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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 323

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ccbfan | Posted 7/21/2006 7:30:26 PM | message detail
Except the Pacific Coast might be enough to counter balance the European effect. It's only 9:00 PM for them; it's probably the reason why shifts are so subtle now.


Hence why Castlevania didn't get a majority of it's lead until until an hour into the poll. KH and Castlevania was neck to neck at the start. Possibly the pacfic coast was what kept KH in at the start.
Tediz247 | Posted 7/21/2006 7:35:18 PM | message detail
Leon gets boxed again!!

Though not nearly as badly as before. Still, he seriously needs to make an account name involving a box, possibly with Snake as well.
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CountCrazy007 | Posted 7/21/2006 7:55:10 PM | message detail
How does this reflect on the char contest?

CV beat Halo. Warcraft beat GTA. CV gave KH a run for its money. Does this reflect on the characters? GIVE ME YOUR OPINIONS.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/21/2006 7:56:35 PM | message detail
YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE OPINION
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Tai | Posted 7/21/2006 8:10:34 PM | message detail
CJayC's sticky reminds me of an incident on another forum (the SomethingAwful forums, for those interested). Basically the data administrator (a user named "radium", who makes sure the forums run smoothly) did a poll on what Internet browsers people were using.

One guy was using WebTV, he was banned because, in the words of radium "What the hell?".


XD
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 8:14:42 PM | message detail
So how are people feeling about Sonic/SSB, now that KH has finished the job?
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shadow8021 | Posted 7/21/2006 8:15:10 PM | message detail
Boy, I hope Mario crushes Warcraft. I want GTA to look terrible after it messed up my bracket.
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Series Contest Score: 20/22
Today's Pick: Halo, Today's Vote: Castlevania
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/21/2006 8:16:15 PM | message detail
So how are people feeling about Sonic/SSB, now that KH has finished the job?

Still as confident as ever about a Sonic victory.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
shadow8021 | Posted 7/21/2006 8:16:16 PM | message detail
Well, with a battle pic like that and legions of Nintendo fanboys, Sonic doesn't look so hot now, BUT I still have faith.
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Series Contest Score: 20/22
Today's Pick: Halo, Today's Vote: Castlevania
HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 8:31:08 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts with 46% of the brackets.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 8:35:11 PM | message detail
Sonic was never going to get an sort of an advantage in the match picture against something like SSBM (heck, I think SSBM had the pic advantage in every single one of its matches in SpC2k4). This isn't every single Nintendo character ever vs. Tidus, this is Sonic, Tails, and Knuckles against Mario, Link, and Samus. Yeah, every one of those characters outdoes the previous three, but it's not too different from Mega Man, Protoman, and Bass against Mario, Luigi, and Bowser (Mega Man > Luigi and Bowser by a bit, but Protoman and Bass are bottom feeders compared to Tails and Knuckles). And the parallels drawn to Mega Man/Mario Kart, by picture (or your arguments, HaRR), don't exactly inspire too much faith.
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Draco1214 | Posted 7/21/2006 8:36:20 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts with 45% of the brackets.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/21/2006 8:42:58 PM | message detail
I still believe Sonic will beat Super Smash Brothers. I don't see why putting Link, Samus, and Mario on the match picture suddenly makes the result change. After all, nearly every single one of you says that SSBM would have still beaten FFX even if the picture were NOT so one-sided (I personally find that to be hypocrisy/extreme bias, but whatever).


Honestly, it's not like Sonic is at an extreme disadvantage anyway. That side of the picture looks awesome as well.
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cyko | Posted 7/21/2006 8:44:17 PM | message detail

So how are people feeling about Sonic/SSB, now that KH has finished the job?

Still as confident as ever about a SSB victory.

and KH with 51% of the brackets!!

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Draco1214 | Posted 7/21/2006 8:44:31 PM | message detail
I'm still confident in a Sonic upset. Mega Man got 58% on Mario Kart even with Mario, Luigi, and Bowser being in the pic. It really won't matter much in the end.
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steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 8:45:27 PM | message detail
I have survived the first of the 3 Trials of My Bracket...what a match indeed...

Sonic, get yourself all warmed up! You got work to do Sunday baby... :)
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Score: 24-0. Next Win: MARIO!
SuperiorSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 8:45:28 PM | message detail
Honestly, it's not like Sonic is at an extreme disadvantage anyway. That side of the picture looks awesome as well.

Indeed.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 8:46:27 PM | message detail
I'm still confident in a Sonic upset. Mega Man got 58% on Mario Kart even with Mario, Luigi, and Bowser being in the pic. It really won't matter much in the end.

You said it all right there.

And KH with 47.78% of the brackets!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 24-0. Next Win: MARIO!
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/21/2006 8:46:28 PM | message detail
And I have to give kudos to CJayC on both Sonic/SSB and FF/Mega Man. Both extremely well done (though Mega Man's side could use a little less Bass!).

I wonder if switching the positioning was intentional. Somebody mentioning that the old school FF parties were always on the right side anyway. Though it wouldn't be the first time if CJayC let a mistake like this slide. One of the Link/Sephiroth pictures had the two of them on the wrong side.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/21/2006 8:47:14 PM | message detail
Hmmm...Shooting high worked for me last time. Why not here again? I'll take a risk and say...

Kingdom Hearts with 52.67% of the brackets.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 8:48:12 PM | message detail
Boy, I hope Mario crushes Warcraft. I want GTA to look terrible after it messed up my bracket.

I have a feeling that after Mario obliterates Warcraft, people will say "Warcraft has been exposed!" and say vote rallying inflated its value, and thus deflated GTA.

However let me be the first to say that this will most likely be total nonsense. Warcraft did win due to rallying, but it would've been within a few points of GTA anyway. Mario will obliterate Warcraft I think - but it would do the same to GTA.

I said before how much of a jobber GTA would look like against Final Fantasy, and it would look extremely bad against Mario too. So I hope nobody pulls the "GTA would be doing better than this!" card in the next match.

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Draco1214 | Posted 7/21/2006 8:48:49 PM | message detail
Eh, I have a feeling KH's prediction percentage will be rather low. Not because of Castlevania, but because of Halo. Casual bracketmakers love to overestimate Halo.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 8:49:50 PM | message detail
I'm not giving any credit to the picture in Sonic/SSB unless it's decided by, like, twenty votes. Both sides are awesome.
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steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 8:50:02 PM | message detail
Id pay money to see Final Fantasy beat the living snot out of GTA
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 24-0. Next Win: MARIO!
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/21/2006 8:50:43 PM | message detail
Oh I'm definitely gonna go down. I picked Zelda>FF :(.

Also the amount of confidence and arrogance the guru's had with these 3 pic was crazy. They acted they there's no chance it could be wrong and many attacked people that chose the opposite. (The funniest was the Halo>>>KH -> Castlevania >>>>>>KH) IMO you guys were much more annoying than Steve. At least he has a reason to boast.


I disagree. I've not seen much of this vaunted "stat topix elitism." I don't think they were arrogant, they were merely confident in their picks. They disagreed and argued with people, but I think they did it in a respectful manner. If you can't stand to have your predictions tested against what is known, you shouldn't be posting in stats topics.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 8:51:29 PM | message detail
And KH > CV isn't exactly inspiring, but the fact that CV was able to keep it much closer than Alucard was against Sora is the proof that the multiple games add a LOT to Castlevania's strength. And this is post-KH2 Kingdom Hearts, to boot, as opposed to pre-KH2 Sora. Honestly, if CV had edged out a win it wouldn't have changed much, either. If it had *crushed* Kingdom Hearts or vice-versa we might have something to say, but hey.

Sonic's already shown he was probably stronger than he's ever been in the character contest, and I'd bet anything his games would dominate Castlevania and edge out Mega Man. That's the main thing to me -- do I think SSB would get 58% on Mario Kart indirectly? Hard to say.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/21/2006 8:51:46 PM | message detail
KH with 40% of the brackets.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/21/2006 8:51:58 PM | message detail
They acted they there's no chance it could be wrong and many attacked people that chose the opposite. (The funniest was the Halo>>>KH -> Castlevania >>>>>>KH) IMO you guys were much more annoying than Steve. At least he has a reason to boast.

Actually, I had Kingdom Hearts over Halo all along, and I struggled greatly on KH/Castlevania.
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creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 8:52:56 PM | message detail
After all, nearly every single one of you says that SSBM would have still beaten FFX even if the picture were NOT so one-sided (I personally find that to be hypocrisy/extreme bias, but whatever).

I don't think that was as one-sided a debate as you make it seem. I was certainly one of those saying (and I still maintain) that Final Fantasy X could've won if the picture hadn't been so absurd (at least throw Auron in for crying out loud).

But while it is true that SSB by its very nature will always have the picture advantage, the Sonic vs. SSB pic isn't the same. Because I think Sprite Link+Mario+Samus might be even better than the who cast, plus those sprites aren't actually in the game. Whereas you can only complain about official artwork so much (the bigger problem with Final Fantasy X was that you had a huge Tidus all by himself).
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 8:56:32 PM | message detail
I might have been arrogant in GTA/WC...

*checks my analysis for it*

...nope, I actually said it'd win the contest if it beat GTA, and I simply said I don't think it would happen. I know I wasn't arrogant about MM/MK though, and I gave the most credit to CV in our CV/Halo analyses...but if CV beat Halo worse than I thought KH could -- both before and after KH/HM -- how could I not take CV over KH? I won't speak on behalf of everyone giving analyses, but for the most part, just because we have the same idea of who'll win doesn't mean that we're all arrogant and such -- it's just that we came to the same conclusion.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 7/21/2006 8:57:20 PM | message detail
Anyone think that Halo anti-votes increased thanks to the Nintendo influx? I hate having to resort to anti-votes to explain Halo's weakness in this tournament, but something very weird happened....
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 8:58:03 PM | message detail
*Super Mario RPG SPOILERS*



Hey guys, make sure you use a spoiler warning when saying Mallow isn't a tadpole! I just got modded with a 3KL for not doing so!



*END SPOILERS*



The more you know.
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creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 8:58:50 PM | message detail
Because I think Sprite Link+Mario+Samus might be even better than the who cast

Whole cast I meant.
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HaRRicH | Posted 7/21/2006 8:58:51 PM | message detail
Oh, and for what it's worth, most of us had KH winning the four-pack winning in our brackets. It's just that the trends during the contest threw us off...not an excuse, but it's not like we were always wrong.
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cyko | Posted 7/21/2006 8:59:04 PM | message detail
heh, i just realized that if SSB beats Sonic and MG beats KH, we may not have a perfect bracket again.

and for tomorrow, i really have no idea where Warcraft will land. i see prediction ranging from 60% to 80% for SMB. i'm gonna guess that SMB winds up with 73-75% since Warcraft's rallying should have a less of an impact when it's getting blown out. (see Diablo vs. Ganondorf) but, if it's a boring day in Azeroth, Warcraft could do better than i expect.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 8:59:27 PM | message detail
Oh Leon, you don't know how hard I'm laughing right now.

Uh...SAMUS IS NOT A MAN
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 8:59:36 PM | message detail
I disagree. I've not seen much of this vaunted "stat topix elitism." I don't think they were arrogant, they were merely confident in their picks. They disagreed and argued with people, but I think they did it in a respectful manner. If you can't stand to have your predictions tested against what is known, you shouldn't be posting in stats topics.

Stat topic elitism DID happen a lot in prior years. And I was guilty of it too. But it has died down. My analysis here is of a unique writing style, for I dont want it to be like all the rest. The long time stats guys like me, Phediuk, Ulti, etc, have our own styles we are known for, and the (mostly) friendly debate and banter is what makes this thread the best place to be on this site. Its noobs and wannabe stat elites that cause the trouble, that and the goofs who try to set records for numbers of ALT accounts.

I bash noobs and fanbabies as a collective group and in a humorous way, as I also do with Nintendites, Square Legions, etc. No group is immune from being poked fun at in my threads. And within its core, there is always logic to be found.

As for my perfect...I am proud to be the only 'stats elitist' with a perfect at this point. And I will have all the fun I can with it, cause well, I earned it kiddies!

Go Mario! :)
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Score: 24-0. Next Win: MARIO!
creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 8:59:43 PM | message detail
Anyone think that Halo anti-votes increased thanks to the Nintendo influx? I hate having to resort to anti-votes to explain Halo's weakness in this tournament, but something very weird happened....

If you mean anti-votes as in simply actual declining strength, then possibly. If you mean a static anti-vote base, then no.
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SquallidSnake | Posted 7/21/2006 8:59:51 PM | message detail
Why would those two instances stop a perfect bracket?
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/21/2006 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Super Mario Bros. 100% 8
Warcraft 0% 0
TOTAL VOTES 8

XD
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Super Mario Bros. vs. WarCraft - Bracket: SMB - Vote: SMB (22/24)
cyko | Posted 7/21/2006 9:00:41 PM | message detail
Super Mario Bros. 100% 8
Warcraft 0% 0
TOTAL VOTES 8


OUCH.

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
Master Moltar | Posted 7/21/2006 9:00:46 PM | message detail
29.9% had KH, BAH GAWD!
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Super Mario Bros. vs. WarCraft - Bracket: SMB - Vote: SMB (22/24)
Phediuk | Posted 7/21/2006 9:00:56 PM | message detail
Ouch. This could get ugly.
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Janus5000 | Posted 7/21/2006 9:00:58 PM | message detail
Super Mario Bros. 100% 8
Warcraft 0% 0
TOTAL VOTES 8

The funny thing is that I just voted Warcraft.

Holy 30%, Batman!

...Makes me wonder how low CV's would've been... ;_;
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SonicRaptor | Posted 7/21/2006 9:01:06 PM | message detail
29% picked KH...that shocked me.
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charmander6000 | Posted 7/21/2006 9:01:29 PM | message detail
O_O at number of perfects fell. I guess CV was the favorite between them.
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KamikazePotato | Posted 7/21/2006 9:01:39 PM | message detail
Holy crap at prediction percentage.

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steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 9:01:48 PM | message detail
WOW! I am one of only 124 remaining perfects!!!

Sonic...my hero...bring me the Leaderboard glory! Now I KNOW you will be the one to do it!

Look at MARIO!!!!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 26-0. Next Win: SONIC!
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/21/2006 9:01:51 PM | message detail
Wow. Halo had a lot more support than I though,because I doubt CV was much over 20%, and probably under it...
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Mustache...and green...
Phediuk | Posted 7/21/2006 9:02:02 PM | message detail
Jesus. That few picked KH? o_O
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