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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 324

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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:31:05 PM | message detail
CJ did indeed have big support. I just know one thing: Next time Ness goes up against a newcomer, I'm picking him. I don't care who it is. >_>

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MnMZero | Posted 7/22/2006 9:31:17 PM | message detail
I didn't say that it was ALL SFF... I just said a tad of it is making Sonic look slightly worse.
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_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:31:28 PM | message detail
I think that, even if SSB was the one who was SFFed, it would still be beating Sonic. Sonic is average tier, SSB is wat too much for Sonic.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:31:39 PM | message detail
Mario/Samus ended up around 60/40 or so, and I didn't hear anyone *dare* suggest that match wasn't SFF. In fact, there was so much SFF there that Samus had to be raised nearly equal to Mario (but not above him, oh God no never above him that would make no sense).
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/22/2006 9:32:01 PM | message detail
No, it's because those games were played by the same generation.

Considering the divisions were divided by generations and that was one of the...what, four matches in that division that had the games from separate systems (not even sharing so much as a port), you would think it had LESS of a shared fanbase. Hell, I believe lots more people believe Sonic 2 suffered lots more SFF than Secret of Mana suffered against Chrono Trigger...and to me, that notion is ridiculous.
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cyko | Posted 7/22/2006 9:32:08 PM | message detail
so, who else thinks that we won't be seeing steve illumina until the next contest? >_>

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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2006 9:32:26 PM | message detail
I recall CJ having IMMENSE support from the board....

Yeah, but he was untested and everyone was curious as to what strength Ness gets from SSB. That, and CJ's picture made him look like Dave Chappelle.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:32:29 PM | message detail
Ness v. Barret gogogo
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:32:35 PM | message detail
Hey, I thought Kirby > Samus made perfect sense myself (because it's true!). I didn't see any reason for an adjustment.
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:32:53 PM | message detail
I didn't say that it was ALL SFF... I just said a tad of it is making Sonic look slightly worse.

I know, I just don't think it's worth mentioning.

I'd say the picture is having more impact on this match than SFF, even.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:33:02 PM | message detail
From Karma Hunter Posted 7/22/2006 9:32:29 PM
Ness v. Barret gogogo

NESS

GAMEFAQS ES RACIST LOOK AT CJ

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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/22/2006 9:33:11 PM | message detail


Considering the divisions were divided by generations and that was one of the...what, four matches in that division that had the games from separate systems (not even sharing so much as a port), you would think it had LESS of a shared fanbase. Hell, I believe lots more people believe Sonic 2 suffered lots more SFF than Secret of Mana suffered against Chrono Trigger...and to me, that notion is ridiculous.


Well, for whatever reason, Sonic acts strangely against Mario and company.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:34:17 PM | message detail
you would think it had LESS of a shared fanbase.

You shouldn't think that. How many people out there do you think haven't played a Sonic game? I don't think it'd be high? Plus, the Genesis actually outsold the SNES in America. I would imagine there were plenty of people who owned both (I did).
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MnMZero | Posted 7/22/2006 9:34:20 PM | message detail
In fact, there was so much SFF there that Samus had to be raised nearly equal to Mario (but not above him, oh God no never above him that would make no sense).

Well I wouldn't take Samus to beat Crono the way Mario did. That was the main reason why I was against adjusting Samus above Mario. Mario just looked genuinely stronger in that contest.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:35:49 PM | message detail
Super Smash Bros. currently has about 58%.

What percentage would it have if Ice Climbers, Mr. Game & Watch, and Pichu occupied the picture?
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:35:55 PM | message detail
Samus being above Mario is ridiculous, and I picked Samus>Mario. I don't care how much SFF Samus recieved, you don't put someone who lost a match above the character they lost to.

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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:36:00 PM | message detail
Mario/Samus ended up around 60/40 or so, and I didn't hear anyone *dare* suggest that match wasn't SFF. In fact, there was so much SFF there that Samus had to be raised nearly equal to Mario (but not above him, oh God no never above him that would make no sense).

Uh...duh?

We already knew for fact how strong Samus really was, roughly speaking. The match was blatantly SFF, no one would argue this. There is no data here, thus no reason to bring up unsupported stuff. Just as much reason to credit pic factor as SFF, or simply intrinsic strength.

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_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:37:21 PM | message detail
!!!
What are you guys talking about? How could you put Samus above Mario? That's the craziest ****ing thing I've ever heard.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/22/2006 9:37:43 PM | message detail
So do you guys think we'll actually get a character contest right after this? And if we do, how do you think the bracket will be? I hope it's as unpredictable as last year's...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:39:17 PM | message detail
But *why* wouldn't you take Samus > Crono by that much? Personal expecations? Let's look at her track record for 2k5.

Blowout against Yuri, untested ultra-fodder.
Blowout against Frog, super-overrated (but if he wasn't, you get something like Samus > Link or whatever)
Blowout against Ganondorf, got more than Sephy but some probable SFF (meaning it's unreliable)

So three matches, where it's either unreliable or SFF rears its ugly head. And Mario was the same up until Samus, the Zero match that was so 'eye-opening' for people has been tagged with SFF along with everything else.

So what's to say Samus couldn't do the same thing had she been given the chance? Samus 2k4 beats Crono 2k4 with 53%. If she benefits at all from the Ninty boost, her matching Mario is quite possible.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:39:18 PM | message detail
There will be a Character Contest after this, hopefully fairly soon. CJayC proved that you could still make a good bracket even after all these years. The setup is important.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/22/2006 9:39:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, but you shouldn't be able to call for SFF when there's not so much of a sign that Sonic should have really done better. I ask you to look back at my analysis and, when applicable, replace Halo with KH...and knowing KH got around 51.3% I think (not sure), tell me how this isn't reasonable. Shocking, maybe, but it's nowhere near unreasonable, especially since Sonic will probably rise a lil' more anyway.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:39:38 PM | message detail
Knowing Ceej, nominations will begin a week after this contest ends, the bracket will be up two months after that, and the contest will start next summer.

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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:40:20 PM | message detail
Sadly, I doubt CJayC will run the Character Contest from start to finish before Twilight Princess.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:40:35 PM | message detail
Actually, last year's summer contest started much sooner than anyone anticipated.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:41:23 PM | message detail
Sadly, I doubt CJayC will run the Character Contest from start to finish before Twilight Princess.

Now you're just being disingenuous. =P
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:43:05 PM | message detail
I doubt Ceej will schedule the contest around a game's release date, nor should he. There's always games coming out.

And the nominations could start a week after, or the contest could be much delayed after this one. It's unpredictable, and Ceej himself probably doesn't know; it likely depends on his future workload.
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_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:44:02 PM | message detail
No no no, I wanna know about this.

Why would Samus be above Mario? She was beat by Mario bad. Samus being above Mario is insane.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:44:27 PM | message detail
The only reason why is because she was noticeably above him the year before.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:44:33 PM | message detail
I love how lots of people are just calling SSB SSBM.

It's true. This is pretty much SSBM beating down the entire Sonic series.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:45:19 PM | message detail
Uh...duh?

We already knew for fact how strong Samus really was, roughly speaking. The match was blatantly SFF, no one would argue this.


But not rSFF, of course. No way Mario beats Samus in 2k4, he's clearly weaker!

There is no data here, thus no reason to bring up unsupported stuff.

Except common sense. We had no data for the Games Contest, and yet MGS2 > MGS tipped off a whole lot of people as to something being wrong with the results as a whole. You don't need data when it's obvious.

Just as much reason to credit pic factor as SFF, or simply intrinsic strength.

I don't care what you call it, it isn't right. DMC is not on par with DQ, and no matter what anyone says it's not happening. It's the same argument and the same pitfalls, and the same people are making them all over again.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:46:05 PM | message detail
Might be a bit tough to believe, but I am being sincere. Link may be my favorite character, but it's getting more and more difficult to get unpredictable matches in the later rounds. I'd trade a possible Link loss for a real crusher of a match that divides the board.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:46:09 PM | message detail
Holy crap at Sonic's update. It managed to do really well that time.

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_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:46:45 PM | message detail
IIRC, Samus vs. Mario has happened once, and Mario obliterated Samus. Putting Samus above Mario because she might be above him the year before is just stupid. I don't claim to be a contest expert, but c'mon.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:46:52 PM | message detail
Relatively well. It's the first time SSB hasn't increased its lead by at least 100.
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MasterOfHunters | Posted 7/22/2006 9:47:03 PM | message detail
Why would Samus be above Mario? She was beat by Mario bad. Samus being above Mario is insane.

Not that I agree with Samus > Mario, or even Samus = Mario right now, it is always a possibility. She can lose to Mario and still fare better against other characters than Mario himself would. Relative strength of a character shouldn't be judged solely from 1 on 1 matches, especially SFF'd matches.
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MnMZero | Posted 7/22/2006 9:47:07 PM | message detail
The only reason why is because she was noticeably above him the year before.

I still say Mario/Crono III was an anomaly. He looked weak enough there to have people debating whether Sonic could take him out.
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Tai | Posted 7/22/2006 9:47:09 PM | message detail
Only a 78 vote gain.
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:47:37 PM | message detail
It's true. This is pretty much SSBM beating down the entire Sonic series.

Not at all. SSB was wildly successful.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/22/2006 9:48:25 PM | message detail
I come back from finally seeing Pirates of the Carribean 2, and see SSB is whoopin that ass? Huh, interesting.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:48:39 PM | message detail
SSB was successfull, but on GameFAQs I would imagine SSBM being much more popular.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:49:42 PM | message detail
I suppose Mario/Crono III could have been an anomaly, though I wonder. Crono looked genuinely stronger (after all, he faced Link head on, and that strength carried over to 2005), and Mario appeared to be around the same level of strength he had been at before. Still, I guess it's possible Crono got more votes because people were just sick and tired of the matchup.

Or...maybe it's the "Character Who's On Top Factor!" The winner of Mario/Crono has always been the top option!
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:50:07 PM | message detail
I definitely think the original Smash would be successful in another Games Contest. Doubt I'm in the majority with that opinion, though.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:50:13 PM | message detail
I still say Mario/Crono III was an anomaly. He looked weak enough there to have people debating whether Sonic could take him out.

They're not necessarily joined at the hip, you know. Sonic 2k5 looks like he could take out Mario 2k4 and Mario 2k3.
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:52:08 PM | message detail
I have no interest in getting involved in this Samus>Mario debate (there's a reason I ignored it the first time around, it cannot be reasonably justified), but who can know how Samus/Mario would've gone a year before? All we have is pure speculation. Mario might've been able to beat Samus in 2K4, yet it's clear enough that Mario wasn't at his best in 2K4, and on a pseudo-rampage in 2k5.

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_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:52:17 PM | message detail
If you had a Super Smash Brothers Melee vs. the Sonic series, who would win?

SSBM
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:52:18 PM | message detail
And let's say that ostensibly next year Mario and Samus were to go out in non-anomalous matches to similar opponents -- Mario losing against Cloud, Samus losing against Sephiroth, and both Cloud and Sephy losing to Link. Samus ends up above Mario. Would anyone honestly take Samus to win the following year?
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/22/2006 9:52:36 PM | message detail
I wonder if anybody still have the nerve to argue with me when I say I don't think any Sonic game would break 40% against SSBM.....
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 9:52:55 PM | message detail
And jeez, I just saw the prediction percentage from the last match. What happened there?

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_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:53:30 PM | message detail
Nobody would.
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