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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 324

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transcience | Posted 7/23/2006 11:56:07 AM | message detail
I agree with that assessment. a picture is not going to give you 6%, not when it's freakin' Sonic vs. Smash Bros.
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xyzzy
ccbfan | Posted 7/23/2006 11:58:04 AM | message detail
if the picture was of other SSB characters instead of Mario/Link/Samus, do you think Sonic would have won? cause if you do, I think you're nuts.

Well since SSB is winning so easily, of course not but I think Sonic would be closer.

The picture advantage are mainly for people that like the series equally or have never played the series at all. So seeing two very recognizable characters on SSB side gives a huge advantage to SSB.
HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 12:05:56 PM | message detail
And Sonic 2 only outranks Devil May Cry by two spots. Stop bringing that up like it matters.

It's complimenting evidence, not end-all evidence. Besides, Sonic did win it didn't he? We all knew the rest of the Sonic series would beat DMC2 and DMC3 hard (besides Lopen, heh), so I don't see why you feel the need to discredit my example there, that despite being behind several other Nintendo titles, SNES titles, and Mario titles while competing with more of all three than Sonic ever had to within its choices, SMW still beat it by fifteen ranks.

Just complimenting evidence, not end-all evidence.....
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 12:07:00 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 12:07:23 PM | message detail
That so-called evidence has been proven not to be worth very much at all on multiple occasions.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 12:10:16 PM | message detail
Then ignore it and go back to my other points.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 12:11:58 PM | message detail
And once again, I really fail to see how Sonic gets this close at all when you're making a claim to it being so weak. Status isn't worth almost 20% in a Series Contest.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 12:16:25 PM | message detail
Status, numbers, age, and spanning the systems all do something though, apparently, and Sonic should be close to CV while SSB is a good deal stronger than KH.
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LessThan3Presea | Posted 7/23/2006 12:18:40 PM | message detail
A good deal stronger? By your previous arguments, Kingdom Hearts should be getting 45%+ on SSB.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 12:24:42 PM | message detail
---> Yes, like Halo, SSB is a two-game pony. However, SSBM is bigger here than either Halo game, and at least both of its games aren't confined to the same system, so that should bring less of an overlap than Halo did.
---> Also like Halo, SSB is one of the newer series in the contest. However, SSB still has two years on Halo as far as its series' ages go.
---> Some people would like to mention hype for Halo 3 helping it out, and so I would like to remind everybody who says such that SSBB will be featuring Solid Snake, so promptly shut the **** up if you think Halo 3 hype is bigger here than SSBB hype.
---> SSB is from Nintendo, likely the most loved company on this site. Halo is from Microsoft, likely the second-most hated company on this site (only behind EA).


KH may have one more game than Halo, but it's a GBA game that is nothing compared to its PS2 fanbase. KH is almost 1 1/2 years younger than Halo. KH2 doesn't have hype anymore because KH2 came out already (where it wouldn't have got into the contest without it coming out this past March), but it probably hasn't finished making all of its rounds with the GameFAQs fanbase yet. Nintendo > Square in both being loved and being less-hated. SSBM has meant more to the GameCube than the entire KH series has to the PS2.

I think that's noticable enough.
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LessThan3Presea | Posted 7/23/2006 12:25:31 PM | message detail
That's not what I meant. You've been saying that Castlevania is arguably stronger than Sonic, and if that's the case, KH is worth 45%+ on SSB.
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"A huge void in her heart. It is filled not by darkness, but kindness from others." - Presea Combatir, the Empty Soul
transcience | Posted 7/23/2006 12:28:09 PM | message detail
I'd give KH 40% on SSB. 45 might be a stretch.
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xyzzy
Yesmar | Posted 7/23/2006 12:28:10 PM | message detail
Sure Sonic might not have that many popular games, but how many popular games does Castlevania have? It did well despite that.

I'd wager that other than Symphony of the Night, Sonic games are significantly more popular than Castlevania games, and look how well Castlevania did.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 12:32:27 PM | message detail
And as far as trends go, it looks like Sonic had a small edge with the morning vote, but SSB has been making a killing with the afternoon vote.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 12:35:53 PM | message detail
I'd wager that other than Symphony of the Night, Sonic games are significantly more popular than Castlevania games, and look how well Castlevania did.

Here, thanks. I'd e-mail you a batch of homemade cookies if I could.


I've been a huge proponent of CV/Sonic keeping close, yes, but I'd still take Sonic -- that's the safe pick. We've also seen Halo and SC crash and burn in the first round this contest, and KH hasn't impressed other than surviving CV... all thanks to Starcraft, and the original Halo/SC/KH were all behind SSBM in the Game Contest and were made to be alot closer to SSBM than before. I know they're all now closer series-wise than that, but still...pretty clear.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 12:38:13 PM | message detail
I think Kingdom Hearts will impress against Metal Gear myself.

"Closer than the experts predict!"

</Lee Corso>
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Incompetence | Posted 7/23/2006 12:43:46 PM | message detail
I think Kindgom Hearts will win!

</wishful thinking>
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DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/23/2006 12:48:00 PM | message detail
HA! wait until SMB breaks 80% SSB!!! then Sonic will be past where he's supposed to be!!

plus, if this Mario vs. Sonic rivalry is supposed to create SFF, then will someone please explain to me how the bloody heck SHADOW the Hedgehog scored 45% against Mario?

any rivalry should help the weaker entrant perform BETTER, not worse. "rivalry SFF" is the most ridiculous form of SFF we've come up with yet. all of this is just people refusing to admit that Sonic's games just don't carry the strength that it's characters do. we've already accepted that certain characters don't carry the strength that their games do (see Kerrigan and Gordon Freeman). just accept it and drop it already.


Rivalry SFF is stupid, I agree. Now, same-generation, widely played, same-genre SFF makes sense, and that's exactly what we saw with SMW/Sonic 2.
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creativename | Posted 7/23/2006 12:59:59 PM | message detail
I think Kingdom Hearts has a good shot at 45%.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/23/2006 1:04:07 PM | message detail
Tough to gauge what percentage Kingdom Hearts will finish with. Had I missed last year's Character Contest, I'd say 45% was very plausible, but after Snake/Sora, it's become trickier territory for me.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 1:07:40 PM | message detail
I do not even see it getting that close to 45%. In fact, I spent about 1,500 words detailing why Metal Gear is going to get upwards to 60%. No idea how that compares to what others are suspecting, but I would wager it's higher than most of the Crew.

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ccbfan | Posted 7/23/2006 1:08:45 PM | message detail
I'd bet my account that Kingdom Heart would do better against SSB than Sonic.

But then, I'd probably choose Sonic over Kingdom Hearts.


Also WTF is with the Rivalry SFF. There was no freakin rivalry in the SMW/Sonic 2 match. The match took place in 2004 not 1994. Sonic at that point was already considered part of the Nintendo family. So same family, same generation, same genre, both old school.

That was blantant SFF. While its not as much as many posters here like to say there is but there was definitely some SFF. Probably like 65-35 instead of the 70-30.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 1:14:06 PM | message detail
60%? I guess you're either wagering on an overperformance or Fire Emblem gets dangerously close to Halo.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Sir Bormun | Posted 7/23/2006 1:15:30 PM | message detail
Hmm. It just occurred to me that SSB is going to get SFFed into the ground against SMB. Guess we'll never really know how strong it is, exactly.
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 1:16:23 PM | message detail
People are still arguing against SMW/Sonic 2 SFF? Why is that so hard to swallow?

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 1:16:26 PM | message detail
Really, it wouldn't surprise me if Super Smash Brothers held its own, relatively. It's possible that Super Mario Brothers is so far ahead that it'll look like SFF.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 1:16:52 PM | message detail
Because they didn't share a console, and everybody knows that is essential for SFF!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 1:18:07 PM | message detail
60%? I guess you're either wagering on an overperformance or Fire Emblem gets dangerously close to Halo.

I'm not even going to bother with trying to figure up where Fire Emblem ends up in comparison to other series. That is an awful way to determine a percentage because we have seen some crazier things already. Metal Gear does not really need an overperformance to get near 60%.

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yoshifan823 | Posted 7/23/2006 1:18:11 PM | message detail
How does one sign up to create one of these?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 1:19:02 PM | message detail
Not even factoring Fire Emblem into this, eh? Hmmm...I'm not entirely sold on it overperforming on Metal Gear or anything weird happening there.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/23/2006 1:21:30 PM | message detail
I don't think there is any one factor you could put on the MG/FE match, but I do think it is many factors, including a much stronger Fire Emblem than expected, that add up to get the result we saw a few days ago. I just never liked the idea of jumping to say it was Metal Gear's weakness when there was so much to look at in that match.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/23/2006 1:22:23 PM | message detail
Oh, it certainly wasn't Metal Gear's weakness, but there's only so close I can see Fire Emblem getting to Halo.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 1:57:03 PM | message detail
Rivalry SFF is stupid, I agree. Now, same-generation, widely played, same-genre SFF makes sense, and that's exactly what we saw with SMW/Sonic 2.

I agree rivalry SFF is stupid as well. However, that doesn't mean there was some other kind of SFF in Sonic 2/SMW. They were platformers from the same generation that were both widely played, yeah, but they're really different styles of platformers on different systems, and it's Sonic's #1/#2 against Mario's #3/#4...and I ask again, outside of the characters (which oftentimes is reason enough, I understand, but not this time), where can you justify the Sonic games/series being so strong?

In the Game Contest, we all remember the nomination-system: pick your favorite game on each system, then each system's highest-counted games were thrown into a fitting division. SMW was the 4-seed in its generation's division, and it was behind three other SNES games and had eight other SNES games. Sonic 2 was a 5-seed that shared the division with two other Genesis games, and Sonic 2 was easily the highest-seed of the three. Granted, it was one per series per era and S&K/S3 should be closer to S2 than SMW2:YI should be to SMW, but it's still to be noted. We'll come back to this in at the end.

In the Character Contests, we have always seen Mario > Sonic (except 2k2, and let's NOT get into that). Bowser would beat Knuckles or Shadow, Luigi would compete with both Knuckles and Shadow, as would Yoshi. Yet, in a rare time that we saw a Mario/Sega match, Shadow killed Wario then got 45% on Mario, despite showing the next year that Shadow should have only gotten about 36% on Mario. Sure, that's decent strength, but that's still a huge anomaly in Sega's favor there, especially for only being in one or two hardly-popular games.

In the Top 100 List, Mario had so much more to compete with than Sonic on the drop-down box:

Mario games - 7
SNES games - 14
Nintendo games - 27?
SMW's rank - #23

Sonic games - 1
Genesis games - 2?
Sega games - 5?
Sonic 2's rank - #38

I can repost all of those Sonic polls from earlier, if anybody likes.....


So we go back to Sonic 2/SMW, where we have established that -- even with the idea that Sonic > Sonic's games and Mario's games > Mario -- Mario characters generally beat Sonic characters. We've established that more people here have SMW as their favorite SNES game than Sonic 2 as their favorite Genesis game. We've established that -- in the rare times that we've seen Sega face a Nintendo character -- that Shadow drilled Wario and, more importantly, got 45% on Mario in a match that's a proven anomaly. We've established that SMW outranked Sonic 2 by fifteen spots on the Top 100 List despite much MUCH more competition -- no matter how flawed the list is generally looked upon as. We've established that Sonic games has rarely ever done well in a GameFAQs PotD, whether they be GotY polls or otherwise. We've established that Sega is not looked upon in the same way Nintendo, Square, Capcom, Konami, or even Rockstar is by GameFAQs. We've established that Sonic 2/SMW was Sonic's #1/#2 against Mario's #3/#4...

...and that the match was still going to be bad, no matter how you looked at it. Given Mario/Shadow, #1/#2 facing #3/#4, and all the other signs that Mario > Sonic and SMW > Sonic 2 here, I don't see how you could ask for more from Sonic 2 in that match-up. There's probably no SFF to it; it's just that low on the totem poll.




I'm done arguing this for awhile.
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plasmabeam | Posted 7/23/2006 2:25:06 PM | message detail
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/23/2006 1:38:13 PM | Message Detail
I think Kingdom Hearts will impress against Metal Gear myself.

"Closer than the experts predict!"

</Lee Corso>


XD Every time he says that it's a blowout. Gotta love Corso though.

*Breaks pencil*

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Best Series Ever Contest - 24 pts, Next: Smash Bros.
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) Eliminated from playoffs
plasmabeam | Posted 7/23/2006 2:51:07 PM | message detail
I can't see Mario demolishing Smash. I'm banking on that outcome looking similar to Mega Man vs. Zero from a couple years back. Just think of the match picture: Mario & Luigi vs. Mario & Luigi & 23 other Nintendo characters. I guarantee that will cause hesitation among voters.

On top of that, there's the fact that Smash is Nintendo's biggest current franchise. Having copy of Melee is a necessity for all Cube owners. Mario, on the other hand, has taken a backseat to Smash and Zelda in recent years. The only action he gets are remakes, sports games, the horrid parties, and NSMB, which won't have much effect on the match, since it's a portable game. Don't forget that Brawl's hype is huge, possibly right up there with TP. Factor in Snake, and you have a much closer match than expected.

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Best Series Ever Contest - 24 pts, Next: Smash Bros.
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) Eliminated from playoffs
HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 2:54:16 PM | message detail
SSBB hype should barely be considered here, and I don't think Snake fans will vote for the SSB series because Snake will be in it around a year from now.
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steve illumina | Posted 7/23/2006 2:54:56 PM | message detail
So the noobs are happy 'the arrogant Steve' lost today...

Well have your juvenile moment now....for in the next contest, I shall rise again, and I will rub it in with each and every win!

SF beating RE will be a good start to that...
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Score: 26/28. Next Win: FF...
FFDragon | Posted 7/23/2006 3:00:27 PM | message detail
Poor steve. Perfect first round and the -4 in the second round.
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plasmabeam | Posted 7/23/2006 3:01:17 PM | message detail
and I don't think Snake fans will vote for the SSB series because Snake will be in it around a year from now.

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=29459974

Will Ceejus put Solid Snake in the next SSB match pic?

From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/23/2006 3:39:03 PM | Message Detail
I would likely vote for SSB if he were to do that ...

From: Auronthelegend | Posted: 7/23/2006 3:57:26 PM | Message Detail
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 7/23/2006 5:39:03 PM | Message Detail
I would likely vote for SSB if he were to do that ...


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Best Series Ever Contest - 24 pts, Next: Smash Bros.
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) Eliminated from playoffs
Zombies Yay | Posted 7/23/2006 3:05:55 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: Metal Gear would have doubled FE if it was listed as Metal Gear Solid.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 3:06:55 PM | message detail
Fiction: I figure the match would have went damn-near exactly the same.
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plasmabeam | Posted 7/23/2006 3:07:00 PM | message detail
Fact, but only because Ceej wouldn't have been able to put 8 bit pics of Snake.

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Best Series Ever Contest - 24 pts, Next: Smash Bros.
Jacksonville Jaguars (12-5) Eliminated from playoffs
steve illumina | Posted 7/23/2006 3:08:02 PM | message detail
Poor steve. Perfect first round and the -4 in the second round.

Just you wait! SF is going to avenge me grrr!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Score: 26/28. Next Win: FF...
transience | Posted 7/23/2006 3:10:26 PM | message detail
Fact, but only because Ceej wouldn't have been able to put 8 bit pics of Snake.

this is true, hadn't thought of that. I don't think the picture cost any points though. it's not like you magically forgot what Metal Gear is.

I could see the name doing a slight bit of difference, but it'd be miniscule.
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rpgapzx | Posted 7/23/2006 3:10:55 PM | message detail
Picture Idea for SMB/SSB: Mario and Luigi vs. Metal Mario and Luigi


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SC2k6: 25/26 Perfect brackets left to leap: 118
Today: Bracket:SSB Vote: Sonic
HaRRicH | Posted 7/23/2006 3:11:39 PM | message detail
Yeah, plasma does have a point with that...but just name-wise, no, and the pic wouldn't have made a huge difference.
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steve illumina | Posted 7/23/2006 3:12:50 PM | message detail
The SF pic better have a Hadoken...I need all the help I can get!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Score: 26/28. Next Win: FF...
steve illumina | Posted 7/23/2006 3:13:28 PM | message detail
SF!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Score: 26/28. Next Win: FF...
steve illumina | Posted 7/23/2006 3:13:54 PM | message detail
500?
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst
Score: 26/28. Next Win: FF...
FFDragon | Posted 7/23/2006 3:13:55 PM | message detail
Resident Evil >> Street Fighter

Sure I may not be human anymore, but look at the power I've gained !!
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