'll simply have to deal with them.

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transience | Posted 7/23/2006 9:06:55 PM | message detail
hmm

fact or fiction: Mario takes the lead on the board vote vs. Final Fantasy.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
MnMZero | Posted 7/23/2006 9:07:08 PM | message detail
Mega Man for 4th strongest??? Remember, the percentage it gets will most likely be its x-stat value. 27-30% would actually be very good...
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 9:07:11 PM | message detail
No big deal. The board will do whatever it has to in order to discredit Final Fantasy's chances.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 9:07:36 PM | message detail
It's a fact that if Cloud were present in the picture alone, Final Fantasy would already have the tripling!!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Master Moltar | Posted 7/23/2006 9:07:38 PM | message detail
Fact

LoZ might actually hold the lead over it for several updates...
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Final Fantasy vs. Mega Man - Bracket: FF - Vote: MM (26/28)
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 9:07:49 PM | message detail
From the very first freeze (i.e. the one after the first two minutes) to the end of the match, Diablo lost nearly ten percent. FF's leap at the first 5 minute update here is much tamer though...around 4 percent instead of 6 percent.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.