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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 319

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Starion | Posted 7/20/2006 7:28:41 AM | message detail

Metal Gear might not even double FE if this percentage loss continues. Wonder what that means for its performance against CV/KH.

dragoontheguy | Posted 7/20/2006 7:30:03 AM | message detail

Obviously metal gear's certain failure to double fire emblem is a sign telling us that CV will slaughter it!

*runs*
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When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408

shadow8021 | Posted 7/20/2006 7:38:26 AM | message detail

Metal Gear might not avoid the doubling by Zelda now.
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Series Contest Score: 18/20
Today's Pick: Metal Gear

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 7:38:37 AM | message detail

I wouldn't put too much stock in this result today. Does anyone really believe Fire Emblem can beat Soul Calibur? And even if you do, then doesn't this result speak for Fire Emblem being strong rather than Metal Gear being weak?

There's probably a big overperformance from Fire Emblem here anyway. Fire Emblem is immediately recognizable thanks to the axe guy, and Metal Gear just isn't.

Seriously, if I were to look at the pic only I'd vote for Fire Emblem (not knowing what the other series is), even though I'm a huge MGS fan. It could also be that some voters think Metal Gear Solid doesn't count for today, as I believe Karma Hunter pointed out already.

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 7:41:38 AM | message detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 7:46:48 AM | message detail

If you're going to gauge Metal Gear's strength, do it from its first match. And the results from that match are telling me that Metal Gear will have a safe trip to the semi-finals, comfortably dispatching Castlevania along the way.

Or Kingdom Hearts of course, but I doubt it at this point. We'll see tomorrow.

BTW, for the ones thinking KH will not only beat CV, but also MG, you have to ask yourself if you really think that Soul Calibur would fail to break 55.35% on Harvest Moon.

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

voltch | Posted 7/20/2006 7:51:14 AM | message detail

Metal gear no longer has to fear horrible pics anymore.
it's now 100% guarenteed a spot in the final four.
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come

DeepHyren12 | Posted 7/20/2006 8:09:28 AM | message detail

hmmm....

given that the name of the series is just "metal gear," not "metal gear solid" and that the pictures are sprites, is it possible that some people think that they're voting for the NES/MSX games and not for the MGS games?
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"Civil government is in reality instituted for the defense of the rich against the poor" --Adam Smith

MarioSuperstar | Posted 7/20/2006 8:12:28 AM | message detail

I doubt it'd be winning if they were literally voting for the game Metal Gear.

and I know this is late but HEY I LOVE GENO. :(
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“Back in my day we used to actually play our videogames instead of watching them.” - Vivi0198

Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/20/2006 8:15:54 AM | message detail

FE's gonna kill the doubling at this rate.

Hell, at this rate it might reach 35% before the match is over.
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consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 8:16:24 AM | message detail

I doubt it'd be winning if they were literally voting for the game Metal Gear.

and I know this is late but HEY I LOVE GENO. :(

"They" are not all the same entities, of course. I mean, I certainly voted as if it was MGS. But there's a good chance that some, if not a significant amount are, in fact, voting for FE because they think it's just MG.

And Metal Gear, without the Solid, is a series too, you know. So it's definitely possible.

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

MnMZero | Posted 7/20/2006 8:21:14 AM | message detail

Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/20/2006 8:22:31 AM | message detail

No.
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Phediuk | Posted 7/20/2006 8:22:51 AM | message detail

Don't even bring up Solid **** today. Fire Emblem has it way worse off; Marth's sprite is from a Japan-only game for God's sake. As for the Brigand, you'll only recognize him if you've played a lot of the GBA FEs.

And besides, the original Metal Gear is far more widely-played than any of the FE games. MG's supposed "unrecognizability" really doesn't hold a lot of water in this match.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

steve illumina | Posted 7/20/2006 8:23:42 AM | message detail

Ah tomorrow...will be blissful...to see KH advance...all I care about is the 2 points here...cause KH really can never hold a candle to CV overall...but the RPG and Square legions will propel it to victory here...and that is why I never gave it a second thought to make it up to Metal Gear, which will beat it...barely...

CV deserves better...oh well...I cant have everything, but I can have my perfect bracket live on another day :)
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 22-0. Next Win: K HEARTS!

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 8:29:20 AM | message detail

People are actually saying that Metal Gear could be underperforming because people may think they are voting only for the original Metal Gear? After countless arguments about how people know this is a series contest, and Mega Man encompassing everything?

Face it, Metal Gear is vulnerable!!!!

It is exactly this consciousness that leads me to believe that the voters may make a difference between MG and MGS. Even if they were to think it was in fact both MG and MGS, they may be strayed from that thought after seeing the match pic.

We're talking about limited influence, of course, but influence nonetheless -- the results are still flawed. Why must people insist on neglecting Metal Gear's performance on Soul Calibur and put weight on today's match?

And Mega Man being stronger than Mega Man X, directly or indirectly, has been all but proven, even though I would also think Mega Man is indirectly stronger. Anyway, that's a bit of an unfair comparison, because even if MMX is weaker than MM, it'd be nowhere near as weak comparatively as MG to MGS.

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 8:36:57 AM | message detail

Don't even bring up Solid **** today. Fire Emblem has it way worse off; Marth's sprite is from a Japan-only game for God's sake. As for the Brigand, you'll only recognize him if you've played a lot of the GBA FEs.

'A lot of' ? I believe they show up as soon as the tutorial with Lyndis. And where other than the GBA FE's would the popularity come from? The GC version? Probably, some of it, but considering the less -than - stellar sales (more so than either of the GBA versions) I don't think it contributes a lot.

At least it's recognizable at all. MG just isn't (to MGS players). Are you saying the Metal Gear (sans Solid) games are more important to MGS' popularity than the GBA FE's to FE? On GameFAQs?

Come now, MG is at a major disadvantage pic-wise.

And besides, the original Metal Gear is far more widely-played than any of the FE games. MG's supposed "unrecognizability" really doesn't hold a lot of water in this match.

It would appear so indeed, considering the percentages.

But if MG wants to put up numbers on Fire Emblem like it did on Soul Calibur (like people appear to be expecting) it's going to need MGS support (all of it), and you know it.
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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

Big Bob | Posted 7/20/2006 9:05:57 AM | message detail

The SS sprite is more recognizable since MGS3S came out with MG as a bonus game.
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This space reserved for a new sig.

MnMZero | Posted 7/20/2006 9:10:03 AM | message detail

I've been playing Mario RPG all week... I still don't get why people like Bowser (or Geno - huh?) I like Bowser better as a dude I get to drop into lava by hitting an axe.

Bowser is awesome in everything that he does!!!
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*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest

Master Moltar | Posted 7/20/2006 9:14:04 AM | message detail

Wow, call it an overperformance/underperformance/picture disadvantage whatever, MG just isn't looking at all good today.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Metal Gear vs. Fire Emblem - Bracket: MG - Vote: MG (18/20)

Ed Bellis | Posted 7/20/2006 9:18:17 AM | message detail

steve illumina | Posted 7/20/2006 9:20:13 AM | message detail

Revered on 7 continents...admired from Board 8 to LUE and back again...he is...

Steve Illumina

Making my way out from the curtains, holding a lil mic..."Greetings to all my fans and fanbabies, to the noobs and elites alike! I am of course, Steve Illumina, your resident satirical analyst..."

"As is traditional here on Steve Illumina Speaks, we begin with the Tale of the Tape, or shall I say, the Disc"

'Then in the name of the Master, I shall feast on your soul this night!'
VS
'Who are the Heartless?'

Sage's Pick: The Hundred Acre Wood
Fanbabies' Pick: Wonderland
Blast from the Past: Mirai's Pick: Castlevania

For today's show, I give you all..a state of the contest address!

"This is the first of three matches in Round 2 that will break the backs of the 300 or so remaining perfects who are tied with yours truly...and propel me to leaderboard glory. 'Shame on me for filling out my bracket the last day...or I would already be there!' But for any kiddie who thinks I really dont have a perfect...just go to the Guru contest thread and go to the Guru website, and you will see it with your own doubting eyes...

As the only Board 8 analyst with a Perfect bracket...my credibility is much higher than all these noob analysts that think they know everything...so all of you listen up, and heed the words of the Sage of Board 8...

The following things that 99.9% of peeps rely on for making their predictions really do not mean anything...no matter how much the other analysts around here will try to lead you to believe, it is all nonsense! I mean, look at me, my perfect bracket, the product of pure knowledge of gaming historical trends and such, and nothing more. What say you to that? Hmmm???

Without further adieu, the laundry list of bogus analyses justifications:

X Stats: This nonsense concept should be published as a book for nerds to read while taking breaks between PSAT tests. Funnier still is peeps trying to plug the holes in their theories when an unforseen result happens, like yesterday.

Extrapolation: Ditto.

SFF: No such thing exists. If peeps like 2 games, they like them. Period. Dont matter what system they are on, since most series are now on more than 1 system.

RSFF: WTF?

Pictures: Peeps know what games are cause they played them, read about them, etc. Whether a pic is a sprite or art or anything else is irrelevant...but thousands swear it makes the difference. You could have no pics at all, peeps will still vote the SAME WAY.

Left Side/Right Side: Again, meaningless. Peeps have eyes, and they will look at both sides of the poll box, if for no other reason than to see the pretty pictures!

Beating Fodder: The relevance of match to match history is meaningless too. Just cause one series blows out another does not mean it will do this to every opponent it faces down the road.

Prior Unrelated Contests: Just cause a character wins a match in 2002 or whenever, it dont mean the game or series is guaranteed to also win here in 2006. Too many fools think this...but really, a game or series is greater than a character alone, even an iconic character like Mario...this is a whole different animal this year then a character tourney.

Anti-Voting: Another overblown concept that does not exist. Peeps will vote for the lesser of two evils, or vote in a joking or sympathy manner, before doing this crybaby defense.

Sales/Number of FAQs/Number of Games: Meaningless all. IF sales mattered, than where is The Matrix game series? IF FAQs mattered, where is Chrono Trigger? If Number of Games mattered, where is Pac Man?"

*Polishes my perfect bracket with Pledge*

(continued in the next post due to size limits!)

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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 22-0. Next Win: K HEARTS!

steve illumina | Posted 7/20/2006 9:20:36 AM | message detail

*Now for what DOES matter!*

Gaming History: When I made my beautiful bracket...I thought mostly about the history of gaming over the years, and realized from Day 1 that peeps would be taking these series collectively. Peeps would look at FF and consider ALL of it, not just Cloudy & Squally. Peeps would look at Castlevania and see all the amazing games, not just Alucard's moments in the moonlight. Peeps also would favor the old over the new in most cases, and modern era duets and triplets would be in trouble against classics. So far so good on this point eh?

Seeds: Ceej plays with seeding in an effort to shake things up, and you must be able to recognize it to achieve glory here. The Ultima division is loaded with this, and you must use this to your advantage in finding the most likely upsets! Here again, I've done all right! :)

Website Traffic/RPG Love: This site is all about RPGs, and Square is King of that genre, and other than the Grand Quadrant of Zelda and Mario and Metal Gear and Mega Man, no other non-RPG series stands a chance against any top tier RPG series made by Square. Its a firm rule kiddies...and tomorrow this will be proven. KH would do the same thing to Sonic, Street Fighter, Resident Evil, and Metroid that it is going to do tomorrow against CV. Chrono would have done the same if it were here. "

*Looks to the sky as I see my name in lights on the leaderboard soon*

Led by an alliance of Square Legions, Girly Gamers who love Disney and Square and think Sephy is 'cute', Little Kiddies, and the RPG contingent worldwide...KH will beat CV by a narrow margin, for the casuals will keep it tightly close, may even go back and forth like GTA/WC. But when the Keyblades and Whips are laid to rest...I shall be 24-0! And an estimated 150-200 perfects will remain...

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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 22-0. Next Win: K HEARTS!

TRE Public Account | Posted 7/20/2006 9:25:24 AM | message detail

Come now, MG is at a major disadvantage pic-wise.

Major? Take the Brigand out of the picture. How much better do you expect MG to be doing?
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Slowflake | Posted 7/20/2006 9:32:08 AM | message detail

Wow, MG isn't even doubling FE anymore. Last night it was still looking all right, but if FE continues like that it's going to get a wee bit ridiculous.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego

BDawg | Posted 7/20/2006 9:35:50 AM | message detail

Fire Emblem is only going to get stronger. I mean there is actually some, albeit miniscule, HYPE for the Wii sequel to PoR.
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Should I start running now?

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 9:46:33 AM | message detail

...I still don't get how the argument that Metal Gear is underperforming due to the lack of "Solid" in its name has any merit. As mnm is fond of saying, the voters aren't stupid, and they won't not vote for a series because the name is a little different than they're used to. People who know MGS are presumably familiar enough with the name (since you can't, y'know, say "Metal Gear Solid" without "Metal Gear") to make the distinction.

But what would be so unbelievable about the Metal Gear series being, in fact, split between MG and MGS? I mean, MM and MMX are split. The distinction is very makeable, stupid or not, certainly if the picture seems to tell the voter that it is just MG.

It's not going to make 10s of percentages of difference, but it definitely is a factor that just makes this match less interesting for gauging MG's strength.

Also, even if Fire Emblem were somehow overperforming today because of sprites, I don't see it affecting the percentages this strongly... either Fire Emblem is stronger than we thought (over Soul Calibur? really?), Metal Gear is weaker, or some combination of both. I don't think it's got anything to do with lack of name recognition or recognizable pictures.

It's not like the pic can't make a difference. Snake - Frog anyone? But regardless of the influence, it doesn't really make MG look bad. If it fails the doubling, that just means it's breaking 65% on a series that is stronger than Soul Calibur. Pretty good if you ask me.

But exactly because I just don't see Fire Emblem being anywhere near stronger than Soul Calibur, I'm thinking the pic must be hurting MG today.

Major? Take the Brigand out of the picture. How much better do you expect MG to be doing?

I'd say it's not so much Fire Emblem being recognizable, as it is Metal Gear Solid not being recognizable, though. So I'd think that wouldn't make much of a difference.

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

Ed Bellis | Posted 7/20/2006 9:53:27 AM | message detail

But what would be so unbelievable about the Metal Gear series being, in fact, split between MG and MGS? I mean, MM and MMX are split. The distinction is very makeable, stupid or not, certainly if the picture seems to tell the voter that it is just MG.

Because Mega Man and Mega Man X are, in effect, separate franchises. What is exclusively "Metal Gear"? The first game, its sequel, and perhaps a few miscellaneous entries here and three. Unless I'm mistaken, pretty much every game with the Metal Gear name on it released within the past decade or so has had "Solid" at the end. I sincerely doubt the games without "Solid" have enough of a fanbase on this site to merit a "split" between them.

Compare this with Mega Man anc Mega Man X, which are separate, well-established franchises. The original Metal Gear games are presumably popular here because of MGS and the new generation of the games. It goes back to my argument earlier about how certain games just don't factor into a series' popularity as much as others do.

But exactly because I just don't see Fire Emblem being anywhere near stronger than Soul Calibur, I'm thinking the pic must be hurting MG today.

The more I think about it, the more it wouldn't surprise me if Fire Emblem was stronger than Metal Gear. We've seen pretty much everything Starcraft touched flop horribly thus far (Halo, Kingdom Hearts [although we'll see on that one], Soul Calibur...). Maybe Soul Calibur really is just fodder and Fire Emblem would beat it in a direct match. I just don't put much stock in pictures, at least not enough to pass off Fire Emblem outperforming Soul Calibur because of it.
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This was Ed Bellis.

Slowflake | Posted 7/20/2006 9:54:53 AM | message detail

Quiz question: could a potential MG/MGS separation apply to Metroid and Metroid Prime in the same way?
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 10:01:59 AM | message detail

Because Mega Man and Mega Man X are, in effect, separate franchises. What is exclusively "Metal Gear"? The first game, its sequel, and perhaps a few miscellaneous entries here and three. Unless I'm mistaken, pretty much every game with the Metal Gear name on it released within the past decade or so has had "Solid" at the end. I sincerely doubt the games without "Solid" have enough of a fanbase on this site to merit a "split" between them.

Compare this with Mega Man anc Mega Man X, which are separate, well-established franchises. The original Metal Gear games are presumably popular here because of MGS and the new generation of the games. It goes back to my argument earlier about how certain games just don't factor into a series' popularity as much as others do.

Yeah so you're saying MG doesn't add much to MGS. This would support the argument about the picture having some potential influence.

As far as warranting a split between MG and MGS, or between MM and MMX, I can't really comment on that having played only MGS.

The more I think about it, the more it wouldn't surprise me if Fire Emblem was stronger than Metal Gear. We've seen pretty much everything Starcraft touched flop horribly thus far (Halo, Kingdom Hearts [although we'll see on that one], Soul Calibur...). Maybe Soul Calibur really is just fodder and Fire Emblem would beat it in a direct match. I just don't put much stock in pictures, at least not enough to pass off Fire Emblem outperforming Soul Calibur because of it.

I'd rather put the stock in this pic screwing things over (Snake got screwed pretty savagely against Frog) than the games contest being that messed up. Besides, KH and SC are very much linked to each other, so unless KH is very weak, SC isn't either. I expect Castlevania to win tomorrow, but I also expect KH to be a strong series in the end.

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

Ed Bellis | Posted 7/20/2006 10:06:11 AM | message detail

Yeah so you're saying MG doesn't add much to MGS. This would support the argument about the picture having some potential influence.

I'm not saying the picture doesn't have any influence. I'm saying that I just don't see it affecting a match to this degree. Fire Emblem might be overperforming, but again I don't want to place all of FE's success on the match pic. I think it's more likely that, as I've said before, either Fire Emblem is stronger than we thought, or MG/SC are both weaker, both of which are more plausible than overperforming. Fire Emblem's got a crap picture too, y'know. =P
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This was Ed Bellis.

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 10:14:28 AM | message detail

I'm not saying the picture doesn't have any influence. I'm saying that I just don't see it affecting a match to this degree. Fire Emblem might be overperforming, but again I don't want to place all of FE's success on the match pic. I think it's more likely that, as I've said before, either Fire Emblem is stronger than we thought, or MG/SC are both weaker, both of which are more plausible than overperforming.

Ah but, logically, even when neglecting any contest data, Fire Emblem over Soul Calibur? I just don't see that happening. I mean if Fire Emblem can manage 35.05%, which seems very possible at this point, Soul Calibur would be weaker than Silent Hill according to these percentages. Can you honestly tell me you would take Silent Hill over Soul Calibur?

Fire Emblem's got a crap picture too, y'know. =P

Ah I've been over this :p

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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

TRE Public Account | Posted 7/20/2006 10:15:07 AM | message detail

I'd say it's not so much Fire Emblem being recognizable, as it is Metal Gear Solid not being recognizable, though. So I'd think that wouldn't make much of a difference.

I can't see how Metal Gear could be hurt significantly worse than Fire Emblem by the picture. The Metal Gear name should hold up a lot better than Fire Emblem without picture support.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

XIII_rocks | Posted 7/20/2006 10:19:19 AM | message detail

Illumina, to clarify - do you have Kingdom Hearts over Castlevania?
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Nominate XIII for the '06 Character Contest! >.>;

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 10:20:10 AM | message detail

I can't see how Metal Gear could be hurt significantly worse than Fire Emblem by the picture. The Metal Gear name should hold up a lot better than Fire Emblem without picture support.

I don't see how Fire Emblem needs to rely on its pic more so than Metal Gear. Certainly if you take into account that there's absolutely no distinction to be made concerning the Fire Emblem series.

So aside from Metal Gear naturally being a lot stronger than Fire Emblem, I don't see how the Metal Gear name should hold up a lot better.
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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/20/2006 10:41:09 AM | message detail

Quiz question: could a potential MG/MGS separation apply to Metroid and Metroid Prime in the same way?

Is anyone really arguing a MG/MGS seperation besides consolefreak, who is arguing out his ass just to justify MGS being strong despite FE's "surprising" performance today?

I think the Metroid/MP rift is much greater than any MG/MGS rift. At least Super Metroid and the GBA games have some fans. Does anyone actually like the pre-Solid MG games?
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transience | Posted 7/20/2006 10:46:26 AM | message detail

funny, no one argued that when it was putting 70% on Soul Calibur. people aren't that stupid, ya know. they just like Fire Emblem more than you thought they did. Metal Gear is still doubling it here and is looking fine come next round. this isn't anything to overanalyze.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!

charmander6000 | Posted 7/20/2006 10:48:03 AM | message detail

This doesn't look good for Kingdom Hearts.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/20/2006 10:51:59 AM | message detail

funny, no one argued that when it was putting 70% on Soul Calibur. people aren't that stupid, ya know.

Primarily because it had a picture that clearly showed it was taking into account Metal Gear Solid. This picture not only just has the "Metal Gear" name, but is also complete with sprites from the old games. If you're making the argument, that'd be the difference between the two rounds.

I hate sprite round. Hate hate hate hate it. >>

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake

Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/20/2006 10:52:22 AM | message detail

Metal Gear is still doubling it here

Not anymore.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 7/20/2006 10:55:44 AM | message detail

I ain't really complaining here. This match makes Silent Hill look better, and Metal Gear is still doing enough to give it the division.

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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
Nominate XIII for the '06 Character Contest! >.>;

transience | Posted 7/20/2006 10:57:19 AM | message detail

I hate sprite round. Hate hate hate hate it. >>

but, um, it's still winning by a large margin and it's not going to affect "you" come the next round. if anything, you should be glad that it's this round.

I really don't think 10% of the vote is changed by that picture. you're rationalizing the result because it's not what you expected, if anything.
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xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!

Janus5000 | Posted 7/20/2006 10:58:01 AM | message detail

Didn't the Mega Man picture only use art for classic series characters? It seemed to do just fine there.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."

consolefreak | Posted 7/20/2006 11:06:45 AM | message detail

Is anyone really arguing a MG/MGS seperation besides consolefreak, who is arguing out his ass just to justify MGS being strong despite FE's "surprising" performance today?

I've said numerous times that I personally would not use this match to gauge Metal Gear's strength. And I also said that even if the pic's not doing anything, it speaks for Fire Emblem being strong rather than Metal Gear being weak.

And I didn't even bring up this point in the first place. But yeah, thanks for your content full contribution. Nice reading skills btw.

funny, no one argued that when it was putting 70% on Soul Calibur. people aren't that stupid, ya know. they just like Fire Emblem more than you thought they did. Metal Gear is still doubling it here and is looking fine come next round. this isn't anything to overanalyze.

Regardless of the outcome of this match and the influence of the pic, I'm certain Metal Gear will win the next round. I thought I had made this clear.

But what you're saying doesn't really make any sense when the last pic had Liquid Snake and Psycho Mantis in it.

I really don't think 10% of the vote is changed by that picture. you're rationalizing the result because it's not what you expected, if anything.

Correct. And it makes a lot more sense than saying Silent Hill goes neck to neck with Soul Calibur, if you ask me.

Didn't the Mega Man picture only use art for classic series characters? It seemed to do just fine there.

Well MG isn't nearly as popular as MGS, as opposed to MM and MMX.
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"I didn't come to play, I came to win" - Kamahl, Pit Fighter.

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/20/2006 11:11:03 AM | message detail

I don't really peg this performance, not meeting expectations or not, on the picture. Looking back, though, Metal Gear related games/characters have a tendency to look like they have underperformed in the sprite round. It is a good thing we're getting the sprite round out of the way against something like Fire Emblem, certainly. I still can't help but try to figure out the reason for this performance.

On one hand, that picture for Metal Gear, while better than some others, does give off that feeling that it is the old school series. It is certainly not affecting everyone's mind, but I can see it affecting quite a few. Then Metal Gear just tends to perform rather poorly when it comes to sprite round anyway.

On the other, Fire Emblem much stronger than anticipated isn't too farfetched. It has a lot of things in its favor that could help it rise above the level of absolute fodder that many had suspected. The only time we have ever seen it perform is when its first game had been out for four months. So perhaps more than any other, it has a reason to rise far above expectations.

Probably a mixture of both and probably nothing to worry about since Metal Gear's path is pretty cut and dry. Still, it'd be nice to still see it nail that fourth strongest series deal.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake

Kaxon | Posted 7/20/2006 11:11:22 AM | message detail

From: transience | Posted: 7/19/2006 11:28:30 PM | Message Detail
I go something like...

1. Ultima IV
2. Bard's Tale
3. DW1
4. FF1

I'm so old :(

Nice selection!
1. Bard's Tale (Apple IIgs version, baby!)
2. Bard's Tale II
3. Ultima III (NES)
4. Final Fantasy
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Nominate Aeris for SC2k6

steve illumina | Posted 7/20/2006 11:11:28 AM | message detail

Illumina, to clarify - do you have Kingdom Hearts over Castlevania?

I do...and I hath no regrets! I am ridin' the fanboy train to the 24-0 station!
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Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8, Hated by Fanbabies, Loved by the Masses.
Score: 22-0. Next Win: K HEARTS!

Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/20/2006 11:13:24 AM | message detail

You picked Kingdom Hearts? Looks like RPGuy will be the one to continue the perfect bracket for the stats topic!!

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake

TRE Public Account | Posted 7/20/2006 11:13:40 AM | message detail

So aside from Metal Gear naturally being a lot stronger than Fire Emblem, I don't see how the Metal Gear name should hold up a lot better.

That pretty much is the reason. Pictures really only matter for voters who don't have a strong connection to either series. They will still easily recognize Metal Gear(because even non-fans recognize the name Metal Gear) but may have more trouble with Fire Emblem. A picture would help them remember Fire Emblem better. Even if I'm wrong on this, I still can't see Metal Gear being hurt signifcantly more than Fire Emblem by a bad picture.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

voltch | Posted 7/20/2006 11:15:21 AM | message detail

do people still use X-stats for a character battle?
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Kilroy:Their fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft.
BrentfordFC-championship here we come

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