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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 323

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steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 10:13:39 AM | message detail
Castlevania is absolutely and utterly jobbing to Kingdom Hearts !!

:)

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html



!yawA tsoP
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 22-0. Next Win: K HEARTS!
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/21/2006 10:14:35 AM | message detail
I call 324.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
dad wat are u on i just cant my mash
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/21/2006 10:15:09 AM | message detail
Actually, is this even a legitimate stats topic? It is Illumina after all.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
dad wat are u on i just cant my mash
Draco1214 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:15:17 AM | message detail
KH > CV FTW!
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
YoAriel33 | Posted 7/21/2006 10:15:23 AM | message detail
I call 350 and 400.
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Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
transience | Posted 7/21/2006 10:15:46 AM | message detail
I CALL STATS TOPIC NUMBER 46235 IT MAKES ME LOOK AWESOME
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 10:16:01 AM | message detail
Its yours then. I only get like one or two of these a year! *lol*
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 22-0. Next Win: K HEARTS!
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/21/2006 10:18:18 AM | message detail
That's because you always leave when something you've been lobbying for loses. >_>
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This was Ed Bellis.
SephirothG | Posted 7/21/2006 10:19:29 AM | message detail
WTF SO SOON !!
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Board 585012
My boyfriend is uncut and I laugh at him and ask him if I can put pennies in there. He doesn't appreciate it much.~ Ryoko
steve illumina | Posted 7/21/2006 10:19:56 AM | message detail
That aint happenin this year friend. I shall lose "with the dignity..and the stoicism of the true warrior"...
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 22-0. Next Win: K HEARTS!
XIII_rocks | Posted 7/21/2006 10:20:09 AM | message detail
So ****ing soon indeed X_X
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
dad wat are u on i just cant my mash
charmander6000 | Posted 7/21/2006 11:40:07 AM | message detail
Match XXI: (1) Super Mario Bros. vs. (5) Warcraft

Past Matches

Super Mario Bros.
Defeated Madden NFL, 92.21% - 7.79%

Warcraft
Defeated Grand Theft Auto, 50.44% - 49.56%

Analysis:

SMB not only destroyed Madden it annihilated it. People knew that this wouldn’t be pretty, but SMB surpassed a lot of people’s expectation in that match. Warcraft on the other hand was the underdog in its match, but was able to pull through and beat GTA with some help from rallying. Funny thing is that despite people calling cheating for Warcraft it was GTA who was doing the cheating.

In no way, shape or form will Warcraft be able to rally itself out of this match. People will try near the beginning of the match, but will stop once they find out there is no way Warcraft can come back. I’ve also seen a lot of posts saying that some Warcraft fans would vote for SMB because they think it is the better series.

A lot of people compare Warcraft to Diablo (and Starcraft) because they were made by the same company and many of them would rank Diablo > Warcraft so this match may give us a small preview on what will happen in FF/SMB. Though I think Warcraft may be closer to Diablo than what some people think. Unlike in FF/Diablo there will be more Warcraft fans trying to rally for it than Diablo (I don’t think it had any).

Anyways Super Mario Bros. will win and should have no problem until running into the brick wall known as Final Fantasy.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Super Mario Bros. over Grand Theft Auto

charmander6000’s Prediction: Super Mario Bros. wins, 77.49% - 22.51%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
bobby200614 | Posted 7/21/2006 12:07:53 PM | message detail
tag for later

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You know the kinda people that come to these Stacy concerts, these dudes have got energy to spare. I'm talking guys who beat off four times a day!
junglebob22 | Posted 7/21/2006 12:10:14 PM | message detail
I think it's gonna be like this:

Super Mario Bros.: 72%
Warcraft: 28%
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MKDS Friend Code: 085959-099689
is gamefaqs influencing the vote?-livinlaravers
FFDragon | Posted 7/21/2006 1:49:48 PM | message detail
Damn guys, that's twice in one day that you've let me snag the 500.
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Married to PepsiPlunge June 01, 2005: HERO'S PLUNGE!
(Metal Gear Solid 2)
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/21/2006 1:50:09 PM | message detail
just a random point from the other topic I felt like reposting:
I don't get why KH is being said to 'impress', though. We have no idea how strong any of these guys are, but as from the beginning I'd be inclined to say "not very strong at all." I'll give KH and CV the benefit of the doubt since they're so far above Halo (nicely done, KH2!)

For me, that's why its impressive. Kingdom Hearts went from being ranked below Halo to beating a series that beat Halo with 55%. I think it's impressive simply because KH is a small series and since it made up the difference and then more on Halo. (possibly, of course, we don't really know the games to series, but whatever.) Also, this is exciting for Sora in the sum...fall. I think this must show Kingdom Hearts II had a very significant effect, and now we get to wonder where he'll place.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/21/2006 1:50:26 PM | message detail
Halo......ultimate loser. XD
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/21/2006 1:51:09 PM | message detail
Knuckles > Kingdom Hearts
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"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
trannyscience | Posted 7/21/2006 1:51:46 PM | message detail
I've never believed in antivotes, and I don't know how much you can write off a same opponent matchup, though.

Starcraft. also:

Halo: Combat Evolved 49.83% 56258
Starcraft 50.17% 56631
TOTAL VOTES 112889

Starcraft 53.57% 40698
Kingdom Hearts 46.43% 35274
TOTAL VOTES 75972
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 1:52:41 PM | message detail
I wasn't convinced that Halo would beat Kingdom Hearts either back in 2k4,, but I decided to take a gamble. Looking at Soul Calibur crashing and burning though, I'd attribute this mostly to KH2 (and less KH hate, to an extent). Or maybe the fault lies in Soul Calibur overperforming, though I doubt it.

It's also why you can't judge based on two relatively close performances on the same opponent, especially if that opponent isn't exactly renowned for reliability. I use the same logic with Bowser/Ganondorf in their matches against Sephiroth. Not that I'll ever be validated, because unless they meet this year before Twilight Princess it won't matter.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/21/2006 1:54:48 PM | message detail
I've never actually paid attention to the Bowser/Ganondorf stuff. Are they supposed to be that far apart that it actually matters? What's the conflict?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
SonicRaptor | Posted 7/21/2006 1:55:45 PM | message detail
I wake up this morning, check the poll and find Castlevania in a firm lead that only built while I was asleep. I was ready to write the match off until I checked-up on it while at work. KH completely erased the lead in an amazing amount of time and now is building it's own lead.

I'm impressed and glad.
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Current Contest Score: 22/22 Next Winner: Kingdom Hearts
I'll just put something to fill another line here.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 1:57:51 PM | message detail
Well, if you adjust Ganondorf based on his proportion with Bowser for SC2k5, he ends up above Snake. If you adjust through Diablo (which is what I do), he's safely below. If you adjust through CATS, he gets very high...but that's stupid (hiya, Master Chief!).

It's mostly because Ganondorf has been traditionally viewed as stronger (though that's been Magus' fault for two years), and because he has intangibles (Zelda > Mario). But I think Bowser is just more liked, and that's enough for him to edge it out IMO.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/21/2006 1:57:54 PM | message detail
So, assuming KH does win this match, how does this make the "newer series with 2 games fail" seem?
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 2:00:35 PM | message detail
It doesn't mean they automatically fail -- after all, SSB *did* beat DQ. It just puts them at a disadvantage. Put Halo against SotN and you've likely got a much different result than Halo/Castlevania. Sonic still has the edge over SSB in terms of games and nostalgia, it's just that Castlevania is showing us today that isn't always enough. Fortunately, Sonic would manhandle Castlevania in my opinion.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/21/2006 2:01:20 PM | message detail
I've never actually paid attention to the Bowser/Ganondorf stuff. Are they supposed to be that far apart that it actually matters? What's the conflict?

Some people think that Bowser didn't overperform on Snake in 2k5 due to the sprite. Personally, I think those people are crazy, but some people just support Bowser even when all logic works against them.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/21/2006 2:02:05 PM | message detail
From DeepHyren12 Posted 7/21/2006 4:57:54 PM #024
So, assuming KH does win this match, how does this make the "newer series with 2 games fail" seem?

Given that KH was the heavy favorite to win its fourpack in the first place, I'd consider this a bombing.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 2:05:38 PM | message detail
Some people think that Bowser didn't overperform on Snake in 2k5 due to the sprite. Personally, I think those people are crazy, but some people just support Bowser even when all logic works against them.

Wait...what?

This makes no sense. We already know that Ganondorf and Bowser aren't anywhere near their values on Sephiroth as of 2k5. Unless you want to do ridiculous stuff like Ganondorf > Crono, of course. Most people who do adjust Ganon do so by giving his proportion with Bowser. If Bowser overperformed, it means Ganondorf is weaker. It would take a helluva lot of a Bowser overperformance to bring him down to Ganon through Diablo 2k5, and if you're going to measure through CATS I'm not going to bother with you.

Ganondorf really shouldn't have been left alone in creativename's stats, in my opinion. But then again, I think giving him his value based on Magus just for the sake of the stats 'looking right' is also a bit hypocritical (*cough*).
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 7/21/2006 2:18:33 PM | message detail
This makes no sense. We already know that Ganondorf and Bowser aren't anywhere near their values on Sephiroth as of 2k5. Unless you want to do ridiculous stuff like Ganondorf > Crono, of course.

WTF? If you use the VC stats, Ganon barely does better on Crono than Vincent, and Bowser is 2% weaker than he was in the Summer. I have no idea what's wrong with that.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 2:22:27 PM | message detail
WTF? If you use the VC stats, Ganon barely does better on Crono than Vincent, and Bowser is 2% weaker than he was in the Summer. I have no idea what's wrong with that.

You're using the VC stats' value for Sephiroth, which is unreliable. Sephiroth 2k5 is obviously far above that value.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/21/2006 2:24:25 PM | message detail
And if you use the villain contest stats, Sephiroth magically got 6% stronger on Base Link between, what, June and September?
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Mustache...and green...
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/21/2006 2:30:23 PM | message detail
Given that KH was the heavy favorite to win its fourpack in the first place, I'd consider this a bombing.

Yeah, but that's using precontest information. You can check the board, oracle, spread betting, analysts' picks to see that Castlevania had a lot of support. This isn't disappointing for KH.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 2:32:00 PM | message detail
Which is why I don't use Sephiroth. Which leaves me with a few choices to extrapolate G-dorf with. There's CATS, who is behind Master Chief and potentially overrated due to MC overperforming on Crono. There's Diablo, who if anything should overrate Ganon by a miniscule amount, since he got linked in his match with Sonic and not against Ganondorf. Finally, there's using the proportion between him and Bowser, but aside from it seeming arbitrary to me I just don't trust either performance to begin with -- they just *reek* of overperformance to me.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 7/21/2006 2:35:49 PM | message detail
Call me crazy, but I still would take Halo over Kingdom Hearts in a direct match.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/21/2006 2:37:56 PM | message detail
And Sonic's win wll break more perfects than KH's today...take that to the bank kiddies. :) :) But we will be under 200 today, as I am guessing 1/3 of them took CV to upset both Halo and KH...

Good thing less than 1/3 took CV to beat Halo alone. I seriously doubt 1/3 are taking CV to beat KH too.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/21/2006 2:39:51 PM | message detail
Okay. You're crazy.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/21/2006 2:45:37 PM | message detail
You're sexy.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/21/2006 2:46:54 PM | message detail
In the last 5 minute update CV went from 122 votes to 224, and KH went from 143 to 226. WTF

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
trannyscience | Posted 7/21/2006 2:47:22 PM | message detail
the site is lagging, that's why.
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yzzyx
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/21/2006 2:47:40 PM | message detail
Oh. Well your face is lagging!

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/21/2006 2:55:13 PM | message detail
That might be the worst pic ever made.
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
trannyscience | Posted 7/21/2006 2:56:36 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse21.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse22.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse23.jpg

Sonic/SSB is interesting. nice picture.
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yzzyx
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/21/2006 2:58:49 PM | message detail
SNOOOOOOOOOOOIC! After today, I think I actually want SSB to beat Sonic... I need big bracket upsets, and I think SSB > Sonic will kill off more perfects.

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Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Janus5000 | Posted 7/21/2006 3:01:24 PM | message detail
I'd think a lot of people would pick both CV and Sonic, so I wouldn't be sure.

Of course, if that's true, then today will kill off a lot.

And those pics are awesome.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/21/2006 3:01:39 PM | message detail
CECIL, BABY!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 3:01:43 PM | message detail
That Warcraft pic is an abomination.

SBM might break 80%.

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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
creativename | Posted 7/21/2006 3:02:31 PM | message detail
SMB, I meant.

SSB has a great pic - the Nintendo Three.

And I *love* the Final Fantasy pic! Red Mage!
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/21/2006 3:02:47 PM | message detail
And the Sonic/SSB picture is second only to Snake/Sora. That s awesome for both sides.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
trannyscience | Posted 7/21/2006 3:03:10 PM | message detail
FF1 representin'! anything involving FF1 is instant win for me.
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yzzyx
trannyscience | Posted 7/21/2006 3:04:38 PM | message detail
Mega Man is also very good in that picture. I'd say those last two pictures are great.. the Warcraft one, well, it doesn't matter in the first place.

SSB's picture is weird to me, maybe because it's characters in their natural games and not in Smash Bros. that picture looks like Nintendo vs. Sega, not Sonic vs. SSB.
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yzzyx