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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 320

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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 7:25:57 PM | message detail
Also a similar sum of squared differences analysis strongly indicates a stronger Link and Mario in SC2K5.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:27:38 PM | message detail
From what I've seen of SC2k5, nearly *everyone* looks significantly stronger. Sure that's due in part to no character caps, but something seems amiss with that conclusion.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:28:00 PM | message detail
Company caps, rather.
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ccbfan | Posted 7/20/2006 7:28:02 PM | message detail
KH was huge for Squall.

He went from a antisocial pompous jackass to a personality many rpger think as "cool".
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:29:47 PM | message detail
KH was huge for Squall.

Which is why there's no basis for comparison. 2k2 could have been his legitimate strength and 2k3 the result of a massive boost. I did forget Link/Samus though, so Squall and Ramza aren't as strong as I thought.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:30:51 PM | message detail
*as close as I thought. Man, I'm off.
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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 7:38:26 PM | message detail
From what I've seen of SC2k5, nearly *everyone* looks significantly stronger. Sure that's due in part to no character caps, but something seems amiss with that conclusion.

The notion that a group of characters got stronger was the common sense idea at the time the contest was going on, so I don't know why it would be odd that certain math supports the notion. But if you don't like the boosts and prefer a more constant Mario, just use the regular non-Base Link values.

2k2 could have been his legitimate strength and 2k3 the result of a massive boost. I did forget Link/Samus though, so Squall and Ramza aren't as strong as I thought.

I'm not sure what you're getting at. 2k2 was his legit strength in 2k2, 2k3 was his legit strength in 2k3 because of a massive boost.
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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 7:41:06 PM | message detail
OK, I see what the conversation was about Squall. Yes ccbfan, you can't directly compare Squall 2k2 with 2k3 at all, this is well known. Squall 2k2 wasn't an anomaly, it's just that things were different that year than in subsequent years. And Squall was more different that year from his later years, than his later years differ from each other.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:43:25 PM | message detail
I'm not sure what you're getting at. 2k2 was his legit strength in 2k2, 2k3 was his legit strength in 2k3 because of a massive boost.

There is the idea that Squall is even STRONGER than he appears in 2k3 thanks to being behind Link/Samus SFF. While KHF can account for much of the apparent boost, to many it seems unreasonable. And with Snake's overperformance on Sora and FFVII's overperformances on everything MGS, the idea of MGS and FF being linked has been made. And with that, the possibility of Snake SFFing Squall has come up.

It's not widely accepted by any means (I've only seen me and Leonhart even entertain it), but I thought I'd bring it up nonetheless.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 7:46:25 PM | message detail
I don't discount the idea, but it's kind of obsolete since Squall is so much stronger at this point. the only thing it would mean is that KHF isn't as strong as people like to think.

remind me - what other characters besides Squall and Cloud are thought to be recipients of "KHF"? Aeris?
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 7:46:41 PM | message detail
2k2 was his legit strength in 2k2

Weren't you just the one talking about how MGS seems to have some sort of overlap with RPG fanbases? Honestly, with FFVII apparently "SFFing" MGS on two occasions and Snake "SFFing" Sora, Snake overperforming on Squall would not surprise me at all.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 7:47:21 PM | message detail
what other characters besides Squall and Cloud are thought to be recipients of "KHF"? Aeris?

Sephiroth. He went from ~42% on Link to being nearly equal with him.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 7:48:13 PM | message detail
hmm.. well, Sephiroth just felt like being equal with Link, I guess.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:49:59 PM | message detail
I don't discount the idea, but it's kind of obsolete since Squall is so much stronger at this point.

It's not obsolete at all, if anything it means that a main contender for breaking the Noble Nine has basically no shot at all (if Snake SFFed Squall, his main fanbase is going to pull the rug on him if they meet again). If Vincent uses the FFVII > MGS chain, he could conceivably beat Snake even if he's indirectly weaker. It basically means Snake is a freaking Final Fantasy character.

I remember this Four Pack from HaRRicH's board:

Snake
Vincent

Squall
Ganondorf

I was the only one taking Squall > Vincent, and it was exactly for the reasons I mentioned.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 7:51:06 PM | message detail
It's hard to say, but there's no doubt he was MUCH stronger in 2003. Check out his matches against Mega Man from 2002 to 2003. The 2003 Sephiroth/Mega Man match got 26835 more votes than the 2002 version. You know how many more individual votes Mega Man got in 2003?

28.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 7:51:51 PM | message detail
It basically means Snake is a freaking Final Fantasy character.

And he's about to become a Nintendo character!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 7:52:13 PM | message detail
And with that, the possibility of Snake SFFing Squall has come up.

Interesting, I'd never heard of that before. Not impossible but I wouldn't consider it overly sensible, since a FF7/MGS overlap is more understandable due to their release dates. But it doesn't mean much anymore anyway, and we'd have no possible way of verifying it. Not a crazy theory though.

remind me - what other characters besides Squall and Cloud are thought to be recipients of "KHF"? Aeris?

No, not Aeris. Squall, Cloud, and Sephiroth, in that order.

Weren't you just the one talking about how MGS seems to have some sort of overlap with RPG fanbases?

If you're talking to me, then no, you're confusing me with someone else.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 7:52:26 PM | message detail
Snake is the new Sephiroth!

heh, Snake/Sephiroth would be a brutal match to try and predict as far as percentages go.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 7:53:18 PM | message detail
oh, and that was me, by the way.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:53:30 PM | message detail
And he's about to become a Nintendo character!

He can't lose!
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 7:53:57 PM | message detail
Yeah, I just went back and checked. That was transience. Silly semi-long all undercased user names!
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/20/2006 7:54:26 PM | message detail
Sephiroth. He went from ~42% on Link to being nearly equal with him

What? But Link got like 54/55% >_>
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LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 7:54:46 PM | message detail
I meant in 2003. Check their respective percentages against Cloud.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/20/2006 7:55:44 PM | message detail
Ah, ok then.
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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 7:56:20 PM | message detail
It's not obsolete at all, if anything it means that a main contender for breaking the Noble Nine has basically no shot at all (if Snake SFFed Squall, his main fanbase is going to pull the rug on him if they meet again). If Vincent uses the FFVII > MGS chain, he could conceivably beat Snake even if he's indirectly weaker. It basically means Snake is a freaking Final Fantasy character.

Hmm. Fascinating.

I don't actually believe it, but I've heard wilder things.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 7:56:23 PM | message detail
Cloud/Sephiroth has the potential to be weird though due to them being in the same game. I'm sure I've seen the rSFF idea thrown around before in regards to that match.
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trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 7:57:02 PM | message detail
pic's up, by the way.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/bse/bse20.jpg
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:57:24 PM | message detail
I could see Sephiroth winning against Snake with anywhere from 55% to 75% (yes, anywhere from making Snake look stronger than Mario to making Snake look weaker than Liquid).
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/20/2006 7:57:47 PM | message detail
What the? Is that Roxas with a scythe?!
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Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 7:57:49 PM | message detail
That pic is win.
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/20/2006 7:57:57 PM | message detail
wow, that's a great pic.
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Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 7:58:15 PM | message detail
From: longbladeofhiko | Posted: 7/20/2006 7:57:47 PM | Message Detail
What the? Is that Roxas with a scythe?!


It's Marluxia
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/20/2006 7:58:19 PM | message detail
Cloud/Sephiroth has the potential to be weird though due to them being in the same game. I'm sure I've seen the rSFF idea thrown around before in regards to that match.

I remember it being thrown around in 2K4 as a reason to take Sephiroth over Cloud... That's the only thing I remember though.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 7:58:29 PM | message detail
Marluxia?!?!?! *marks out like it's mardi gras*

Oh, and CV is screwed.
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Tediz247 | Posted 7/20/2006 7:58:49 PM | message detail
Heh, Dracula looks like he's stopping the scythe from swinging. Soma's a bit blurry, but overall the pic is quite good.
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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 7:59:24 PM | message detail
Cloud/Sephiroth has the potential to be weird though due to them being in the same game. I'm sure I've seen the rSFF idea thrown around before in regards to that match.

I remember the pre-talk for that match quite well. A lot of people chose Sephiroth after his whupping of Mario (which I saw coming due to x-stats), but I stated at the time how it was pretty clear that Cloud should be favored by a couple points, due to extrapolation on early results in that same contest. I picked Sephiroth in the Oracle due to favoritism, but the final %age in that match lined up real nice with the pre-match stat analysis. So there's no reason to consider rSFF.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/20/2006 7:59:31 PM | message detail
It's Marluxia

Thanks for clearing that up. I haven't played CoM, and I was a bit lost.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/20/2006 7:59:33 PM | message detail
If Soma's picture was clearer it'd be 10/10 material.
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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 8:02:03 PM | message detail
For some reason that pic increases my confidence in Kingdom Hearts, even though Dracula is a positive and sprites are probably not good for KH.
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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 8:02:24 PM | message detail
Maybe it's the lack of anime art for Castlevania.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 7/20/2006 8:02:50 PM | message detail
Both villains look like there about to whoop some ass.
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Master Moltar | Posted 7/20/2006 8:02:51 PM | message detail
Soma looks pretty bad in that pic, but everything else is fine. Seems to favor KH though.
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ccbfan | Posted 7/20/2006 8:05:11 PM | message detail
Hmm?

Don't know if its just me but I think the pic is a huge advantage for KH.

Castlevania would have been better off with Alucard.
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/20/2006 8:07:35 PM | message detail
Aside from Soma looking dreadful, that picture is pretty good.

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FFDragon | Posted 7/20/2006 8:08:54 PM | message detail
That picture is horrible... >_<
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 8:09:51 PM | message detail
Somehow my whole perception of this match changed after seeing that picture. I'd be SHOCKED if CV won now.
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Adept of Aiur | Posted 7/20/2006 8:10:16 PM | message detail
Quite frankly, I doubt the picture is an advantage for either series. The voters will know of one of the series either way.

And to the uneducated eye (ie. mine), it looks like there are 3 CV characters in that picture.
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NewLib | Posted 7/20/2006 8:13:13 PM | message detail
Pics really dont matter. I dont think people go "Hmmm Im going to vote for Metal Gear because of that ultra cool pic of OCELOT HAND GESTURING. Wait is that a piece of ****, I NO LONGER WILL VOTE FOR METAL GEAR."
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trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 8:13:54 PM | message detail
meh, I guess KH is the advantage there because Sora is so recognizable. I don't think the picture is going to matter much though.
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yzzyx
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 8:14:46 PM | message detail
I think what really gives KH the advantage (other than Sora's sprite) is the background.
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