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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 319

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transience | Posted 7/19/2006 8:55:07 PM | message detail
Metal Gear blowing out fodder? *presses Heroic Mario's fanboy button*

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/tre/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/top10/top10_100.html

Post.. without flooding the first page with meaningless inequalities!
YoAriel33 | Posted 7/19/2006 8:55:44 PM | message detail
Dibs on 320 with this account.
---
Watch and you'll see... someday I'll be...
part of your WOOOOOOOOORLD!!!
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/19/2006 8:55:46 PM | message detail
Knuckles > Metal Gear
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
Read_Only_Thx | Posted 7/19/2006 8:55:49 PM | message detail
FE with over 40%.
---
sig
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 8:55:53 PM | message detail
Post.. without flooding the first page with meaningless inequalities!

Metal Gear > Metroid
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Draco1214 | Posted 7/19/2006 8:56:17 PM | message detail
Metroid with 55% of the brackets.
---
Organization XIII - Number III - Xordac
Currently Playing - Suikoden V, Capcom vs. SNK 2
Janus5000 | Posted 7/19/2006 8:56:19 PM | message detail
Lopen might've had a chance to win tomorrow's point if Soul Calibur had advanced!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
FlamboyantSpy | Posted 7/19/2006 8:56:58 PM | message detail
METAL GEAR WITH 104%

---
Explicit Content
Cheer Up Emo Kids
XxSoulxX | Posted 7/19/2006 8:57:07 PM | message detail
Beat you to it Karma!
--- -
"ertyu is actually a language. For example, 'dum' is ertyunese for 'godly'." - Topaz Kitsune
Not changing signature until HHH pedigrees Candice through a table. 07/07/06
Big Bob | Posted 7/19/2006 8:57:27 PM | message detail
Metroid > Pokemon > Kirby
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This space reserved for a new sig.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/19/2006 8:58:33 PM | message detail
Hmph.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
cyko | Posted 7/19/2006 8:59:37 PM | message detail
i totally predicted yoblazer's new account name!!!

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"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/19/2006 9:14:49 PM | message detail
Big surprise.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 9:15:16 PM | message detail
cyko needs to be shot.

---
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 7/19/2006 9:15:27 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
18-----470-----72.7659574
17-----2747----68.5111030
16-----7514----63.1487889
15-----10758---59.5649749
14-----10141---57.5091214
13-----6791----54.3660727
12-----3895----52.4005135
11-----2011----45.7483839
10-----924-----39.9350649
9------417-----32.3741007
8------221-----33.0316742
7------105-----13.3333333
6------51------15.6862745
5------30------20.0000000
4------15------6.6666667

Everyone with a score of 3 or less got the match wrong.
Overall Prediction Percentage: 57.29%

If you asked most people before the match, the perfects only getting 73% would be pretty bad. Considering how the match turned out, it was actually a pretty nice job. They were a cut above the -1s who were a cut above the -2s who were a cut above the -3s.

13 people fell off the Top 50 today. sparkmdark1, CalypsoPSO, FFIXOwner, gamer421s_soul, DarkJiNx, Mortalmovieman, murph7272, 420addict, The_Gelugon, Sharp_Cheddah, Skinsiscool, Zetsumi and former first place LastFencer920 all took a gamble on Pokemon. It was pretty close but not good enough so they fall.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
Master Moltar | Posted 7/19/2006 9:15:35 PM | message detail
Wow, MG will probably get the day vote, but FE = SC is wrong on so many levels.
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Moltar Status: Disappointed, I lost my perfect bracket.
Metal Gear vs. Fire Emblem - Bracket: MG - Vote: MG (18/20)
transience | Posted 7/19/2006 9:15:53 PM | message detail
wow, FE is holding at 30% too. for a contest with such predictable winners, percentages are far from.
---
xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 9:16:00 PM | message detail
INCREASE!

Man. It needs to get over 70% sometime.

---
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/19/2006 9:16:25 PM | message detail
Sigurd >>>> Snake
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Mustache...and green...
cyko | Posted 7/19/2006 9:16:41 PM | message detail
cyko needs to be shot.

XD

you're just jealous because Joshua would sneak up behind Snake and slice him seven times before he hit the ground.

---
"In America, first you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women...." - Homer Simpson
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/19/2006 9:17:04 PM | message detail
This was actually MG's best time against Soul Calibur. Then again, the same went for Fire Emblem and Silent Hill.

---
Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
LeonhartForever | Posted 7/19/2006 9:17:10 PM | message detail
As I mentioned before, including an entire series dramatically increases the likelihood of overlap, which is why percentages are skewed and hard to predict.
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SC2K6 Nominations: Squall, Roxas, Serge, Seifer, Laguna, The Prince of Persia, Nightmare, Sub-Zero, Captain Falcon, Raiden
MnMZero | Posted 7/19/2006 9:17:19 PM | message detail
I forgot a new match was actually happening

GameFAQs presence = dwindling
---
*Is therealmnm*
Proud Supporter of Mega Man X in Best. Series. Ever. Contest
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/19/2006 9:17:47 PM | message detail
Wow, MG will probably get the day vote, but FE = SC is wrong on so many levels.

But it feels so right.
---
When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
xp1337 | Posted 7/19/2006 9:17:53 PM | message detail
ACTIVATE 70% BARRIER!

...Wait, are % barriers legal?
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SpC2k6 (19/20) MG v FE
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 9:18:02 PM | message detail
Looking at FE I still can't believe how hard it tanked at night against frigging Silent Hill. MG will probably gain more there than it did against SC, but FE is likely stronger in the day than SC and MG/SC was the only thing that looked like we had a day vote in the first place (because day voters have no taste). FE will probably end up significantly higher than SC.
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
Slowflake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:18:04 PM | message detail
If it weren't for Echoes, Pokémon would've won!! Okay, so let me live in my little delusional world. Seriously though, if it weren't for Echoes, I would have definitely voted for Pokémon, and probably for Zelda next round as well.

By the way, the whole shebang around who got to do part 316 makes me think, there's one stat that has never ever been compiled. I'll be back to you in a while with that.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 9:18:25 PM | message detail
Some FE loser sneak up on Solid Snake? The Solid Snake? You know not of what you speak! No one sneaks up on Snake nor does anyone slice him up. He's got 1337 dodging skillz.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
Lopen | Posted 7/19/2006 9:18:41 PM | message detail
You've failed me! This is Metal Gear weakness, right here.

Castlevania > Metal Gear! Believe it!
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Raiden is still [!!] nominations short!
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=27664244
Slowflake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:19:02 PM | message detail
Aw, crud. Can't compile it for the time being.
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/19/2006 9:19:23 PM | message detail
you're just jealous because Joshua would sneak up behind Snake and slice him seven times before he hit the ground.

*Joshua slowly sneaks up on Snake, who doesn't even budge. He gets close enough and SLICES HIS HEAD OFF!*

*Or what he thought was Snake's head. Turns out it was just a cardboard cutout. Unfortunately for Joshua, he failed to notice the cardboard box that he had walked past*

SNAP!
---
"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
transience | Posted 7/19/2006 9:19:29 PM | message detail
(because day voters have no taste)

how's that MGS tasting!!!
---
xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 9:20:13 PM | message detail
I just set myself up for these things nowadays!
---
Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
transience | Posted 7/19/2006 9:20:20 PM | message detail
heh, under 69%. interesting match.
---
xyzzy
I lost a sig bet to War13104. Yes, the same guy who had Kefka over Crono. FOR THE HORDE!
FastFalcon05 | Posted 7/19/2006 9:20:44 PM | message detail

By the way, the whole shebang around who got to do part 316 makes me think, there's one stat that has never ever been compiled. I'll be back to you in a while with that.


I've made zero, just for the record. I"ll claim one someday.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~ Old Klingon Proverb
creativename | Posted 7/19/2006 9:20:45 PM | message detail
Looking at FE I still can't believe how hard it tanked at night against frigging Silent Hill.

That wasn't surprising. Silent Hill is exactly the type of game you figure would be a night vote type. Survival horror or whatever. It wasn't for sure but this is what people figured before that match.

---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 9:20:45 PM | message detail
You've failed me! This is Metal Gear weakness, right here.

Lies. This is Nintendo fanboyism combined with Solid ****!!!

Fire Emblem is getting favor due to Marth look like a female! TJF!



METAL GEAR WENT DOWN AGAIN. This is the stupidest twenty minutes ever.

---
"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/19/2006 9:21:23 PM | message detail
If Castlevania beats Metal Gear, it would be one of the best upsets ever. I like MG more, but that would just be incredible.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/19/2006 9:21:48 PM | message detail
CV > MGS !!!

Okay not really, but that would be awesome on so many levels.
---
When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/19/2006 9:22:11 PM | message detail
25 seconds too late.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/19/2006 9:22:16 PM | message detail
Unless Castlevania beats Kingdom Hearts handily (I'm talking Ulti-style destruction here), I don't think it even comes close to beating Metal Gear.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted 7/19/2006 9:22:29 PM | message detail
No one better even think about jumping on that bandwagon.

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"Building the future and keeping the past alive are one in the same thing." -- Solid Snake
dragoontheguy | Posted 7/19/2006 9:22:55 PM | message detail
My post has more style though. Italics and all. What does yours have? Nothing! Foolish mortal...
---
When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right. ~ Victor Hugo
{WoT}~> Board 408
Ed Bellis | Posted 7/19/2006 9:23:02 PM | message detail
for a contest with such predictable winners, percentages are far from.

Fact. What the hell is this? Is Metal Gear really this weak? Fire Emblem > Soul Calibur? BAH GAWD?!?!?
---
This was Ed Bellis. Summer 2005 Fanfiction Project:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=28403845
Slowflake | Posted 7/19/2006 9:23:05 PM | message detail
For whatever reason, I figured MG overkilling SC would raise expectations far beyond what was doable. I'm satisfied with what I'm seeing. (Or not, considering my stance on Metal Gear.)
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Mario's not fun btw and only sells on nostalgia. I mean, you're just walking from one side of a level to the other at a tenth of Sonic's speed... -vego
Karma Hunter | Posted 7/19/2006 9:23:09 PM | message detail
METAL GEAR WENT DOWN AGAIN. This is the stupidest twenty minutes ever.

From where I'm standing, it went up over 300 votes!!

And the original MG series doubling FE feels pretty good from where I'm standing. Imagine what happens when MGS gets into the mix!
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Do not kill. Do not rape. Do not steal. These are principles which every man of every faith can embrace. These are codes of behavior.
RPGuy96 | Posted 7/19/2006 9:23:27 PM | message detail
*jumps on that bandwagon*

That would be cool, if only because Castlevania would be the least likely final four entrant ever.
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Mustache...and green...
THEJackSparrow | Posted 7/19/2006 9:23:40 PM | message detail
But if Fire Emblem outperforms Soul Calibur, you can drop my faith in Nightmare one more, and I'll even begin to say we actually SHOULD have taken Marth instead for the Nomination Rally.
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"...And then they made me their chief." - Captain Jack Sparrow
KamikazePotato | Posted 7/19/2006 9:23:47 PM | message detail
From dragoontheguy Posted 7/19/2006 9:22:55 PM
My post has more style though. Italics and all. What does yours have? Nothing! Foolish mortal...

Mine didn't use any acronyms. Plus it's longer.

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Angsty_Lou: Everything has a sexual connotation if you just look long and hard enough.
Theo72: U SED LONG AND HARD LOL
Menzeeto | Posted 7/19/2006 9:24:09 PM | message detail
Oh, I knew FE was going to lose, but I voted for it anyways. Not a, like, last ray of hope kinda thing, bur more like I'm just showing my support. Unlike the last battle I actually respect both the titles.