GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 319
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| Sir Bormun | Posted 7/19/2006 9:50:56 PM | message detail |
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SF could benefit from the "classic stuff does better" thing that this
contest has going. But RE's gotta be the favorite going in. And Lopen's point about Silent Hill is a good one. In the poll that cyko showed on Konami series, Silent Hill lost to Suikoden, Contra, and Yu-Gi-Oh. And mainstream movies never help on GameFAQs. So yeah. Fire Emblem is not strong. It's a big series in Japan that has just started to get recognition in the States. After seeing Dragon Quest... well, those types of series may not be so strong. --- Need new sig. |
| xp1337 | Posted 7/19/2006 9:52:24 PM | message detail |
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if KH is even with MGS, then FE gets 57.83% on Harvest Moon. I could see FE passing that by a bit. I'm hesitant to go much further over 60 though. if SSB is even with MGS, then FE gets 62.93% on Dragon Quest. On the other hand, I can't see FE making 63 on DQ, although I would take it to win. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? SpC2k6 (19/20) MG v FE |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:52:25 PM | message detail |
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Holy crap, I just remembered something. Look at the board's opinions on these matches: Spring 2004 Halo/Starcraft could be close, but whoever wins is just Kingdom Hearts jobber. Summer (lol delays) 2006 Halo/Castlevania could be close, but whoever wins is Kingdom Hearts jobber. Yeah, this hasn't been pointed out before. And I'd take Fire Emblem over Dragon Quest without hesitating. I'd wager it could beat it easily, at that. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| Big Bob | Posted 7/19/2006 9:52:31 PM | message detail |
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One match I think is being overhyped: Sonic/SSB. I may be one of the biggest Sonic fans on this board, but I don't think he has a chance here. SSB is an orgy of Nintendo, one of the two strongest forces on this site. Sonic 2 may not be his strongest game, but even I don't think Sonic & Knuckles could beat Super Mario World, and it'd be 60-40 at best. The anticipation for Brawl is HUGE compared to Sonic Next-Gen and Sonic Wildfire. Sonic certainly impressed against DMC, but SSB almost impressed against DQ. It'll be 60-40, and it will be a sad day for me. --- This space reserved for a new sig. |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 9:53:42 PM | message detail |
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I wonder if SSB would beat Metal Gear... I know I wouldn't take SSB over Metal Gear. I can see Metal Gear doing better than what SSB did on Dragon Quest, but the Fire Emblem on Dragon Quest deal seems strange. I would wager that's purely because I had a previous idea of Fire Emblem's strength and now it seems like I completely underestimated it. Fire Emblem doing quite well in these contests does make some sense when you think about everything. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 9:53:44 PM | message detail |
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I don't CARE what people's expecations are; get that through your
head. You wanted to contend that there's no way one could think Metal
Gear's performance on Soul Calibur was 'overkill'. Looking at the
X-Stats, it was just that. Firstly, we have no past series x-stats. Only indirectly related data. Secondly...what exactly are you trying to get at then? If one is not discussing performance relative to actual expectations, then things like "overkill" have no meaningful definition. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| cyko | Posted 7/19/2006 9:53:59 PM | message detail |
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wow, cyko beat me to it. heh, my powers of prediction are still ocasionally amazing. and for the record, after seeing the sales numbers for Harvest Moon and this site's insane love of RPGs, i would not be surprised at all to see Harvest Moon even with Silent Hill. --- "In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 7/19/2006 9:55:14 PM | message detail |
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From Slowflake Posted 7/20/2006 12:30:27 AM #078 Metroid/Pokémon is the biggest success of BOP entrants so far in this contest compared to total brackets, with a 31.43% difference. However, it's still, get this, in 49th place all-time. That means we've given those guys some serious reamings, and often at that. I'd like to see those rankings. ~*ST*~ --- *TRUE RKO King of Board 8* Currently Playing: Resident Evil 4, KH:COM (Sora), Larussa 92 (NYY), WC3: Frozen Throne |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 9:55:21 PM | message detail |
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it's supposed to beat the overwhelming Game of the Year? Thing is, RE has never been something that popular on this site before RE4. Arguably its second strongest game got blown out by MGS. While the characters are midcarder level, they still aren't as strong as Ryu (and possibly Ken/Chun-Li). Before RE4, no one would even think of putting RE > SF. Is one game suddenly supposed to reverse that and give RE an even bigger boost to land a decisive win over SF, especially when the whole "what have you done for me recently" mentality has been all but disproven? Also, I personally believe that the Street Fighter name carries more weight here in a series contest than a games one. Although RE4 gives RE Nintendo support, SF has enough "old-school" appeal being on the SNES and all, which many would say is the strongest system on this site. So yeah, that's why I think SF still has a good shot at an upset here. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| Lopen | Posted 7/19/2006 9:55:22 PM | message detail |
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Confused. Explain. You know. KH struggles with Soul Calibur two years ago. Now if Soul Calibur is a jobber, how good can KH really be, even with a boost? I'm not going there, though. Just saying what I figured others would be saying here. And no, I do not buy Silent Hill as anything resembling popular. And I picked it to beat Fire Emblem. At best for Metal Gear, this is what I made a slight hint to in my analysis, that Fire Emblem is like a mini Halo of sorts. Or that we can't really read into the "amount" of the blowout, and just know that Metal Gear will "get the job done". I don't think X-Stats are going to be useful for this contest anyway, so even if FE is weak, doesn't necessarily mean Metal Gear is weak too. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:55:25 PM | message detail |
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...I don't think I'd consider Harvest Moon to be a traditional RPG, or
at least the voters wouldn't see it as one. I don't care what it's
defined as. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| Slowflake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:55:50 PM | message detail |
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Look at the "Snake division is decided tomorrow" topic. Now do you understand why I didn't want to count this guy's bracket? It's not the first inane topic like that he makes either. --- Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 9:56:08 PM | message detail |
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After seeing Dragon Quest... well, those types of series may not be so strong. Fire Emblem has far more potential in strength than Dragon Quest could hope to obtain. Just by being a product of Nintendo gives it some type of strength that prevents it from falling into the set of obscure RPGs. The fact that it has three games released here, two characters in a very popular Nintendo game, and that it is seeing continual releases over here is enough for it to be quite a bit above Dragon Quest, I think. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| Slowflake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:56:15 PM | message detail |
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I'd like to see those rankings. BOP file, second-to-last spreadsheet. --- Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:57:01 PM | message detail |
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Before RE4, no one would even think of putting RE > SF. Is one
game suddenly supposed to reverse that and give RE an even bigger boost
to land a decisive win over SF, especially when the whole "what have
you done for me recently" mentality has been all but disproven? Well, I don't think no one would pick RE > SF. I just think it'd be much more even. I couldn't see SF being the decisive favorite. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| Lopen | Posted 7/19/2006 9:57:02 PM | message detail |
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And to everyone raving about RE4 being the GotY... what about GTA? What
about Metroid? Both have more impressive GotY resumes as of late, and
that didn't stop them from failing to meet our expectations. I don't think one game is going to help as much as I used to. I think there's more to this contest than that. --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 9:57:46 PM | message detail |
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Firstly, we have no past series x-stats. Only indirectly related data. Secondly...what exactly are you trying to get at then? If one is not discussing performance relative to actual expectations, then things like "overkill" have no meaningful definition. And the indirectly related data is what I care about, and what most statheads relied on when making their picks. Now the fact that it has burned them aside, it means that you CAN draw conclusions from them. Overkill still has a meaning when you use the stats as opposed to people's expectations. It's harder to use and it's not exactly totally reliable, but neither are the direct stats in the first place. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 7/19/2006 9:59:06 PM | message detail |
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Fire Emblem is in pretty much the same boat as Dragon Quest...the best
games in each series were only released in Japan, and they're just all
around much bigger over there. I'd struggle to take Fire Emblem in that
match and it's my favorite series (though my bias always wins in close
matches in the end.) This is Metal Gear saying it has no claim to being
the fourth strongest series. At this point in time, I'd go with Mega
Man, just as I would have in the beginning of the contest. --- Mustache...and green... |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:59:07 PM | message detail |
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And to everyone raving about RE4 being the GotY... what about GTA?
What about Metroid? Both have more impressive GotY resumes as of late,
and that didn't stop them from failing to meet our expectations. Ahh, that's a good point. I hadn't thought of that. Warcraft would never even sniff a GotY on GameFAQs, and while I know there was significant rallying, GTA doesn't beat it that badly without it. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| transience | Posted 7/19/2006 9:59:51 PM | message detail |
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it's supposed to beat the overwhelming Game of the Year? Thing is, RE has never been something that popular on this site before RE4. Arguably its second strongest game got blown out by MGS. While the characters are midcarder level, they still aren't as strong as Ryu (and possibly Ken/Chun-Li). Before RE4, no one would even think of putting RE > SF. Is one game suddenly supposed to reverse that and give RE an even bigger boost to land a decisive win over SF, especially when the whole "what have you done for me recently" mentality has been all but disproven? it'd be stupid to discount the biggest game in the series though, and it would beat the strongest SF game (likely SF2) down pretty good. Leon/Ryu is actually a debatable match, practically even in the x-stats if you take Snake sprite pictures into account. (I hate analyzing things that carefully, but they're only a couple percent apart as it is) add in a PS2 release and Leon > Ryu would probably get a lot of thought in the stats topic. --- xyzzy I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE! |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 10:00:05 PM | message detail |
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I'd struggle to take Fire Emblem in that match and it's my favorite
series (though my bias always wins in close matches in the end.) This
is Metal Gear saying it has no claim to being the fourth strongest
series. This is RPGuy drawing the wrong conclusion. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:00:26 PM | message detail |
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And to everyone raving about RE4 being the GotY... what about GTA?
What about Metroid? Both have more impressive GotY resumes as of late,
and that didn't stop them from failing to meet our expectations. I don't think one game is going to help as much as I used to. I think there's more to this contest than that. A fair point, but when you think about it, Street Fighter's main weapon is almost certainly nostalgia, not diversity. You say one game might not get it done. Will ten remakes of the same game get it done? --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 10:01:06 PM | message detail |
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I really doubt Mega Man ends up higher in the unadjusted stats than
Metal Gear does. And even if it does, I'd take Sonic to beat it handily. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 10:01:32 PM | message detail |
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You say one game might not get it done. Will ten remakes of the same game get it done? You know, the Alpha series and the Street Fighter versus games were pretty successful... --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:01:42 PM | message detail |
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At this point, I think the only series that might be able to challenge Metal Gear for the 4th spot is Mega Man. --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!! |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:01:45 PM | message detail |
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Will ten remakes of the same game get it done? It worked for Mega Man! --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:02:06 PM | message detail |
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Yeah, and if Metal Gear can manage 25% on the Legend of Zelda, Fire
Emblem isn't going to be much behind Mega Man X. I don't buy that even
with a lot of SFF. --- Mustache...and green... |
| Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/19/2006 10:02:09 PM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:02:13 PM | message detail |
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Burninated! --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!! |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 10:02:26 PM | message detail |
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Sonic > Mega Man, folks! --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| MegatokyoEd | Posted 7/19/2006 10:02:34 PM | message detail |
| If Sonic beats Smash Bros it'll be the 4th strongest series. |
| Lopen | Posted 7/19/2006 10:02:56 PM | message detail |
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Do not underestimate the nostalgia factor, friends. It will get the job done, that's just it! --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| NewLib | Posted 7/19/2006 10:03:08 PM | message detail |
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Is there any way we can get DQVIII sales and compare them to the two GBA FE and the GCN one? --- Where am I? |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 10:03:10 PM | message detail |
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Wow, FE just burst through 32%. Last I checked, 31.76% is less than 32%. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 10:03:28 PM | message detail |
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Wow, FE just burst through 32%. Blah blah troll blah blah --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 10:04:49 PM | message detail |
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This is Metal Gear saying it has no claim to being the fourth
strongest series. At this point in time, I'd go with Mega Man, just as
I would have in the beginning of the contest. Mega Man?! No way is that going to end up the strongest series in the contest. It doesn't have more claim to being the fourth strongest series over Metal Gear based upon today's performance. Metal Gear is not doing awful today at all. It is not impressing anyone, but it is not putting up a horrible performance. There is enough reason to believe that Fire Emblem would have more strength than anyone where was willing to give credit. Whether it is bigger in Japan or not is not relevant because no one is trying to make Fire Emblem out to be a beast in strength. It is still getting doubled by Metal Gear. It just is not going to end up being the uncared for fodder that everyone thought it would be. It's hard to erase those previously conceived expectations, but today's performance should get people thinking more about what potential Fire Emblem has/had over immediately jumping into thinking this is Metal Gear's weakness. --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 10:05:23 PM | message detail |
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Dragon Quest is uber-fodder in my eyes, it's hard for me to give it a
shot at too much, or even escaping the doubling of too much. SSB >
MG looms large in my eyes again, but then again the 'trend' of this
contest seems to work against it. If Sonic beats it I'll simply use
Mega Man as a gauge (since I doubt the two are very far away from one
another). --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Sir Bormun | Posted 7/19/2006 10:05:42 PM | message detail |
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The fact that it has three games released here, two characters in a
very popular Nintendo game, and that it is seeing continual releases
over here is enough for it to be quite a bit above Dragon Quest, I
think. I dunno. Path of Radiance was definitely less successful here than DQ8. And the other two Fire Emblem games were on portable systems, which doesn't work wonders on GameFAQs. Also, Dragon Quest does have more than just DQ8 to its name, although the connection to Dragon Warrior may not have been made. And the SSBM argument is a powerful one. It really launched Fire Emblem in the US. But... I can't see it as putting FE over the top by that much. --- Need new sig. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 7/19/2006 10:05:44 PM | message detail |
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Trolls aside, now FE really is close to 32%. --- Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough. Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 10:06:05 PM | message detail |
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Sonic > Mega Man, folks! Truth! --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |
| creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 10:06:20 PM | message detail |
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And the indirectly related data is what I care about, and what most
statheads relied on when making their picks. Now the fact that it has
burned them aside, it means that you CAN draw conclusions from them.
Overkill still has a meaning when you use the stats as opposed to
people's expectations. It's harder to use and it's not exactly totally
reliable, but neither are the direct stats in the first place. You have truly lost me. That past data does have relevancy and has been used to generate and influence expectations, yes - but data cannot have expectations, only people can. (especially data that isn't even direct) If you want to say "overkill relative to the stats implications" or something, then you kind of have to specify that with context. Because expectations are about individuals, and favorites+over/underperformances are about groups. I think this discussion is lasting too long and I still don't really get what you're trying to say, but basically, Metal Gear did not exceed consensus expectations on Soul Calibur. One cannot say it did, when it did not. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:06:47 PM | message detail |
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A fair point, but when you think about it, Street Fighter's main
weapon is almost certainly nostalgia, not diversity. You say one game
might not get it done. Will ten remakes of the same game get it done? That is true, but to be honest, it doesn't need diversity. Everyone has played a SF game. Having such a large fanbase can work to SF's favor. Nostalgia is indeed SF's biggest weapon, but in a contest where we've seen Castlevania upset Halo and possibly KH, it can be very powerful. As for SF only having one game in its arsenal, I beg to differ. SF Alpha games and the SF crossovers will be contributing to SF's strength. It won't add to the diversity, but it can expand SF's already large fanbase. --- Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2 |
| Janus5000 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:07:30 PM | message detail |
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It exceeded the stats topic's expectations. --- "Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything." |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 10:07:41 PM | message detail |
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And yeah, I don't have much faith in Dragon Quest being much of
anything. Most people on this site were too young to remember the days
when Dragon Warrior might have been popular here, so it was essentially
relying on (a little) Dragon Warrior VII and (mostly) Dragon Quest VIII. --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 10:07:42 PM | message detail |
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I think this discussion is lasting too long and I still don't really
get what you're trying to say, but basically, Metal Gear did not exceed
consensus expectations on Soul Calibur. One cannot say it did, when it
did not. And yet I never did. --- Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior. |
| Lopen | Posted 7/19/2006 10:07:49 PM | message detail |
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but it is not putting up a horrible performance Speak for yourself. It's under preforming by a good 20%!! --- Raiden is still [!!] nominations short! http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244 |
| YoAriel33 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:08:12 PM | message detail |
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I'm just picking a series from the rest of the pack. Obviously, it
won't be Metroid or Castlevania/Kingdom Hearts. Also, I feel Super
Mario Bros. will pound the Sonic/Smash winner into dust, leaving those
two entrants to look weaker than they really are. That just leaves Mega
Man, Resident Evil, and Street Fighter. Maybe Resident Evil could do
it. Who knows. --- Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be... part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!! |
| RPGuy96 | Posted 7/19/2006 10:08:19 PM | message detail |
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Look at it this way. Final Fantasy Tactics Advance
doubled Fire Emblem. (I still shudder to recall that.) You're
absolutely right when you say that most people don't hate FFTA as much
as, say, Sir Chris or I, but this isn't terribly impressive. Certainly
not as much as, say, 58% on Mario Kart. --- Mustache...and green... |
| LegendarySnake | Posted 7/19/2006 10:08:42 PM | message detail |
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And the other two Fire Emblem games were on portable systems, which doesn't work wonders on GameFAQs. Did you miss Pokemon/Metroid or something? --- I am the man who makes the impossible possible. I am the man, the legend: Solid Snake! |
| Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 10:09:03 PM | message detail |
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Is there any way we can get DQVIII sales and compare them to the two GBA FE and the GCN one? Dragon Quest VIII is around 400,000. Fire Emblem 7 is at 480,000. Fire Emblem : The Sacred Stones is at 308,000 Fire Emblem : Path of Radiance is at 180,000 --- "Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake |