GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 325
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| creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 7:25:01 PM | message detail |
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25% for Mega Man wouldn't be surprising. If Mega Man truly pushes 30% however, that might likely mean either of two things: 1) Final Fantasy is in some trouble 2) Not having Cloud or Sephiroth in the picture means Mega Man manages to overperform by a few points Above 77% would be impressive indeed for Final Fantasy. Above 80% would be virtually earth-shattering, and though we've seen Final Fantasy do earth-shattering stuff before, I don't expect to see it here. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Dilated Chemist | Posted 7/23/2006 7:29:41 PM | message detail |
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MG would beat SSB, sillies. --- =DC= Chemistry can be a good and bad thing. Chemistry is good when you make love with it. Chemistry is bad when you make crack with it. |
| creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 7:31:35 PM | message detail |
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hmm... this kind of reminds me of the games contest, where x-stats
just ended up looking awful. is it possible that linearity is just
thrown out the window with games as opposed to characters? I mean,
characters aren't the most linear things in the world either, but at
least the x-stats look valid; in the game contest it was just a mess.
yeah I guess you can call SFF on the entire game contest and this
contest as well, but at some point you've gotta wonder, you know? A lot of it is the jobber effect, and due to the Big Three this contest if filled with jobbers. Also it does seem SFF non-linearity occurs more with games, though since the game contest was never repeated we don't have any actual evidence for that, only logic. And "thrown out the window" is obviously an exaggeration, because some linearity will always be present. And people have thought various standings looked like a mess in the past that were later confirmed, so that doesn't necessarily mean much in the absence of evidence. But in terms of utility of these standings for any future (and highly unlikely to ever take place) best series contest, I doubt anyone would actually look at them much for decision making help. Such a contest would be too far in the future for this year's results to be overly relevant anyway, especially since the 4/5/6 series could very possibly flip-flop in any given year, and the top three are so far beyond anything else. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 7:31:36 PM | message detail |
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Well, I think a games contest would work a lot better if we didn't
have the games sorted by generation. That made for the most SFF-riddled
thing ever. With this, it's just a lot harder to avoid SFF, period. I
wish Ceej hadn't tried to be 'cute' with some of his setups though (the
SMB/SSB/Sonic 'trap', for one). yeah that's what I've been thinking for a long time, but when an "expected" result happens less often than an expected one, you have to question its usefullness. I'll take two examples: MG/FE and SSB/Sonic. MG/FE makes Silent Hill and Soul Calibur look near-equal, and very few people would take SH over SC. based on the current results of this match, here's our x-stats: SSB: 50.00 Sonic: 42.45 Devil May Cry: 24.73 Dragon Quest: 23.63 DMC/DQ is a close match that would have been near-unanimous in favour of DMC, yet they're 1% apart in the stats. there's basically zero in common between Sonic and Smash unless you want to dig out some Mario World / Sonic 2 and combine it with some rivalry or Mario/Sonic game SFF. when you're digging that deep to explain the numbers, I question how linear the stats are in the first place. don't mind me, just thinking out loud. or in text. whatever. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 7:34:31 PM | message detail |
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A lot of it is the jobber effect, and due to the Big Three this
contest if filled with jobbers. Also it does seem SFF non-linearity
occurs more with games, though since the game contest was never
repeated we don't have any actual evidence for that, only logic. kinda reminds me of the game contest, where the top six (FF7/OOT/CT/Mario 3/LTTP/FF6) seemed a cut above everything else. after those guys, the numbers get really crazy, especially when in division 128. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 7:35:41 PM | message detail |
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Saying DMC/DQ doesn't look right is a bad way to question linearity,
because DMC has clearly shown itself to be chumpish in nature. We'd all
pretty much take DMC to win with 55+% over DQ, many would say 60%, but
we've been wrong before. Bottom line is, who knows? DMC/DQ isn't useful
to bring up. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 7:38:53 PM | message detail |
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"isn't useful"? what does that mean? the whole idea was that DQ is far
closer to DMC than one would expect. the only fourpack that seems
reliable at all is KH's. again, I'm just rambling here, no real point. we're not likely to ever see a contest like this again so it doesn't matter, but if we ever have a game contest again I bet people will consider them. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 7:39:14 PM | message detail |
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I never got why SSBM was inducted into the 'Super Seven'. If FFX had
won that match and taken Division 128 (and it would have if it did),
there's no way we get the 'Super Seven' (mostly because FF7 makes
Division 128 look like fodder, of course). But I certainly don't see
SSBM as up on that tier, particularly after SSBB comes out. It makes
even less sense than the Noble Nine -- at the least, the Noble Nine
have stomped through a 64 character bracket every year and have yet to
fail. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 7/23/2006 7:40:05 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, but in games, Div128 wasn't that far behind the
Super Six...this is more like Villains in that #4 will be lucky to get
high twenties on the winner and the top three will be miles ahead of
the rest. --- Mustache...and green... |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 7:42:30 PM | message detail |
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yeah, I agree there - but there are games that are way higher than they
should be, Soul Calibur obviously being #1. if you wipe out division
128, the only games above 30% are Zelda, SMW and FF1. this is indeed
more like Sp2k5, the difference of course being that a lot of the
characters were held out of the contest since they weren't villains.
(or were named Magus. whatever.) --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Tai | Posted 7/23/2006 7:46:03 PM | message detail |
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MG would beat SSB, sillies. XD --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579987 - Wanna report a TOS violation? Go to Snack Attack and we can help! |
| SquallidSnake | Posted 7/23/2006 7:47:32 PM | message detail |
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It proved to be better off that Magus was withheld because there is a chance he could've been exposed before SC2K5. --- Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die. Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory. |
| creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 7:50:16 PM | message detail |
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"isn't useful"? what does that mean? the whole idea was that DQ is
far closer to DMC than one would expect. the only fourpack that seems
reliable at all is KH's. Being closer together than our expectations doesn't mean much by itself. It isn't useful because without two contests worth of data, there's nothing we can do in terms of questioning/verifying linearity in that case. And really, DMC/DQ isn't so obvious a thing, there have obviously been much bigger upsets/much more surprising close matches than that in the past. It's just not a good example. And many might also think Pokemon being so close to Metroid makes no sense, but that's a direct matchup. Surprises happen. And I've never heard of this "super seven" for games. I agree that such a thing makes no sense. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 7/23/2006 7:50:19 PM | message detail |
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You can take a lot of Div128 games down...but don't forget, there was
SFF in other parts of the bracket. MGS, FFT, 007 (maybe SotN), SM64,
and SM probably all have a decent enough shot at getting 30% or more on
FFVII (indirectly), which puts it more in line with characters, or even
better when you consider that at least some Div128 games are worth
keeping that high. --- Mustache...and green... |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 7:55:02 PM | message detail |
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No, it would've been funny to see people marvel at how 'strong' Magus'
division would have been and how unfortunate it was that he got caught
with "extremely similar badass character SFF" against Sephiroth. Or
maybe it would have been even *funnier* if the guy had overperformed on
him due to Sephy anti-voting, making his fall even more hilarious later. I like: Round 1: Magus > Kuja (wow, he was able to do that to KUJA?????) Round 2: Magus > Diablo (Diablo with a surprising percentage! Make Diablo go up against Luca Blight in the first round, just to throw people off) Round 3: Magus > Liquid Snake (probably would go as expected, only it'd be funny as it would be like Tidus/Shadow. Put Liquid up against Tenpenny and then Wesker beforehand just to be sure he looks good going into the match) Round 4: Magus overperforms on Sephiroth. Hopefully he gets a sprite here. <.< --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 7:56:23 PM | message detail |
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"super seven" was coined during the top 10 games list thing for those
six + SSBM. everyone had those seven on their lists and it came down to
what others you had in your entry. You can take a lot of Div128 games down...but don't forget, there was SFF in other parts of the bracket. MGS, FFT, 007 (maybe SotN), SM64, and SM probably all have a decent enough shot at getting 30% or more on FFVII (indirectly), which puts it more in line with characters, or even better when you consider that at least some Div128 games are worth keeping that high. yeah, Goldeneye jumped to my mind the second I hit post. MGS is a funny case though - like Diablo, it got just reamed by Final Fantasy for seemingly no reason. the only thing it has is the sharing of a console. I'm anticipating FF/RE to see if the same happens to RE. the best part is that if it does well, it's all because of RE4 and if it does poorly, it's all because of sharing FF's big console. I don't think SM gets 30% though, I doubt FFT does and SM64/SMW is a debatable match my mind. I don't think SM64 breaks 32%, not after it got SFF'd into the freaking ground like it did vs. OOT. I'm flat-out scared of anything involving M64. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 7:56:30 PM | message detail |
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And really, DMC/DQ isn't so obvious a thing It's as obvious as SSB not being on par with SSBM's strength. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 7:57:43 PM | message detail |
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oh, and you missed the part where Magus kicks the hell out of Kefka, ruining approximately 456% of the brackets. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 7:57:54 PM | message detail |
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I don't think there was anything funny in Final Fantasy/Diablo. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 7:58:29 PM | message detail |
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yeah, Goldeneye jumped to my mind the second I hit post. MGS is a
funny case though - like Diablo, it got just reamed by Final Fantasy
for seemingly no reason. To be fair, the only match we've seen FF in so far was against Diablo. That could very well be exactly how strong the thing is (as hard as it might be to fathom). MGS has a lot more evidence in its corner for an overperformance. Not to mention it likely matters more. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/23/2006 7:59:16 PM | message detail |
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Or...Magus could've gotten whipped by Ganondorf or Bowser. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:00:11 PM | message detail |
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Or...Magus could've gotten whipped by Ganondorf or Bowser. That would have ruined the whole thing. I'm trying to make Magus *more* overrated here! --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| cyko | Posted 7/23/2006 8:01:32 PM | message detail |
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y'know, i'm not all that surprised to see DQ right next to DMC. i don't
wanna rely on HM for sales numbers (*ahem* HM, we need you!!), but i
believe that the latest Dragon Quest game sold around 500,000 copies
while the most popular DMC game sold 1.2 million copies. that's not a
huge difference, especially when you consider that DQ is an RPG. plus,
it's a Square-Enix RPG series, which can only help on GameFAQS. AND
it's a respected series that has been around for a long time and spread
across several series. i wouldn't be surprised at all to see DQ take down DMC. --- "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:03:08 PM | message detail |
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You can use that exact same argument to argue Star Ocean over a lot of things. It's rationalizing. It would not happen. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 8:03:11 PM | message detail |
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the latest sold 400k I believe, while no other DQ game gets even close
to those numbers. (at least, not since the NES, but that's so far back
that I don't think sales really matter) DMC's worst selling game
outsells DQ's best. not to say that sales are completely indicative of
popularity of course, but a lot more people know DMC than do DQ. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| cyko | Posted 7/23/2006 8:07:04 PM | message detail |
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ah, but Dragon Quest has been around a lot longer and had it's games
rated much higher than Star Ocean. it is widely recognized as being an
influential and high-quality (although admittedly traditional) series.
and don't forget about how dis-proportionately popular RPGs are on this
site compared to the rest of the world. --- "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 8:08:37 PM | message detail |
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y'know, i'm not all that surprised to see DQ right next to DMC. i
don't wanna rely on HM for sales numbers (*ahem* HM, we need you!!),
but i believe that the latest Dragon Quest game sold around 500,000
copies while the most popular DMC game sold 1.2 million copies. Dragon Quest VIII sold 400,000 copies in America. Devil May Cry sold 1.2 million copies, Devil May Cry 3 sold, 730,000, and Devil May Cry 2 sold 620,000. No other Dragon Quest game compares to DQVIII's numbers in America even combining them all barely surpasses Devil May Cry 2. There is really nothing that points to Dragon Quest even coming that close to beating Devil May Cry. It is only connected to Square through the most recent release -- Dragon Quest VIII. Outside of that, it is purely an Enix RPG. That sounds strangely familiar, doesn't it? --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 8:08:41 PM | message detail |
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again, same could be said for SO. DQ8 isn't universally loved, believe me. it's rather cult with its oldschool approach. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/23/2006 8:08:59 PM | message detail |
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Dragon Quest's age and influence will go unnoticed by most gamers nowadays. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:09:59 PM | message detail |
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ah, but Dragon Quest has been around a lot longer Doesn't matter in the US. and had it's games rated much higher than Star Ocean. For the games that matter, marginal. it is widely recognized as being an influential and high-quality (although admittedly traditional) series. and don't forget about how dis-proportionately popular RPGs are on this site compared to the rest of the world. Square RPGs. DQ and SO are Enix at heart, and RPGs not affiliated with Square tend to bomb. Hard. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 8:11:02 PM | message detail |
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And DMC is universally loved. Heh. Really now, talking about DMC/DQ is a total waste of time. Let's change the topic to Final Fantasy/Mega Man. What %es would Final Fantasy have to get below/above for people to change their expectations for FF/LoZ, if any? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 8:12:06 PM | message detail |
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And DMC is universally loved. Heh. The people who dislike DMC and DMC3 are in a horrible miniority. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:12:26 PM | message detail |
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A helluva lot of gamers don't even know what Dragon Quest *is* (heck, I
saw someone the other day seriously asking where the DW series was...he
didn't know the DQ series and it were the same). It's *really* hard to
not know what DMC is, though...Dante may be more than the sum of his
parts, but the people who vote for him at least know what DMC is. And
he can get big blowouts, too (hello, Terra!). --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 8:13:55 PM | message detail |
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yeah, I really don't agree with the idea of something being stronger
just because it's "Square-Enix". DQ and SO have basically no ties to
Square other than in name. SO is a Tri-Ace game and DQ is an Enix game.
they don't magically become accessible to millions of gamers just
because it's under the S-E name. I really like the DQ series and have since the first one came out, but you have to be realistic - most gamers just don't know the series that well. I'd be happy if it managed 40% on DMC. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/23/2006 8:14:23 PM | message detail |
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As long as FF doesn't go below 70%, I'm confident in it winning. If it meets some of the higher expectations (approaching 80%), I'll start preparing a nice ditch to toss LoZ's carcass in. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:14:46 PM | message detail |
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If FF gets above 80%, it's all over for Zelda, beyond the shadow of a
doubt. FF can bomb in every subsequent match and it won't matter to me. ...it's hard to say when I start turning coat to Zelda...Mega Man could seriously surprise here (it is *the* Dark Horse pick for 4th strongest in the stats, after all). I'll be very worried if it can break 30%, and that's as far as I'll go. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 7/23/2006 8:15:37 PM | message detail |
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If FF meets or exceeds LoZ's percentage on MMX, it'll be very hard to
justify LoZ > FF. If MM manages high twenties, either MM is the #4
series, FF is in trouble, or a combination of both. If MM breaks 30% we
might as well crown a new champion. --- Mustache...and green... |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 8:16:06 PM | message detail |
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What %es would Final Fantasy have to get below/above for people to change their expectations for FF/LoZ, if any? my opinion of this match is that FF can't really impress, but it can disappoint. below 70% would be disappointing, but unless FF completely beats the hell out of Mega Man I don't think it will matter. the difference between 73% and 77% isn't all that much to me and is kind of worthless as far as comparing Zelda/FF goes. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 8:18:19 PM | message detail |
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As long as Final Fantasy is not low 70s or under, I'll be fine with its
performance. If it gets into the high 70s and potentially breaking 80%,
then Final Fantasy will dominate through the rest of this contest.
There will be no way to even think about giving Zelda a chance. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 7/23/2006 8:19:53 PM | message detail |
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FF must get over 80% to make me believe it'll beat Zelda, nothing less. --- Today's subliminal thought is: |
| CountCrazy007 | Posted 7/23/2006 8:20:25 PM | message detail |
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You know, I thought I had FF but it turned out I had LoZ. So... I'm
almost definitely out, anyways, but I hope LoZ wins despite what I
thought. :-p --- 4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest SC2k6 Noms: Captain Falcon, Seifer, Tails, Sub Zero, Nightmare, Tron Bonne, Ramza |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/23/2006 8:21:35 PM | message detail |
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By no means does Final Fantasy have to outperform Zelda in order to win. --- "...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow |
| cyko | Posted 7/23/2006 8:25:06 PM | message detail |
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well, that's my point. this isn't millions of gamers we're talking
about here - it's GameFAQS, the land of RPGs. on this site, i think
it's possible for a classic RPG series such as DQ to hold it's own
against a series like DMC that's more mainstream everywhere else. and speaking of the Star Ocean comparison, anyways - i would easily take Dragon Quest over Star Ocean. and i wouldn't expect DMC to be anywhere near either Metroid or Pokemon. i can't see DMC breaking 40% on either Metroid or Pokemon. so, i could see DQ holding it's own against DMC. anyways - for tomorrow, i will be disappointed if Final Fantasy can't break 80% against Megaman. well, not disappointed exactly - but i can't believe that it's a solid lock to beat Zelda if it can't match Zelda's total against MMX, even with any supposed SFF aside. i also predict that 40% of the brackets will have SSB and we will be down to 60 perfects. --- "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 8:26:33 PM | message detail |
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hmm... 51% for SSB, ...73 perfects, I guess. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| cyko | Posted 7/23/2006 8:26:44 PM | message detail |
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my opinion of this match is that FF can't really impress, but it can disappoint. heh, yeah, until Final Fantasy breaks 86%....... --- "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:28:59 PM | message detail |
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Give me one non-Square/non-Nintendo RPG that has ever shown significant power on this site. I dare ya. The closest I can think of is KOS-MOS, and I'm betting you've got some carryover from Xenogears there. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| cyko | Posted 7/23/2006 8:31:00 PM | message detail |
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Diablo =P --- "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson |
| transience | Posted 7/23/2006 8:31:50 PM | message detail |
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you can probably go a step further shrink the Square list to just FF
and CT. I suppose you can add Gears/Parasite Eve/Chrono Cross, but I'd
hesitate to pick any of those over, say, Devil May Cry. and I doubt
Citan/Serge is much stronger than KOS-MOS anyway. still wanna see Serge in a contest though... you never know. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/23/2006 8:33:27 PM | message detail |
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Even if I go and give you Diablo (who isn't all that impressive,
really, he was just lucky enough to get a division of chumps), there's
no comparison there. Diablo's got another force entirely working there
for him (is that Blizzard I see over there?). --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/23/2006 8:34:20 PM | message detail |
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SSB with 31% of the brackets. We will have... 54 perfects remaining. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |