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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 320

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Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 2:52:32 PM | message detail
To expound on how highly I think of DMC, I would take it to beat Soul Calibur and Fire Emblem comfortably. That's what gives Sonic its appeal to me.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 2:55:05 PM | message detail
I'm starting to question who could even avoid being doubled by the big three at this point. I was looking at my projected x-stats that I made before the contest last night and just started cracking up at how off they are.
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 2:58:00 PM | message detail
Eh, I think a few series could escape the doubling from Mario. It doesn't seem THAT untouchable, Madden is just that fodderific. Metal Gear, Mega Man, Sonic, Super Smash Brothers...

...obviously not directly on most of them. lol NintendoFAQs
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:01:10 PM | message detail
I wonder just how bad the SFF will be in SMB/SSB (if SSB manages to make it there). Looking at Mario/Ness and how Ness draws most of his strength from the SSB series, it could get ugly.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
MnMZero | Posted 7/20/2006 3:02:21 PM | message detail
2k5 doesn't really count, as everyone and their mother had an upset prospect over Snake. Bowser > Snake, Zelda > Snake, Sora > Snake, Ryu > Snake, it got to be a bit ridiculous. Put Zero and/or Auron in his division and it gets exponentially worse.

Hey, but Bowser > Snake was actually a viable upset, and it came close to fruition! And it still was an upset pick in the end. Snake was always the favorite. The rest of the ___ > Snake bandwagons were a bit ridiculous to me though. It's the nature of contests to kick characters/games when they are down.

"Sonic got doubled by Cloud! Magus > Sonic in the X-stats! I'd easily take Magus over Sonic!" There are plenty more, but this topic is notorious for kicking things in their worst moments.
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 3:03:39 PM | message detail
*looks at today's match*
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
MnMZero | Posted 7/20/2006 3:06:12 PM | message detail
Eh, I think a few series could escape the doubling from Mario. It doesn't seem THAT untouchable, Madden is just that fodderific. Metal Gear, Mega Man, Sonic, Super Smash Brothers...

After seeing SMW/Sonic 2, I'm not so sure. LoZ absolutely crushed MMX, and even if Mario is no Zelda, it's probably much closer to Zelda than it is to Mega Man. The only series outside the big three that I think can avoid the doubling at this point is Metal Gear against Mario. Maybe Warcraft can surprise, but I'm not so sure.
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 3:07:24 PM | message detail
I was referring to indirect matchups. I think Mario would SFF every one of those series sans Metal Gear.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:09:27 PM | message detail
the thing is, it's hard to even find an indirect matchup in this bracket. at some point, it ends up looking like that's their natural strength.

I guess that's what happens when Nintendo series' are so dominant here and Final Fantasy is simply a cut above even Mario and Zelda.
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yzzyx
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:09:45 PM | message detail
er, in this contest, I should say. we all know how SFF-riddled the bracket is.
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yzzyx
Master Moltar | Posted 7/20/2006 3:09:58 PM | message detail
Got alot of analyses today. Just some comments.

CV/KH - Choo choo, all aboard the upset train!
SMB/Warcraft - Aitch Emm’s Prediction : Super Mario Bros. – 66% ; Warcraft – 26% Uh...
Sonic/SSB - Another match that is looking to be split.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Metal Gear vs. Fire Emblem - Bracket: MG - Vote: MG (18/20)
MnMZero | Posted 7/20/2006 3:10:21 PM | message detail
Oh, okay. That makes sense... although with this contest, it will probably be a bit hard to determine what is SFF'd and by how much. Final Fantasy will probably make Resident Evil look really bad. Put RE up against Metal Gear, Metroid, or Halo, and it would probably look much stronger. These are probably going to be the least reliable x-stats ever! I'm not complaining in the least! We probably won't see another series contest anyways, so it really won't matter except for endless debates which will probably never be answered.

*shudders*
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:13:00 PM | message detail
yep, just like the game contest.. only the game contest had six or seven strong entrants from the big three, whereas now we only have the three.

well, and Chrono, but apparently Chrono would be fodder as a 7 seed!
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yzzyx
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:17:54 PM | message detail
CV/KH - Choo choo, all aboard the upset train!

The crew favors CV?! You know what that means...<_<
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:19:36 PM | message detail
not only the crew, but the board as well.
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yzzyx
charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:20:25 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:20:59 PM | message detail
I still think CV will pull a Knuckles/Master Hand and lose the next match. KH just has a lot of advantages Halo doesn't have.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:22:31 PM | message detail
like?

I'd say, if anything, CV has the advantage coming into this match.
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yzzyx
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:23:36 PM | message detail
The fact that KH is a three-game flagship Square RPG series that will draw in Nintendo fanbase support and doesn't get anti-voted as much as Halo.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:24:06 PM | message detail
not only the crew, but the board as well.

That's because it has the backing of every person who took Halo to win/thought KH would be 50/50 against Halo.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
SuperiorSnake | Posted 7/20/2006 3:24:20 PM | message detail
SMB/Warcraft - Aitch Emm’s Prediction : Super Mario Bros. – 66% ; Warcraft – 26% Uh...

74% -- 26%. >>

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:24:45 PM | message detail
I dunno, if you look at KH/SC, something happened there. would you take Halo to lose to Soul Calibur?
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 3:25:16 PM | message detail
I thought Halo would beat KH, and I still think KH is the favorite here. Much like my stance on Sonic/SSB though, I'm rooting for the little guy.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:26:39 PM | message detail
Sonic/SSB - Another match that is looking to be split.

What? You mean I'm actually going to have some competition for the point there? Crap.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:28:02 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:28:41 PM | message detail
From: trannyscience | Posted: 7/20/2006 3:24:45 PM | Message Detail
I dunno, if you look at KH/SC, something happened there. would you take Halo to lose to Soul Calibur?


To be honest, I really don't know what happened there. I do expect KH to at least outperform Halo.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:28:43 PM | message detail
The fact that KH is a three-game

CoM won't help as much as you'd think

flagship Square RPG series

Ok, but so is Dragon Quest, but if you're picky that won't guarantee that they would be unstopable and Halo is the flagship Xbox series.

that will draw in Nintendo fanbase support

Again CoM won't help as much as you'd think

and doesn't get anti-voted as much as Halo.

Halo anti-votes have been dropping like pokemon's, but true they are still there.

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:31:11 PM | message detail
CoM won't help as much as you'd think

CoM helped put Sora over Alucard last year. I don't see why it can't help here.

Ok, but so is Dragon Quest, but if you're picky that won't guarantee that they would be unstopable and Halo is the flagship Xbox series.

But unlike DQ, KH is actually successful here. And the Xbox isn't a strong system on this site.

Halo anti-votes have been dropping like pokemon's, but true they are still there.

It is true that Halo anti-votes have been dropping. However, they are still a factor to consider.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:31:28 PM | message detail
Ok, but so is Dragon Quest

Not in the United States, so that's hardly a viable counterpoint.

And I would disagree with your point in your analysis about only KH fans picking up KHII. That definitely applies more to Halo 2 than Kingdom Hearts. Sales for the original Kingdom Hearts and Chain of Memories have gone up noticeably since since KHII's release.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:32:09 PM | message detail
CoM helped put Sora over Alucard last year.

Uhh...I don't know if I'd go that far.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
SuperiorSnake | Posted 7/20/2006 3:33:08 PM | message detail
Ok, but so is Dragon Quest,

Kingdom Hearts is far more popular in the States than Dragon Quest could hope to be. That is not really the best example to use here, especially since its origins are with Enix anyway.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 3:33:25 PM | message detail
CoM helped put Sora over Alucard last year. I don't see why it can't help here.

Negligible. Sora already was the favorite just going by the stats, and it didn't help that Alucard was behind Ganondorf's erroneous 2k4 adjustment.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:34:02 PM | message detail
Uhh...I don't know if I'd go that far.

Actually, CoM was the sole reason I took Sora over Alucard last year.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:34:44 PM | message detail
I think KH also gets antivoted for being "kiddie". that's the only way to explain SC getting 49% on it.

basically, KH has yet to have a single impressive match in a contest setting. I don't see its match with HM being impressive, and it's possible that Fire Emblem beats it if you worship the x-stats. granted that would never happen, but still, I don't see why KH would be the favourite here. you have to believe two things:

- KH2 accounts for a lot;

- Sora beating Alucard is indicitive of tomorrow's match

on the other hand, Castlevania beat Halo pretty good, old series have impressed and it certainly has more diversity than KH does. all contest trends so far have gone towards Castlevania's side, especially old platforming series' like Mega Man and Sonic doing well.

I think the match is extremely even, but I certainly wouldn't say that KH has the advantage.
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yzzyx
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:35:31 PM | message detail
Sora already was the favorite just going by the stats

I thought Alucard was the favorite by a slim margin.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:36:44 PM | message detail
Actually, CoM was the sole reason I took Sora over Alucard last year.

That doesn't mean that's what caused it. In a close match, you favor the one with the bigger intangibles, and that was definitely Sora. It was the same reason for taking Tidus over Shadow.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:37:22 PM | message detail
wasn't Alucard behind the Biggest SFF Of All Time in 2k4? I don't believe we've ever had a good reading on Alucard.
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yzzyx
charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:37:46 PM | message detail
CoM helped put Sora over Alucard last year. I don't see why it can't help here.

Helped, but wasn't the reason why Sora won.

LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:31:28 PM | message detail
And I would disagree with your point in your analysis about only KH fans picking up KHII. That definitely applies more to Halo 2 than Kingdom Hearts. Sales for the original Kingdom Hearts and Chain of Memories have gone up noticeably since since KHII's release.

First of all Halo 2 has outsold the original, but what I meant was that a higher amount of people probably bought Halo 2 than the original compare to KHII.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:38:53 PM | message detail
At the 18:35 mark, this match has 95143 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Zelda/Civilization - 91519
Metal Gear/Soul Calibur - 92364
SSB/DQ - 99237
RE/SH - 93220
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Draco1214 | Posted 7/20/2006 3:39:13 PM | message detail
That doesn't mean that's what caused it. In a close match, you favor the one with the bigger intangibles, and that was definitely Sora. It was the same reason for taking Tidus over Shadow.

Regardless, CoM had some effect on the KH series. How big the effect was is questionable, but I do think CoM will help the series here.
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Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 3:39:43 PM | message detail
I thought Alucard was the favorite by a slim margin.

If you use the 2k4 stats, yeah. Not if you use the 2k3 stats, though.

And I think Sephy/Alucard is an alright reading. I never understood why people thought Sephiroth 'overperformed' on him. If Cloud couldn't, why could he?

Of course that begs the question as to why Tifa overperformed on Vyse when Cloud couldn't, but still.
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:40:11 PM | message detail
First of all Halo 2 has outsold the original, but what I meant was that a higher amount of people probably bought Halo 2 than the original compare to KHII.

I would expect the overlap between Halo and Halo 2 fans to be bigger nonetheless.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:41:02 PM | message detail
Of course that begs the question as to why Tifa overperformed on Vyse when Cloud couldn't, but still.

well, Cloud is so much stronger than Tifa that it's hard to overperform by that much. same with Link and Samus.
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yzzyx
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/20/2006 3:41:33 PM | message detail
And I think Sephy/Alucard is an alright reading. I never understood why people thought Sephiroth 'overperformed' on him. If Cloud couldn't, why could he?

Well, we don't know if he did or he didn't, what with Cloud/Mario. Besides, you've got the KHF to work in between those two performances.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
The n00b Avenger | Posted 7/20/2006 3:42:34 PM | message detail
I don't know. A lot of people played Kingdom Hearts 1 but the game wasn't all THAT great. It seems people were a lot more pleased with KH2. I don't think KH2 is going to benefit by bringing more people to play the game, but rather to get people that already played the game to actually care about the series.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
MnMZero | Posted 7/20/2006 3:43:34 PM | message detail
It's not the fact that Castlevania upset Halo, but it beat it pretty soundly. Seeing how strong Sonic was against Devil May Cry and Mega Man was against Mario Kart, and its clear that there is something up with the well established series.

As for Kingdom Hearts, it's not like Chain of Memories automatically give it indie cred (new stats topic fad!) with the Nintendo fanbase. Harvest Moon pretty much proved that. Kingdom Hearts isn't looking strong at all. It's Square/FF affiliation is the only thing that can save it...
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
MnMZero | Posted 7/20/2006 3:45:19 PM | message detail
Ah, incomplete thought. I forgot to mention that Nintendo affiliated games have all impressed in this contest so far. I still stand by that KH2 has made KH as a whole much more popular. But as this contest has progressed, Castlevania has shown to hold the intangibles.
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 3:45:42 PM | message detail
I make all the great stats topic fads! Sure, it takes Ulti and tranny to popularize them, but never forget your roots!
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
trannyscience | Posted 7/20/2006 3:46:18 PM | message detail
indie cred is a stats topic fad? I made that alt for Icon six months ago!
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yzzyx
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/20/2006 3:47:20 PM | message detail
And gave it away like a sucker!
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.