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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 323

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Tai | Posted 7/21/2006 9:53:36 PM | message detail
Then, when FF opens a can of whoop-ass on Mega Man, the Mario > FF bandwagon well meet a train track that was torn over a chasm. :-)
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/21/2006 9:55:02 PM | message detail
This match is awesome.

So is everyone saying SMB has no chance at FF.

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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 9:56:59 PM | message detail
This match is awesome.

So is everyone saying SMB has no chance at FF.


...y'know, you confuse the hell out of me, because you constantly bash the board for changing their minds based on one match, but now you seem pretty convinced of something you apparently used to discredit - based on one match? What happened to Diablo being stronger than Warcraft?
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creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 9:57:01 PM | message detail
It doesn't have much chance, that's just the way it is.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 9:57:56 PM | message detail
I'll give you FF, as much as it pains me to do so. But...Zelda? Really? Has Mario ever shown any potential of taking that thing down? Zelda could never release TP or any other game and Mario could come out with SMG and release three different all new games in the main Mario series, each as enjoyable and innovative as SMB3, and I would still take Zelda to win that match without thinking twice.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 9:59:37 PM | message detail
So is everyone saying SMB has no chance at FF.

Unless you think Warcraft breaks 60% on Diablo (I don't), I can't see it winning.

And Super Mario Brothers really doesn't stand much of a chance against Final Fantasy. Anyone who's trying to say this is more impressive than what it did against Diablo is just kidding themselves and looking for something that isn't there.

Of course, you seem to be a proponent of vote totals mattering more than they should.
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Draco1214 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:01:14 PM | message detail
Didn't FF get close to as many votes as Mario did, when the poll started 15 minutes later and when FF was facing a much stronger opponent?
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/21/2006 10:01:27 PM | message detail
But Zelda? 50% of GameFAQs prefers Zelda to EVERY SINGLE OTHER NINTENDO SERIES. It's not even a contest.

Using that poll would be one of the least convincing arguments you could come up with. It is very, very old (2002 old). The site has shifted tremendously since then, and most recently we have seen Mario on a very big rise. If that same question with those same series is put up today, Zelda does not get near 50%. It still wins, sure, but it is not decisive like that.

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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:02:32 PM | message detail
Speaking of vote totals, at the 1:00 mark, this match has 12172 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

GTA/Warcraft - 12400
Zelda/MMX - 12992
Pokemon/Metroid - 11720
Castlevania/Kingdom Hearts - 13226
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yoshifan823 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:03:31 PM | message detail
The thing is, we don't know how strong Madden is. Is it stronger than Diablo? If it is within 10% of Diablo, Mario has a signifigant shot. And Warcraft is much stronger than Diablo, if only because it beat GTA.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:03:40 PM | message detail
I'd beg to differ and say Zelda still wins that poll very easily. What has Mario had since then to change things? Super Mario Sunshine? Puh-lease.

Didn't FF get close to as many votes as Mario did, when the poll started 15 minutes later and when FF was facing a much stronger opponent?

Pretty much.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:04:11 PM | message detail
Is it stronger than Diablo?

Is this supposed to be a serious question?
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/21/2006 10:04:20 PM | message detail
That said, I don't think SMB is beating Zelda or winning the contest. But using that poll just doesn't float.

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yoshifan823 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:06:54 PM | message detail
What you've got to realize is how many people play Madden. It overlaps all fanbases with the exeption of one, PC. PC vs. Console, we all know who wins.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:06:56 PM | message detail
The thing is, we don't know how strong Madden is. Is it stronger than Diablo? If it is within 10% of Diablo, Mario has a signifigant shot.

...hrm.

We don't know how strong Madden is, yes. But I would sincerely doubt anyone in their right mind would anticipate Madden being anywhere other than near the absolute bottom of the stats. There is absolutely no way in hell it is stronger than Diablo; hell, I'd say there's a minimal chance it's stronger than Harvest Moon. I'd even doubt it's within 10 percent of Diablo.

And Warcraft is much stronger than Diablo, if only because it beat GTA.

To use your logic, we don't know how strong GTA is. It could be as strong as Castlevania or absolute fodder. Logic puts it somewhere in between, which makes Warcraft look decent, but there's still no accurate way to compare - at least not yet - Warcraft and Diablo in this contest.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:07:39 PM | message detail
What you've got to realize is how many people play Madden.

But nobody on GameFAQs cares about it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 10:08:02 PM | message detail
The main things that would change about that poll is Metroid rising alot and F-Zero likely being replaced with Super Smash Bros. and seeing how it handles itself.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:08:14 PM | message detail
Harvest Moon would get 60%+ on Madden! Book it!
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Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/21/2006 10:08:44 PM | message detail
And Mario getting quite a bit more than 25%.

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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:09:31 PM | message detail
What you've got to realize is how many people play Madden. It overlaps all fanbases with the exeption of one, PC. PC vs. Console, we all know who wins.

That may be true elsewhere, but no one gives a rat's ass about Madden on GameFAQs. Well, some people do, but not enough to give it any contest strength. I was one of a few people who thought Madden could have had upset potential elsewhere in the bracket, but I saw the error of my ways - it's just not popular here.
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yoshifan823 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:09:38 PM | message detail
Users aren't the only ones to come to the main page, though. Think of all the Madden, GTA, Mainstream gamers who come here to find codes, FAQs, whatever. The boards may be against it, but the majority of voters aren't the boards.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/21/2006 10:10:12 PM | message detail
From Ed Bellis Posted 7/22/2006 12:56:59 AM #303
...y'know, you confuse the hell out of me, because you constantly bash the board for changing their minds based on one match, but now you seem pretty convinced of something you apparently used to discredit - based on one match? What happened to Diablo being stronger than Warcraft?

I'm not changing my mind at all. I've said for awhile that FF/LOZ/SMB have good chances to win, with FF being the obvious favorite based on the vote totals so far.

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YoAriel33 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:11:08 PM | message detail
The only series Madden might be able to take is Shadow Hearts. I mean, let's get real, everyone. Well over half the voters don't even care about football. No, not just Madden. FOOTBALL.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:11:22 PM | message detail
As far as winning the contest, Super Mario Brothers has NO chance. The strongest Mario game is still behind two Zelda games and couldn't even break 60% on what could either be the 3rd or maybe 4th strongest Zelda.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:12:07 PM | message detail
Madden vs. Shadow Hearts would pretty much be the Gordon Freeman vs CATS of this contest.
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Edrees22 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:14:13 PM | message detail
All I know is that it's freakin sweet to see Warcraft get owned. Take that!
SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:14:34 PM | message detail
And I know somebody is going to want to mention something about weaker individual games being part of a stronger series, but Mario/Zelda is different. You're talking about SFF there.
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Pathetique | Posted 7/21/2006 10:15:40 PM | message detail
For the record, I also don't think there's any way in hell that Super Mario Bros. beats Zelda. But I don't see FF doing it, either.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:16:08 PM | message detail
And I don't see FF not doing it! What a coincidence!
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
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Pathetique | Posted 7/21/2006 10:16:38 PM | message detail
Shall we duel!?
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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:17:33 PM | message detail
Obvious question alert: where are the stats topics after 286 archived?
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 10:17:52 PM | message detail
*turns on the Supercomputer*
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Some stories can't be told by words. Some legends are meant to die.
Knowing your enemy is the quickest path to victory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/21/2006 10:22:09 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Final Fantasy had 30 of the top 50 on the leaderboard, with a few SMB and one guy who has Metal Gear winning it all.
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transience | Posted 7/21/2006 10:22:57 PM | message detail
holy jesus is Warcraft getting destroyed. I can't say it's surprising, but just thinking about GTA getting killed like this makes me laugh. out of curiosity, would people expect a higher percentage out of GTA?

I've been thinking for the last day or two that Mario, Zelda and FF are so much stronger than the other series' in this contest that extrapolating through them may end up being meaningless. I mean seriously, is anyone going to break 30%? I'm even starting to wonder if Metal Gear has a shot.

also, 29.9%? I know it's been said a few times, but dayum. looks like the likely ultimate loser is also the ultimate bracket buster. I wonder what kind of percentage MG has.
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:25:40 PM | message detail
out of curiosity, would people expect a higher percentage out of GTA?

Yes, but not by much at all. I fully admit that my notion of GTA>Metal Gear was completely, completely wrong.

I mean seriously, is anyone going to break 30%? I'm even starting to wonder if Metal Gear has a shot.

No need to wonder; it doesn't. There's no need to place Metal Gear on a higher plateau than the rest. Zelda is going to rip it to shreds.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:27:11 PM | message detail
I agree with everything in yo's post. It wouldn't surprise me to see GTA do a bit better, but only by a few percentage points. And I sincerely doubt Metal Gear will manage to make it to 30% in the stats; might as well just extrapolate from the fourth-strongest series at this rate.
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transience | Posted 7/21/2006 10:28:49 PM | message detail
here, let's giggle at my projected x-stats that I made before the contest started.

Final Fantasy 50.00
Zelda 47.55
Mario 42.37
Metal Gear 35.07
GTA 32.20
Mario Kart 31.11

Mega Man 30.80
Kingdom Hearts 30.58
Resident Evil 30.44
Halo 30.43
Soul Calibur 28.43
Castlevania 28.21
Diablo 27.00
SSB 24.19
Warcraft 24.19
Metroid 23.45
Mega Man X 22.30
Street Fighter 22.25
Sonic 21.55
Elder Scrolls 18.98
Kirby 16.94
Pokemon 16.56

Fire Emblem 16.52
Harvest Moon 15.77
Devil May Cry 15.46
SIlent Hill 14.98
Star Ocean 14.80
Civilization 14.27
Suikoden 14.05
Dragon Quest 13.76
Shadow Hearts 11.90
Madden 8.94

bold = lol

well they're all lol, but those ones especially.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:28:59 PM | message detail
Looks like the Supercomputer crashed!

All I see is up to 286 on Ngamer's site.
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Yesmar | Posted 7/21/2006 10:30:36 PM | message detail
I'm gonna have to agree that the top 3 series are way above anything else. There's no way I can see GTA being this weak on this web site.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 10:30:56 PM | message detail
Personally, I plan to look at GTA as if it gets about 56% on WC, meaning that, if WC finishes at 18.05%...

*does the x-stat thing*

...GTA would be at 20.51% on SMB right now...more believable, but damn, I expected some more.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/21/2006 10:31:55 PM | message detail
Soul Calibur > Castlevania?
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:32:47 PM | message detail
Heh, it's funny how closely these X-Stats might resemble the ones from last year's 32-entrant bracket. Now, only one question remains unanswered: who's Diablo?
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XxSoulxX | Posted 7/21/2006 10:33:14 PM | message detail
Diablo > SSB?

You know, I am a full fledged believer that Diablo is pretty strong, but strong enough to take on Nintendo?
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transience | Posted 7/21/2006 10:33:48 PM | message detail
SSB's got this little thing called Mario that skews its x-stat value.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 10:34:04 PM | message detail
holy jesus is Warcraft getting destroyed. I can't say it's surprising, but just thinking about GTA getting killed like this makes me laugh. out of curiosity, would people expect a higher percentage out of GTA?

Absolutely not. I went over this before the match. GTA would not be doing any better. (unless you want to count something like 0.05%)
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/21/2006 10:35:40 PM | message detail
Now, only one question remains unanswered: who's Diablo?

If you look closely enough, you can still see some identifying marks on Diablo's corpse over there.

Seriously though, I'm not sure what you're asking.
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Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:36:14 PM | message detail
I AM DIABLO
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gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:37:06 PM | message detail
I'm asking which entrant will end up as the fourth strongest in the X-Stats. Obviously, Metal Gear is the favorite at the moment, but I wouldn't call that a guarantee.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 10:40:42 PM | message detail
MG's only competition for #4 STAT-WISE is KH and RE. Sonic may stand a shot if it beats SSB...but still, I like MG's chances.
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MnMZero | Posted 7/21/2006 10:41:04 PM | message detail
It doesn't really matter. Whatever the fourth strongest is, it's going to look pathetic next to the big 3. On a side note, I'm not surprised at SMB's performance at all. I had a feeling it would be an absolute powerhouse in this contest. Do people still think that SMB can't break 40% on FF?
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