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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 323

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transience | Posted 7/22/2006 12:04:35 AM | message detail
reminds me of when Samus supporters all showed up on the leaderboard toward the end of round 2!
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Janus5000 | Posted 7/22/2006 12:05:16 AM | message detail
Funny to think that my rough pre-contest predictions had SC pegged as third 'strongest' in its division... and that it could still happen, but with a different #1 and 2 >_>

Of course, KH will mess that up like it ALWAYS does, but hopefully it'll still look weaker than FFTA fodder.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
Janus5000 | Posted 7/22/2006 12:06:35 AM | message detail
We've been seeing around 20/50 picking LoZ for the victory, know we've rocketed up to 30/50 picking FF for the victory.

Given how this board thinks, you'd think those would almost be the same.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/22/2006 12:07:27 AM | message detail
Don't know if it's been mentioned yet

I only mentioned it an hour and a half ago!

Though nobody made any comments about it when I did.
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/22/2006 12:20:29 AM | message detail
To celebrate Castlevania's run, I shall soon be in possession of Symphony of the Night!

And it'll be my first Castlevania game, too!


Now you'll know the greatness of Alucard!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
junglebob22 | Posted 7/22/2006 1:13:28 AM | message detail
Very nice performance by Mario so far. Has any rallying for Warcraft begun?
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MKDS Friend Code: 085959-099689
is gamefaqs influencing the vote?-livinlaravers
Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/22/2006 2:45:10 AM | message detail
That's the best match picture so far this contest.

And Mario is doing MUCH better than I expected. I am happy.
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Back in my day, video games had one degree of movement, uphill, through the snow, both ways, and we liked it. - CJayC
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 7/22/2006 2:57:25 AM | message detail
I've sorta been expecting this from SMB. It seems that the games with the deepest roots really do have an advantage. The more often they have games the more often they hit a person when that game is in their game range. So each of the strongest games have had several chances to make a good impression on each person here. The balance is swong by whomever can hit the most varying demographics.

That's also why there's no day vote, no doubt.
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R.I.P. yoblazer33, murdered in cold blood by Sir Chris.
Detective in Sir Chris' Police
jonthomson | Posted 7/22/2006 3:42:55 AM | message detail
Oops, in the excitement of yesterday's joke of a match (pesky IE voters), I forgot to post analysis of SMB/WC.

Match 21 - Super Mario Bros vs Warcraft

Well, one of these matches went more or less as planned. Mario completely owned Madden as expected, amassing a mammoth 108K+ votes in a 92/8-ish beatdown, walking into the second round by passing the point of no return within thirty minutes.

Meanwhile, Warcraft managed to bust a lot of brackets by closing down an early GTA lead, taking the lead after about 2 hours and not looking back, never looking in real danger, yet never getting past 51% itself.

Obviously there was a lot of rallying going on in that match. Ceej stated so himself. We also saw stuffing, but mostly on the part of GTA. The match sailed to a huge vote total, becoming only the fourth match to surpass 125,000 total votes, and two of those other matches are infamous for nailbiter finishes as well.

Super Mario Bros is, of course, an entirely different entity to GTA. While we'd expect GTA to be fairly strong, it's no top tier series. Warcraft simply cannot hope to win this match. I believe it can get a fair chunk of the vote - we're not going to see the kind of pwning that Zelda laid down on MMX (or FF will likely lay down on MM). Then again, it's not going to be close. A doubling seems like a very nice number to go for, although with something like Warcraft, *any* prediction could end up looking massively stupid.

Bracket says: Super Mario Bros
Favourites bracket says: Super Mario Bros
Vote says: Super Mario Bros
Prediction: SMB with 66.67%

Fun fact of the day: jonthomson is very, very scared at the size of the potential SFF beatdown that Metroid will receive in the Zelda match, so much so he might just vote Zelda for comedy value

Match 22 - Sonic the Hedgehog vs Super Smash Bros

Well, here we have it, the last controversial match of the tournament. It's a shame really, but there you go. The last two round two matches pick themselves (especially after seeing just how dominant Resident Evil was in the first round, and just how... mediocre SF was, even though that was expected), the one seeds all get through to the last four, Zelda obv beats Metal Gear and FF beats everything. So if you've got a perfect bracket up to here, all you need to have done is picked Sonic in this one and you're about to create the ranks of the immortal. Unless you're stupid and have picked something crazy in the last nine matches.

Considering that there were a few people that were murmuring that DMC might have managed to either keep it close or, say it quietly, win (I'd gone for a conservative 61% Sonic victory), it should come as somewhat of a surprise that Sonic stacked up 80,000 votes and over 70% in a crushing win. Advantage - Sonic.

Of course, SSB came right back and trebled Dragon Quest, but that was to be expected. We're not in Japan, SSB failed to reach my oracle prediction, it wasn't even making the trebling for a decent portion of the match.

We should have seen right now that people are voting for series, not individual games. I'm writing this during Metal Gear/Fire Emblem, so we won't have seen CV/KH yet, but by then we'll know exactly how this one will go. If (surely when?) CV wins that, SSB doesn't stand a chance. If KH pulls it out, SSB might have a shot. I still don't think so - I love Melee to bits and it'd crush any individual Sonic game, but it's not a series. It's two good games. The whole collection of Sonic games ought to be better than SSB. It just makes more sense. Having said that, my copy of Sonic Mega Collection hasn't been in the Cube since Melee arrived...

Bracket says: Sonic
Favourites bracket says: Sonic
Vote says: Sonic
Prediction: Sonic with 52.21%

Fun fact of the day: If Sonic and Tails were in Melee, jonthomson wouldn't have bought the game. He wouldn't be able to justify owning a piece of software with both of his two least favourite characters on it.
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/22/2006 5:14:41 AM | message detail
I'm loving all the match pics, Sonic vs. SSB especially. It just works really well.

If Sonic beats SSB...

SONIC TO rSFF SMB!
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Slowflake | Posted 7/22/2006 6:18:42 AM | message detail
O_O

So, it turns out it wasn't Diablo being extremely weak. The problem? Neither is Warcraft, and that means Mario is a sick, sick powerhouse of doom and destruction. I'd go as far as to say it's been more impressive than Zelda thus far. Either way, the difference between the big three and the next one is going to be cataclysmic.

And I must have a hearty LOL at yesterday's prediction percentage. No doubt Halo must've been the big favorite. After all, MC almost was against Crono...
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
Slowflake | Posted 7/22/2006 6:34:05 AM | message detail
I just saw CJayC's second post in the sticky, and apparently 60% of the site's traffic is from IE users.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2343

Conclusion: Firefox users tend to vote a lot more than IE users do. I have no idea if this holds for contests, though.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
voltch | Posted 7/22/2006 7:03:10 AM | message detail
but CJayC still hasn't told us who the N-gage guy voted for.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/22/2006 7:05:03 AM | message detail
WC is really dropping in percentage now. It was getting close to 20% and now it's just falling quick.
Tjian | Posted 7/22/2006 7:23:41 AM | message detail
I'm back after my week long "break". Anyone want to give a very quick run-down of anything of interest that happened in the last 7 days?
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Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
charmander6000 | Posted 7/22/2006 7:38:30 AM | message detail
Mega Man easily beats Mario Kart

Street Fighter beats TES and SF > RE bandwagon starts

Resident Evil scored over 87%

LoZ breaks 80% and 100k for the second time

Pokemon hanged on with Metroid and finished slightly below 47.5%, over 100 perfects died.

Fire Emblem impresses everyone by not only out doing Soul Calibur, but also escaped the doubling.

After getting a lead of 1199 Kingdom Hearts comes back with the morning/day vote and won easily also weird enough 62% of the perfects took Castlevania to win.

3 Gurus are still perfect, but we will lose at least one tomorrow.

For Perfects after CV's lost Final Fantasy went from 20 on the leaderboard to 30. Hopefully we'll be below 50 after SSB/Sonic.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Phediuk | Posted 7/22/2006 7:41:48 AM | message detail
At this rate, SMB could get 82-83% by the end of the match.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Gooper Blooper | Posted 7/22/2006 7:53:22 AM | message detail
Final Fantasy is so screwed

>.>
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Back in my day, video games had one degree of movement, uphill, through the snow, both ways, and we liked it. - CJayC
HaRRicH | Posted 7/22/2006 8:03:29 AM | message detail
SMB is still impressing, though it's not matching FF/Diablo to me. Diablo's natural strength here should, by all means, be close to WC and I would think be a lil' stronger, and FF killed Diablo worse than SMB is killing WC, no matter what rallying is going on (which I'm understanding isn't alot right now).
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/22/2006 8:29:26 AM | message detail
Also, to go back to why I think GTA would be doing better right now, yeah, I could just say WC rallied too much and I'd be entitled to that opinion...but I went back and found the data I had from when HBO linked to GFA for Arbiter/Mega Man:



675 - Arbiter/Mega Man's vote-total (poll was up for about twelve hours)
125 - Mega Man's vote total
550 - Arbiter's vote-total
18-60 - Arbiter/Mega Man's scores before the link (don't recall what time the link went up)
23.08% - Arbiter's percentage before the link
81.48% - Arbiter's percentage at the end of the match
89.11% - Arbiter's percentage from once the link was up to when the match ended




Now, I know not every rallied WC fan voted for WC over GTA...but in a not-close-at-all match, 89+% of Halo fans voted for Arbiter -- a side-character -- over Mega Man -- an unhated legend. Now, when you think about GTA/WC, that was a close match where rallied fans were mainly fans of WoW -- the biggest and newest part of the WC series -- going against GTA -- often hated by the gaming community and won't be so well-liked by MMO/RTS fans. I'll simply assume 90% of the rallied fans voted WC, to be nice.

From there, I'm going to guess that -- had theire been no rallying -- GTA/WC's vote-totals would have been somewhere between KH/HM and SMB/Madden...so I'll just average the two together and get 114,848 for where GTA/WC should have been, meaning there were 12,370 rallied votes. If 90% of those were WC votes and 10% were GTA votes, GTA got 1,237 votes and WC got 11,133 votes. So, we subtract them...

GTA - 61,814
WC - 53,034
TOTAL VOTES - 114,848

...meaning GTA should have won with 53.82% (alot less than I hoped for, actually). So, if you extropolate from there with what WC's got on SMB right now (19.43%), GTA would have 20.91% right now. Not a big increase, but still noticable.




Of course, you may make your own adjustments anywhere in this, but I think everything I did was fairly solid and the only thing I might disagree with is rallied WC fans only being 90% in favor of WC.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/22/2006 9:45:31 AM | message detail
Have we talked about the FF/Mega Man pic being up yet?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse23.jpg

Not a bad pic, although I'm surprised Mega Man doesn't get classic NES sprites. I think Ceej messed up on the poll side, though.

Also, the Sonic/SSB pic is severely going to put my theory about pics not making a difference to the test.
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This was Ed Bellis.
Janus5000 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:50:15 AM | message detail
He probably switched the sides so that it would almost look like a fight from the older Final Fantasies with the main party on the right.

...Or he just messed up, figured that was a clever alibi and left it.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
bobby200614 | Posted 7/22/2006 9:51:26 AM | message detail
*can't wait*

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You know the kinda people that come to these Stacy concerts, these dudes have got energy to spare. I'm talking guys who beat off four times a day!
voltch | Posted 7/22/2006 10:22:36 AM | message detail
so is it possible for FF to not win this contest outright?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/22/2006 10:23:31 AM | message detail
Obvious question alert: where are the stats topics after 286 archived?

Looks like the Supercomputer crashed!

All I see is up to 286 on Ngamer's site.


Just follow the link in the first post:
http://www.thengamer.com/stats/
And ignore the "Last Modified: dates. They were always there. =D

I just saw CJayC's second post in the sticky, and apparently 60% of the site's traffic is from IE users.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2343

Conclusion: Firefox users tend to vote a lot more than IE users do. I have no idea if this holds for contests, though.


That poll had a glitch that would make your browser crash if you voted with IE. I'm not sure if the vote was actually counted or not.
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"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/22/2006 10:28:06 AM | message detail
...okay dude, those topics after 286 were so not there yesterday. o_0

THE SUPERCOMPUTER IS MESSING WITH MY MIIIIND
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This was Ed Bellis.
steve illumina | Posted 7/22/2006 10:38:54 AM | message detail
Revered on 7 continents...admired from Board 8 to LUE and back again...he is...

Steve Illumina

Making my way out from the curtains, holding a lil mic..."Greetings to all my fans and fanbabies, to the noobs and elites alike! I am of course, Steve Illumina, your resident satirical analyst..."

"As is traditional here on Steve Illumina Speaks, we begin with the Tale of the Tape, or shall I say, the Disc"

'You cant do this on Nintendo!'
VS
'SMASH! POW! BAM!'

Sage's Pick: The Pride of Sega
Fanbabies' Pick: Nintendo, et al.
Blast from the Past: Mastermind2K's Pick: SSBM

The adoring crowds applaud as I make my way out for today's show...and I salute them...wearing an old school Sega shirt.

"Today we talk about the 2nd of 3 trials of my perfect bracket...but to recap what happened in the first, The Trial of the Kiddies, the Kiddies pulled me through...as upstart KH defeated one of the greatest series of all time, the underrated Castlevania.

Now, in the Trial of the Casuals, it will be the casuals, the old schoolers, the traditionalists, who will band together to lead the Blue Blur past the one hit wonder that is all things Nintendo yet also nothing at all.

Hear me loyal fans...followers...and even you newbies in the back...! This match will show the world that one hit wonders like SSBM do not belong here in this contest...especially considering the litany of great series that did not make it, and I wish to salute them all right now, all the worthy series of gaming lore!"

The lights dim as the Jumbotron pays tribute to some of the many series that did not make it...showing screen shots of them all and solemnly tolling a bell with each...

Mortal Kombat!!!...Contra...Mana...Xenogears...SimCity...Command & Conquer...Doom...Quake...Unreal...Grandia...Ninja Gaiden...Tekken...Killer Instinct...Virtua Fighter...Time Crisis...Need for Speed...Gran Turismo...Donkey Kong...Tomb Raider...Bomberman...Pac Man...Age of Empires...Centipede...Ikari Warriors...Cruisin'...Final Fight...1941/1942/1943...Gradius...R-Type...Breath of Fire...Dead or Alive...Twisted Metal...NBA Live...NHL 'XX...Triple Play...Tiger Woods...Nascar Thunder...Ace Combat...and Chrono Trigger/Cross...

The lights return slowly...and my loyal audience claps enthusiastically...

"Now then...hear me...all of ye...! The trends of the contest so far...with the way series related to Sonic have performed...CV...MM...it will be the same here for Sonic. Sonic & MM are of the lower Noble class...beatable only by the Triumvirate of Mario, Zelda, and FF. But fully able to beat anyone else...and it is this law, Steve's 8th Law, that will ensure this victory tomorrow night...and lead me through the 2nd Trial, the Trial of the Casuals..."

"Now if you will excuse me, I must fire up the Sonic Mega Collection and play a round or two of Dr. Robotnik's Mean Bean Machine while we go to commercial..."
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Oracle Leader, Guru God, Perfect Bracket
Score: 26-0. Next Win: SONIC!
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/22/2006 10:47:30 AM | message detail
...k.
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dad wat are u on i just cant my mash
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/22/2006 10:57:45 AM | message detail
MGS3/2/1 would SFF SSBB. Book it.
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im kidding
Tai | Posted 7/22/2006 11:04:44 AM | message detail
SSB > Sonic

:-)
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XIII_rocks | Posted 7/22/2006 11:06:00 AM | message detail
I'm starting to worry about that match. I've had Sonic almost since the beginning, but I'm slightly worried.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/22/2006 1:16:07 PM | message detail
SMB has built its percent up very nicely.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/22/2006 1:16:45 PM | message detail
We've been seeing around 20/50 picking LoZ for the victory, know we've rocketed up to 30/50 picking FF for the victory.

Wow... I must have been really tired last night. That should read 20/50 picking FF for the victory, and now we've rocketed up to 30/50 picking FF for the victory.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Draco1214 | Posted 7/22/2006 1:21:25 PM | message detail
Eh, I'm still pretty confident in Sonic's ability to pull off an upset tomorrow. Sonic will at the very least come close.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 1:24:41 PM | message detail
If Sonic doesn't outright beat SSB, I'm wary of its ability to keep it close. The fact that Sonic's never won a match against anything Nintendo -- EVER -- is something that I have to keep in mind. I'd like to see him against some lesser Nintendo characters in 2k6, actually, just to see how he performs.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/22/2006 1:29:14 PM | message detail
It's just that the main argument I used for having Sonic over Super Smash Bros. is that this match is SSBM vs. the entire Sonic franchise. SSBM vs. the flagship franchise of a Noble Nine character. Even though Sonic has a history of losing (sometimes losing big) to Nintendo, I just can't see SSB blowing out Sonic.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Draco1214 | Posted 7/22/2006 1:30:39 PM | message detail
And also, Mega Man has the same problem, and he handled Mario Kart easily.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 1:31:20 PM | message detail
Well, Mega Man is stronger than Sonic, and Mario Kart isn't nearly as pwoerful as SSB, so there's a difference.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 1:36:08 PM | message detail
Wrong and wrong. MM > Sonic is almost as bad a rationalization as CV > Sonic. I may give Sonic to be on par with Mega Man, but there's no way in hell I give him the edge. And Mario Kart is weaker than SSB, sure, but do I give SSB 58% on MK in an indirect match? Hmph.

Although I do think Mega Man would have an easier time with SSB than I think Sonic would, despite being indirectly weaker. Mega Man has proven he's adopted Nintendo in the past, and I don't see his fans abandoning him for SSB.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 1:37:24 PM | message detail
I would see SSB getting 60% on Mario Kart. I never thought MK would be that strong in the first place. And I sould take Mega Man over Sonic as well.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 1:37:54 PM | message detail
And you'd be wrong. Dead wrong.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 1:39:33 PM | message detail
Maybe. Or I would be right, dead right. We really won't know until tomorrow.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/22/2006 1:41:26 PM | message detail
Not really. We won't 'know' at all, seeing as how whoever gets by will almost certainly get overperformed on by SMB. But I'm a wee bit distrustful of an evaluation of Sonic and SSB that seems to be colored by arguments of how SSBM is the best game ever and Sonic is a terrible series. Just a thought.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 1:44:11 PM | message detail
Did I ever say that SSB is a sure-fire win? No, I expect this match to be close. I just think Mega Man is stronger than most think. If it wasn't for the fact that Mega Man practically is Nintendo right now, I might've taken it over SSB if they met.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
rpgapzx | Posted 7/22/2006 1:57:38 PM | message detail
Also, the Sonic/SSB pic is severely going to put my theory about pics not making a difference to the test.

What do you mean? Sonic has the background advantage. XD
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SC2k6: 23/24 Perfect brackets left to leap: 124
Today: Bracket:SMB Vote: Warcraft
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/22/2006 1:58:31 PM | message detail
Eh, I don't know why people would take MM over Sonic. While I agree now that most people take MM as all MM series combined, I still believe that there is a sizable group of people who mark a clear difference between it an MM's side series, so it doesn't get the full strength that MM himself does.

As for SSB vs. MK...that's a questionable match, IMO. Both have their own advantages, and either could come out victorious. After MM vs. MK, I've been swayed somewhat in SSB's favor, but who's to say that MM couldn't do the same thing to SSB?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 1:59:01 PM | message detail
SSB has the character advantage, though. Link>Mario>Samus>Sonic>Knuckles>Tails.


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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 2:00:17 PM | message detail
As for SSB vs. MK...that's a questionable match, IMO.

No offense, but that's laughable. SSB may not win by much, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that it would win.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/22/2006 2:14:35 PM | message detail
Why's that? MK certainly has the advantage in the number of games and the age of its series, and all of its games are extremely popular. I could see some MK games beating SSB, and the rest could be enough to overcome SSBM.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/22/2006 2:17:04 PM | message detail
MK has the advantage in number of games, but it really is not that popular to beat what is currently (as in, this gen) Nintendo's best selling series.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL