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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 324

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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:16:54 PM | message detail
Ya, we were debating between mainly Metal Gear and SSB for a while. While Metal Gear will almost certainly gain the #4 spot on the stats, that in no way guarantees it as the fourth strongest series.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:17:03 PM | message detail
Honestly, just because Sonic is losing here doesn't mean the sheer amount of games and the diversity of fanbase is an incorrect statement or was wrong to even think.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:17:17 PM | message detail
Truth be told, Sonic and his games just aren't that strong in the contest. They had Shadow and that's it. They're like the Cubs.

Wait, SSB goes up against SMB next?! Noooo!
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:17:32 PM | message detail
The only Sonic game on the Top 100 was at #38. Sonic 2 was slaughtered by SMW. NOTHING is pointing to Sonic being a powerhouse series.

It was the only one on the list.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/22/2006 9:17:33 PM | message detail
The only Sonic game on the Top 100 was at #38. Sonic 2 was slaughtered by SMW. NOTHING is pointing to Sonic being a powerhouse series.

That is the absolute worst argument you could come up with. Sonic 2 not being many people's favorite Sonic game is completely plausible. It was the only Sonic game on the drop down list, which was essentially a requirement to make the Top 100.

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ccbfan | Posted 7/22/2006 9:17:35 PM | message detail
Wow, it looks like I'm gonna be perfect all the way until the finals when my stupidity kicks in and my Zelda pick brings me down. Doesn't matter if I picked FF though since I guess the final score to be in the 60 thousands. I bet over 10 people will have perfects.

Would be nice to have a perfect bracket though.

Only other one remaining I can even imagine that might bite me back is RE>SF. Kinda wish that happens since SF is my favorite series ever, plus I won't feel so bad about picking zelda.
cyko | Posted 7/22/2006 9:17:39 PM | message detail
Or--God forbid--Sonic games just aren't that strong! *gasp*

*GASP!!!!*

that's what i've said all along.

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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2006 9:17:55 PM | message detail
Wait, SSB goes up against SMB next?! Noooo!

It'll be SFF-erific at least.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/22/2006 9:18:04 PM | message detail
NOTHING is pointing to Sonic being a powerhouse series.

Except for, ya know, Sonic.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:18:32 PM | message detail
And Mega Man got *nothing* on the Top Ten list, and look at it. This is simply comparing DMC and DQ -- leave Sonic out of it. If you think DMC is anywhere close to DQ, you're blind. It's like thinking Soul Calibur could possibly hang with MGS2, or any sort of other ridiculous thinking caused by X-Stats blinders. It's stupid.
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:18:34 PM | message detail
I doubt there's any notable SFF in this. Maybe couple insignificant points of it.

And in terms of extrapolation, you really have to get into true blowout (doubling or worse) level before SFF adjustments start making trickle-down differences, like for DMC here. DMC is just weak.


Or--God forbid--Sonic games just aren't that strong! *gasp*

The only Sonic game on the Top 100 was at #38. Sonic 2 was slaughtered by SMW. NOTHING is pointing to Sonic being a powerhouse series.


Sonic 2 vs. SMW screamed SFF.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:18:36 PM | message detail
Unless Street Fighter gets the upset, this will end up as the most predictable contest of all time.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/22/2006 9:19:00 PM | message detail
I know with sff it won't directly be there. But we're usually smart enough to look past sff and determine a semi valid result. I was under the impression that, accounting for sff, smash still wasn't seen as in the running.

Seeing as we have nothing to adjust the stats with, we've been talking about who will finish 4th in the stats.

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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2006 9:19:26 PM | message detail
Unless Street Fighter gets the upset, this will end up as the most predictable contest of all time.

The Villains contest still holds the title of "most predictable champion" ever, though.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/22/2006 9:19:40 PM | message detail
How much does SSB need to get in order for Dragon Quest o be > than Devil May Cry?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:20:03 PM | message detail
Most predictable contest of all time? We had three matches that have had very low prediction percentages and the board has been horribly burned many times.

SC2K4 was the easiest.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2006 9:21:04 PM | message detail
SC2K4 was the easiest.

The Villains contest was much more predictable. Aside from Master Hand and Diablo the entire thing was a cakewalk.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:21:28 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm referring more to the board and the actual contest seedings. We've only had two upsets, and it looks like every 1 and 2-seed will make it to the Elite 8.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/22/2006 9:21:38 PM | message detail
SC2K4 was even easier than the villain contest. The only match we crashed and burned on was Sora/Hayabusa. AND IT WAS A 64-ENTRY BRACKET.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:22:07 PM | message detail
Aside from Master Hand and Diablo the entire thing was a cakewalk.

Sora was the only surprise in SC2K4, and we really should've seen it coming.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
FFDragon | Posted 7/22/2006 9:22:12 PM | message detail
Yeah, but there was Diablo and Hand and they burned everyone big.

SC2K4 was the most predictable.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/22/2006 9:22:12 PM | message detail
The Villains contest was much more predictable. Aside from Master Hand and Diablo the entire thing was a cakewalk.

As opposed to SC2K4, where aside from Sora, everything was a cakewalk. And the contest was twice as big too.
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FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/22/2006 9:22:15 PM | message detail
The Villains contest was much more predictable. Aside from Master Hand and Diablo the entire thing was a cakewalk.

*Predicted both paths correctly*

Damn you Andross and Wesker!

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CompmanJX3 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:22:25 PM | message detail
2k4 was pretty easy, but there were still upsets and there were no perfects, and given that Cloud and Link had each won once the final was up in the air (granted, contrary to most of you, I feel the same way about this final). Granted, 2k4 had twice as many matches for people to be wrong about, but this contest is still fairly predictable and there will probably be at least one perfect no matter what combination of reasonable outcomes happens.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/22/2006 9:22:32 PM | message detail
Oh, and Joe/Tails.

But that's it.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/22/2006 9:23:41 PM | message detail
Oh, and Joe/Tails.

To this day, I still can't understand how anyone thought Joe could win that match.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:23:44 PM | message detail
Heh, I forget about SC2K4 from time to time, probably subconsciously. My worst contest of all, that bastard was. But ya, the Summer 2004 contest was pretty freaking predictable.
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:23:54 PM | message detail
I don't understand what's so hard to comprehend DMC being a pseudo-chump.

DQ giving DMC a match is fairly sensible in hindsight. I wouldn't have expected it beforehand, but it's not shocking or anything.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/22/2006 9:24:16 PM | message detail
The only Sonic game on the Top 100 was at #38. Sonic 2 was slaughtered by SMW. NOTHING is pointing to Sonic being a powerhouse series.

Except Sonic, Knuckles, and Shadow.

That said, I agree with ya -- Sonic never had any clear favorite in its series, Sonic 2 dropped the ball against SMW and the only reason for SFF was "It's a rivalry!", having a sole Sonic game in the drop-down box (which is possibly THE fave of the series) only be at #38, having one of the least-favored transitions from 2D to 3D as far as major long-standing series go (we know the SA2B performance in the GC-GotY poll, and SSBM > LoZ:WW > MP >> SA2B), and Sega in general not being a particular favorite company (MAYBE top five) is just bad news for the icon.
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_Seer_ | Posted 7/22/2006 9:24:27 PM | message detail
I wonder what the toughest opponent Sonic could actually beat is.

Also, SSB vs. SMB is terrible. SSB coulda done somethin' in the contest! Grah. Oh well.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:24:37 PM | message detail
Ness/Jak also had people split, IIRC. Oh, and DK/Vivi.

Hmm... MAYBE I WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/22/2006 9:24:42 PM | message detail
From Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/23/2006 12:23:41 AM | #226
Oh, and Joe/Tails.

To this day, I still can't understand how anyone thought Joe could win that match.


Tails being behind Mario/Cloud and Cloud/Auron definitely didn't help. If Tails was as weak as these two matches pegged him, he would've lost for sure.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:25:01 PM | message detail
To this day, I still can't understand how anyone thought Joe could win that match.

Probably a bit of a mentality that Tails just couldn't win.

And Tails being underestimated due to SC2K2 and SC2K3.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
FFDragon | Posted 7/22/2006 9:25:32 PM | message detail
Over 1000 now.
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:26:24 PM | message detail
and the only reason for SFF was "It's a rivalry!"

No, it's because those games were played by the same generation. That is a pretty textbook "same fanbase" scenario, along with franchise and genre.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2006 9:26:36 PM | message detail
Tails was seen as weak (though he was always placed against top-tier characters) and Viewtiful Joe was completely untested. So, there were a lot of people that guessed wrong.
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MnMZero | Posted 7/22/2006 9:26:37 PM | message detail
Honestly, just because Sonic is losing here doesn't mean the sheer amount of games and the diversity of fanbase is an incorrect statement or was wrong to even think

Did you see me say that it was incorrect or wrong to think? I simply said I didn't see that as a big advantage over Super Smash Bros. I always thought that Sonic's weaknesses counterbalanced its "diversity". A glaring weakness for Sonic is that it basically went AWOL during arguably the most popular gaming generation in the 32-64 bit era. And that so happens to be the era when SSB was established. Sonic doesn't have the same advantages of Castlevania, which has been pretty consistent and had its biggest game in the 32-64 bit era.

Plus, as I said, I think a helping of SFF is giving SSB more of an edge.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 7/22/2006 9:26:49 PM | message detail
SC2k4 was pretty easy. I would have been top 100 had I picked Link instead of Cloud, and I usually do awful in these contests.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:26:57 PM | message detail
I didn't find Vivi/DK to be that big of a deal. People just underestimated Vivi, that's all. DK was and still is a chump.

Ness/Jak was debatable, I admit. The only thing that burned me was not foreseeing Bowser/Ness SFF because Jak was exactly where I pegged him to be.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 9:27:17 PM | message detail
DQ giving DMC a match is fairly sensible in hindsight.

No, it's not.

What on earth could POSSIBLY give you that idea? The fact that we've had virtually no DQ presence -- hell it wasn't even named DQ until recently -- in the US until DQVIII? The fact that as 'greater than the sum of its parts' Dante may be, he is still popular because of DMC and is pretty damn strong as a result? I cannot see a single argument for DMC being even close to DQ. Chump, sure. But not Dragon Quest chump.
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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2006 9:27:41 PM | message detail
That, and the 3D Sonic games haven't really given the series the "boost" it needs.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/22/2006 9:27:48 PM | message detail
Vivi was the huge board favorite, and Tidus/Shadow and Ness/Jak were split right down the middle.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
Janus5000 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:28:21 PM | message detail
*comes back from KH2 addiction to see ste- Sonic losing*

Ah, no wonder Sonic and Tails aren't in SSBM - it doesn't like them. >_>
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cyko | Posted 7/22/2006 9:28:31 PM | message detail
even though Sonicc is taking HUGE chunks out of SSB's percentage, SSB has hit the 1000 vote lead in a mere 25 minutes. Sonic might be able to break 45% before this is over, but Sonic's not coming back.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/22/2006 9:28:39 PM | message detail
To this day, I still call Tidus/Shadow the most obvious close match ever.

But for all the wrong reasons.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/22/2006 9:29:28 PM | message detail
Ah yes, those that picked Shadow pointed to his 45% performance on Mario as proof he could beat Tidus. Instead Tidus held a thin lead to edge past Shadow.

Ness/Jak was hard, as was Ness/CJ that following year. Split right down the middle.
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creativename | Posted 7/22/2006 9:29:35 PM | message detail
Plus, as I said, I think a helping of SFF is giving SSB more of an edge.

This match is going to finish in the 56%-60% range. Just how much SFF could there be? Unlikely to be more than a couple points; let's say 4-5 points at absolute maximum.

Given how uncertain the existence of it at all is, it's not really worth mentioning.
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Slowflake | Posted 7/22/2006 9:29:44 PM | message detail
It's hilarious how we all thought they were both powerhouses, and they turned out to be very, very meh.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/22/2006 9:30:19 PM | message detail
I recall CJ having IMMENSE support from the board....
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/22/2006 9:31:04 PM | message detail
I still call Ryu vs Sonic the most surprising relative-blowout of all time.


What? >>;;
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