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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 320

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Lopen | Posted 7/20/2006 5:17:08 PM | message detail
I'm surprised only two of the crew took Castlevania to beat Halo's percentage on KH, yet at the same time we all took Castlevania.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Phediuk | Posted 7/20/2006 5:17:17 PM | message detail
*COMPARISONS GAME- (3) Castlevania vs. (2) Kingdom Hearts*

Sales

Castlevania=niche, Kingdom Hearts=multi-million seller. I'm going with the safer choice.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Hype

Castlevania:

Not much right now. Portrait of Ruin will get a fair amount of buzz, but like the GBA games and DoS, it won't be a monster seller.

Kingdom Hearts:

After 4 months, people are still talking about KH2. Not many games can claim so.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Number of Games

Castlevania:

Main series-

Vampire Killer (MSX, 1986)
Castlevania (NES, 1987)
Castlevania II: Simon's Quest (NES, 1988)
Castlevania: The Adventure (GB, 1989)
Castlevania III: Dracula's Curse (NES, 1990)
Super Castlevania IV (SNES, 1991)
Castlevania II: Belmont's Revenge (GB, 1991)
Dracula X: Rondo of Blood (TCD, 1993)
Castlevania: Bloodlines (Genesis, 1994)
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (PSX, 1997)
Castlevania Legends (GB, 1998)
Castlevania (N64, 1999)
Castlevania: Legacy of Darkness (N64, 1999)
Castlevania: Circle of the Moon (GBA, 2001)
Castlevania: Harmony of Dissonance (GBA, 2002)
Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow (GBA, 2003)
Castlevania: Lament of Innocence (PS2, 2003)
Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow (DS, 2005)
Castlevania: Curse of Darkness (PS2, 2005)

Spinoffs/ports-

Castlevania (FDS, 1986)
Castlevania (MSX, 1987)
Castlevania II: Simon's Quest (FDS, 1987)
Haunted Castle (Arcade, 1988)
Castlevania (C64, 1990)
Castlevania (Amiga, 1990)
Castlevania (PC, 1990)
Kid Dracula (NES, 1991)
Castlevania (X68000, 1993)
Kid Dracula (GB, 1993)
Castlevania: Dracula X (SNES, 1995)
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (Saturn, 1998)
Castlevania Chronicles (PSX, 2001)
Classic NES Series: Castlevania (GBA, 2004)
Castlevania (Mobile, 2004)
Castlevania: Curse of Darkness (Xbox, 2005)
Castlevania Double Pack (GBA, 2006)

Total- 36
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Kingdom Hearts:

Main series-

Kingdom Hearts (PS2, 2002)
Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories (GBA, 2004)
Kingdom Hearts II (PS2, 2006)

Spinoffs/ports-

Kingdom Hearts: Final Mix (PS2, 2002)

Total- 4

Advantage: Castlevania

GameFAQs Status

Number of FAQs:

Castlevania:

Vampire Killer- 2
Castlevania- 11
Castlevania II: Simon's Quest- 8
Castlevania: The Adventure- 4
Castlevania III: Dracula's Curse- 9
Super Castlevania IV- 8
Castlevania II: Belmont's Revenge- 5
Dracula X: Rondo of Blood- 5
Castlevania: Bloodlines- 4
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night- 21
Castlevania Legends- 7
Castlevania (N64)- 11
Castlevania: Legacy of Darkness- 6
Castlevania: Circle of the Moon- 22
Castlevania: Harmony of Dissonance- 18
Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow- 21
Castlevania: Lament of Innocence- 19
Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow- 16
Castlevania: Curse of Darkness- 16
Total- 213

Kingdom Hearts:

Kingdom Hearts- 48
Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories- 24
Kingdom Hearts II- 42
Total- 114

Advantage: Castlevania
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 5:17:47 PM | message detail
Heh, if I had known that the entire crew was going to take Castlevania, I might have taken Kingdom Hearts just in the off chance it pulled the upset.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
CountCrazy007 | Posted 7/20/2006 5:17:48 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts will win. I don't need to throw out any numbers, stats, logic, or anything.
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4th Place of the Fall 2005 10-Year Anniversary Contest
SC2k6 Noms: Captain Falcon, Seifer, Tails, Sub Zero, Nightmare, Tron Bonne, Ramza
Phediuk | Posted 7/20/2006 5:18:03 PM | message detail
Average review score/Number of reviews:

Castlevania:

Vampire Killer- 6.00 (2)
Castlevania- 7.65 (43)
Castlevania II: Simon's Quest- 7.75 (32)
Castlevania: The Adventure- 4.52 (21)
Castlevania III: Dracula's Curse- 9.37 (27)
Super Castlevania IV- 8.14 (35)
Castlevania II: Belmont's Revenge- 8.14 (7)
Dracula X: Rondo of Blood- 9.59 (17)
Castlevania: Bloodlines- 8.28 (25)
Castlevania: Symphony of the Night- 9.36 (53)
Castlevania Legends- 6.14 (7)
Castlevania (N64)- 7.24 (29)
Castlevania: Legacy of Darkness- 8.28 (18)
Castlevania: Circle of the Moon- 8.83 (48)
Castlevania: Harmony of Dissonance- 7.63 (40)
Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow- 8.96 (50)
Castlevania: Lament of Innocence- 7.80 (50)
Castlevania: Dawn of Sorrow- 9.19 (42)
Castlevania: Curse of Darkness- 7.61 (18)
Series average- 7.92 (564)

Kingdom Hearts:

Kingdom Hearts- 8.75 (95)
Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories- 7.76 (55)
Kingdom Hearts II- 8.61 (72)
Series average- 8.37 (222)

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts/Castlevania

Board activity:

KH2=larger than entire Castlevania series combined. That sure happens a lot in this category. o_O

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Board Odds Project

Match prediction:

Kingdom Hearts- 98
Halo- 24
Castlevania- 11

Obviously, these predictions were made without knowledge of CV/Halo.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Point value:

Kingdom Hearts- 449
Castlevania- 56

See the above category? Yeah.

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Previous contest representation


Castlevania:

SC2002-

Alucard (26th)
Simon Belmont (34th)

SC2003-

Alucard (22nd)

Sp2004-

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (32nd)

SC2004-

Alucard (59th)

SC2005-

Alucard (36th)

Top 100-

Castlevania: Symphony of the Night (#15)

Kingdom Hearts:

SC2003-

Sora (39th)

Sp2004-

Kingdom Hearts (13th)

SC2004-

Sora (13th)

Sp2005-

Ansem (12th)

SC2005-

Sora (30th)
Riku (45th)

Top 100-

Kingdom Hearts (#16)

Advantage: Kingdom Hearts

Intangibles

KH suffered from two-game-series syndrome last round, much like Halo did against CV. Will this be enough for CV to win the match? I really don't know, but it's certainly a plus.

Advantage: Castlevania

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, KH>Halo on this site. Enough to squeak by Castlevania? Despite the aforementioned two-game-series syndrome, I believe KH's popularity can make up the 55-45 difference that Halo lost by. KH with 52%.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
ccbfan | Posted 7/20/2006 5:18:07 PM | message detail
I think the fact that everyone of you are saying the other Metal Gear characters was overrated rated in previous contest and that none of them(except Ocelot) really disappointed shows how weak the series is.

Metal Gear is one of those series that spawn cool badguys and side characters. Its story intensive and just has a lot of badass scens.

The thing is, out of the noble 9, Snake's game is the only game other than Samus' where there is not a decent 2nd character.

Megaman-Zero (Protoman and Bass could probably beat MG's 2nd char)

Cloud-Seph-Aeris-Tifa-Vincent(Probably every party member plus half the turks minus that stupid cat could beat MS's 2nd character)

Link-Ganondorf-Zelda(If you count sheik as seperate from Zelda, she'd be there too)

Mario-Yoshi-Bowser(luigi and Princess)

Sonic-Knuckles-Shadow(Tails and Robotnic might be able to beat MG's second character)

Crono-Frog-Magus

As for Samus, I already explain Samus is much more popular than Metroid and a lot of that has to do with SSBM probably. Also Metroid games aren't story intensive. There barely any character development for anyone other than Samus. Unlike MG, metroid games don't pimp up their characters at all. Most of the time you meet a major side character like once or twice in a game and they usually die during one of those times.

Snake is popular, Metal Gear is a upper mid card. Probably like Squall in the character contest.
charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 5:20:18 PM | message detail
*looks at Analysis Crew Topic*

A clean sweep for CV. Now I have a bad feeling that KH will win.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/20/2006 5:21:56 PM | message detail
Srsly. I was like, one of only 10 people in the oracle contest that had Castlevania winning. Now everyone is switching to Castlevania. Dammit.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 5:22:33 PM | message detail
you guys and your price is right game. it's not even about predicting the winner anymore, it's about trying to beat each other in some competition.
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yzzyx
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 5:23:23 PM | message detail
It's always been about competition.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
NewLib | Posted 7/20/2006 5:24:04 PM | message detail
Im going to laugh so hard if KH just creams Castlevania. And I even like Castlevania more.
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Where am I?
charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 5:24:36 PM | message detail
The Price is Right > All other game shows plus most other shows.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Lopen | Posted 7/20/2006 5:24:46 PM | message detail
And I swear people aren't even reading the analyses. I thought my argument for Halo outdoing KH on Castlevania was pretty sufficient, but all I get is "he's just overhyping because his baby Halo lost" and "60%, what the crunk!?".

And if I was playing the price is right, I'd have went much lower, I knew I'd be much higher than the rest with 60%. I honestly do think Castlevania will get around that.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
ccbfan | Posted 7/20/2006 5:25:29 PM | message detail
Kingdom Hearts did pretty bad against Harvest Moon. Unless the girl gamer population is much higher on gamefaqs than we expected, Harvest moon should be on of the weakest series in the contest.

I expect Castlevania to win too and have my perfect go down the tubes. Doesn't matter though since I freakin had LOZ win the whole thing so I had no chance of winning anyways.
NewLib | Posted 7/20/2006 5:27:09 PM | message detail
Also, if Lopen wins this match I will say it right now. No way is MG beating Castlevania. But thats ONLY if Lopen wins.
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Where am I?
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 5:27:41 PM | message detail
I read the analysis. I can see the reasoning behind Kingdom Hearts being weaker than Halo, though I don't know about to THAT great of an extent. I think KH as a series has a bit more diversity (for what little that may be worth) than Halo does.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 5:27:50 PM | message detail
And I swear people aren't even reading the analyses. I thought my argument for Halo outdoing KH on Castlevania was pretty sufficient, but all I get is "he's just overhyping because his baby Halo lost" and "60%, what the crunk!?".

I've read it and I agree with most of it and other than your prediction mine is the highest in the AC topic.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 5:28:17 PM | message detail
If I get the Analysis Crew point for Castlevania/Kingdom Hearts, I will eat my entire hat collection.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 5:29:36 PM | message detail
I read them some of the time. if it's a thousand words over a match that isn't even debated, hell no. I usually read Ulti's just because it's about two lines. today though, yeah.
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yzzyx
Lopen | Posted 7/20/2006 5:33:43 PM | message detail
That's why I try to make mine fairly brief. Sometimes I fail, but I'd say in combined word count I'm ahead of only Ulti and Soul.
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/20/2006 5:33:50 PM | message detail
I'm lazy. Sue me.

~*ST*~
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*TRUE RKO King of Board 8*
Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/20/2006 5:35:12 PM | message detail
I think the way the points are calculated is flawed. I personally would prefer an average difference between predicted percentage and actual percentage. Or at the last give 10 points for 1st, 9 for 2nd, ect, like the other person in that topic is doing.
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 5:36:21 PM | message detail
extensive writeups are fine, but you shouldn't feel obligated to write an essay if there's nothing to say about the match. today is fine to bust out a huge writeup since it's probably the most contested match of the contest so far.
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yzzyx
DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/20/2006 5:49:56 PM | message detail
I still go with KH. I think this is another Samus vs. Mario: it's freaking Kingdom Hearts! Square's second most popular series. KH2 turned it among the square faithful from a spinoff whose popularity came primarily from the cameos to a main-line series taking a respectable second to FF.
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 5:57:11 PM | message detail
I'm rooting for Kingdom Hearts, though I think Castlevania is worthy of the status as favorite.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Lopen | Posted 7/20/2006 5:58:45 PM | message detail
I'd say the "It's freaking" argument applies more to Castlevania than Kingdom Hearts...
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Big Bob | Posted 7/20/2006 6:00:32 PM | message detail
The crew unanimously picked Halo > CV and GTA > Warcraft. And we all know how those went.

I laughed my ass off when Warcraft won, and I'm confident in Kingdom Hearts.
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This space reserved for a new sig.
gtonizuka49 | Posted 7/20/2006 6:03:19 PM | message detail
I like Kingdom Hearts more and have it in my bracket. However, I'm fine with Castlevania winning and really want to see steve illumina's reaction to his inevitable first loss.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 6:03:28 PM | message detail
I'm actually thinking it's less and less likely for CV to beat KH as the match grows closer, despite having Halo > KH in my bracket. Things are meeting what would have been my initial expectations too easily (if I had no contest experience up to now, I would be perfect except for Pokemon/Metroid). I would never have taken Castlevania over Kingdom Hearts if it could 'only' manage 55% on Halo, cuz' GameFAQs hates that game!

lolz
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
dethfdddddh | Posted 7/20/2006 6:04:37 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: Chrono beats KH easily.
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Just Got Owned By Guru winner Voltch.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 6:04:44 PM | message detail
If CV wins, steve reacts hilariously to his loss and we all get a good laugh.

If KH wins, Lopen reacts hilariously to his loss and jumps on the KH > MG bandwagon.

I'm torn. Who does Tai have winning?
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 6:05:29 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: Chrono beats KH easily.

If 55%+ is easily, then big FACT. CT alone would trash both KH games at once.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 6:07:32 PM | message detail
I think his reaction will be all the more hilarious if he stays perfect until SF/RE. plus that's two "easy" brackets in a row where we lose a braggart thanks to Street Fighter.
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yzzyx
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 6:11:22 PM | message detail
...But I don't want Street Fighter to lose. However, if he DOES stay perfect that long, that does mean Sonic beats SSB.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 6:15:11 PM | message detail
you know, my #1 bracket is currently doing better than my "real" one and has CV today. watch it get back on the leaderboard by the end of the contest!
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 6:16:42 PM | message detail
tranny's bracket getting back on the leaderboard would amuse me to no end. Even more because it would entail Zelda winning the contest.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 6:18:32 PM | message detail
I have two brackets with 18 points (which is better than my for prizes entry, which has 17). Both of those missed GTA, and the other point lost is a 65/35 match (Pokemon/Star Ocean and Elder Scrolls/Street Fighter). I actually did have a few brackets with Warcraft beating GTA, but oddly enough, those are some of my worst brackets, points-wise.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 6:19:46 PM | message detail
OK...this is not what I was expecting. Fire Emblem pushing 35%? Day-um.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 6:20:47 PM | message detail
You people act surprised every time Metal Gear flops with the day vote. Nope, not even this contest's lack of voting trends can stop that. It's inevitable.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 6:21:34 PM | message detail
We're not surprised about Metal Gear flopping with the day vote. We're surprised that it wasn't that high before the day vote began.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
transients | Posted 7/20/2006 6:22:07 PM | message detail
*checks favourites bracket*

12!
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 6:22:47 PM | message detail
Well, last night people were talking about how they didn't expect the percentage to change dramatically. That just puzzled me. It's freaking Metal Gear, the only thing it can take the day vote from is stuff like Frog.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 6:23:07 PM | message detail
As for CV thumping KH or vice versa, in the next match I wouldn't be surprised overly much by either breaking 55%. It's such an unpredictable match IMO.

I still don't understand how KH can be the favorite, unless people have "pick inertia", in terms of sticking to their guns? KH could win this match comfortably, but I don't see much reason to actually favor either series.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/20/2006 6:23:27 PM | message detail
Haha. Solid Snake even lost % against Frog. Granted it was Solid **** though and Liquid Snake did make a little ground against Frog.

Only a little though >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 6:25:20 PM | message detail
Liquid doing better than Solid at various times of the poll should have *really* tipped people off on that. Heck, Liquid being that close to Solid in the first place should have been the main thing. It's not hindsight, it just didn't make any sense.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/20/2006 6:27:06 PM | message detail
Yeah. Frog Vs. Solid Snake remains the most prominent example of how pictures do matter.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 6:27:12 PM | message detail
So what's been the rumblings since this morning about this match, and Fire Emblem's percentage?

Well, last night people were talking about how they didn't expect the percentage to change dramatically. That just puzzled me. It's freaking Metal Gear, the only thing it can take the day vote from is stuff like Frog.

I wouldn't have expected it to change much. Not with higher early vote totals giving early %ages more inertia, and the track record of this contest and % shifts.

And I guess I simply didn't remember Metal Gear/Snake being all that bad at the day vote. Even if I had remembered though this shift is more than I would've expected, it's fairly substantial. This is pretty underwhelming by Metal Gear. I'm not a believer in any CV/KH>MG bandwagon, but I'm wondering if Metal Gear will even break 32% on Zelda.
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creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 6:29:03 PM | message detail
Liquid doing better than Solid at various times of the poll should have *really* tipped people off on that. Heck, Liquid being that close to Solid in the first place should have been the main thing. It's not hindsight, it just didn't make any sense.

I'm pretty sure plenty of people at the time, including myself, squarely put the closeness of that match on the pic factor. As in changing results by at least 3-5 points, was probably my guess at the time.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/20/2006 6:29:38 PM | message detail
I mentioned in another topic that the only time Metal Gear ever DIDN'T lose % in the day is against Manny, Tanner, Tenpenny and Frog.

Not an impressive track record.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
creativename | Posted 7/20/2006 6:29:57 PM | message detail
And while it was probably mainly Solid ****, we thought Sprite Frog also made an impact. The "Chrono Trigger Sprite" theory.
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